The bracket below is our best current prediction of the final NIT bracket. It is predictive of where things will end up. It is not a reflection of where things currently stand.
We aren’t currently running our full model. That will come soon, but in the meantime, here’s how this works.
If you notice any irregularities or have questions of any sort, please say something in the comments or on twitter: @joestunardi.
- If you want NCAA Tournament Bracketology, we have that too.
- Regions are ordered as follows: first overall seed; fourth overall seed; second overall seed; third overall seed.
- A single asterisk designates an exempt bid, awarded to the best available teams from certain conferences. A double asterisk designates an automatic bid, awarded to certain conference champions who lose in their conference tournament. We currently estimate five to be the likeliest number of automatic bids, and we’ve given these five to the conference favorites we estimate to be likeliest to receive them.
Last Updated: Preseason
Mississippi Region
| 1. Mississippi* |
| Virginia |
| 4. Northern Iowa* |
| Nebraska |
| 3. Louisville* |
| Ohio** |
| 2. Missouri* |
| New Mexico |
LSU Region
| 1. LSU* |
| College of Charleston** |
| 4. Louisiana Tech* |
| SMU |
| 3. UAB* |
| Georgia |
| 2. Northwestern* |
| Notre Dame |
Miami (FL) Region
| 1. Miami (FL)* |
| Wofford** |
| 4. San Francisco* |
| Nevada |
| 3. Seton Hall* |
| Syracuse |
| 2. Boise State* |
| Penn State |
VCU Region
| 1. VCU* |
| Appalachian State** |
| 4. Seattle* |
| Minnesota |
| 3. Arizona State* |
| South Carolina |
| 2. NC State* |
| High Point** |
Note: With the College Basketball Crown expected to take two teams each from the Big 12, Big East, and Big Ten, we have removed TCU, USC, Rutgers, Providence, UCF, and Butler from our projected field. In our projection, they would each be higher in line for an exempt bid than the recipient from their respective league.
Most everywhere I can see, Clemson is considered a “first 4 out” for the dance. So why such a middle seed in the NIT?
Thank you for asking this. Great question. Three parts to the answer:
First: Our model is forward-looking, so it looks at median future results. With the ACC struggling this year in most rating systems, Clemson doesn’t have a ton to gain in the ACC Tournament. Beating NC State or Virginia Tech wouldn’t help all that much, and they aren’t currently expected to do any more than that.
Second: The committees seem to use different criteria to select teams from what they use to seed them. The NCAA Tournament committee especially. For selection up there, it’s more about what teams have accomplished. (SOR, KPI, Q1 wins, etc.) For seeding up there, it’s more about how good teams are. (KenPom, NET, etc.) The NIT selection and seeding is more volatile, but last year – our only full NIT in the last three years – the committee leaned very heavily on NET and/or KenPom. That seemed to be almost the exclusive criteria. Those are two where Clemson struggles. It’s possible the committee will do a big swing back towards how accomplished teams are, in which case Clemson will rise and our model will be wrong, but that’s where we’re coming from.
Third: We’re updating again today, and I don’t know how fast those others are updating. It’s possible we’re just behind them.
Thanks!
Clemson has had 3 bad losses
Where is Samford or Furman in the nit
Samford didn’t win the SoCon’s regular season championship, so they don’t have a chance at an automatic bid and their numbers aren’t good enough to be in the mix for an at-large bid. Furman is in line for an automatic bid if they lose in the SoCon Tournament, but it’s more likely that they win, so we don’t have them in our projected field.
With the Texas Tech women’s team looking likely to host in the WNIT, what are the odds of them giving the men’s team a chance to host as well?
I have no idea, to be honest. I would think they’d work the schedule out and that it wouldn’t be an issue, but it’s possible one of the two teams would have to play on the road. I’d think that’d be up to Texas Tech, though, especially since the WNIT isn’t run by the NCAA.
