The bracket below is our best current prediction of the final NIT bracket. It is predictive of where things will end up. It is not a reflection of where things currently stand.
We aren’t currently running our full model. That will come soon, but in the meantime, here’s how this works.
If you notice any irregularities or have questions of any sort, please say something in the comments or on twitter: @joestunardi.
- If you want NCAA Tournament Bracketology, we have that too.
- Regions are ordered as follows: first overall seed; fourth overall seed; second overall seed; third overall seed.
- A single asterisk designates an exempt bid, awarded to the best available teams from certain conferences. A double asterisk designates an automatic bid, awarded to certain conference champions who lose in their conference tournament. We currently estimate five to be the likeliest number of automatic bids, and we’ve given these five to the conference favorites we estimate to be likeliest to receive them.
Last Updated: Preseason
Mississippi Region
| 1. Mississippi* |
| Virginia |
| 4. Northern Iowa* |
| Nebraska |
| 3. Louisville* |
| Ohio** |
| 2. Missouri* |
| New Mexico |
LSU Region
| 1. LSU* |
| College of Charleston** |
| 4. Louisiana Tech* |
| SMU |
| 3. UAB* |
| Georgia |
| 2. Northwestern* |
| Notre Dame |
Miami (FL) Region
| 1. Miami (FL)* |
| Wofford** |
| 4. San Francisco* |
| Nevada |
| 3. Seton Hall* |
| Syracuse |
| 2. Boise State* |
| Penn State |
VCU Region
| 1. VCU* |
| Appalachian State** |
| 4. Seattle* |
| Minnesota |
| 3. Arizona State* |
| South Carolina |
| 2. NC State* |
| High Point** |
Note: With the College Basketball Crown expected to take two teams each from the Big 12, Big East, and Big Ten, we have removed TCU, USC, Rutgers, Providence, UCF, and Butler from our projected field. In our projection, they would each be higher in line for an exempt bid than the recipient from their respective league.
Joe,
Can I get your full synopsis on South Carolina’s standing for earning an NIT bid? I’ve seen how the NCAA and NIT operate against the Gamecocks and leave them out on most occasions. I’m thinking the game vs. Mississippi State will make or break this Frank Martin-coached team?
As of yesterday morning, South Carolina was projected to be ahead of three other at-large bids, and that was with the expectation they lose to Mississippi State in a close game. My best guess is that they’d be in with a close loss, potentially out with a blowout loss, and almost definitely in with a win. Their NET and their poor record in Q1 games are the factors expected to hold them back.
One important thing to remember is that the bubble is not static. As teams win and lose around them, South Carolina can rise and fall, and there’s still a lot of uncertainty surrounding how many teams will and won’t earn automatic bids, which could open or close at-large spots.
Joe:
Do you see any scenario where Drake makes the NIT?
Yes. They’re currently projecting to land right on the bubble and be our first team out, so if everything goes exactly as expected, they’ll have a decent enough shot at making it as is. Things that could help them are other bubble teams (Oregon, Florida State, St. John’s, etc.) suffering bad losses, or a lower than expected number of automatic bids being taken. Their chances are pretty close to 50/50 right now.
Ok, so question…..you have Dayton as a 1 seed hosting a region……..but the first round is March 15-16 which is the exact same days as the First Four which is played in Dayton. How do you think that affects things? Regional stay in Dayton, or do they drop them to a 2 seed to avoid the confusion?
Great question. This will actually be an issue if Dayton’s seeded anywhere between 1st and 4th, becasue the way the first three rounds work is that the highest seed hosts each individual game unless that team is unable to host. The last two times Dayton’s been in line for a home game, this issue’s come up, and Dayton’s played on the road. It’s possible they could also move the game to Thursday, but that would be a break from what they’ve done in the past.
So, in the case of today’s bracket, they’d play at Cleveland State on the 15th or 16th and then return home to host Iona or Virginia over the weekend.
Probably will not be on the same time or will not be playing in the same venue.
Joe, you have the Colorado Buffs dropping to a 6th seed in your new projection yet they JUST clinched the top 4 Pac 12 seed and a first round in the Pac 12 tourney next week. Let’s see what happens tonite against Utah in regular season finale but a win tonite for the Buffs gives them 20 for the season. Have to think –along with Oregon’s debacle against Wash/Wash St this weekend–that the Buffs deserve a much higher seed. A home game in the NIT or two?? Come on now GO BUFFS !
The projection does account for them being a narrow underdog tonight, so that factors in. Win, and they might rise. One thing to remember is that the committees don’t directly consider conference record—it can influence them, but it’s not as impactful as metrics on the team sheet. Overall, though, they have some work to do to clinch a home game.
