It was an odd place to reach a breaking point. The run didn’t really matter. The play was probably smart in the long run. The player was not someone who in any real way comes across as lazy or entitled or soft. But on Saturday, when Dansby Swanson turned his face away from Tomás Nido’s mildly errant throw, allowing Logan O’Hoppe to score from third as the ball trickled away across the dirt, I found myself madder at the Chicago Cubs than I’ve been in at least thirteen years.
The Cubs became frustrating in 2018. They struggled early in 2017, but the World Series title was too fresh to allow real complaints, beating the Nationals the way it happened took guts, and losing to the Dodgers felt fair enough. In 2018, the frustration began. The franchise lost what had looked like to be an ironclad grip on the National League Central, and they did it through an offensive meltdown, a depressing version of baseball to watch. Still, it was hard to be too upset. Hiring Chili Davis may have been impermissibly stupid, but the braintrust and players had generated so much goodwill, and the team won 95 games. The anger had a limit, and the future still looked bright.
Over the next three years, the cast began to change, but this only elevated off-limits folk heroes to places of higher responsibility. It would take an asshole’s asshole to direct any spite Anthony Rizzo’s way. From there, it was on to this rebuild, and while last year became a disappointment in the end, the biggest mistake the Cubs made was establishing unreasonable expectations through what I’ve guessed was a ticket sale-conscious round of preseason press. That error was anonymous, and the team nearly backed up the talk.
2012 through 2014 were hopeful. 2015 was a joy. 2016 was cathartic. 2017 was a victory lap. 2018 through 2021 were forgivable. 2022 and 2023 were hopeful again. Here we are, thirteen years after the Cubs hired Theo Epstein, and the gloves are finally off. It’s a new feeling, distrusting the decisionmakers. It’s a new feeling, disliking the efforts of individual players.
In practicality, the Cubs’ season ended on Saturday. There are three months left to play, and there’s plenty of time for postmortems ahead of us. But Saturday was when it ended, with the series win yesterday only a tiny consolation prize.
They’ll point out their playoff odds are still large enough to see, and they are, and I’d be happy to be proven wrong. But those playoff odds—in the neighborhood of 1-in-15 before games began today—are coming from simulations where the Cubs have three more months, not three more weeks. We know the front office will behave prudently, and we know how this clubhouse will respond when they do.
They’ll also point out they have better baseball within them, and we’d be happy to see it. But the fact we keep not seeing it is kind of the point. On Friday, the team rallied behind Justin Steele, sending him out for that ninth inning to the biggest roar Wrigley Field has heard this season. On Saturday, adversity hit, and the team did what it’s done all season. It turned its face from the contact and let the season trickle away across the dirt.
Again, plenty of postmortems from here, and we would really, really love to be proven wrong. But by now, the odds are realistically insurmountable. It’s over, and we’re angry.
Games:
- Tuesday, 5:35 PM CDT: Cubs at Baltimore (Marquee)
- Wednesday, 5:35 PM CDT: Cubs at Baltimore (Marquee)
- Thursday, 5:35 PM CDT: Cubs at Baltimore (Marquee/MLB Network)
The Cubs haven’t announced their pitching plans yet, but it would seem straightforward for Shōta Imanaga, Jameson Taillon, and Justin Steele to start in order, each pitching on five days of rest. The Orioles are going with Dean Kremer, Corbin Burnes, and Albert Suárez, one of whom is Corbin Burnes and the other two of which keep outperforming expectations. The Orioles’ strength lies in their hitting. They also have one of the best pitchers in baseball.
Moves/Injuries/News/Speculation:
- Hunter Bigge’s up from Iowa to replace Colten Brewer after the latter broke his hand punching a wall on Saturday. Bigge has great numbers this season closing at Triple-A, but they come over eleven appearances. He could be a useful piece, and most relievers are capable of a nice hot stretch. But most relievers are capable of a nice hot stretch, and that might be all the recent run in Des Moines has been.
- Why did Kyle Hendricks start on Saturday if his back was hurt? Hopefully he doesn’t need to visit the IL.
- Yency Almonte is headed for season-ending shoulder surgery. He has one more offseason of arbitration eligibility. I would imagine the Cubs pick up the price tag, because he’s flashed enough over his career to warrant it, but it will depend on context.
- Shōta Imanaga is the Cubs’ all-star representative. Great for him. A big bright spot. We’ll maintain that the Cubs should pursue a bona fide ace this offseason if they aren’t certain they’re about to develop one. Rest of season projections from FanGraphs have Imanaga the 24th-most productive pitcher in the majors, Steele 35th, and Jameson Taillon 89th. Taillon would be a good fourth or fifth starter. Steele and Imanaga would be great second and third arms.
- One more note about the future: Nico Hoerner is reportedly drawing trade interest, and I would really hope the Cubs don’t move him. They’re not that far from contention, and he’s so valuable, especially because Swanson’s defense should fall off soon as he gets into his 30’s. Hoerner—only 27—is more than strong enough to slide into that role. He might be a league-average bat, but league-average bats are valuable at shortstop. That’s exactly what Swanson was for the 2021 Braves. All of that leaves out the personality part of the conversation too, where my perception, for what it’s worth, is that Hoerner has a better makeup than anyone else on the roster. He might not have the edge the Cubs actively need, but he has a quiet toughness that’s worth a lot on a team which continues to wilt under pressure. I would rather see Justin Steele traded than Nico Hoerner.
