Off the Lake: Last Year’s Cubs Surge Was Weirder Than a Win Streak

The Cubs are trying to keep their playoff hopes alive, but they’re facing a strong-armed Diamondbacks team that’s gotten hot.

Sound familiar?

The biggest legacy of last year’s Cubs surge–turned–collapse might be that it messed up all of our senses of what’s normal in baseball. Last year’s Cubs entered this weekend five games under .500 and promptly lost that series opener to the Cardinals. That was the game where Yan Gomes managed to hit two triples. It was after that loss that the Cubs—aided by some bad Ron Kulpa with Alec Burleson at the plate—started beating the Cardinals and White Sox, ultimately winning eight in a row before coming down to earth the last two days before the deadline.

I mention Gomes’s two triples because a lot of very weird things happened in that eleven-game stretch. Gomes hit the two triples. Burleson suffered the missed calls. The Cubs came back three times in a Saturday game aided by multiple rain delays. Ian Happ managed to knock both Willson Contreras and Miles Mikolas out of a series opener with one single reckless backswing. Mike Tauchman and Seiya Suzuki robbed what would have been a crucial pair of home runs. It was a weird week and a half even without the Cubs pulling an eight-game winning streak out of virtually nowhere. That’s a good reminder of just how weird those eight games were.

A 7–2 record over the next nine—the number needed to enter deadline week above .500—isn’t impossible. It’s not all that abnormal a result. But it would be a big surprise. If last year’s Cubs conditioned this year’s Cubs to believe it’s possible or even likely, that’s great. Confidence is an asset. But no matter what the Cubs themselves think, and no matter what happened twelve months ago, what happened last year is not actually an indicator of what will happen this year. That’s mostly bad. The Cubs’ situation is bleak. But in one narrow way, it’s good. The Diamondbacks sure were kryptonite last year.

Games:

• Friday, 1:20 PM CDT: Cubs vs. Arizona (Marquee/MLB Network)
• Saturday, 6:15 PM CDT: Cubs vs. Arizona (FOX)
• Sunday, 1:20 PM CDT: Cubs vs. Arizona (Marquee)

After losing ten of eleven series openers, the Cubs have won three straight, which is probably meaningless but looms as noteworthy given today’s matchup. Ryne Nelson has been pitching well lately, and his FIP and xERA have outpaced his ERA for a while, but he’s still no Zac Gallen or Brandon Pfaadt, the guys Kyle Hendricks and Shōta Imanaga will oppose tomorrow and Sunday.

I’m a little surprised Jameson Taillon isn’t getting one of these starts instead of Hendricks. I’ve been a little out of the loop this week, so it’s possible I’ve missed something. Is it about staggering the reliable starters to keep the bullpen rested?

Whatever the explanation to that situation, today’s the big one. Justin Steele against Nelson, with an early start coming out of the All-Star Break. Get the win.

(I will add: One thing that made last year’s win streak plausible was the Cubs playing a pair of disintegrating teams. None of the next three teams on this year’s schedule are in active meltdown.)

Scoreboard-watching:

The Cubs need to catch six of these seven teams…

• The Mets, who visit the Marlins this weekend.
• The Cardinals, who visit the Braves.
• The Diamondbacks, who are at Wrigley.
• The Padres, who visit the Guardians.
• The Giants, who visit the Rockies.
• The Pirates, who host the Phillies.
• The Reds, who visit the Nationals.

It’s nice that six of the seven are playing on the road. I don’t know that it’s better or worse that none of the seven are playing one another, but it does make the best-case scenario better. The Giants and Reds are the closest to the Cubs in the standings, but the Padres, Diamondbacks, and Pirates are all within a weekend series.

Moves/Injuries/News/Speculation:

• Tauchman’s back, earlier than anticipated. Alexander Canario returns to Triple-A in the corresponding move. It’s natural to be cautious regarding Tauchman excitement. He’s still coming back from a long absence, and guys who outperform their natural expectations are hard to count on. He has, though, consistently been an above-average hitter since coming up for the Cubs last year, and I’d offer that he’s probably one of the better “mindset” guys on the roster for a stretch like this.
• The Cubs fired Seiya Suzuki’s interpreter right after it was announced that the Cubs will open next season in Tokyo against the Dodgers. These developments aren’t connected, but they’re related, in that the Cubs have been trying to establish themselves as a comfortable destination for Japanese talent. Was the translator firing done at Suzuki’s request? Was it done with Suzuki’s input? How does Suzuki feel about it? You’d imagine the Cubs wouldn’t want to do anything Suzuki didn’t like, but some reporting held that the decision was partly related to Cubs coaches struggling to connect with Suzuki.
• On Tuesday, the Cubs bought Jesus Tinoco from the Royals, moving Jordan Wicks to the 60-day IL and demoting Daniel Palencia to make roster room. Tinoco is below replacement level over his career, but he hasn’t yet hit 100 MLB innings. Don’t expect him to stick around long, but who knows with relievers.

Miscellany

We’ll catch back up on the other five Chicago teams on Monday, but a few notes:

• The White Sox, who visit Kansas City this weekend (Garrett Crochet isn’t scheduled to start until Tuesday), started their roster tumult a little early. The Sox designated Danny Mendick and Martín Maldonado for assignment, replacing them with Nick Senzel, acquired from brief free agency, and Chuckie Robinson, a 29-year-old with 60 career plate appearances. They’ve also sent Lenyn Sosa down to Triple-A, calling up Brooks Baldwin in his place.
• Great win on Tuesday for the Sky over the Aces before the long All-Star/Olympic break. Chennedy Carter has become a force. No Sky on the Olympic team, but Angel Reese will be a major focus in tomorrow night’s All-Star Game. Sorry to do the Clark/Reese thing, but this is her first time playing alongside Caitlin Clark, right?
• Two Summer League games remain for the Bulls, and there isn’t a whole lot of note there besides what we can garner from glimpses of Matas Buzelis. Joe Cowley did report earlier this week that a source expects the locker room to get worse without DeMar DeRozan running interference between Billy Donovan and Zach LaVine, so that’s good.
• Caleb Williams finally signed his rookie deal, after reportedly attempting to secure a no-franchise tag clause and reportedly trying some funky approaches to avoid paying taxes. Neither effort was successful, but what a great nod to Chicago history. Al Capone, tip your hat. Rome Odunze also signed, leaving defensive line depth the only question as the full roster reports to training camp today.