It’s the eleventh straight day of postseason baseball, and we’ve got a long way to go. With the best-of-seven’s starting tonight, it won’t be quite so white-knuckle the next few days. But that doesn’t mean it won’t be high-pressure.
Here’s what to know about the Nationals and Cardinals as they begin the NLCS:
How They Got Here
Both the Nationals and Cardinals were left for dead at points in the regular season—in late May, the Nationals were in 14th place out of 15 NL teams; as late as August 8th, the Cardinals trailed a better-on-paper Cubs team by four games in the Central and were also behind the Brewers. Both made the field.
Similarly, each looked to be on its way out in the Division Series. The Cardinals needed a dramatic eighth-inning comeback to stay alive in Game Four against the Braves. The Nationals stunned the Dodgers in Game Five with an eighth-inning resurrection of their own.
Even in the wild card game, Washington stunned the Brewers by coming back from two runs down in, keeping with the theme, the eighth inning.
If you go back to the preseason, a Nationals/Cardinals NLCS wouldn’t be all that stunning. The absence of the Dodgers would be surprising, but we knew the Nationals had this in them, and the Central had the look of a mudfight according to certain projections. In May, though, this would have looked shocking, and it would have been similarly surprising as recently as Monday morning.
Who’s Pitching
The series begins in St. Louis, because even though the Nationals had the better regular season record by two games, division champions are given home field over wild card teams in the LCS’s. For right now, the Cardinals’ staff lines up as follows, with regular season FIP’s in parentheses:
Game One: Miles Mikolas (4.27)
Game Two: Adam Wainwright (4.36)
Game Three: Jack Flaherty (3.46)
Game Four: Dakota Hudson (4.93)
Game Five, if necessary: Mikolas
Game Six, if necessary: Wainwright
Game Seven, if necessary: Flaherty
It’s possible this will change. Extra innings or situational necessities can shake up even the clearest of plans. But overall, the Cardinals’ pitching strength, beyond Flaherty, lies more in their bullpen than their rotation, and since they’ve shown what might be a desire to keep Flaherty in his routine, not pulling him from Game Five even with it in hand after the top half of the first, they’re not all that likely to deviate from this script.
All four starters are right-handers. In the aforementioned bullpen, which reportedly will be the same as it was in the NLDS, they’ve got three lefties:
Tyler Webb (4.49)
Génesis Cabrera (4.54)
Andrew Miller (5.19)
To go with five righties:
Carlos Martínez (2.86)
Giovanny Gallegos (3.05)
John Brebbia (3.13)
Ryan Helsley (4.22)
Daniel Ponce de Leon (4.41)
Clearly, left-handed pitching is not the Cardinals’ strength, which could be troubling in dealing with the likes of one particular National. Miller is supposed to be that guy for St. Louis, but he hasn’t been that guy for a while now. Still, it’s a bullpen that was among the MLB’s best, and in the NLDS, aside from their closer, Martínez, who allowed six earned runs in just over three innings, it allowed only one earned run.
For the Nationals, things are murkier, thanks in part to the fact that most of their best pitching options are normally starters. In a five-game set, the higher number of off days and the propensity for chaos makes it more natural to use starters in relief. But in a seven-game set, the stakes are just as high, so it’ll be interesting to see how Washington balances giving themselves a chance to win every game with seizing opportunities while they’re there. Not to mention keeping their staff operating as close to peak performance as possible.
They’ll start the series with a right-hander:
Aníbal Sánchez (4.44)
Who is only their fourth-best starter. He contributed five innings in his lone NLDS start, allowing only one run, and 4.44 is a solid FIP, but it isn’t what they get out of the rest of their rotation:
Max Scherzer (2.45)
Stephen Strasburg (3.25)
Patrick Corbin (3.49)
Scherzer, a righty, threw 109 pitches on Monday and was warming in the bullpen Wednesday when the Nationals clinched the series. It’s not inconceivable that he could be seen in relief tonight, but he could also start tomorrow in Game Two on normal rest. Strasburg, also a righty, threw 105 pitches on Wednesday, which means he’ll likely start Game Three on Monday on normal rest. Corbin, a lefty, threw 35 pitches in relief on Sunday and 22 more in relief on Wednesday, in addition to 107 way back in Game One a week ago yesterday. He’s likely fatigued to some extent, but he’s certainly an option out of the bullpen today or to start tomorrow.
Assuming the Nationals stick with their NLDS roster, they’ll have just one lefty beyond Corbin on the staff:
Sean Doolittle (4.25)
Doolittle struggled at times this year after entering the season as the assumed Washington closer. He was on the mound to close out the NLDS, but that was because the game entered extra innings. If the Nationals do shake it up, Roenis Elías (5.07) would be the most likely addition to the ranks. He was effective with the Mariners in 2018, but had trouble this year before going down with a hamstring injury in September. Still, he’s a left-handed pitcher, and the Nationals’ bullpen is a beggar, not a chooser.
