NIT Bubble Watch

This NIT Bubble Watch is for Saturday, March 16^th. If you would like the most current NIT Bubble Watch, you can always find that here.

DJ Burns.

The thing about DJ Burns is that he isn’t NC State’s best player. He’s not the go-to guy. He’s not the guy who makes the offense run. He’s not the most impactful dude defensively, and he doesn’t rebound like Mohamed Diarra.

But damn, is he fun to watch.

I don’t want to get too deep into the weight conversation, but Burns is listed at 275 lbs. and I think we can agree he’s stronger than that. 6’9”. 300-ish lbs. The smoothest ballerina in the paint.

DJ Burns isn’t NC State’s best player, taken in total. But over short stretches? Over single games? He becomes that guy. One minute, he’s barfing behind the bench while DJ Horne gives Wake Forest twin middle fingers from the free throw line. The next, he’s taking it to Virginia’s big men to push NC State into the ACC Tournament Championship.

God bless DJ Burns.

**

We have respects and disrespects to pay.

On the respects side, we lost more regular season conference champions yesterday. Or rather, they lost their conference tournaments, and this is the first year since 2005 that those teams won’t get an NIT invitation, and we feel sad about it. Sam Houston State, you were awesome last year, even if I still don’t know if you or Utah Valley was the WAC’s auto bid. Norfolk State, we will always have 2019. Quinnipiac. Your name is so fun to say and you always make me smile because you remind me there’s a college hockey world out there. UC Irvine…you’re still in this, but that was sad.

On the disrespects side, Chris Beard said Mississippi will decline an NIT invite, and Indiana will reportedly decline any that comes their way as well.

Mississippi isn’t a big loss for us—we’d rather not have to think about how best to cover a guy who got fired in Austin because of this—but we’re sad for their fans, who haven’t had a lot of postseason basketball to watch in their history. It’s a really bad look for the NIT, who was about to give Mississippi one of the new automatic bids, but Georgia fans seem excited about the prospect, and Georgia could clearly use more athletic success.

I’m crestfallen about Indiana, partly because we won’t see Indiana State vs. Indiana and partly because I don’t know that Indiana will ever be this good again. Indiana evidently thinks its problem is that it hasn’t been spending these next five days recruiting. I don’t think that’s Indiana’s problem. I can name a lot of teams better than Indiana who’ve had to focus on playing basketball over these five specific days. Some have had to focus into April!

Overall, I’d argue Indiana should focus more on the playing of basketball than the recruiting of players to play basketball, but that’s just my opinion. I’ve never taken one of college basketball’s greatest programs and overseen an eight-year stretch with two NIT wins, one NCAA T*urnament win, and one win in the First Four. Maybe there’s something Indiana’s athletic department knows that I don’t.

We will be cursing these programs (or coaches, or famous fans) at a later date. Considering doing charity drives to give fanbases an out.

**

The good stuff. NIT Bubble Watch. As always, we’re guided by our own Joe Stunardi’s college basketball model.

Guidelines:

• Too Hot: >5% NIT probability, <50% (OR: We know you’re on the bubble even if Joe’s model doesn’t)
• Too Cold: >5% NIT probability, <50%
• Just Right: >50% NIT probability
• Lock: 100% NIT probability

Conferences are ordered by average number of NIT teams. Conferences with one or zero teams in the picture are combined at the bottom. Like Indiana’s 2024 recruiting class.

ACC

• Too Hot: Virginia
• Too Cold:
• Just Right: Boston College, NC State, Florida State
• LOCKS: WAKE FOREST, PITT, VIRGINIA TECH, SYRACUSE

I was chastised a little for locking up Pitt after the Panthers’ respectable performance against North Carolina (Joe called me hasty), but let’s tell an easy truth: Pitt’s getting the NIT call. Jeff Capel’s thoughts on the matter:

Last year, I remember hearing, well, the early stuff doesn’t count, because we had an unbelievable win last year against Northwestern. We beat them by 28 points on the road. They ended up second in the Big Ten, so that’s a quad one win. We heard, well, that was November, or December, so it doesn’t matter. Now, all I’m hearing [about] is our Missouri loss. That was early December.