Great dominating win tonite for the CU BUFFS Road win 20 win season. 4th seed and a bye in the Pac 12 tourney. Resume is building Look forward to your next model, Joe. Should be a wild epic tourney weekend next week March Madness in full effect. GO BUFFS
not “Hating” your new model for my CU BUFFS Though i’d swap the #4 and #5 seeds to have the Buffs grab that home game against NM ST–the resume of power conference play has to amount for that bump–IMO then a road game against Wyoming in the round 0f 16? OK–let this rip GO BUFFS, Onto the Pac 12 tourney this weekend (spoiler alert A potential quarterfinal Arizona-Az ST matchup with AZ St playing very hot right now. An upset win means? A semi final Pac 12 matchup against…..wait for it….The Buffs GO BUFFS
Buffs should rise if they beat Oregon, so that could get them that home game you’re looking for! They’d also do well to pull for no bid thieves up in the NCAAT. We’re currently projecting two bid thieves, and even dropping that number to one would push them up into home-game territory.
UNLV, been a semi-hot streak in conference play as of late. Any chance of making the NIT or is CBI more likely if they accept? Does it depend on how they do in the MWC tournament?
They’re currently projecting to finish as the 6th team out of the field, which is very much within striking distance. Would guess two more wins gets them in (one this weekend, one against Wyoming in the MWC Tournament), but might take three, and might only take one.
What are the chances that Princeton and / or Monmouth make the NIT? Assuming neither wins their conference tournament?
Princeton will make it as an automatic bid if they lose in the conference tournament (which is about 55% or 60% likely). Monmouth won’t make it no matter what happens in the MAAC Tournament.
Does St. John’s have a shot at the NIT ?
They do have a shot. I’m not sure exactly what it would take, but they’re definitely in the picture.
For what it’s worth, if K-State beats Oklahoma at home on Saturday they will add a home buy game on Monday to replace one lost in December to a covid cancelation. Win that game and they will have a .500 record for the season, at minimum.
I hadn’t heard that! Makes sense, smart move.
You’ve got Rutgers as a 4-seed in the NIT. They’re now 17-12 and 11-8 in sixth place in the Big Ten with wins over each of the other seven teams among the top eight Big Team teams and six Quad 1 wins.
Despite their low NET ranking (81 before their road win over Indiana on March 2), if they don’t make the NCAA Tournament, would you expect them to be given a higher seed in the NIT than the 4-seed you’re predicting?
They will beat Penn State o Sunday and secure a bid. No NIT
Rutgers will certainly move up in our next bracket from having beaten Indiana. It’s unclear how far they’ll move up, though, and it depends on teams around them as well. They’re an unusual case, being so successful in Q1 games but having an otherwise weak résumé. It’s harder to model how unusual cases will be treated by the committee because there isn’t as much historic data available. Personally, little would surprise me with Rutgers’s eventual destination.
How far are AAC teams like Temple and Tulane from getting consideration for the NIT?
They’re pretty far out of it. Far enough out that it’s better to hope on a run through the AAC Tournament than an NIT berth, though I’m not sure the NIT is impossible.
How far out is Drake?
It’s not impossible, but it’s comparably likely to winning the MVC Tournament, so might as well hope on that for now.
I have two questions….
Does anyone know if NIT will be 16 Teams like last year? Or is it Back to 32?
also anyone know if they are bring the CIT back this year?
Thanks in advance/
Not having South Carolina in is absolutely criminal, especially with Mississippi State being a 2 seed… NET is not everything. Look at a team like Vandy being ranked significantly higher than SC in the NET despite having a worse overall record, worse conference record, and having lost to SC twice. Such a joke that close losses are now being valued as high as wins.
Just a note on this – this bracket was posted Monday morning, and it’s our model’s projection of what the committee will do, not what we would do. That said, South Carolina was projected as our second team out entering games Monday. There’s a good chance they’re in the projected field in tomorrow’s update. You’re right that it’s NET holding them back in our model, but again, we don’t decide how the committees use NET.
Yep, I know it’s not a you problem or problem with the model. I’m just venting on general frustrations with the NET. Thanks for letting me know it may change and for putting this model together!
Appreciate it! Good luck to your Gamecocks.
Colorado. Love seeing the Buffs in there. But deserve a home game ! Let’s see what happens after this weekend against Utah. Thx joe. Go Buffs
They made it easy on us! Thanks for your patience.
Michael,
Has Santa Clara done enough to secure a NIT bid or is a win in the WCC tournament pivotal?
We’ll have a clearer picture tomorrow (installing some model updates today), but Santa Clara really needs to win their first WCC Tournament game to have a good shot at an NIT bid.
We haven’t heard anything official, but the rumbling is that it’s the normal 32-team tournament again, like it was pre-2020. The CIT has rebranded as The Basketball Classic, and it will also be 32 teams. The CBI will be 16 teams.
thanks.
will the basketball classic function the same way as the cit did?
and is it mid-majors only?
