Say you ran an MLB franchise, and say you had two capable shortstops currently rostered at your major league level. We’ll call them Player A and Player B. Say you asked your analytics department to bring you WAR projections* for the next five years for each of these players, in the event you made either your full-time shortstop. Say those lackeys came back with this:
| Year | Player A | Player B |
| 2025 | 4.1 | 3.3 |
| 2026 | 4.1 | 2.8 |
| 2027 | 4.1 | 2.3 |
| 2028 | 3.6 | 1.8 |
| 2029 | 3.1 | 1.3 |
Neither player’s projections are Hall of Fame-worthy. These are contributing role player numbers, not the superstar contributions you’d want from a franchise cornerstone. Still, you’d prefer Player A to Player B. In every single season, Player A is the better option, and this accelerates towards the end of the timeframe. Over the course of the five years, you get 7.5 more wins with Player A.
These are some very back-of-the-envelope projections. (Methodology below.) But, they’re roughly representative of the numeric expectations for Nico Hoerner and Dansby Swanson over the remainder of Swanson’s contract. Hoerner is Player A. Swanson is Player B. Nico Hoerner would probably be a better option at shortstop than Dansby Swanson next year. Because the Cubs are tied to Swanson, though, they might trade Hoerner over the next nine days.
Hoerner’s name is by no means everywhere in trade discussions. It’s been more present in speculation than rumors, and it isn’t running rampant around the speculatory blogosphere. The Cubs could very well keep Nico Hoerner, and they’d be wise to do so, with their early extension agreement keeping him rostered at a great price for two entire seasons after this one. More on this below,* but these projections are probably underselling Hoerner. If the Cubs want to win the NL Central next year, it’s hard to see a better way to pursue that goal than with Nico Hoerner in the lineup every day.
In that undersell, though, we encounter a wrinkle. The reason those numbers might be underselling Hoerner is that they’re treating Hoerner’s value at shortstop as being identical to his value at second base. This isn’t actually the case. Hoerner isn’t as valuable at second base as he is at shortstop. Good bats are harder to find at short than at second, thanks to shortstop being the more demanding defensive position. The Cubs have their shortstop for these next five years—more on this in a minute—and other teams don’t. Nico Hoerner is the Cubs’ second baseman. He could be another team’s shortstop. He could be more valuable to that other team.
Barter economies began when sellers traded assets to buyers who had a shortage of that asset. One Sumerian had two shortstops. Another had two young pitchers. Civilization began with the Cubs trading Nico Hoerner to a contender who’s weak up the middle.
Overall, the Cubs have three options here:
- Option A: Trade Nico Hoerner. Most likely suffer at second base or shortstop these next two years because of it, but make a smart trade and acquire seismic value in return for two years and two months of this good, generously priced baseball player.
- Option B: Keep Nico Hoerner, and keep the middle infield tandem intact.
- Option C: Keep Nico Hoerner, and begin preparations to move him to shortstop once Swanson either 1) isn’t as strong defensively as Hoerner, because he’s going to age sooner or 2) isn’t hitting well enough to be in the lineup every day.
Option C is the dicey one. How would Swanson take an eventual demotion to second base, and potentially to a platoon role? Would such a move damage the Cubs’ chances at future marquee veteran free agents? The success of Option C depends a lot on a variable we, the public, know little about: Swanson’s ego.
Swanson is not a bad baseball player. He’s nothing close to that. The man’s had a terrible year at the plate, but his glove is good, he’s encountered bad luck on balls in play, and he’s been a reliable presence in a lot of very good lineups over his career, continuing to lend credence to the leadership theory which made the Cubs fond of him. If Nico Hoerner weren’t around and the Cubs wanted to stick with Swanson at shortstop, it would be fair and understandable. The problem isn’t that Swanson is bad.
The problem also isn’t Swanson’s contract. If these projections hold up, the Cubs will have overpaid for Swanson by something like five million dollars a year. Have you seen what they’re paying Drew Smyly? As long as Swanson didn’t get himself cursed, the contract still looks just fine in the long run.
The problem isn’t even that Hoerner’s better than Swanson. If this were as simple as that, the solution would be clear: Pursue Option C. Prepare for a world where Swanson’s in a platoon role. Start working on extending Hoerner, and at the very least prepare for contention attempts in 2025 and 2026 with him in the lineup every day.
