That was the way that Cubs/Pirates game had to end. Two storied franchises duking it out until one dropped a popup.
It was a fun game, with that fun comeback in the middle and a good bounce back after flubbing all the things up in the ninth.
Some notes:
- The home runs by Rafael Ortega and Ian Happ were, of course, huge. Ortega, like many Cubs experiencing breakouts, has an xwOBA far below his wOBA, so keep that in mind if the Cubs decide to, you know, cut him this offseason. Still, even his xwOBA’s been better than that of Happ, Jason Heyward, or…ok actually it’s three points worse than that of Nico Hoerner. That makes me feel a little better about Hoerner. Anyway: Ortega’s still got a lot to prove, and it’s a shame that he and Happ are both better against righties, because they’d otherwise be set up to be a pretty good platoon option in center.
- Happ’s now at an 88 wRC+, getting closer and closer to average again. His hot stretch is now a 132-PA sample, and he’s got a 130 wRC+ over that sample. Barring a big slump from here, I’d be really surprised if the Cubs moved on from him this offseason. Of him, Ortega, Patrick Wisdom, and Frank Schwindel, Happ still might have the strongest projections entering next season.
- Sergio Alcántara had three hits, and is actually slightly above replacement-level right now, but his 70 wRC+ really isn’t much. With David Bote back next year, I’d expect us to not see any more Alcántara on the Cubs’ major league roster after 2021 (best of luck, though—he was fun).
- Since I’m already going down this path, if I had to project right now I’d project Madrigal/Hoerner/Heyward/Happ/Wisdom/Schwindel/Bote/Ortega to all be kept, with three more spots open for non-catcher position players on the Opening Day roster. I’d hope two of those spots would be filled by starters. I do wonder, like so many, what Michael Hermosillo could do with more plate appearances. He’s only 26. Sucks that his options are up, but I guess the Cubs wouldn’t have him if they weren’t.
- Adrian Sampson was great again, and Scott Effross had an awesome outing. Rowan Wick and Codi Heuer were also impressive, even if Wick technically “blew the save.” I’d like to see Sampson get a lot of innings down the stretch. If the Cubs are doing a lot of piggyback rides next year, something we campaigned for yesterday, Sampson might be an interesting part of the lottery. Lot more to prove, though.
- Rough outing for Keegan Thompson, who’s at a 5.12 FIP and a 5.50 xERA over 48.1 innings at the big-league level this year. I like David Ross pulling him before it could get worse. Tough that he wasn’t able to get stretched out fully before coming up.
***
The Diaspora:
Andrew Chafin had another strong outing for the A’s and is up to 1.3 fWAR. It looks like he’s going to be making a lot more than $2.75 million next year, and good for him on that. Jorge Soler homered again for Atlanta.
Around the Division:
The Cardinals have to play the Brewers this weekend while the Reds host the Tigers as each tries to beat out the Phillies (who play at Miami) and the Padres (who host the Astros) for that last playoff spot. Atlanta’s in that mix too now, and they Brett Anderson’s on the IL with a shoulder contusion after getting hit by a Brandon Crawford line drive the other night.
Up Next:
More Pirates.
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Whom:
Cubs vs. Pittsburgh
When:
1:20 PM Chicago Time
Where:
Wrigley Field
Weather:
Temperatures in the 70’s, wind blowing across and out towards left at about ten miles per hour.
Starting Pitchers:
Alec Mills vs. Steven Brault
The Opponent:
Brault’s only made five starts this year, but he’s always been a decent enough arm for the Pirates, with a career FIP of 4.64 over 105 appearances, 50 of them as the starter. Not a big strikeout guy, has his walk issues, but not bad enough at either to be bad overall.
The Numbers:
The Cubs are -135 favorites with the Pirates at +115, for an implied Cubs win probability of 55%. The over/under’s at 8½ and leans towards the over at the moment.
Cubs News:
Did you remember the Cubs don’t have a general manager? I forget that sometimes. They’re reportedly going to start interviewing candidates soon. Matt Duffy (don’t worry I’m not going to call Matt Duffy a GM candidate; although now that you mention it…) played after Wednesday’s scratch. Frank Schwindel won the National League’s Rookie of the Month award for August. The Cubs are making all non-player employees get vaccinated (can’t make players get vaccinated unless the union agrees).
Cubs Thoughts:
You know I love me some Alec Mills.
Really, though, I don’t think the winning’s a bad thing. Having players good enough to win right now is more valuable than marginally higher draft selections next summer, and it also makes the cost of giving up one or more of those selections by signing a free agent tied to a qualifying offer marginally lower. I’m #TeamWin. Hell, get back to .500. Let’s get nuts (*sees that the twelve games after this Pirates set are all against playoff contenders, walks away*).