For righties, manager Davey Martinez has six options:
Wander Suero (3.07)
Austin Voth (3.79)
Daniel Hudson (3.97)
Fernando Rodney (4.28)
Tanner Rainey (4.37)
Hunter Strickland (6.30)
Hudson is the closer right now. Beyond him, Martinez tried just about everything when he wasn’t using a starter or Doolittle in the NLDS.
Who’s Hitting
From the sounds of it, the Nationals will be going with something similar to their Game Five lineup to open the series. Here’s that order, with wRC+’s in parentheses and Sánchez added:
SS: Trea Turner (117)
RF: Adam Eaton (108)
3B: Anthony Rendon (154)
LF: Juan Soto (142)
2B: Howie Kendrick (146)
1B: Ryan Zimmerman (89)
C: Kurt Suzuki (105)
CF: Michael A. Taylor (73)
P: Sánchez (-50)
And here would be the corresponding bench:
C: Yan Gomes (79)
1B: Matt Adams (84)
2B: Brian Dozier (99)
IF: Asdrúbal Cabrera (98)
OF: Gerardo Parra (74)
OF: Victor Robles (91)
Robles injured his hamstring in Game Two of the NLDS but will start over Taylor if deemed healthy. Suzuki took a fastball off his wrist and then head in Game Five (same fastball—two points of contact), so Gomes may start over him. The two platoon anyway, but Suzuki’s been the more common catcher when Sánchez starts. Cabrera has started at second base at times, with Kendrick moving to first and Zimmerman sitting. Right-handed hitters on the roster are: Turner, Rendon, Kendrick, Zimmerman, Suzuki, Taylor, Gomes, Dozier, and Robles. Lefties are Eaton, Soto, Adams, and Parra. Cabrera is a switch-hitter.
For the Cardinals, the lineup will likely look similar to theirs from Game Five, with Mikolas inserted:
CF: Dexter Fowler (103)
2B: Kolten Wong (108)
1B: Paul Goldschmidt (116)
LF: Marcell Ozuna (110)
C: Yadier Molina (87)
3B: Matt Carpenter (95)
RF: Tommy Edman (123)
SS: Paul DeJong (100)
P: Mikolas (-30)
Which would, on the bench, leave:
C: Matt Wieters (81)
1B/OF: José Martínez (101)
OF: Randy Arozarena (151 at AAA)
OF: Harrison Bader (81)
Utility: Yairo Muñoz (73)
Bader started Games One and Two of the NLDS in place of Carpenter, with Edman moving to third base and Fowler moving to right field. He, Edman, and Arozarena all possess significant speed, which could prove a problem for Suzuki, who’s had a tough time throwing runners out on the year.
Right-handed hitters rostered are Goldschmidt, Ozuna, Molina, DeJong, Martínez, Arozarena, Bader, and Muñoz. Lefties are Wong and Carpenter. Fowler, Edman, and Wieters are all switch-hitters.
Who Will Win
It’s a tricky matchup to predict. The Nationals have the stronger offense and rotation. The Cardinals have the better bullpen to go with home field advantage. FanGraphs has the Nationals as about 66% favorites, but the Las Vegas odds I’ve seen imply a probability closer to 53%. That’s a large split. FanGraphs has consistently been higher on the Nationals than Las Vegas this season, probably thanks to a large FIP/ERA gap for the Washington bullpen and the fact the media narrative hasn’t really latched on to just how depleted the Nationals were by injuries over the season’s first two months. FanGraphs has similarly been consistently lower on the Cardinals, for reasons less clear. In other words, the split is on-brand, but is striking nonetheless.
For the Cardinals, it’s especially important to take care of business in Game One, when they know they’ll be facing Sánchez at least for the beginning of the game. The worst-case scenario for St. Louis is one in which Mikolas falters, Sánchez and the Washington bullpen pitch well enough, and the Nationals can get through the first game without using Scherzer or Corbin. In that case, they’ve lost home field advantage and they have to figure out how to win at least three games against three of the best fifteen starters in the MLB.
On the flipside, while the Nationals always have a pitching advantage with Scherzer or Strasburg on the hill, Flaherty has been slightly better than Corbin on the season. It might not be imperative to beat the non-Flaherty Cardinals starters, but it would sure be an easier path than dealing with the 23-year-old in a must-win game.
As with all series, the team to strike first gets an advantage. But when the tally is even, odds favor the Nationals no matter the location.
