The MLB Playoffs start tonight, meaning it’s finally that time when televised baseball becomes an exciting experience for the average person. Of course, MLB higher-ups and members of the sports media won’t recognize this difference from the regular season, so brace yourself for hot takes about pace of play, length of game, number of home runs, and other things you wouldn’t know were problems if you were a casual viewer intrigued by the energy and drama suddenly surrounding the sport.
Tonight’s NL Wild Card Game, in which the Washington Nationals host the Milwaukee Brewers, is sudden death, and we don’t mean that Max Scherzer is going to kill someone, though my colleague NIT Stu will undoubtedly be tweeting things to that effect. What we mean is that the winner goes to play the Dodgers in Los Angeles Thursday night in Game One of the Division Series, and the loser goes home for the winter.
Here’s what to expect:
How They Got Here
In getting here, both teams overcame what were, at times, long odds.
The Nationals were, according to FanGraphs’ playoff projections, only 22.2% likely to make the postseason following games of May 23rd. They were in 14th place in the National League at one point, having entered the season expected to be in the thick of the NL East race. Since then, they’ve been one of the best three teams in baseball, with a post-May 23rd record identical to that of the Dodgers and just half a game worse than that of the Astros. Having missed major parts of their lineup over the season’s first two months and suffered a bad performance from the bullpen, they started winning when they got the band back together, and kept winning even when their ace, Scherzer (arguably the best pitcher in baseball), missed time around the trade deadline with a back injury.
The Brewers’ low point was lower, and came later: After games of September 5th, the Brew Crew was only 5.6% likely to make the field. Five days after that, Christian Yelich (one of the best five players in the game) fractured his kneecap, taking him out for the rest of the season. The injury came in the fifth game of what became a seven-game win streak, as Milwaukee wound up winning 18 of their last 23 games, including an 18-of-20 stretch prior to the season’s final weekend.
Who’s Pitching
This is a complicated matter.
For the Brewers, Brandon Woodruff is starting, but he’s coming back from an oblique injury that made him miss August and the first half of September. He hasn’t thrown more than 40 pitches in either of his outings since coming back, so it’ll be a surprise if he lasts more than three innings even if things go perfectly.
When healthy, Woodruff’s been one of the league’s top arms, with the seventh-best FIP of the 104 pitchers who threw 120 or more innings in the regular season (editor’s note: FIP, Fielding Independent Pitching, measures how many earned runs a pitcher would have given up per nine innings with perfectly average timing and defense—it’s similar to ERA, but more predictive of future ERA than ERA itself is). His velocities have been about the same since returning from injury, which is a good proxy for how full-strength he is. In other words, he’s probably full-strength, but he’s not full-endurance. A big question is how far Brewers manager Craig Counsell will ride him if things are going well.
Behind Woodruff, the Brewers have nine pitchers available tonight. The most notable of those is Josh Hader, the long-haired, left-handed strikeout machine from Millersville, Maryland. No pitcher in baseball who’s thrown more than 31 innings this year has more strikeouts per inning than Hader. The most pitches Hader has thrown in a 2019 game is 44, but he could conceivably be used for a three-inning stretch at some point in the game, should the situation necessitate such a move.
That leaves, in the Brewers’ best-case scenario, three innings to be filled by eight pitchers. The best two of those, by FIP, are Brent Suter and Drew Pomeranz (in Pomeranz’s case, that FIP is only since he joined the Brewers—we’ll get to why that’s important). Suter underwent Tommy John surgery last August and only made it back to the big leagues in September. Since returning, he’s been great, allowing only one run over just more than 18 innings. Normally, he’s a starter, and he’s thrown as many as 41 pitches in an outing this year. He, like Hader, is left-handed. Pomeranz, too, is more accustomed to starting than relief work. Pomeranz, too, is left-handed. The former Rockies, Athletics, Padres, Red Sox, and Giants pitcher came to Milwaukee from San Francisco at the trade deadline along with another arm, Ray Black, who did not work out as well. It was something of a bold trade at the time by the Brewers, as they sent Mauricio Dubón, who was probably one of the ten most promising players in their farm system at the time of the trade (and might have been valuable at shortstop tonight). It seems to have paid off so far, since Pomeranz has turned into an effective reliever after struggling mightily for the season-and-a-half preceding the trade. But we’ll see how October goes.
