It was a good week for the Cubs. On five of the six days games were played, the Cubs went to bed happy. The sixth, of course, was a debacle, with the Cubs not only managing to lose twice in one day but offering callback jokes to some of their most infuriating losses of the first half. Hayden Wesneski’s two errors boggled the mind in the early game. Troubles with runners in scoring position set the stage for the bullpen to give out in primetime.
A 5–2 week against the Orioles and Cardinals, on the road? Good stuff. Not good enough stuff, given the hole that was dug, but good stuff.
Why not good enough? The split in St. Louis leaves the Cubs again in this boat where they need to sweep at least one opponent over the rest of the month. That’s what’s necessary to enter trade deadline week above .500, and in worse news, entering the deadline week above .500 is no longer looking as promising as it once did. Here’s how the week went for every other team on the Wild Card bubble:
| Place | Team | Record | Last Week |
| 5 | St. Louis | 50–46 | 2–4 |
| 6 | New York | 49–46 | 5–1 |
| 7 | Arizona | 49–48 | 4–3 |
| 8 | San Diego | 50–49 | 1–4 |
| 9 | Pittsburgh | 48–48 | 5–1 |
| T-10 | Cincinnati | 47–50 | 5–2 |
| T-10 | San Francisco | 47–50 | 3–3 |
| 12 | Chicago | 47–51 | 5–2 |
The Cubs were one of the four best teams last week in an eight-team race. 5–2 is good. It is also merely a top-half result.
A lot of what happened was schedule, and there’ll be plenty of that breaking the Cubs’ way over the last six or seven weeks of the season. But the Cubs are in a short-term situation. These next two weeks are what matters. Decisions must be made two weeks from today on what to prioritize over the final two months. Those decisions will send a message to a clubhouse that still draws plenty of questions related to backbone and focus. The Cubs went 5–2. That was only good enough to enter the break in 12th place. Ten days ago, we thought there’d be seven NL teams above .500 at the deadline. Now, eight looks likelier. The competition is deep, and all of the Cardinals, Mets, Diamondbacks, and Padres would have higher Vegas win–loss totals than the Cubs if the season started again today.
Which brings us to Jed Hoyer, the man who must make the moves.
It’s too early to discuss Jed Hoyer’s job security in and of itself. That can wait until September, when it’s likeliest Tom Ricketts and his brain trust will make the decision. What’s impactful here is what Jed Hoyer thinks of his own job security.
Our impression of how the Cubs operate, from Hoyer and Ricketts and Theo Epstein interviews over the years, is that Ricketts gives the baseball operations team a budget, and that from there, Ricketts doesn’t give a lot of input. There have been a few indications otherwise—the Cubs’ retreat from big contracts has always seemed tied to Jason Heyward remorse, and Ricketts reportedly made a comment to some bleacher regulars a few years back about the beauty of compensatory draft picks—but the system seems to be that Ricketts tells the front office how much money they have, and the front office goes and does their thing.
This is a good system. This is the best way to run a baseball team. This is also the part of the job that Hoyer’s team has done well. They’ve consistently hit on A-minus free agents. They’ve built a young roster with payroll flexibility. They’ve constructed one of the best farm systems in the game. The Cubs’ failings under Epstein and Hoyer appear more tied to coaching personnel than player personnel, and to the extent questions exist about the latter, they have more to do with culture than talent and dollars and cents.
At this point, though, the setup becomes awkward. In an organization with a more involved owner, the owner might look at the standings, look at the product on the field, and send the order to sell. I don’t think Ricketts is particularly inclined to do that.
Which brings us, at last, to Jed Hoyer’s perception of Jed Hoyer’s job security.
If Hoyer thinks his job is safe, then his interests continue to align with those of the Cubs. He’s still trying to make the team the best it can be over the next five or six years. If Hoyer doesn’t think his job is safe, those interests no longer align. If Hoyer doesn’t think his job is safe, and if Hoyer specifically thinks that he needs to make the playoffs to retain his own seat and those of his lieutenants, the prospect capital no longer matters a whole lot to Jed Hoyer.
