With no playoff games yesterday or today, we’re asking a question:
Who’ve been the most valuable players this October? It’s a question with multiple right answers. One way to answer it is to look at who’s played the best. fWAR. bWAR. This is fair. It’s largely independent of situation, tied instead to raw production. Another way to answer, though, is to look at who moved the needle the most. That’s the one we’re looking at today.
We’ll look at both WPA (Win Probability Added) and cWPA (Championship Probability Added), using Baseball Reference for both.
First, WPA. The players who’ve swung the needle the most (in a positive direction) as measured by individual games:
| Rank | Player | Team | Win Probability Added |
| 1 | Eddie Rosario | ATL | 1.18 |
| 2 | Tyler Matzek | ATL | 0.95 |
| 3 | Chris Taylor | LA | 0.92 |
| 4 | Cody Bellinger | LA | 0.89 |
| 5 | Yordan Alvarez | HOU | 0.80 |
| 6 | Nick Pivetta | BOS | 0.76 |
| 7 | Austin Riley | ATL | 0.69 |
| 8 | Garrett Whitlock | BOS | 0.64 |
| 9 | Logan Webb | SF | 0.59 |
| 10 | Jose Altuve | HOU | 0.56 |
Now, cWPA. The players who’ve changed their team’s championship probability the most:
| Rank | Player | Team | Championship Probability Added |
| 1 | Eddie Rosario | ATL | 0.20 |
| 2 | Cody Bellinger | LA | 0.16 |
| 3 | Yordan Alvarez | HOU | 0.16 |
| 4 | Tyler Matzek | ATL | 0.16 |
| 5 | Austin Riley | ATL | 0.11 |
| 6 | Nick Pivetta | BOS | 0.10 |
| 7 | Chris Taylor | LA | 0.10 |
| 8 | J.D. Martinez | BOS | 0.08 |
| 9 | Garrett Whitlock | BOS | 0.08 |
| 10 | Jose Altuve | HOU | 0.08 |
The lists are similar by nature, partially because each game is so important for the championship, partially because we’re not yet to the stage of the playoffs where individual plays can swing championship probability by ten or fifteen percent (or more, should the World Series go seven games). The same name is at the top. The top seven is shuffled a bit, but the same. Even within the top ten, there’s just one swap. But the overall messages are also striking:
First, Eddie Rosario has been as impactful as it’s seemed. More than a win better than expected performance in situations he’s been dealt.
Second, the Dodgers really missed out behind Bellinger and Taylor. Just not enough production elsewhere.
Third, holy heck was Logan Webb good.
Fourth, Nick Pivetta! What a postseason from that man, and this doesn’t much take into account his bullpen-saving outing in Game 1 of the ALDS.
And fifth, Garrett Whitlock: Even allowing the home run in Game 4 of the ALCS, he makes the cut for his performances against the Rays and, earlier in the series, the Astros. Take away that home run, and not only might the Red Sox still be playing but Whitlock might have cracked the top five, given he’d also potentially have had the chance to perform in Game 7.
Again, this isn’t exactly who’s played the best (though that list too would be similar). It’s who’s made the biggest impact. So far. With hopefully seven more great games to go.
