Since July 7th, Miguel Amaya’s lone appearance amidst his now-storied swing remodel, the Cubs catcher has hit better than 90% of his fellow major league hitters.* The list of those he trails is full of MVP candidates (Aaron Judge, Bobby Witt Jr., Francisco Lindor). The list of those he leads is full of other MVP candidates (Shohei Ohtani, Elly De La Cruz). Among catchers, he trails only Tyler Stephenson, and Stephenson he trails by only one percentage point. It’s a small sample, but given the inflection point, might it be meaningful?
Amaya has long been a risky prospect. On FanGraphs, he peaked inside the top 75 in the game, but that was in early 2020, before doubts around his power set in and before Covid and Tommy John surgery combined to hold him to 60 games over three years. At his best, Amaya was a top prospect by default, a crown jewel only because there weren’t many better Cub prospects to whom we could give attention. By the time he debuted, the higher end of hopes had him sticking around as a backup.
Catching is difficult. It’s a grueling position. Not very many people are good at it. If you treat Amaya’s 441-PA career as one season, though, he ranks right around the starting catcher median.** This is better than being a league-average catcher. This is being a league-average first-string catcher.
So…yes? It might be meaningful?
At this point, this recent hot stretch constitutes nearly a quarter of Amaya’s career. If all goes as expected, it’ll reach that mark this week. It’s a small sample, but the whole sample is small.
Pitchers will inevitably figure this recent Amaya out. It’s fair to wonder, since his season was going so badly and a lot of pitchers changed staffs at the deadline, if coaches haven’t set about rebuilding their approach to him yet, prioritizing onboarding new additions and attacking Seiya Suzuki instead. But the fact Amaya successfully adjusted has recalibrated expectations. Earlier this month, the New York Times was running articles about how the Cubs would need to fully replace Amaya this offseason. That still might not be a bad idea. A backup of Amaya’s quality would be a strong player to have on the active roster. But it’s no longer the necessity it previously appeared to be.
Yes, it’s a small sample. But again, the overall sample is really small as well. Even without considering the inflection point, it might be meaningful.
*Out of the 257 batters with 90 or more PA’s over that stretch, Amaya has the 24th-best wRC+.
**By fWAR, over a three-year sample of catcher seasons with more than 400 PA’s.
News/injuries/moves/speculation:
- The Cubs picked up relief pitcher Gavin Hollowell off of waivers on Friday, a move which resulted in David Bote being designated for assignment again and Luis Vazquez returning to the MLB clubhouse. It’s always sad to see Bote go, but his payday continues. Hollowell is currently in the minor leagues.
Games:
- Monday, 5:40 PM CDT: Cubs at Pittsburgh (Marquee)
- Tuesday, 5:40 PM CDT: Cubs at Pittsburgh (Marquee)
- Wednesday, 11:35 AM CDT: Cubs at Pittsburgh (Marquee/MLB Network)
Wednesday’s the tough one. On Wednesday, the Cubs face Paul Skenes in an early-afternoon game. Who’s pitching for the Cubs in that one? Kyle Hendricks.
That isn’t an automatic loss by any stretch. Those don’t really exist. But it’s going to be tough, and that makes winning tonight an even bigger deal. The Cubs’ struggles in series openers haven’t afflicted them as much these last few weeks, and Jameson Taillon should give the visitors a chance. But Mitch Keller is tough, and indications point to Jared Jones returning tomorrow to start against Justin Steele. It’s a tough series, and with the Braves playing well again, this could be the week which finally pushes the Cubs’ playoff odds down under 1-in-100. We’re not giving up ourselves, but the chances are worse than 1-in-40 right now by our best available source. Yesterday was a big game to lose.
*Wilt Chamberlain 100 Photo Except It’s Jerry Reinsdorf*
Congratulations to the White Sox. Can they get to 120??
News/injuries/moves/speculation:
- Jimmy Lambert finally had shoulder surgery last week, closing the book on his zero-inning 2024 season. Yoán Moncada and Michael Soroka, though, are starting rehab assignments. Moncada could provide a little bit of hope for next year, but only if the White Sox are considering opting into his 2025 deal. Conventional wisdom says that isn’t the case, with Moncada only meeting the $20M value of the decision in one of the previous three seasons ($25M option, $5 opt-out).
