In the more notable series starting today, the Los Angeles Dodgers try to stop the Washington Nationals. The two had identical records from May 24th onward and can fairly be labeled the National League’s best two teams. For all their respective prowess, though, each has significant bullpen questions, which could make the series dramatic, and are already making it interesting. It begins tonight in California.
Here’s what to know:
How They Got Here
The Dodgers were the presumptive National League favorite entering the season and led in the standings pretty much from start to finish. They’re a titan, loaded with young talent and stocked with strong arms. Unfortunately, those arms are disproportionally allocated to the rotation, which could make things interesting late in games.
We wrote more about the Nationals on Tuesday, but they’re back again, having won a thriller of a Wild Card Game against the Brewers on Juan Soto’s bases-clearer in the eighth inning. The sparknotes on them are that they started the year with a lot of injuries, turned it on when they got everyone back healthy, but weren’t able to catch Atlanta and win the division, creating a lopsided National League bracket in which FanGraphs gives the winner of this Division Series a 65.8% chance of making the World Series.
Who’s Pitching
Tonight, it’s Walker Buehler (3.01 FIP) for the Dodgers opposing Patrick Corbin (3.49) for the Nationals. Corbin, a lefty, is the Nationals’ third option, put to use after Max Scherzer (2.45) threw 77 pitches and Stephen Strasburg (3.25) threw 34 in Tuesday’s victory over Milwaukee. But he’s a good third option—the 13th-best pitcher in the MLB this year by fWAR.
Buehler, a 25-year-old phenom, dominated in his last postseason start, tossing seven shutout innings in Game Three of the 2018 World Series while allowing just two hits and no walks. His success stems from great command, as he walks only 5.0% of opposing hitters, tenth among the 61 qualified pitchers in the MLB this regular season.
After Buehler, the Dodgers have indicated Clayton Kershaw (3.86) will start Game Two, Hyun-Jin Ryu (3.10) will start Game Three, and Rich Hill (4.10) will start Game Four if it proves necessary. Kershaw’s getting older, but he’s still one of the MLB’s better arms. Ryu’s had his healthiest year since 2013, and he successfully righted the ship after some end-of-August struggles to allow just three earned runs total in his last three starts, each of which lasted seven innings. Hill is still working his way back from forearm and knee struggles, but after contributing five combined scoreless innings over his last two starts, the Dodgers are at least saying they’re willing to pair him with some of their other starters, who will be found in the bullpen. Buehler’s the only right-handed starter lined up, with Kershaw, Ryu, and Hill all southpaws.
In the bullpen, Kenta Maeda (3.95), Dustin May (2.90), Ross Stripling (3.47), and Julio Urías (3.43) have all started at times this year, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see any go two, three, or more innings in an outing. Urías is the only lefty of the group.
The more conventional relievers on the staff are left-handed specialist Adam Kolarek (4.27) and righties Pedro Báez (3.52), Joe Kelly (3.78), and Kenley Jansen (3.48). The right-handed trio would be assumed to be the final line in protecting victories, but each of the three has struggled at times this season. Báez has probably been the most consistent of the group, but his six blown saves are lodged in Dodgers fans’ memories. While that number is tied for the 12th-most in the MLB, his strong FIP is a better indicator of his ability than the rather arbitrary metric of blown saves. Kelly had a 7.59 ERA through the tenth of June, but his 4.90 FIP portended positive regression, and he was dominant for a good stretch following that turnaround. Unfortunately for the Dodgers, his health is suspect: he’s missed a decent amount of time since September began with an unspecified “ailment.” What the ailment is, is a mystery, but it’s notable that Kelly was throwing two or three mph slower than normal during his six-pitch outing on Sunday. It seems likely he’s not pitching at full strength. Jansen’s no longer the pitcher he was from 2010-2017, but a team could do worse for a closer, no matter the opinions of certain boo-birds recently.
Overall, the Dodgers’ “bullpen struggles” aren’t really that notable and are probably more a matter of being the only perceived flaw on a very strong team. The Nationals, on the other hand…but we covered that on Tuesday.
