Notre Dame lost this weekend, and it was disappointing, because it was a game the Irish probably could have won. Four plays went catastrophically wrong (the three turnovers, that dropped pass in the fourth quarter). If any one of them hadn’t gone catastrophically wrong, Notre Dame might be marching towards another playoff berth. Instead, it’s almost certainly a playoff-less season, and with plenty still to play for, that’s a bit of a letdown.
How far we’ve come.
Over the last four seasons and the front half of this one, Notre Dame has lost nine games. In 2016 alone, Notre Dame lost eight. Even if this team finishes the year 9-4, a conservative mark, the last time Notre Dame lost twelve or fewer times over a five-year stretch was the Lou Holtz era.
As for these nine losses themselves:
- Two came against the eventual national champions (and came in the playoff).
- Two came against teams that played in the playoff but didn’t win the national championship.
- One came against a team that finished the season ranked 4th in the AP Poll.
- Three came against teams that finished their respective seasons ranked 20th or better in the AP Poll.
- The last one was this weekend’s to Cincinnati, whom it would seem has a good chance of at least finishing in that final bucket, the 20th-or-better bucket.
As for the “understandability” of the losses themselves:
- Only two—this Cincinnati one, the 2017 loss to Georgia—came at home.
- Of those that came against non-playoff teams, only the 2017 loss at Miami and the 2019 loss at Michigan were blowouts. Even in the 18-point loss to Stanford in 2017, the Irish led entering the fourth quarter.
Will Notre Dame get over this next hump, and get back to being a program that can win playoff games (or the historic equivalent)? I don’t know. Nobody knows for sure. There’s no guarantee on these things.
But progress has been made, and while there’s more left to make, this is better than the alternative.
Now, to win a New Year’s Six bowl.
Thanks for putting this in perspective!