There’s more playoff baseball today. The National League Division Series kicks off, and we’re starting with the undercard here, because we’re going in chronological order and this one begins in about fifteen minutes. In a best-of-five series, the Atlanta Braves and St. Louis Cardinals are competing for a spot in the NLCS. It begins tonight in Atlanta. Tomorrow’s game will also be in Atlanta. Then St. Louis on Sunday and possibly Monday, and back to Atlanta on Wednesday if a Game Five is necessary.
Here’s what to know:
How They Got Here
After some offseason uncertainty over how serious they were about contending, the Braves steadily climbed throughout the season, with a FanGraphs’ division championship probability over 50% from June 11th through the end of the year.
That isn’t to say there weren’t challenges. The team’s pitching staff frustrated at times early. But Dallas Keuchel, while a bit underwhelming by FIP (4.72), has managed a 3.75 ERA, and Mike Foltynewicz, who was demoted to the minors at one point, has a 3.77 FIP and 2.65 ERA since returning in early August. Perhaps more importantly, their trade deadline bullpen makeover took them from having the worst bullpen by fWAR through July to the ninth-best over August and September.
The Cardinals had a more dramatic path, with odds as low as 9.1% to win the Central following contests on August 8th, even after their 12-2 start to post-All Star Break baseball. They proved they had another run in them over the season’s final seven weeks, burying the Cubs with a four-game sweep in late September and holding off the Brewers on the season’s final day.
What was to thank for the Cardinals turnaround? While the bullpen wasn’t an asset over just the second half, it deserves mentioning in almost any summary of the St. Louis season, managing the seventh-best fWAR in baseball even while dealing with the absence of Jordan Hicks from the end of June onwards. There was also the resurrection of Paul Goldschmidt after a rough start (99 wRC+ through June, 128 post-All Star Break), Tommy Edman’s surprising rookie year (3.2 fWAR over effectively half a season), and a defense led by Paul DeJong and Harrison Bader that counted itself as the third-best in the MLB by FanGraphs’ Defensive Runs Above Average metric.
Who’s Pitching
Games one through three have been announced as follows:
Game 1: Miles Mikolas (STL) @ Keuchel (ATL)
The Cardinals would prefer to have Jack Flaherty start this game, but he pitched on Sunday in their effort to avoid a tiebreaker game for the division title. Instead, it’ll be the right-handed Mikolas and his 4.27 FIP. For the Braves, an interesting choice was made to go with Keuchel over rookies Mike Soroka and Max Fried, both of whom have lower FIP’s than the well-bearded lefty.
Game 2: Flaherty (STL) @ Foltynewicz (ATL)
Here’s Flaherty. One of the best pitchers in baseball over the second half, the 23-year-old was the Cardinals’ most valuable player this season, turning in nearly 200 innings of 3.46-FIP baseball. The righty’s allowed only eight runs since August began, with a 2.18 FIP over that stretch. Here, also, is Foltynewicz, who’s pitched well since returning from the minors but not as well, by FIP, as Soroka and Fried have pitched over the entire season. Foltynewicz made a lot of Cy Young ballots last year (the ballot goes ten deep), so perhaps that’s why the Braves made the move? Maybe they feel more comfortable having Fried come out of the ‘pen if necessary? An intriguing call, regardless. Foltynewicz, like Flaherty, throws with his right arm.
Game 3: Soroka (ATL) @ Adam Wainwright (STL)
Soroka, a 21-year-old right-hander from Calgary, had a 1.55 ERA on the road this season. He had a 2.68 ERA overall, though, and his sample size, as a rookie, is small enough to justify raising an eyebrow at the significance of any split. Either way, he’s been relegated to Game Three, at which point the Braves might be needing that road win to guarantee themselves a trip back to Atlanta for Game Five. Wainwright, a 38-year-old righty, has performed admirably after missing a lot of time in 2017 and 2018. He’s got a 4.36 FIP, which isn’t spectacular, but is very good for a 38-year-old man.
If the series reaches a Game Four and neither has been used out of the bullpen, look for Fried (3.72 FIP) to oppose Dakota Hudson (4.93 FIP, 3.35 ERA). Both are 25 years old. Both are in their first season as full-time major league starters. Fried’s a lefty, Hudson’s a righty. Both have thrown some gems this year.