Maybe you remember last year, when the Angels went all-in on a doomed mission to get to the playoffs with Shohei Ohtani still in Anaheim. The decision was praised at the time as fun and pilloried in the aftermath as stupid, but it wasn’t a stupid decision. If the Angels couldn’t retain Shohei Ohtani in the offseason, the Angels were fucked either way. Making the playoffs, miraculous though it might have been, could have un-fucked the Angels. If Hoyer feels insecure in his job, his incentive is to make these playoffs no matter what it costs. Danny Jansen? Cub. Carlos Estevez? Cub. Garrett Crochet? Cub. Matt Shaw? It was nice having you around, man.
Unlike the Angels’ situation last year, buying wantonly would be a bad decision for this year’s Cubs. Shaw for Garrett Crochet would be a good deal, but Carlos Estevez is not worth Kevin Alcántara. There is, though, an angle where aggression might make sense given the farm system the Cubs already have.
The torturous aspect of the Cubs’ farm system, no matter how well Pete Crow-Armstrong hit yesterday, is that it is a strength–in–numbers unit. It has a lot of good prospects. It does not have any great ones. FanGraphs loves Cubs minor leaguers, and even FanGraphs doesn’t have a Cub minor leaguer ranked among the top 30 prospects in baseball. PCA is 20th, but PCA is not a minor leaguer, and 20th is still not spectacular. Thirteen organizations have a better best prospect, per a sympathetic outlet, than the Chicago Cubs.
There’s no Kris Bryant, then, to trade away. There might be a great player in there—maybe Cade Horton wins a Cy Young in three years for the White Sox and the people who love to blast Hoyer for not being aggressive get to blast Hoyer for being too aggressive—but there isn’t a great prospect. The Cubs have a lot of good options, and in some cases, those options are becoming redundant. This is partly the point. As Brennen Davis tragically reminds us, there is nothing certain about Alcántara or Owen Caissie, so having both of them as high-potential options diversifies the risk. But given the Cubs’ development struggles at the big league level, it might be time to take a big swing. Whether Hoyer agrees or disagrees has a lot to do with what he thinks Tom Ricketts thinks. It’s in Ricketts’s best interests, then, to make Hoyer think he’s safe no matter what.
Moves/Injuries/News/Speculation:
- Holy heck were there a lot of moves around the doubleheader. Javier Assad is back from the IL. Luke Little is onto the IL. Ethan Roberts and Hunter Bigge ended the weekend back in Triple-A. Daniel Palencia ends the weekend back at the MLB level.
- The MLB Draft is underway, and with the Cubs’ first two picks they took a pair of corner infield bats. Cam Smith, from Florida State. Cole Mathis, from College of Charleston. Brett Taylor had a good writeup on them a couple hours ago. We no longer talk enough about the Cape Cod League.
- Even with injuries, Shōta Imanaga remains the Cubs’ only all-star. I’m curious if we’ll see him pitch, especially because of how cautious the Cubs have been with his usage. He won’t approach a full start’s worth of workload, but it wouldn’t be surprising at all to see the Cubs give him at least four days of full rest following the festivities. That would leave him starting on Sunday against Arizona. It also wouldn’t be surprising to see the Cubs give him a fifth day, lining him up to start the Milwaukee series. Do that, and they could start Steele/Taillon/Hendricks against the D-Backs followed by Imanaga/Assad/Steele against the Brewers. Then? Can’t project beyond then. Injuries are too common to tempt fate.
- I don’t think the Cubs are going to win the division, because they are in last place and I don’t think they’re going to finish .500, but the Brewers’ hold has slipped, even with the Cardinals one of the worse NL performers last week. The Crew has lost three series in a row, and in that “what would their Vegas win total be if the season started today” metric,* they’d be in the bottom half of the majors. The rest of the division would be there too (lol), but the point is that the Brewers have overperformed so far this year, and the NL Central still has its natural messiness inside it somewhere. The dream of an 80-win division champion remains on the table.