Among righties you might see tonight, Jordan Lyles and Chase Anderson are starters on hand should they be needed. Lyles, the better of the two this year by FIP, has one more day of rest, but both are fresh. It seems most likely that Lyles will pitch the remaining early innings once Woodruff’s day is done, but necessity breeds innovation, so we’ll see where things stand. There’s also Freddy Peralta and Junior Guerra, both converted starters who’ve posted respectable FIP’s out of the ‘pen. Beyond those four, Woodruff, Hader, Suter, and Pomeranz, Counsell’s got Alex Claudio and Jay Jackson rostered.
For the Nationals, Scherzer is the starter, and they’ll ride him as long as they can. He’s thrown as many as 109 pitches in a game since returning from the back issue, so he’s probably close to being at full strength. In an ideal world for the Nationals, he’d throw all nine innings. Realistically, they’ll need to go to the bullpen. That’s where things get dicey for them.
The Nationals’ bullpen had the fifth-worst FIP in the MLB this season, and the second-worst ERA. They tied for second in the majors in blown saves and had one of the ten highest blown save rates. It’s a major concern for the team, which is part of why they decided to equip manager Davey Martinez with three starters in addition to five pitchers from the relief corps tonight.
A team’s 25-man roster for the Wild Card Game doesn’t restrict who they can and can’t roster the rest of the postseason. So, normally in these games, you’ll see more position players and fewer starting pitchers than you would later in the postseason—starters who are resting don’t make the cut. Which is why it’s interesting that beyond just putting a well-rested Stephen Strasburg, the Nationals’ second-best pitcher, in the bullpen, the Nationals put Patrick Corbin (the third-best, and—like Strasburg—a starter) in there on only two days of rest. Presumably, they don’t want to use Corbin tonight, but if they have to, they will, and a lot will be made of how he performs in such circumstances.
Beyond Strasburg and Corbin, well-rested starter Aníbal Sánchez is available, along with only five pitchers from the normal bullpen. There’s the left-handed Sean Doolittle, who would be their closer but has struggled this season at times, posting the worst FIP and ERA of his career. He’s still a solid option—one of the best they have—but his performance has been uninspiring. There’s Daniel Hudson, a journeyman right-hander who’s become their closer and has pitched effectively but is no Hader (or normal Doolittle, for that matter). There’s Tanner Rainey, 26 years old and in his first full season—he’s been solid, but again, hasn’t pitched as well as the Brewers’ best options. Then, there are the 42-year-old Fernando Rodney and the 31-year-old Hunter Strickland, two pitchers with troubling numbers on the season but evidently more reliability than the bullpen’s FIP leader, Wander Suero, who was left off the list for tonight.
The bottom line is that the Nationals want to get the lead early, both to give their bullpen some margin for error and to save themselves from having to attempt a comeback against Hader—not only in the scenario in which he enters in the 7th, but in one in which they jump on Woodruff (or Lyles) and force Counsell to call Hader’s number early, to keep things close while leaving the end of the game for Pomeranz, Suter, & Co. In the end, a game in which Scherzer pitches six and Strasburg throws the remaining three might be the best outcome for them. But the situation may not allow such a script.
Washington has the advantage on the mound until Scherzer leaves the game. It projects to be a larger advantage in the middle innings than the first two, when Woodruff will be in there. Once the later innings hit, the advantage flips to the Brewers, though Strasburg can help neutralize that.
The Starting Lineups
The Brewers haven’t announced their lineup yet, but the best guess is something resembling the following. wRC+’s are in parentheses (editor’s note: wRC+, weighted Runs Created plus, is a metric that compares each hitter to the average MLB hitter in terms of their overall contributions to offense, with 100 being league-average, 110 being 10% better than league-average, 80 being 20% poorer than league-average, etc.).
CF: Trent Grisham (92)
C: Yasmani Grandal (121)
3B: Mike Moustakas (113)
2B: Keston Hiura (139)
1B: Eric Thames (117)
LF: Ryan Braun (117)
RF: Ben Gamel (87)
SS: Orlando Arcia (61)
P: Woodruff (63)
The big question marks here are whether Braun will be healthy enough to play (he missed Saturday and Sunday’s games with a calf strain) and whether normal starting center fielder Lorenzo Cain (83 wRC+) will be healthy enough to play (he sprained his ankle during Saturday’s game). If both play, sub Cain in for Gamel in the lineup above. If neither plays, expect Cory Spangenberg (60 wRC+) or Tyrone Taylor (90 wRC+ at AAA this year, only 12 MLB plate appearances) in there instead of Braun. Cain is valuable defensively, but that would be neutralized were the ankle to impact his mobility. Braun’s value comes at the plate, so if he doesn’t start, he could still pinch-hit, perhaps as early as the second or third inning.
