Our updated postseason tournament probabilities can be found at these links, and they’re also archived below:
Some highlights, after the First Four and the NIT’s First Round:
- There isn’t much impact from the First Four, or at least not much impact we can separate from the noise of a Monte Carlo simulation process. Favorites won in both the at-large play-in games, leaving Texas and Florida with tougher opponents, something that’s also the case for Marquette and Tennessee, looking ahead to the second round. Texas was more affected here than Florida. Texas had a lot of upside in the scenario where they got to play Virginia.
- The expected number of NCAA Tournament 1, 2, 3, and 4-seeds to lose is roughly 1.5. We should see one or two upsets in that territory of the bracket these next two days. Among 5 and 6-seeds, the number is roughly 2.75.
- On Tuesday, the NIT favorites were, in order: Wake Forest, Villanova, Cincinnati, Indiana State, Ohio State, Utah, Seton Hall, and Princeton. Villanova and Princeton were both eliminated (which wasn’t unusual—we expected around two eliminations from this group), but the other six remain our top six, albeit in a slightly different order relative to one another: Wake Forest remains first. Indiana State and Utah jump to second and third. Cincinnati drops to fourth. Ohio State drops to fifth. Seton Hall remains sixth within that group. What happened? Cincinnati and Ohio State were more expected to win their first round games. Also, Wake got a slightly better draw than expected, matching up with Georgia in the second round rather than Xavier, and that took some of the air out of Ohio State’s balloon in particular. Meanwhile, Cincinnati didn’t see Bradley or Indiana State go down.
- UNLV hosting a second-round game is a big development, as is South Florida hosting one. Both those teams were only 50% likely to host in our previous simulations, and that was even in the event the other unseeded team in their pod won. Combined with the upset of Princeton, UNLV drawing Boston College at home multiplies their championship probability five times. South Florida’s chance grows by a similar multiple.
- Only one NIT 1-seed went down in the first round, again meeting our rough expectation. The best expectation for this weekend is that another one goes down.
- The likeliest outcome among the 2-seeds is also just one going down, but that expected number is closer to two while the expected number with the 1-seeds is closer to three.
More on Saturday morning, when the NCAAT’s first round is complete.
For the Archives
| Team | Second Round | Quarterfinals | Semifinals | Championship | Champion |
| Wake Forest | 100.0% | 80.0% | 54.1% | 34.0% | 19.4% |
| Indiana State | 100.0% | 74.5% | 46.8% | 26.2% | 14.0% |
| Utah | 100.0% | 62.6% | 44.3% | 21.3% | 10.9% |
| Cincinnati | 100.0% | 69.7% | 33.6% | 19.2% | 10.5% |
| Ohio State | 100.0% | 65.3% | 27.5% | 16.2% | 8.5% |
| Seton Hall | 100.0% | 62.3% | 38.5% | 15.7% | 7.0% |
| Iowa | 100.0% | 37.4% | 26.2% | 12.4% | 6.2% |
| UNLV | 100.0% | 63.5% | 27.7% | 11.3% | 5.0% |
| Virginia Tech | 100.0% | 34.8% | 13.2% | 7.3% | 3.6% |
| North Texas | 100.0% | 37.7% | 18.6% | 7.2% | 3.0% |
| Bradley | 100.0% | 30.3% | 12.3% | 6.4% | 2.9% |
| Boston College | 100.0% | 36.6% | 15.3% | 6.0% | 2.4% |
| South Florida | 100.0% | 58.9% | 16.9% | 6.1% | 2.3% |
| VCU | 100.0% | 41.1% | 12.6% | 5.1% | 2.3% |
| Minnesota | 100.0% | 25.5% | 7.4% | 3.3% | 1.2% |
| Georgia | 100.0% | 20.0% | 5.3% | 2.4% | 1.0% |
| Villanova | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Princeton | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| SMU | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| San Francisco | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Appalachian State | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Saint Joseph’s | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Loyola (IL) | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Providence | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Butler | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| UCF | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Xavier | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| LSU | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kansas State | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Richmond | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| UC Irvine | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cornell | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Team | First Round | Second Round | Sweet 16 | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Championship | Champion |
| Houston | 100.0% | 97.4% | 78.2% | 55.6% | 41.9% | 26.9% | 16.2% |
| UConn | 100.0% | 98.8% | 82.3% | 52.3% | 36.0% | 24.9% | 15.5% |
| Purdue | 100.0% | 98.8% | 77.6% | 55.9% | 35.9% | 20.6% | 11.3% |
| Auburn | 100.0% | 89.5% | 67.1% | 33.5% | 20.8% | 13.5% | 7.8% |
| Arizona | 100.0% | 95.6% | 68.7% | 44.6% | 27.6% | 12.9% | 6.5% |
| Iowa State | 100.0% | 93.4% | 70.6% | 43.0% | 19.0% | 11.1% | 6.0% |
| Tennessee | 100.0% | 96.4% | 65.8% | 42.5% | 22.3% | 11.5% | 5.4% |