*I always say “on-paper” for this, but I don’t think that makes intuitive sense. We, as a language, need better words for describing the projected performance of MLB rosters.
Condolences to Hagen Smith
The White Sox drafted Hagen Smith fifth overall last night in what was likely a shrewd move. The team is so far from any sort of contention that they should absolutely draft the best prospect available, and there’s reason to believe that prospect was Smith.
Would JJ Wetherholt have been a better pickup? Maybe, but it was at least debatable, and having dodged Nick Madrigal’s bullet, it’s hard to fault the White Sox for being scared of weak hamstrings.
What happened to Jac Caglianone? I think part of the Caglianone experience is that he’s not as good a prospect as he was a college player. That’s not a slight. He was just awesome in college. The guy was a dog who hit bombs and threw 99 mph. That is a great skillset, but two-way players are so hard to develop into two-way major leaguers, which means Caglianone is in reality a power guy with contact questions who happens to have a relief pitching fallback option. A reverse Rick Ankiel? Whatever comp you use, Caglianone’s name was bigger than his draft stock, and credit to the White Sox for not making the popular move.
Anyway, apologies to Hagen Smith, who is now employed by Jerry Reinsdorf. Imagine if military drafts worked this way. “Sorry, bud. You just got drafted by Putin. Unclear if he wants to win, but he’s definitely willing to let you die.”
Moves/Injuries/News/Speculation:
- The report (maybe an outright statement by the time you read this) is that Corbin Burnes will start the All-Star Game, which is fair. Corbin Burnes is deserving. Garrett Crochet would have also been deserving, but Burnes is a better long-run pitcher and Burnes is a bigger star.
- The White Sox are getting some preemptive shit for setting an outrageous price on Crochet, but why wouldn’t they do this? They’ve also gotten shit for pulling him early in his last start, and why wouldn’t they do that? The White Sox’ duty right now, to themselves and to Garrett Crochet, is to maximize his trade value. The deadline is more than two weeks away, and a good inning in the All-Star Game would definitely appeal in at least a marginal way to other front offices. It’s a disadvantage that the three loudest teams in the rumors—the Padres, Yankees, and Dodgers—are all rather smart, but the White Sox’ job is to drive the price as high as possible and eliminate as much risk as they can.
- Michael Soroka hurt his shoulder, a joint which presented issues for him in 2018, 2019, and 2023. (He tore both his Achilles between 2019 and 2023, so we don’t know what the shoulder would have done in 2020, 2021, or 2022.) Hopefully it turns out to be nothing, but it sure feels sad. He was so good in 2019. He was so, so good in 2019. And we weren’t even calling him by his preferred name! Very Braves to make a big Canadian guy go by Mike instead of Michael.
The Double-Double Streak Is Over
This is probably good, because it was getting farcical, but Angel Reese’s double-double streak is over. The Liberty said they would not play that game and held Reese to eight points.
After Saturday’s loss, the Sky are still in playoff position, two games up on Atlanta for the eighth and final spot. 17 games remain, which is a lot of time, but a two-game lead isn’t nothing.
Games:
- Tuesday, 9:00 PM CDT: Sky at Las Vegas (Prime Video/Marquee)
- Thursday, 7:00 PM CDT: Sky vs. Mercury (Prime Video/Marquee)
The Aces are one of the good teams. The Mercury are one of the medium teams, there with the Fever and the Sky. (The Dream have fallen off. Seven straight losses. By the way: I love that the WNBA color codes the “Last 10” column in their standings. Not only have the Dream lost nine of ten, but that is a PROBLEM.)
So Matas Buzelis Is Cool
You may have seen Matas Buzelis’s dunk from last night’s Summer League game. If you didn’t, here’s Matas Buzelis’s dunk from last night’s Summer League game. I haven’t watched much of the action, but from what I’ve seen, Buzelis plays with a ton of energy and wants to do a lot. So much confidence. That’s kind of an issue—his shooting results were terrible last year on the G-League Ignite, and he hasn’t shot the ball well so far in Las Vegas—but his shot doesn’t look bad. So, there’s potential for him to figure that piece out. It’s fair to be high on him. Go ahead and be excited about something, Bulls fans.