Garrett Crochet’s Chances of Starting the All-Star Game
On the South Side, Garrett Crochet’s all-star moment has come, and good for him. He’s pitched through a lot of noise. He’s one of eight starting pitchers on the initial AL all-star roster. Of the other seven, one (Logan Gilbert) is likely to pitch on Sunday and another (Seth Lugo) probably starts on Saturday, leaving Crochet, Tarik Skubal, Tanner Houck, Cole Ragans, Corbin Burnes, and Tyler Anderson as options to take the mound to start the game.
At the moment, Skubal leads that group in bWAR, averaged bWAR/fWAR, and Cy Young odds. Skubal would only be pitching on three days of rest, but he’s in the sweet spot where 1) he’s experienced enough to be trusted when asked if he can pitch and 2) he’s on a bad enough team that he isn’t putting a playoff appearance at risk if he goes. After Skubal, Burnes is the most decorated of the group, and he pitches for the best team. He’d be going on plenty of rest, too. So, it’s probably going to be one of that pair, and not Crochet. But Crochet does lead by fWAR, for whatever that’s worth.
Games:
- Monday, 7:10 PM CDT: White Sox vs. Minnesota (NBC Sports Chicago)
- Tuesday, 7:10 PM CDT: White Sox vs. Minnesota (NBC Sports Chicago)
- Wednesday, 1:10 PM CDT: White Sox vs. Minnesota (NBC Sports Chicago)
Erick Fedde pitches tomorrow, which should be the highlight for the Sox.
Moves/Injuries/News/Speculation:
- Steven Wilson is going down to the minors in exchange for Jordan Leasure. A good old-fashioned bullpen swap.
Another Angel Reese Record
I think this is the real one. I don’t think there are any other double-double streak records left to break.
Yesterday, Angel Reese notched her 13th straight double-double, breaking Candace Parker’s 2009–10 record. This follows setting the rookie streak record and the single-season streak record. Next on the list is the single-season rookie record, which is 22, set by Tina Charles in 2010. Of course, Caitlin Clark turned in the first ever triple-double by an WNBA rookie on Saturday, so there’s that subplot as well, but Reese has yet to manage more than five assists in a game. Reese is a double-doubler. That’s her game.
The Sky split their series in Seattle, with Chennedy Carter dropping 33 on Friday and Reese hitting four free throws in the final twenty seconds after the Storm twice cut it within two. They’re still right on the edge of playoff position, sitting in eighth place at 8–12 at the season’s halfway mark.
Games:
- Wednesday, 11:00 AM CDT: Sky vs. Atlanta (Marquee)
- Thursday, 6:00 PM CDT: Sky at New York (Prime Video, WCIU)
The Liberty still lead the league, and the Dream are only one game back of the Sky in the standings right now. So, Wednesday’s is the big one. Thursday will probably go badly, and that’s ok if the Sky win Wednesday.
DeMar DeRozan: King
With all said and done, the Bulls managed to turn DeMar DeRozan’s free agency departure into Chris Duarte, two second-round picks, and some cash. It was technically a three-team deal, but with the Spurs moving DeVonte’ Graham’s cap hit to the Hornets, it was effectively a four-team trade. Nowhere near the six-team Klay Thompson sign-and-trade, but the involved parties did their best. The NBA is so funny.
First: Good for DeMar DeRozan, and best wishes to him. That guy was awesome to have around. Hopefully it works out well. When the Kings have been good lately, they’ve been easy to like, and DeRozan should only help that. There are questions about on-court fit, and those are justified, but we certainly hope it works.
Second: What to make of this on the Bulls’ side?
DeMar DeRozan had the control here, and that means the Bulls didn’t have much leverage, if any. Duarte and two second-round picks, then, isn’t a bad return. Duarte’s 27—he was drafted old, having played junior college ball before his two years at Oregon—but he had a solid rookie year, and there’s still some potential there. At the very least, he’s a serviceable player, and in the worst case scenario, he’s only in Chicago for a year.
The only remaining question here is whether the Bulls’ unwillingness to eat salary was related to potential upcoming Zach LaVine and Nikola Vučević moves, or if the Bulls were just being cheap. Either way, hopefully those trades happen, and happen soon. Close the door on this era. Build some sort of new identity, even if that identity is “team built mostly of seventh and eighth men with unclear upside.” That would be better than the present construction.
Artyom Levshunov: IceHog
The Blackhawks signed second overall pick Artyom Levshunov to his entry-level contract this weekend, closing the book on his decision between remaining in college and going pro. The previous word was that he’ll probably spend most of this coming season in Rockford, as will a lot of Blackhawks prospects, with so many lanes on the NHL roster intentionally clogged. If this younger crop finds NHL success in a few years, the IceHogs are going to become a big part of the story. Good for Rockford.
Is This the Week the Bears Re-Sign Yannick Ngakoue?
Might be!
Ngakoue’s starting to be linked to other teams, but that’s probably partly a function of how much NFL media there is and how little fodder it has right now. The Bears still need a little more on the defensive line, and he still fits the bill. Twelve days ‘til training camp really begins.