| North Carolina | 100.0% | 98.4% | 61.2% | 37.1% | 19.1% | 8.1% | 3.8% |
| Duke | 100.0% | 86.9% | 56.8% | 23.4% | 14.3% | 7.5% | 3.3% |
| Illinois | 100.0% | 88.0% | 55.5% | 28.6% | 10.9% | 6.1% | 2.9% |
| Creighton | 100.0% | 87.4% | 60.9% | 30.3% | 14.3% | 6.1% | 2.6% |
| Baylor | 100.0% | 89.9% | 52.4% | 24.3% | 12.4% | 4.7% | 2.0% |
| Marquette | 100.0% | 88.8% | 51.7% | 31.5% | 12.2% | 5.1% | 2.0% |
| Alabama | 100.0% | 83.4% | 49.4% | 25.0% | 12.2% | 4.8% | 2.0% |
| Gonzaga | 100.0% | 72.0% | 45.1% | 18.1% | 9.0% | 3.8% | 1.4% |
| Kentucky | 100.0% | 86.9% | 50.6% | 24.9% | 8.3% | 3.4% | 1.2% |
| BYU | 100.0% | 77.3% | 36.9% | 16.6% | 5.4% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| Wisconsin | 100.0% | 67.7% | 30.8% | 10.1% | 5.1% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| Saint Mary’s | 100.0% | 65.1% | 33.0% | 14.1% | 6.3% | 2.0% | 0.8% |
| Kansas | 100.0% | 71.6% | 35.3% | 12.1% | 5.1% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| San Diego State | 100.0% | 80.7% | 27.1% | 8.2% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.7% |
| New Mexico | 100.0% | 56.2% | 26.9% | 11.1% | 5.0% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| Colorado | 100.0% | 52.9% | 24.8% | 13.0% | 4.6% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| Texas Tech | 100.0% | 62.3% | 31.9% | 14.2% | 4.3% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Florida | 100.0% | 47.1% | 21.6% | 10.9% | 3.6% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| Michigan State | 100.0% | 54.3% | 22.1% | 11.0% | 4.7% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Colorado State | 100.0% | 49.5% | 16.8% | 8.0% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Nebraska | 100.0% | 55.1% | 12.9% | 5.7% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Texas | 100.0% | 50.5% | 17.0% | 7.9% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Dayton | 100.0% | 50.2% | 15.1% | 6.9% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Mississippi State | 100.0% | 45.7% | 16.7% | 8.3% | 3.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Nevada | 100.0% | 49.8% | 15.6% | 6.7% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| TCU | 100.0% | 53.9% | 12.6% | 5.8% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Clemson | 100.0% | 43.9% | 19.2% | 6.2% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Utah State | 100.0% | 46.1% | 9.7% | 4.2% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Texas A&M | 100.0% | 44.9% | 8.5% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| South Carolina | 100.0% | 54.8% | 20.1% | 6.4% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Washington State | 100.0% | 54.1% | 15.8% | 5.9% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Florida Atlantic | 100.0% | 51.4% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Drake | 100.0% | 45.9% | 12.2% | 4.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| McNeese | 100.0% | 28.0% | 11.5% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| NC State | 100.0% | 37.7% | 14.9% | 4.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Northwestern | 100.0% | 48.6% | 8.5% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Grand Canyon | 100.0% | 34.9% | 13.4% | 3.7% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| James Madison | 100.0% | 32.3% | 9.1% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Oregon | 100.0% | 45.2% | 15.3% | 4.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Yale | 100.0% | 10.6% | 3.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samford | 100.0% | 28.4% | 8.2% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Duquesne | 100.0% | 22.7% | 5.3% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| College of Charleston | 100.0% | 16.6% | 4.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Vermont | 100.0% | 13.1% | 3.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Akron | 100.0% | 12.6% | 3.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| UAB | 100.0% | 19.3% | 2.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Colgate | 100.0% | 10.1% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Longwood | 100.0% | 2.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Morehead State | 100.0% | 12.0% | 2.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Long Beach State | 100.0% | 4.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Oakland | 100.0% | 13.1% | 2.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Saint Peter’s | 100.0% | 3.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Western Kentucky | 100.0% | 11.2% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| South Dakota State | 100.0% | 6.6% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stetson | 100.0% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grambling State | 100.0% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wagner | 100.0% | 1.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Boise State | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Montana State | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Virginia | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Howard | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