For those wondering, Pitt made the NCAA Tour*ament last year. Partly because it had that win over Northwestern.

Florida State and BC both got some help from the Indiana opt-out. FSU’s not terribly safe, but we think BC should be in.

Virginia gave that other tournament’s committee an out, and we wouldn’t mind at all if that resulted in the NIT getting Virginia in. Well, we’d mind. But only if we lost Indiana State because of it. St. John’s? Keep ‘em. (As I said yesterday, an NIT Final Four outside of MSG involving a Big East team would make me get bullied on The Internet.)

NC State! Entering the week, it looked like they wouldn’t make the NIT at all. Now, they’re in the mix for a home game, depending what goes down toNITe:

• North Carolina vs. NC State

On the one hand, we’d love to have DJ Burns in our tournament. On the other, we do not have a good relationship with UNC, and we know losing this would bother them. Let’s call it a win-win.

Big East

• Too Hot: St. John’s
• Too Cold: Xavier
• Just Right: Seton Hall, Providence
• LOCKS: VILLANOVA, BUTLER

St. John’s hung in there against UConn, and I’ll say it: They made Dan Hurley look like a loser again. For twelve months, Dan Hurley’s been in America’s good graces, to the point where his quarrels with Providence and Creighton fans were funny. Yesterday? He needed a diaper because a nicely clad St. John’s fan was getting on the ref. It would have been different if the St. John’s fan was in the third row, out of Hurley’s reach. But if you have a problem with the guy, fight him! Also, was Hurley lying when he said he wasn’t trying to get that guy kicked out? Does Hurley not know these games are televised?

Providence gave Marquette a game down the stretch, but it seems like we’re getting Providence. The question is which of Seton Hall and St. John’s come with ‘em. We’d like to have Seton Hall. St. John’s, we love you, but give us a minute to get our act together. (The Hinkle Fieldhouse Final Four will rock. We just need it to rock before we get St. John’s back. Because people won’t know how much it rocks until it happens. The bullying will happen way before then.)

Atlantic 10

• Too Hot:
• Too Cold: St. Bonaventure, George Mason, Saint Joseph’s
• Just Right: Duquesne, VCU
• LOCKS: RICHMOND, LOYOLA (IL)

We’re doing it.

We’re locking up Loyola.

We’ve seen enough.

Elsewhere, the A-10 got some help on its off day, again through Indiana’s opt-out. If more teams do decline to play in the NIT, running away like soft little [redacted, but it wasn’t going to be misogynistic], we could get all the way to UMass on the rolodex.

Today, in Brooklyn:

• VCU vs. Saint Joseph’s
• Duquesne vs. St. Bonaventure

We wouldn’t quite lock VCU up with a loss. Not right away. But they’re probably ours, and so is Duquesne, unless one of them wins two more in a row. What a paradox. It’s unbelievable to all of us that an A-10 team could win three or four games in a row, and yet one of them will!

The Hawks and Bonnies have a path, but margin might matter.

Big 12

• Too Hot: Oklahoma
• Too Cold:
• Just Right:
• LOCKS: CINCINNATI, KANSAS STATE, UCF

I think it’d be funny if there were so many bid thieves that Porter Moser ended up with us. Just when he thought he was in the clear, he and Oklahoma fans would be at each other’s throats again. I think it’d be funny! Sue me.

Pac-12

• Too Hot:
• Too Cold:
• Just Right: Washington, Oregon
• LOCK: UTAH

*Jean-Ralphio voice*

Is Oregon good or is the Pac-12 ba-aaaad??

