1. This is a challenging road trip.
We knew the difficulty was coming. We didn’t know what would happen, but we knew the difficulty was coming. It’s here, it’s hard, the Cubs are in avoid-the-sweep mode, that off day on Thursday is looking mighty appetizing.
One thing to keep in mind here that we talked about a few weeks ago is that the Cubs had a seven or eight-hour shift in start times between most of their games over the end of that homestand and most of their games this weekend and this week. That’s a big shift, and while the Cubs shouldn’t complain about that themselves (can’t put that in your own head), we can acknowledge that it’s a layer of difficulty on top of playing two good teams in their own parks amidst a slew of injury troubles.
2. Let’s talk through the injuries.
Adbert Alzolay has a blister, which may or may not require him to miss a start. Kohl Stewart was sent down yesterday to make room for Jake Marisnick, so it would appear unlikely he’s the fifth starter. The Cubs do have that off day, and could conceivably go with Kyle Hendricks on Friday on normal rest, but they still need someone for Saturday if Alzolay can’t go (and you’d like Alzolay to get the benefit of that off day anyway), with it currently looking like it’ll maybe be Alec Mills?
Honestly, between Stewart, Mills, Jake Arrieta, and Trevor Williams, you’re probably not getting anyone you know will be better than anyone else in those fourth and fifth slots. The problem is that if Alzolay misses a start, that becomes the third, fourth, and fifth slots, and Hendricks isn’t at his best and Zach Davies isn’t near his best, and one would assume bullpens function better when they aren’t overworked (on a related note, Steve Cishek is two appearances off the pace for the league lead, pitching for Joe Maddon again in Anaheim).
3. Ok, that was just Alzolay. Let’s talk about Báez now too. And a couple others.
Javy Báez did end up missing last night’s game, but he was possibly going to be available off the bench, which is a good sign. You hope there isn’t something actually wrong in there that’s going to linger and hurt his performance, but that could be the case with everybody in baseball and we just might not know.
Joc Pederson did pinch hit, which was encouraging regarding his back. And having Marisnick back (and going two for four, albeit with a dink for one of those singles) is a big boost.
In an ideal world, you’d think the position player portion of the roster right now would look like this:
C – Willson Contreras
1B – Anthony Rizzo
2B – Nico Hoerner
SS – Javier Báez
3B – Patrick Wisdom/Matt Duffy
OF – Kris Bryant
OF – Ian Happ/Jason Heyward/Joc Pederson/Jake Marisnick
C – Austin Romine
2B/3B – David Bote
That’s the ideal. It gets P.J. Higgins back to AAA. It gets Eric Sogard off to someone who thinks they can help him get right with the bat. It loses Rafael Ortega, but you’re going to lose Rafael Ortega’s, and it possibly loses Sergio Alcántara (it’s unclear if he has an option or not, at least to me), but that brings us to a point of this, which is that you’re not going to get to this roster, in all likelihood. You’re going to have someone or someones hurt. As far as the pecking order for DFA’s goes, it seems right now that Ortega and Sogard are next on the chopping block at this very moment, with it maybe depending who exactly comes back first out of Duffy, Hoerner, and Bote, since Duffy and Hoerner have each played a little outfield this year.
Another point of this is that that’s a good roster. One should feel mildly confident about that roster. And right now, it’s only missing one and a half infielders and two backups. That’s not that much. The Cubs aren’t that banged up anymore.
4. Worry about the standings, but don’t worry about the standings.
On one hand, the Cubs’ position in the standings matters more than usual at this point in the year because buying vs. selling is such a question. On the other, it’s June 8th, the Cubs are only half a game back, and if the Cubs can hang within two games of the Brewers for the next not-quite-three weeks they’ll have it in their reasonable control to enter July within a game of first. The Brewers have it pretty easy, of course—seven against the Rockies, three against the Diamondbacks, three against the Pirates, six against the Reds—but if the Cubs end the month on that 90-win pace we’ve been eyeing (which requires them reasonably to just win one of these next two in San Diego), they’ll enter July in a fine place even if the Brewers do something like win 16 of their next 22. Honestly, it’s all close enough that the Reds could take five of six from the Brewers these next nine days and establish themselves as the Cubs’ biggest concern. So don’t get too scared about what the Brewers are doing.
***
Around the Division:
No one but the Cubs in action last night.
Standings, FanGraphs division championship probabilities:
1. Milwaukee: 33-26, 58.2%
2. Cubs: 33-27, 21.6%
3. St. Louis: 31-29, 9.4%
4. Cincinnati: 28-29, 10.8%
5. Pittsburgh: 23-35, 0.0%
Adrian Houser vs. Sonny Gray in Cincinnati tonight. Carlos Martínez welcomes Shane Bieber and Cleveland to St. Louis.
Up Next:
Game 2 (how is this only Game 2 the combination of being on the West Coast and playing the Padres last week makes this feel like Game 9)
***
Whom:
Cubs vs. San Diego
When:
9:10 PM Chicago Time
Where:
Petco Park
Weather:
Wind blowing slightly in and across from left at five to ten miles per hour. Temperatures in the 60’s. The divine light of angelic hosts gently shining down upon God’s favored city (speaking climatheologically).
Starting Pitchers:
Zach Davies vs. Dinelson Lamet
The Opponent:
Lamet pitched his best outing of the year against the Cubs last week as he works his way back to full strength, making it through four innings for the first time while facing a season-high 17 hitters and striking out a season-high six of those hitters. He’s good. He was among baseball’s best last year. One would also assume the entire San Diego bullpen is available. So that stinks.
It’s tough. It’s a tough matchup. Tomorrow’s even tougher. But such is contention. You don’t need to find a way to win one of them, but if you do, you can still feel pretty confident about yourselves as a team, having survived the road trip despite not thriving.
The Numbers:
The Cubs are +160 underdogs with the Padres at -175, which comes out to a little better than a 35% chance of winning. Not very good chance, that. Over/under’s at 8½ and leans towards the under at the moment.
Cubs News:
Mentioned this above, but Jake Marisnick returned last night, and Kohl Stewart was optioned to AAA.
Cubs Thoughts:
Wouldn’t be shocking if we saw a bullpen swap today between AAA and the MLB club, but at the same time, the five best options in the ‘pen are all well-rested. Going off of that, if the Cubs can get to Lamet for even one or two and Davies has them in it, it might be a good day for David Ross to throw everything he has at the Padres and go for broke. The Cubs are going to be a big, big underdog tomorrow.
