We’ve learned some things about college football during this pandemic, and one of those—which is apt to remember as rumors swirl about some wild Pac-12 rescheduling today—is that the sport can be flexible when it wants to be. Is it fair to assume that there will be four teams in the playoff and that the semifinals will take place New Year’s Day. It is also unreasonable to believe these things certain.
With that established, assuming only four teams do make the playoff (again, don’t rule out a last-minute expansion, these guys can do anything they want), things are pretty straightforward right now:
- If Alabama wins out, they’ll be in.
- If Ohio State wins out and plays enough games to satisfy the ecosystem, they’ll be in.
- If Clemson wins out, beating Notre Dame in a rematch, they’ll be in, barring seismic shifts from precedent.
- If Notre Dame wins out, they’ll be in.
- There are anywhere from a handful to a dozen teams with legitimate hopes of claiming the fourth spot, and all of them now have to consider the impact of cancellations as well as the impact of games themselves, but we’re used to the uncertainty with these kinds of teams and we’ll learn a lot more when the first CFP Rankings are released in a week and a half, so things aren’t really that unusual in that regard.
So with that, let’s move on to the game that matters, and the games that might.
The Game that Matters
Notre Dame @ Boston College (Saturday, 3:30 PM EST, ABC)
There’s only one game that we know matters this week, and it’s Notre Dame’s visit to Boston College. Win, and the Irish will enter their scheduled post-Thanksgiving date in Chapel Hill still undefeated. Lose, and, well, not great for ND.
The Games that Might
East Carolina @ Cincinnati (Friday, 7:30 PM EST, ESPN2)
Western Carolina @ Liberty (Saturday, 12:00 PM EST, ESPNU)
Middle Tennessee State @ Marshall (Saturday, 12:00 PM EST, CBSSN)
BYU is off this week and Coastal Carolina’s game with Troy has been canceled, so only three of our effective Group of Five undefeated’s are playing. Of the five, only Cincinnati and BYU have much hope, but there’s the possibility of a last-man-standing effect coming into play, so keep an eye on the others.
We aren’t including Mountain West teams in here because they’ve only played three games and Boise State—the realistic one—lost. We aren’t including MAC teams in here because they’ve only played two games.
Miami @ Virginia Tech (Saturday, 12:00 PM EST, ESPN)
I guess you can include Miami in the picture, given their only loss came against Clemson. They’d need to win out and get a weird chain of events to break their way, but with no CFP Rankings out yet, it’s too early to write them off, and they’ve played enough games to bear mentioning.
Indiana @ Michigan State (Saturday, 12:00 PM EST, ABC)
Wisconsin @ Michigan (Saturday, 7:30 PM EST, ABC)
Northwestern @ Purdue (Saturday, 7:30 PM EST, BTN)
Yes, Indiana has yet to lose. Yes, Wisconsin looked great in their one game. The eye-opener here is Northwestern, who gets Wisconsin next week in Evanston and doesn’t have anyone else with a winning record scheduled. They’re a Big Ten West contender, which gets them on our radar. And they’ve got the defense to make most games interesting, especially with some personnel uncertainty in Madison following the outbreak.
For the Hoosiers, yes, Ohio State is waiting like a guillotine. For Wisconsin, yes, things could get tricky tomorrow night. The most simple Big Ten path is still Ohio State beating Wisconsin in Indianapolis, but things are tumultuous enough to keep an eye on the field.
Arkansas @ Florida (Saturday, 7:00 PM EST, ESPN)
The Gators are in control in the SEC East. Arkansas is feisty. Florida’s with the rest of these guys: On the fringes.
Oregon @ Washington State (Saturday, 7:00 PM EST, FOX)
Finally, your Pac-12 favorite. We’ll see what they can show of themselves.