Good Evening,
If the Oklahoma Sooners can beat TCU tomorrow, and then go 1-1 in the Big 12 Tournament, they would finish 16-17 for the season with wins vs Alabama, vs Kansas State, vs TCU, vs Seton Hall, vs Florida, @ Texas Tech, and @ Iowa State. Also, there is no formal requirement for teams to be .500 to earn a bid. To me, they would deserve a bid in this scenario. What are your thoughts?
Thanks!
It’s a great team sheet aside from that overall win/loss record, but there have been others like it in recent years with the same situation, and the committee hasn’t taken them, formal rule or not. We aren’t against it, but we won’t believe it ’til we see it.
Any chance SLU sneaks in with a strong A10 tournament?
There’s a chance for sure. They were our projected eighth team out as of this morning, which isn’t impossibly far out of the picture. Might need to win tonight to make it possible, though. More work to do from there, but that would be a start.
What are byu chances of making the nit?
Pretty bad, unless the committee surprises and only really looks at KenPom. They’ve got a lot of work to do. It’s probably possible, since they’d get to play Saint Mary’s if they won enough, but it’s a longshot.
Is Colorado back in with a win vs Utah?
Not necessarily. They’re favored to win by three on KenPom, so that’s what our model expects. It’ll depend on margin and what happens around them.
If they beat Utah + first round win against UW in the pac 12 then loss to UCLA in P12 QF would that potentially put them back in
Still would depend on action around them, but that would be a pretty solid finish. I would guess yes.
Sam Houston is currently 23-6 and beat Utah. Why aren’t they even mentioned
We have Sam Houston State projected to win the WAC Tournament. We expect them to be in the NIT if they don’t, though it isn’t for sure. We mention them every time we post our NIT Bracketology Rundown. Here’s Wednesday’s (today’s will be posted in a few hours):
https://thebarkingcrow.com/nit-bracketology-rundown-march-1st/
Is Cincinnati back in with a win on Senior day Sunday vs SMU? They lost on the last possesion at Memphis an NCAA team and dropped out? I assume it was other teams getting a big win more than an expected Cincy loss?
It isn’t that simple, but winning would definitely help. You’re right that it was teams around them knocking them out. Florida projecting to finish .500 again hurt them. They’re at about a 50/50 shot right now, though, so keep winning and they have a great chance.
My thought too but if cincy beats smu & temple they are in. They also project off season finish.. so they might expect us to lose to temple.
Smu & temple win with houston loss has to be in!
Cincy will move in with today’s update. Close enough to Colorado that it waffles based on little changes in NET/KPI/SOR/KenPom.
As unlikely as it seems, if Syracuse wins its last two regular-season games at home against Georgia Tech and Wake Forest, plus one game in the ACC Tournament to finish with 19 wins, would they at least be on the NIT bubble or would they have to make it to the ACC championship game in order to be considered for the NIT?
After losing at home by 20 points to Georgia Tech, the third-worst team in the ACC, it’s probably apparent that Syracuse (16-14, NET rank of 129), losers of four straight heading into their final, regular-season game at home against Wake Forest will be celebrating the 20th anniversary of their NCAA Championship by missing out on playing in a post-season tournament for the second consecutive season unless they somehow pull off a miracle by winning the ACC Tournament.
It looks like Syracuse fans are just about out of ifs.
IF BC wins their last two and a couple in the ACC tourney any chance they could make the NIT. I know they had some bad early season losses but the Virginia upset is fresh in my mind.
I think their NCAA Tournament odds might be better right now. It could be possible, but with their NET and KenPom where they are, it’s really unlikely, especially since they’re only playing Wake Forest and Georgia Tech.
I’m baffled how you have Wisconsin as a #1 seed, but exclude Nebraska from the field. As it stands at this moment Nebraska’s resume is no doubt better than Wisconsins, not to mention the H2H victory as well.
Sir or ma’am.