The problem is how committed the Cubs are to Swanson.
The Cubs knew they weren’t getting Trea Turner when they signed Dansby Swanson. They didn’t act like they were. They couldn’t be confident in Hoerner to stay healthy, they definitely couldn’t be confident in Nick Madrigal becoming a serviceable everyday second baseman, and they probably wanted to appease some fans. They brought in a big name at a fine price. It invigorated the situation, and the Cubs were much better for it last year. It wasn’t a bad decision in December of 2022 to commit to Dansby Swanson. It would, however, be a bad decision now to prioritize that commitment over steering into the first-round pick they’ve helped turn into one of the better middle infielders in the league.
If the Cubs do trade Hoerner, there will be three possible explanations:
- Explanation 1: They’re skeptical of Hoerner to a degree outsiders have no reason to be. They value Hoerner less than the market does. They’re selling a stock when it’s high.
- Explanation 2: They don’t really believe they’ll contend in 2025 or 2026, and they don’t want to enter a situation where they have to overpay Hoerner to keep him from 2027 onwards. Hoerner might be good, but they don’t see him winning a World Series in Chicago, so they’d rather get him out now while the getting’s good.
- Explanation 3: The Cubs feel themselves beholden to Dansby Swanson.
This is why we mentioned Swanson’s ego earlier. How would Swanson take an eventual demotion? If he’d accept it and continue his production at the same rate, then the decision to keep Hoerner is a no-brainer. If he’d sulk or complain or even put on the right attitude but internally struggle, it’s a tougher conversation. In some ways, Swanson is a sunk cost. His contract is what it is, and aside from a few weird fringe scenarios, he’ll be on the Cubs’ books through 2029. In others, though, there’s still a relationship there which does need to be maintained. Even forgetting the “treating a previous free agent well will lead others to sign in Chicago” narrative (which is almost always overblown), the Cubs do need a happy Swanson. They’re paying him too much money to not contribute some solid level of production these next five years and two months.
Where does this leave us? The Cubs might be in a situation where because they committed to Dansby Swanson, they feel the need to trade a better player away. That is about the worst way this trade deadline could go.
News/Injuries/Moves/Speculation:
- The Jameson Taillon trade rumors are getting smoky, with Bob Nightengale reporting the Red Sox and Yankees have both been in touch with the Cubs about the starter. Taillon’s under contract through 2026, but he’s past 30 on the aging curve, and while he’s been a relief of a presence in this year’s rotation, he doesn’t have a lot of room to age gracefully. He’s a good sell-high candidate, and the Cubs do seem to potentially be fattening him up for a trade. I’m not sure why else he’d slot in to start after Javier Assad this week rather than before him. The appearance is that the Cubs want Taillon to only make one more start before the trade deadline really gets moving.
- Jon Morosi reported yesterday that the Reds are ready to sell. Not counting the Cubs, that brings the NL seller count to…four. Five, if you include the Cubs (the New York Times did report today that the Cubs expect to sell, which we probably could have intuited). It is a seller’s market.
- Luke Little’s injury is a lat strain, and he’s probably done for the year. Tough break for the guy.
- Hayden Wesneski is onto the IL with a forearm strain, which is highly concerning. Hunter Bigge briefly replaced him on the MLB roster, but Julian Merryweather’s back tonight, so Bigge’s back down. Nice to see Merryweather return. Don’t expect too much—never expect too much from a relief pitcher—but the upside is great.
Games:
- Monday, 7:05 PM CDT: Cubs vs. Milwaukee (Marquee)
- Tuesday, 7:05 PM CDT: Cubs vs. Milwaukee (Marquee)
- Wednesday, 1:20 PM CDT: Cubs vs. Milwaukee (Marquee)
Will the Cubs let the Brewers be the ones to twist the knife? It’s Assad vs. Tobias Myers in Game 1; Taillon vs. Colin Rea in Game 2; and Justin Steele vs. TBD in Game 3. All winnable, but that’s the problem with the Brewers. It’s always winnable on paper. It’s harder on the field.
*Methodology: For both sets of projections, I extrapolated the player’s rest-of-season projection from FanGraphs’s Depth Charts over a 150-game sample, then subtracted half a win per year after the age of 30, in line with the traditional aging curve. You can’t do this with Hoerner without some caveats, so here are those caveats: Even though Hoerner’s rest-of-season projection has him playing second base, we’re comfortable using it as a shortstop projection. Why? He proved he can play the position well during the 2022 season, and his bat should be more valuable at short, where good hitters who can at least field competently are harder to come by than at second base. Hoerner should, if anything, be more valuable at shortstop than he is at his current position.