- The Sox DFA’d Nick Senzel for assignment today, grabbing recent Marlins prospect Jacob Amaya off waivers from the Astros. Amaya won’t report to the White Sox right away, and he might stick at Triple-A for the time being. Bryan Ramos is up with the big-league club.
- Sammy Peralta is also reportedly up with the big-league club, with Ky Bush sent down. It’s unclear who will take Bush’s spot in the rotation.
Games:
- Monday, 7:10 PM CDT: White Sox vs. Detroit (NBC Sports Chicago)
- Tuesday, 7:10 PM CDT: White Sox vs. Texas (NBC Sports Chicago)
- Wednesday, 7:10 PM CDT: White Sox vs. Texas (NBC Sports Chicago)
- Thursday, 1:10 PM CDT: White Sox vs. Texas (NBC Sports Chicago/MLB Network)
The Tigers series wraps up tonight, with Davis Martin facing a debuting Ty Madden. Tomorrow, Garrett Crochet faces Andrew Heaney in the series opener with the Rangers.
Are the Bears Done Making Moves?
On Friday, the Bears bolstered their defensive line, trading a sixth-round pick for Darrell Taylor, an edge rusher who becomes one of a few possible eventual complements to Montez Sweat. On Saturday, they went out and got Chris Williams from the Browns for the same price, improving their depth at defensive tackle.
An acquisition on the interior of the line wasn’t as expected as one at defensive end. Zacch Pickens’s injury status is unknown, but it seems possible concerns about his health incentivized the Williams push. Still, a move like the one which acquired Taylor was expected, and now eyes turn to the other side of the trenches. The Bears are going to add an offensive lineman, right?
Final cuts are ongoing around the league, so these next few days should bring the resolution. We’re guessing they do add someone. Mostly because we don’t see any reason not to. So far, Ryan Poles has almost entirely avoided doing the dumb thing. Contention is unlikely this year, so there’s no need to go land a star, but protecting Caleb Williams while he develops is important. The unit needs more depth.
News/injuries/moves/speculation:
- A lot of cuts, but none have been unexpected so far. Douglas Coleman III was among them, but that was likely to be the case even before his injury. The happy news there is that he traveled home from Kansas City. Good luck to the guy.
- Patrick Scales hasn’t practiced in three weeks, and long snapper is a tough position for an injury. Keep an eye on that. Besides him, Pickens, and Ryan Bates, Kevin Byard is evidently an injury issue, and Jaquan Brisker is also labeled with the dreaded red Q over at ESPN. We should get clarity on those situations this week as well, especially if the injuries are significant enough for the IR to come into play. Short version? Stay tuned.
Sky Fall
The Sky made both games interesting, but after a pair of two-point losses to the Sun and Aces, they’re only half a game up on Atlanta for the final playoff spot. Eleven games left.
Angel Reese did pull down 20 boards on Friday and 22 more yesterday. On the heels of a third 20-rebound performance, this makes her the first WNBA player in history with three straight 20-board games. In fact, Friday made her the first WNBA player ever to notch 20 boards on back-to-back outings. Unfortunately, four of yesterday’s rebounds came on the same possession. The finishing touch still isn’t there.
Games:
- Wednesday, 7:00 PM CDT: Sky vs. Mystics (Marquee)
The Mystics are only a game up on last place. Good opportunity to break the little losing streak.
The Young Core
We talked on Friday about The Holdovers, the first group of players on the Bulls’ 2024–25 roster. Today, we’re on to the Young Core.