Wisconsin outranks Nebraska on every rating system the NCAA puts on team sheets. Wisconsin also has a better Q1 record by a lot (6-6 vs. 3-10). There are arguments to be made for Nebraska, but make them against Cincinnati or Vanderbilt. Not against Wisconsin.
Cincinnati Quad 1 losses are against #(14) Arizona, #(25) Xavier .# (1) Houston. (3) Houston, #(38) Memphis. I rate them as a sure in before Wisconsin and Nebraska. Nebraska and Wisconsin need to find another battle to fight.
Sir or ma’am.
You are using a team’s losses to justify their inclusion in the NIT, and not in the way where those losses are pushing them down into the NIT. Oregon State has 11 Q1 losses. Cincinnati can’t hold a candle to that!!!
What do you think of Nebraska odds to make it? 15-14 right now but a win vs Michigan st or at Iowa should help.
They’re really close in our model, close enough that it wouldn’t be very surprising if the model was wrong and they were ahead of Cincinnati or someone. Winning one of those two would be huge, but also might be necessary to finish at or above .500, which has been an unspoken NIT rule in recent memory.
I agree these next two games are big. Nebraska NET rankings sucks right now and a lot of fans complained that it dropped after a win vs Minny. I am not worried since we have a good chance to really improve that NET ranking with either a win tonight vs MSU or at Iowa or a win over both.
Any chance for Nebraska to make it in?
Definitely! They’re right on the bubble right now. NET and KenPom are hurting them a lot, but we aren’t sure if the NIT committee will weigh those as heavily as they did last year. Either way, would guess a 2-2 finish from here (counting the Big Ten Tournament) would make it hard to leave them out. That’s just a guess, but they’re very much in the mix.
What does Marshall have to do to get in?
There’s a lot of uncertainty where they’re at on the seed list, but regardless, it’s tight for them. They probably need a couple blowout wins and then some help. Likelier that they just win the conference tournament and get the Sun Belt’s auto-bid.
Thanks! Go Herd!
Good luck!
Does Oklahoma have a shot at the NIT?
The committee hasn’t invited a sub-.500 team in the current format. Our assumption is that Oklahoma’s out unless they can get to .500, then. If they can get there, they should be comfortably in, but they need to get there.
How would that get them in but 23-6 Sam Houston not even though they beat Ou
How does Florida get in over Vanderbilt. Vandy is 16-13 ; 9-7 in Conference, has beaten Florida twice, also has wins over Tennessee and Auburn 2 Tournament teams.
Also beat Arkansas and Pitt
Hey guys, this was updated on Friday. We don’t update our bracketology live. If you’re looking for how recently it was updated, the date’s at the top, above the first region.
Also Vandy lost to Grambling and LSU.
LSU also beat Wake Forest, and Arkansas. Grambling beat Colorado. You have two of those teams in that don’t have as many quality wins as Vandy. Colorados best wins are Tennessee and Texas A&M.. Vandy is hot right now. If they keep playing this way, they should be able to make the NIT.
That’s all fair. I agree with 95% of that. I don’t know if Vandy will be in our updated bracket tomorrow, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they are.
If you’re curious how the model works, there’s a link at the top that’ll take you to the explanation. It explains why Joe built it the way he did, based on previous NIT committees’ decisions, and how accurate he expects it to be. It’s pretty simple, because the committees can be wildcards, but a lot of it is KenPom and NET, two systems that aren’t high on Vanderbilt (the same ones helped Vandy get in last year). KenPom and NET are why, heading into this weekend, Colorado and Wake were in and Vanderbilt wasn’t. It’s all computers. The whole model is computers.
You’re right that Colorado also lost to Grambling. I keep bringing Grambling up because some Vanderbilt fans are acting like that loss (and now the LSU loss, very recently) didn’t happen. The computers know it did.