Grandal has, besides Yelich, been the Brewers’ most valuable player this season. Moustakas has been reliably solid in the middle of the order. Thames has bounced back from a relative down year following a breakout 2017. The rookie Hiura has been sensational in his cumulative half-season of big-league ball.
Beyond Spangenberg and Taylor on the bench, there’s backup catcher Manny Piña (87 wRC+), first baseman Tyler Austin (85), utility man Hernán Pérez (62), and infielder Travis Shaw (47). Those aren’t great pinch hitting options, but they’re what the Brewers have. Shaw’s having a perplexingly terrible season at the plate. He, Gamel, and Grisham (should either of the latter two sit) would be the only left-handed hitters available on the bench. Piña is unlikely to pinch-hit until late in the game due to the necessity of having an emergency catcher available. Expect the bottom two spots in the order to not produce much for Milwaukee tonight—it’s possible, but it would be a surprise.
As far as pinch runners go, Grisham, Spangenberg, and Gamel are the fastest Brewers available according to Statcast’s Sprint Speed. None are legendary on the bases, but all are stolen base threats.
The Nationals just announced their lineup while I was typing this. Here it is:
SS: Trea Turner (117)
RF: Adam Eaton (108)
3B: Anthony Rendon (154)
LF: Juan Soto (142)
1B: Howie Kendrick (146)
2B: Asdrúbal Cabrera (98)
C: Kurt Suzuki (105)
CF: Victor Robles (91)
P: Scherzer (-13)
The difference in offensive capability between the two teams is striking. Robles, the worst hitter in the Nationals’ lineup, is comparable to the Brewers’ projected leadoff man. Even Cabrera has a 145 wRC+ since joining the Nationals in early August (he was released by the Rangers around the end of July). The difference in health is also noticeable. Undoubtedly, some Nationals are fighting nagging issues, but their MVP candidate isn’t out with a broken kneecap, and two of their better players aren’t battling significant lower-body injuries.
On the bench, the Nationals have two catchers: Yan Gomes (79 wRC+), who grades out better defensively than Suzuki, making him a possible mid-game switch; and Raudy Read (97 wRC+ at AAA, only eleven MLB plate appearances this season), who’s likely there only to allow Gomes to enter early without white-knuckling it the rest of the way. Available infielders are Matt Adams (84), Ryan Zimmerman (89), and Brian Dozier (100), all of whom have some pop in their bats. Adams hits left-handed, Zimmerman and Dozier are righties. Available outfielders are Gerardo Parra (74), Michael Taylor (73), and Andrew Stevenson (116 wRC+ at AAA, only 37 MLB PA’s). Stevenson and Parra are lefties, Taylor’s a righty.
The most likely pinch hitters, then, are Dozier, Zimmerman, and Adams. Stevenson and Taylor could each be called upon as pinch runners at some point, and Stevenson’s bat might not prove insignificant.
Even with Yelich in the lineup most of the year, the Brewers’ team wRC+ was only 97 this season, compared to 103 for the Nats. Since the Nats bottomed out in May, theirs has been 111, which is probably a more accurate gauge of their scoring prowess.
Who Will Win
The Nationals are clearly the favorite, especially playing at home. But the Brewers have surprised for the last month, and could easily do so again tonight. FanGraphs gives Washington somewhere between a 62% and 65% chance to win, depending where you look and depending if Cain or Braun starts. The oddsmakers in Las Vegas are listing comparable numbers. The over/under is set at 7.5, but the odds lean closer to eight than seven, implying the Nationals are expected to win by a score of something like 4-3 or 5-3 (Las Vegas has the Brewers as about 57% likely to cover as 1.5-run underdogs).
The weather will drop from around 80 degrees at gametime into the 70’s, with the wind blowing out to left field and hardly a cloud in the sky, a beautiful start to what could become a cold month for baseball. The Nationals are flawed but appear strong. The Brewers are flawed and are battling injuries. But in just one game, the roles of individual pitchers are significant, and the Brandon Woodruff/Josh Hader combination gives Milwaukee a fair shot. The Nationals are favorites for a reason, but they’re also only 64%-ish favorites for a reason.