Despite Dalen Terry being a first round pick, and despite us liking Dalen Terry, we aren’t including Dalen Terry in this mix. Terry is not exactly established just yet. The list instead looks like this:
- Coby White (24 years old, signed through spring 2026)
- Josh Giddey (21 years old, RFA after this year)
- Patrick Williams (23 years old, signed through spring 2028)
- Jalen Smith (24 years old, signed through spring 2027)
- Ayo Dosunmu (24 years old, signed through spring 2026)
- Matas Buzelis (19 years old, signed through spring 2028)
Core might not be the best word here, holding unnecessarily optimistic connotations for some. But we didn’t know a better phrase for the young, established Bulls. These six are part of the plan. These six will spend a lot of time on the court this year. If necessary, these six could lead the Bulls through the 2024–25 season. It would be a bad team, but it might be kind of fun.
The nice thing about these six is that they’re all easy enough to like. They’re also easy to be optimistic about. Giddey was an underwhelming return for Alex Caruso, but he comes with upside. We aren’t particularly big fans of Williams’s contract, but that isn’t his fault, and at least for right now it isn’t holding the Bulls back from much. Maybe we’ll be gnashing our teeth over it next summer. Maybe we’ll be praising the decision. Either way, that’s the only real concern with the group. Overall, it’s six young players it’s easy to see becoming strong long-term pros. Exchange Vučević and LaVine for two more guys like this, and this looks like a roster Billy Donovan can work with.
Ultimately, the goal for these six is not to win basketball games alone. The goal is to be good enough to soon form a strong supporting cast for a legitimate star. None of the six needs to be a top-25 player. But if four of the six can become top-100 guys, the Bulls will have something.
News/injuries/moves/speculation:
- Nikola Vučević gave an interview in Slovenia this weekend at Goran Dragić’s farewell game. Honestly, not a lot to take away from it. He pointed to Lonzo Ball’s injury as a bad thing that happened to the Bulls and lamented the constant trade chatter. That’s all fair.
Blackhawks: November
We also talked on Friday about the Blackhawks’ October slate. Today, it’s on to November. Twelve games:
- Friday, November 2nd: Blackhawks at Los Angeles
- Friday, November 3rd: Blackhawks at Anaheim
- Wednesday, November 6th: Blackhawks vs. Detroit
- Thursday, November 7th: Blackhawks at Dallas
- Sunday, November 10th: Blackhawks vs. Minnesota
- Thursday, November 14th: Blackhawks at Seattle
- Saturday, November 16th: Blackhawks at Vancouver
- Tuesday, November 19th: Blackhawks vs. Anaheim
- Thursday, November 21st: Blackhawks vs. Florida
- Saturday, November 23rd: Blackhawks at Philadelphia
- Wednesday, November 27th: Blackhawks vs. Dallas
- Friday, November 29th: Blackhawks at Minnesota
Two West Coast road trips (including the completion of a swing which begins in Colorado and San Jose). The first two meetings with the Wild. A Patrick Kane return to the United Center. The second and third meetings with the Stars, with the third on the night before Thanksgiving, setting up a rowdy atmosphere on Madison Street.
It’s a fun month!
How’s it going to go?
Using our great/good/mediocre/bad categorization, the setup is as follows:
- Away: One great opponent, three good, two mediocre, one bad
- Home: Two great opponents, one good, one mediocre, one bad
Overall, this brings the Hawks up to fourteen road games and nine home games to open the year. Can they get out November on a point-per-game pace?
Sweeping the Ducks would be nice. You can’t count on that, but it’s a good goal. From there, it gets tougher. Say the Blackhawks beat the Red Wings in Chicago and get two points combined from the games against the Kraken and Flyers. That still leaves them with only eight points from the five easier opponents of the twelve. They’ll probably need to beat the Wild once, then find a way to steal two more points from the reigning champion Panthers, two West Coast teams favored to make the playoffs, and the co-favorites in the Central. At least they get the Stars twice.
Hockey is random enough to not lend itself perfectly well to this kind of point-counting. Unlike baseball, it isn’t played in series, something which makes it easier to prognosticate realistically. But there’s still some value in identifying the good opportunities and accepting the bad ones.
News/injuries/moves/speculation:
- Ben Pope reported today that Kevin Korchinski will probably start the year in Rockford. The blue line is deep at the NHL level, and after a big challenge his rookie year, the front office might be ready to give Korchinski a more developmental environment.