It’s likely we’ll see Strasburg in Game Two tomorrow. It’s also possible that if the Nationals win tonight, they’ll opt to give Strasburg plenty of rest before starting Game Three back East, instead putting fellow right-hander Aníbal Sánchez (4.44) out there against Ryu. If Sánchez does start tomorrow, it will mean Scherzer is lined up to pitch a potential Game Four. If Strasburg is the guy, Scherzer’s in line for Game Three, which opens up the possibility of Corbin pitching on three days of rest in Game Four with Strasburg the hypothetical Game Five man. Scherzer’s outing was not very good on Tuesday, and he only posted a 3.75 FIP in regular season starts after returning from his back injury. But he’s still Max Scherzer, and a 3.75 FIP is better than even that of Kershaw.
If Sánchez doesn’t start in the series, it helps the Washington bullpen, which needs some help. Beyond the veteran-heavy crew the Nationals rostered for Tuesday’s game, they’ve added right-handers Wander Suero (3.07) and Austin Voth (3.79), the latter of whom has mostly pitched as a starter. Suero and Voth strengthen the group, but it’s still a crew dicey enough to warrant considering using Strasburg in relief tonight if there’s a slim lead to protect. It would be interesting to know if this is being treated as a reasonable option, and whether Strasburg feels fresh enough after those 34 high-leverage pitches.
The Hitters
Each team’s lineup for tonight has been announced, and they are as follows, with regular season wRC+’s in parentheses:
Nationals:
SS: Trea Turner (117)
RF: Adam Eaton (107)
3B: Anthony Rendon (154)
LF: Soto (142)
1B: Howie Kendrick (146)
2B: Asdrubal Cabrera (98)
CF: Victor Robles (91)
C: Yan Gomes (79)
P: Corbin (-43)
It’s the same lineup as Tuesday, with the exception that Gomes gets the start over Kurt Suzuki (105), which isn’t all that surprising as the two have split playing time fairly evenly on the year.
For the Division Series, the Nationals have chosen not to roster three catchers, as they did on Tuesday, which is no surprise. It’s more reasonable to add an emergency catcher for one game, in which there are more limits on how many pitchers can reasonably be needed, than for five, when all hell can break loose upon a bullpen. They’ve also left Andrew Stevenson, a pinch-runner on Tuesday, off the 25-man, which leaves the bench beyond catchers as Matt Adams (84), Brian Dozier (99), Ryan Zimmerman (89), Gerardo Parra (74), and Michael Taylor (73). Not an awe-inspiring group, but one with some power.
Dodgers:
LF: A.J. Pollock (108)
1B: David Freese (162)
3B: Justin Turner (132)
CF: Cody Bellinger (162)
RF: Chris Taylor (107)
2B: Max Muncy (134)
SS: Corey Seager (113)
C: Will Smith (132)
P: Buehler (-25)
It’s a mighty lineup, but there are questions about how healthy Justin Turner is after he missed a lot of time in September with back stiffness. Overall, though, beyond the absence of Alex Verdugo, the Dodgers enter the series fairly healthy. Backing up Smith is veteran Russell Martin (83), who’d be a good starter in his own right were Smith not looking like one of the three best catchers in the MLB already as a rookie. Beyond Martin, the Los Angeles bench tonight is populated by second baseman Gavin Lux (87 wRC+ in 82 PA’s, 188 wRC+ at AAA), utility man Enrique Hernández (88), semi-utility man Matt Beaty (102), and outfielder Joc Pederson (127). Pederson bats left-handed and should be expected to start against all Nationals pitchers but Corbin. Beaty and Lux could also start, especially if Turner’s back proves to be too much of an issue. Hernández isn’t having as strong a year as he had last season, but his defensive value remains significant, so don’t be surprised to see him in there in the late innings.
Who Will Win
Las Vegas gives the Nationals about a 38% chance of winning tonight, but only roughly a 32% chance of winning the series. This is notable, given that the Nationals are on the road, but the difference likely stems from the Nationals’ thin pitching—the longer the series goes, the more fatigued their arms will likely be. Against the Dodgers’ deep staff, that weakness is particularly notable. FanGraphs, though, disagrees, giving the Nationals a 41.1% likelihood of winning tonight and a 45.1% chance of winning the series. Presumably, the gap in series odds is because of that pitching fatigue question, but FanGraphs’ number gives the impression that might be overblown: a drop from 45% to 32% is huge, even when assuming FanGraphs is already more sympathetic to the Nats than Las Vegas based on the Game One odds.
The Dodgers are the favorite. But when a team has the advantage across its best three starters, that team always has a chance in October.