From the bullpen, the Braves like to close with Mark Melancon (2.86 FIP), the experienced right-hander acquired from the Giants at the end of July. In front of him, fellow deadline additions Shane Greene (3.79) and Chris Martin (3.25) have been serving as right-handed setup men, as has former closer Luke Jackson (3.24). The quartet is joined by right-handers Darren O’Day, who returned from a forearm injury a week into September, and Josh Tomlin (4.49), a former starter in Cleveland, as well as the bullpen’s lone lefty, Sean Newcomb (4.24), who started the year in the rotation but has almost exclusively been a reliever since April. Fried’s left-handed status could be part of why the Braves want him available in relief, and it’s possible Keuchel could be seen from the ‘pen at some point if it proves necessary. Overall, though, Atlanta has built itself a nice relief corps—one possibly even better than its acclaimed counterpart.
That counterpart bullpen is headlined by closer Carlos Martínez (2.86). Martínez, you may recall, was one of the Cardinals’ best starters very recently. He moved to the bullpen last August, and after missing this season’s first month and a half with a shoulder strain, he didn’t make any starts this year. His fellow righty, Giovanny Gallegos (3.05), is next in line from a trustworthiness perspective, but the bigger-name Andrew Miller (5.19) could still get some high-leverage opportunities. Whether he’ll convert in them remains to be seen. Additional righties available are John Brebbia (3.13), Ryan Helsley (4.22), and Daniel Ponce de Leon (4.41). Lefties are Tyler Webb (4.49) and Génesis Cabrera (4.54).
The Hitters
Each team has already announced its starting lineup for today. They’re listed here, with wRC+’s in parentheses.
Cardinals:
RF: Dexter Fowler (103)
3B: Edman (123)
1B: Goldschmidt (116)
LF: Marcell Ozuna (110)
C: Yadier Molina (87)
SS: DeJong (100)
2B: Kolten Wong (108)
CF: Bader (81)
P: Mikolas (-30)
It’s a lineup lacking in pop, which is on-brand for this year’s Cardinals, who finished 15th in the MLB with a 95 wRC+ in the regular season. On the bench, the options aren’t much better. There’s Matt Carpenter (95), who’s having a down year but might play tomorrow over Wong against a right-handed starter, with Edman moving to second base. This would be a risky move, given Wong’s been the better hitter over the course of the year, but Carpenter’s an established veteran, and the two have been splitting time with Edman against righties as of late. There’s Matt Wieters (81), the switch-hitting backup catcher. There’s the intriguing Randy Arozarena (151 at AAA), who’s fast and has a strong defensive reputation in the outfield to go with those mammoth minor league numbers, but has only 23 career MLB plate appearances. There’s José Martínez (101), another outfielder who started a lot of games for St. Louis this year. And there’s Yairo Muñoz (73). Arozarena, Martínez, and Muñoz all bat right-handed.
Braves:
CF: Ronald Acuña Jr. (126)
2B: Ozzie Albies (117)
1B: Freddie Freeman (138)
3B: Josh Donaldson (132)
LF: Nick Markakis (102)
RF: Matt Joyce (128)
C: Brian McCann (89)
SS: Dansby Swanson (92)
P: Keuchel (-25)
The better of the two offensively, the Braves have some bona fide weapons at the top of their order. Acuña has been one of the best players in baseball the last two years. Freeman has slugged perennially since about 2013. Donaldson isn’t the same player he was when he won the AL MVP with the Blue Jays, but he can still hit. And Albies had his best regular season yet at the young age of 22.
Adam Duvall (121) normally platoons with Joyce and Markakis, but the outfielder’s right-handed bat might not be needed as much as their left-handed ones against a righty-heavy St. Louis staff. Tyler Flowers (88) starts at catcher more often than not against lefties, as the right-handed part of the platoon, but he’s started a number of games against righties as well, so it may have more to do with who’s pitching for the Braves than who’s pitching for the Cardinals when it comes to deciding between him McCann, and longtime Pirates backstop Francisco Cervelli (73). Billy Hamilton (50) has wound up in Atlanta, so look for him to provide his customary speed and defensive prowess in the outfield off the bench. Then there’s Adeiny Hechavarría (93), the right-handed middle infielder, and Rafael Ortega (127 at AAA), the left-handed outfielder, both of whom will likely be seen as pinch-hitters.
Who Will Win
FanGraphs has the Braves as a 54.0% favorite in the series, but a heavier one (56.5%) tonight. Las Vegas is more sold on Atlanta both tonight (roughly a 58% favorite) and over the series as a whole (somewhere around a 57% favorite).
Winning Game One is important in any series, but especially when staring down a starter as good as Jack Flaherty in Game Two. Similarly, the Cardinals will really want to get a victory with Flaherty tomorrow, as beating Soroka in Game Three will be no easy task. Should St. Louis force a Game Five, they’ll have the advantage even with the game taking place in Atlanta, as they’ll presumably start Flaherty on normal rest. It’s key for the Cardinals to get at least one win in Atlanta today or tomorrow. It’s key for the Braves to take care of business tonight so they can try to take the series in Missouri.