Two more Bulls things:
Artūras Karnišovas said he expects Zach LaVine to start training camp with the Bulls and generally spoke highly of him in comments made yesterday. It’s hard to put too much stock in this, because this is exactly what you would say if you were trying to reanchor doomed trade negotiations, but it does seem like LaVine is going to start training camp with the Bulls. Reportedly, nobody wants his contract, and the Bulls don’t want to do a full salary dump, and that is the proper approach by all parties.
The thing about Zach LaVine is that the Bulls have been so bad recently with him on the court that keeping him might help the tanking effort. I know that’s disrespectful, and I know LaVine’s better than that, and I know having DeRozan out of there opens up possessions for a possession-hungry guy. But the Zach LaVine Bulls have been dysfunctional. There are a lot of “The Bulls aren’t tanking hard enough” takes regarding LaVine, and those takes are wrong. His presence is probably bad for development, but the results might be worse with him than without him. Plus, we could be heading for a situation where he won’t play, given how mad Rich Paul seems to be at the Bulls and how content LaVine seems like he would be sitting out. The situation is a disaster. Which is bad in the real world, but good in the framework where draft picks are destiny.
The other thing is that Taj Gibson is a Hornet now, further delaying his jersey retirement. (I’m kidding about the jersey retirement, but how funny would it be if Tom Thibodeau personally retired Gibson’s jersey? What if Tom Thibodeau refused to coach another player wearing 22 or 67?)
How Good Would Caleb Williams Have Been in CFB 24?
Imagine a timeline where EA Sports brought back the college football video game one year earlier. Would Caleb Williams have been the greatest video game quarterback of all time? Coming off a Heisman season, even better arm attributes than leg attributes…he would have been something else.
This isn’t a meaningful indicator of Williams in the real world, of course. Pat White didn’t have much of an NFL career. But video games do kind of point to a player’s ceiling, and the ceiling we’ve seen from Williams so far, at least reputationally, is outrageous. That’s the piece of the Caleb Williams story that’s so mind-blowing: He was underwhelming in his final college season. But he’d set his stock so high that he was the no-brainer number one pick anyway, and he held that status the whole time. It’s like if a baseball player hit .225 over the second half of the season and still won the batting title.
Rookies arrive to camp tomorrow. I don’t really know how a holdout situation would work, and I don’t expect one, but I suppose it’s possible, given Williams hasn’t signed his contract (neither has Rome Odunze). Williams doesn’t have a certified agent, and I wonder if that’s helping him here. I wonder if certified agents have deep enough relationships with teams that they don’t want to mess those up over the fickle little details which are the only things rookies can negotiate under the CBA. I wonder if Williams’s lawyers are looking at the situation, seeing they have all the leverage, and driving the Bears to the situation’s obvious conclusion—Williams getting every concession allowable under the rules.
Luke Richardson and the Hot Seat
Unless there was a stealth edit, Scott Powers’s column Friday for the New York Times did not mention the phrase “hot seat” regarding Luke Richardson. Powers said, more or less, This is the first time Luke Richardson is coaching an NHL roster, so we’re going to finally start to learn whether he’s good at it. From what I saw, Blackhawks circles took that as saying, HOT SEAT??????
Richardson is not on the hot seat, per se. But NHL teams, like their MLB and NBA cousins, do seem to view rebuild coaching as a different skillset than championship coaching. This is the correct way to view it. The NFL drawing the line after the tank instead of after the rebuild is a silly informal practice. What does it mean for Richardson? His job is still to develop Connor Bedard and the young pieces coming up around him. But as Powers points out, Richardson’s secondary job is to coach good hockey. Those two jobs are linked. The priority is the first, but Richardson’s long-term future does depend in some way on the second.