If I’m not mistaken, your previous update Friday 2/24 had Wake Forest in playing at a number 4 (VCU, maybe). Wake beat Notre Dame Sat. 2/25 by eight at home, but fell completely out of your NIT field. I don’t understand. Could you please explain?
Never mind, I read the wrong date. You dropped Wake out after their loss to NC State 2/22. I understand. No need for a reply. My mistake, sorry.
No, no, you’re right! Wake did drop out of our projection this weekend despite winning.
What happened with Wake is that neither of Villanova or Washington State was expected to finish at or above .500 entering the weekend. Each changed that with their most recent win, so each popped into our field. That pushed Wake out, but honestly, right now it’s as good as a coin flip for the Deacs. They’re our first team out.
Thanks for visiting the site!
Okay so Washington State is 14-15 and on a winning streak and playing Cal today…..77 NET….don’t forget about last year, they got a four seed and you didn’t even have them in. Also they made it to the final four of the NIT last year, that must help.
I mean, maybe? Subliminally? The NIT Selection Committee’s kind of wild.
We do remember last year. It was surprising that they got in when their KPI and SOR were around 100 (if not worse). We updated our model to account for last year’s Selection Committee’s approach, which was KenPom and NET-heavy. That approach should really favor Washington State this year IF they stick to it. If they change the approach, it’s more dangerous for Washington State, who again has bad KPI and SOR.
What’s the matter with you? You didn’t even have WAZZU in the field last year. Then they were selected, won three games and went to the semifinals in NYC. Now your making the same mistakes all over again. Your model was unbelievably wrong last year and your dead wrong again this year. The metrics used by people who know what they’re doing are the NET rankings and Ken Pom not the obscure metrics that you use. WAZZU is 69 in NET and 55 in Ken Pom and will be going to the NIT. Adjust your model and check your head.
Sir or ma’am.
Please read the teams in our bracketology, then please read the comment you replied to. You can do it. We believe in you.
I think Wisconsin joins this group as I feel they will lose their next two against Michigan and Purdue. I think they will even struggle against lowly Minnesota. I see them going 1-1 in the Big 10 tournament and see them going 18-14 or 17-15. An NIT bid is most realistic.
If you adjusted the model, shouldn’t they be in like they are over on Dratings?
Hi Lionel.
Every time we update our bracket, we put the date at the top. This one, which we posted Friday morning, says it includes games played through Thursday. Through Thursday, Washington State wasn’t projecting to finish at or above .500, so they weren’t in our bracket. I don’t know when DRatings last updated theirs. We’ll see if Washington State’s in ours when we update again tomorrow. It depends whether or not they’re favored over Washington once Washington’s finished their game today.
We publish a Rundown every time we publish a bracket. That Rundown addresses teams on the bubble, including all the teams that are trying to get to .500. Here’s Friday’s: https://thebarkingcrow.com/nit-bracketology-rundown-february-24th/
Fingers crossed!
What about Fordham
If the committee operates like it did last year (weighing NET and KenPom heavily), Fordham doesn’t have much of a chance. If it completely flips and heavily weighs résumé metrics like KPI and SOR, they have a good chance. If the approach is in between those two, they’re still probably on the outside looking in.
What about the Mid American Conference?
Toledo will take over an auto-bid slot in today’s update. Kent State is in the range where they should make it if they don’t win the MAC Tournament. So the league should at least get one bid, so long as Kent State doesn’t lose a bad one.
You don’t have Clemson (20-8; 12-5 and in fourth place in the ACC) in your NIT Bracket. Is that due to their NET ranking (82), being only 6-4 in Quad 1/2 games, having three Quad 4 losses and four losses in their past six games?
Something like that, Chatster. Although this bracket was after Sunday’s games, and they played well last night so they helped their case.
Note that after last night it’s 2 Quad 4 losses, due to other teams moving around. Also, even if SC loses its remaining games, they should rise to Quad 3 level.
I think it’s safe to say you can scratch Auburn off this list now!