Erick Fedde: Welcome to the Rumor Mill
In addition to Garrett Crochet, Erick Fedde’s likely to move at the deadline. Credit to the White Sox for landing him this offseason. That one was shrewd. Between those two, Tommy Pham, and maybe Luis Robert Jr., the Sox have some good assets to sell. Unfortunately, this does circle back to highlighting how bad the rest of the roster is. A couple pieces every contender wants, and the team’s still lost ten more games than anyone else in the league.
News/Injuries/Moves/Speculation:
- Michael Soroka and Jordan Leasure are both onto the IL. Sammy Peralta and Steven Wilson are up to take their places.
Games:
- Monday, 7:05 PM CDT: White Sox @ Texas (NBC Sports Chicago)
- Tuesday, 7:05 PM CDT: White Sox @ Texas (NBC Sports Chicago)
- Wednesday, 7:05 PM CDT: White Sox @ Texas (NBC Sports Chicago)
- Thursday, 1:35 PM CDT: White Sox @ Texas (NBC Sports Chicago)
Fedde and Crochet start the first two games. Last White Sox outing for one or both? They’d be in line to start Saturday and Sunday. The deadline comes before next Tuesday night’s games.
How to Sell in the WNBA
First off: Yes, Angel Reese posted a double-double in the WNBA All-Star Game. Great All-Star Game. Really captured the WNBA’s themes this year. It was like a highlight reel of all the WNBA season’s greatest moments. Which I guess is what every all-star game should be? The WNBA All-Star Game has officially entered its prime.
Now: The Marina Mabrey trade.
The odd thing about this deal is that the Sky are in playoff contention. If the Sky were actively bad, it would make sense to sell off a player like Mabrey in exchange for the first-round draft pick like the one they’re getting (in addition to other assets). Instead, they’re mediocre, which in the WNBA translates to a playoff appearance but probably an ass-kicking. The trade’s great for the Sky, but it does illustrate the foolishness of the current playoff size. I suppose expansion will help lower the playoff/non-playoff ratio.
Does a New Offense Favor the Offense?
In light of Shane Waldron’s first year in Chicago, here’s a question I don’t know the answer to:
Do first-year offensive coordinators succeed?
Obviously, eventually the good ones make it work. Every offensive coordinator was at some point a first-year offensive coordinator. But I’m curious whether a brand-new offense favors the offense or the defense. Does the learning curve outweigh defenses not having anything on tape? Or is it vice versa?
My impression is that it favors the offense in a major way. The NFL cycle seems to be that offenses advance and defenses then catch up. But there’s also the question, of course, of whether it’s different with a first-year quarterback. Waldron isn’t coming into a situation where everyone’s used to working together.
Moves:
- Kiran Amegadjie opened camp on the Non-Football Injury list, which wasn’t a huge surprise but does contradict some earlier statements from the Bears. The list’s name is a bit of a misnomer—Amegadjie tore his quad midway through in his college season, it just wasn’t an injury suffered with the Bears—but the effect is the same. He’s still recovering. Probably only a little bit longer.
- The Bears signed linebacker Javin White, who spent 2022 training camp in Lake Forest as well. They also activated Gerald Everett and Jamree Kromah after short stays on the NFI and PUP lists.
DJ Steward Could Be Fun
DJ Steward tore up Summer League, and as a result, he’s now got a two-way deal with the Bulls. Is DJ Steward going to change the future of the Bulls? No. But an image of a decently fun 2024–25 is coming together: Zach LaVine and Nikola Vučević sit to preserve Vučević’s trade value and open up touches for players with futures with the Bulls. Matas Buzelis challenges for Rookie of the Year against a weak class. Billy Donovan starts getting bench contributions from a guy who graduated from Whitney Young.
The Bulls don’t have to be good to be fun. It’s been their adjacency to good that’s made them so unfun these last few years.
The IceHogs and the Calder Cup
Speaking of things that could be fun, the IceHogs are going to be loaded with prospects next year. To the brim and bursting. What I don’t know is whether that translates to a good AHL team. How much more or less do the AHL veterans matter? The AHL is a fascinating mystery.