Depending who you ask, Dana Altman is either wasting talent left and right or a genius who figures things out even while chronically under assault from the frailty of the human body. We don’t know which it is. Maybe we’ll find out more today:

• Colorado vs. Oregon

We don’t think we could still get Colorado. We don’t think that.

Big Ten

• Too Hot:
• Too Cold: Minnesota
• Just Right:
• LOCKS: OHIO STATE, IOWA

You know how many programs have won three or more NITs? Four. Or seven, if you count all the ones who had to vacate theirs. So seven.

Ohio State could be the eighth!

We would call Ohio State a blueblood.

Ohio State gave Illinois hell, furthering the legend of Jake Diebler, potential NIT champion. Indiana received hell from Nebraska, which pushed them to the bubble until Mike Woodson said goodbye. Minnesota got bigtime help from Indiana quitting the sport of basketball. Maryland remains below .500.

SEC

• Too Hot:
• Too Cold:
• Just Right: LSU, Georgia

We aren’t comfortable calling LSU or Georgia a lock, because Greg Sankey might swoop in and demand each murder one mid-major basketball player and feed him that player’s bones, but they should get the SEC’s automatic bids now that Chris Beard has decided his recruitment needs to take top priority.

Missouri Valley

• Too Hot:
• Too Cold:
• Just Right: Indiana State
• LOCK: BRADLEY

Start the chant, Bradley. Either chant. Your choice. Or you could do both! Same number of syllables. You could even do them in canon.

American Athletic Conference

• Too Hot:
• Too Cold: UAB
• Just Right: South Florida, SMU

Could UAB???????

After finishing off Wichita State yesterday, the Blazers are into the NIT mix for the first time in a long time. What we would give to get Andy Kennedy back on our sidelines and Tony Toney back on our court.

South Florida handled East Carolina, and they should be in. SMU is getting help from Indiana, but only so many teams can get help from Indiana, so don’t count on it just yet, Mustangs.

Today:

• South Florida vs. UAB
• Florida Atlantic vs. Temple

South Florida’s a lock with a loss. UAB could really make this thing if they win. FAU? If they can lose to Temple, we won’t count them out. It could be their own bid that gets stolen.

Mountain West

• Too Hot: New Mexico
• Too Cold:
• Just Right: UNLV

Is New Mexico done after beating Colorado State? Good question. The industry doesn’t seem positive just yet. There are some gaps between teams that don’t show up when you rank them 1–100.

• San Diego State vs. New Mexico

If New Mexico loses this one, then yes, formally done. If they lose? They’ll have a chance tomorrow. Richard Pitino’s won one of these before. The Pit’s a special place. Stars aligning in the desert?

Ivy League

• Too Hot: Princeton
• Too Cold: Cornell, Yale
• Just Right:

The Ivy League Tournament has arrived:

• Princeton vs. Brown
• Yale vs. Cornell

The Princeton game’s underway. They’re a lock with a loss, which looks…possible? Brown is vicious. Brown is a nuisance. I love Brown. Need to check their eligibility, but they might end up in our Appropriately Early NIT Bracketology come April.

The Yale/Cornell winner will be in realistic NIT shape, but I don’t know that I’d call it good. The loser will need help.

The Mavericks (but not the Mavericks, UT Arlington)

• Too Hot: Grand Canyon
• Too Cold: UC Irvine
• Just Right: Appalachian State, San Francisco

UC Irvine…oof. The Anteaters are still close after losing to the Beach. But they’re going to need a favorable look. Zot! Please, committee! Zot!!

Grand Canyon? One more chance.

• Grand Canyon vs. UT Arlington

WAC Vegas. Orleans Arena. A 1:40 AM finish back on the East Coast. Grand Canyon looking for an NIT lock. Could it get more NIT??

**

Total count:

• Too hot – 6 teams (10 yesterday)
• Too cold – 9 teams (11 yesterday)
• Just right – 17 teams (19 yesterday)
• Locks – 15 teams (11 yesterday)

I’m gonna piss my pants. (From excitement. Not recreationally.)