I’m not sure, to be honest, but that’s partially because I forget the exact spec’s of the CIT. It’s 32 teams this year, played on campus sites. I believe its mid-major only, partially based off of Happening Hoops’s latest bracketology for it: https://happeninghoops.com/2022/02/26/happening-hoops-cbi-the-basketball-classic-bracketology-7/
Where is Washington state?
Lost a couple of games in a row but were a ncaat bubble team before that.
They were our fourth team out when this projection was posted. That Arizona State loss hurt them a lot, and the bad overall nonconference performance is still holding them back.
I cry foul on your Feb 25 update, Joe! Having said that today is FEB 27 and the CU BUFFS just came off their biggest win in years. Steamrolling #2 ranked UofA Currently top 5 Pac 12 team headed for a solid 20 win season Where are my BUFFS in the NIT field of 32, Joe?!? I see Oregon a play-in NCAA team (beating #12 UCLA and probably landing in the #4 pac 12 slot) That means my Buffs HAVE to be in the NIT field. Come on now! :)–hit me
The question is, does blowing out Arizona at home outweigh getting blown out by Arizona State at home? (I think the answer will be yes, and that we’ll see Colorado in there tomorrow – haven’t run the model yet, though. Thanks for checking in!)
I look forward to your mode then!l A win against Utah in their last regular season game would give them 20. (One would think they would be slotted into the NIT). Pac 12 is wide open. March 9-13 tourney will be a wild one. GO BUFFS Thanks Joe.
you have the new NIT field of 32 projection up yet, Joe? GO BUFFS
No update today—my apologies! I thought we’d have the model ready for our daily bracketology, but we did not. There should be an update tomorrow. Sorry about that.
all good Look forward to seeing it MARCH 1—March Madness has begun GO BUFFS
How close is Santa Clara to making the NIT field? Should win their final two games of the season and one WCC tournament game. Two is a stretch but not out of the conversation.
Very close. They might be in with just two more wins. Three more wins *should* get them in, especially since it’s looking like they’ll play BYU in their first conference tournament game, but no guarantees.
What will it take to for the Ohio Bobcats to get into the NIT? I know they don’t have any huge wins other than Belmont, but the team only has one bad loss in the blowout against Kent State.
They’re not entirely out of it, but the twist with them is that if they lose again in the regular season, they’re probably done, and if they don’t they might win the MAC regular season title (with one more Toledo loss) and be in line for an auto-bid with a MAC Tournament loss. If they don’t end up in auto-bid territory, I’d guess they’d need to go 6-1 from here, but that could change.
Santa Clara will not play BYU in the WCC tournament. Santa Clara is on the opposite side of the bracket as BYU… they would only meet in the final. BYU would most likely have to beat San Francisco and Gonzaga to reach the final. Santa Clara is the #3 seed. They would have to beat St. Mary’s in the semifinal to get to the Final. 3 wins for Santa Clara (1st game in the WCC tournament for SCU is the quarterfinal based on automatic byes for #3 seed.) makes them WCC champs… so that would guarantee that they are in.
Yes. The comment you’re replying to is from February 22nd – things have changed since then, including Santa Clara getting the first two of those wins we were talking about. Since they won’t play BYU, it’s unclear now if getting the third will be enough – margin might matter. The only safe way to make the NIT would be to beat Saint Mary’s. If they don’t, they’ll need to be pulling for a lot of help elsewhere on the bubble.
What can realistically happen for WVU to make a play for a higher seed?
They have some great opportunities coming up if they can take advantage of them. The baseline expectation is that they go 2-4 from here, so if they can go 3-3, they’ll climb, and 4-3 or 5-2 could get them back around the bubble. Tough stretch, but better than projecting where they project with only cupcakes coming up.
How about Syracuse’s chances?
As of now, Syracuse might not be better than an NIT bubble team. They’re 6-1 in their past seven games to get to 15-12 and 9-7 in seventh place in the ACC with a NET ranking of 84. They finish against the ACC’s current top four teams: at Notre Dame (19-8, 12-4), home against Duke (23-4, 13-3), at UNC (20-8, 12-5) and home against Miami (19-8, 11-5). They need to win one of those four games to assure themselves of eligibility for the NIT with a 16-15 record before the ACC Tournament.
Considering that Joe Stunardi has three other ACC teams in his NIT bracket — Miami (NET of 65) and Notre Dame (NET of 57) as 1-seeds and Virginia Tech (16-11, 8-8, NET of 41 with a 71-59 win over Syracuse on February 12) as a 3-seed, Syracuse might have to do no worse than go 2-2 in their final four regular-season games and 2-1 in the ACC Tournament to be considered for the NIT, even if they’d be no better than a five or six seed at 19-15 and 13-10 in ACC games. If Syracuse got a four seed, then that would be the NIT’s way of trying to top their all-time, record crowd of 26,752 set on March 19, 2007 at Syracuse.
Syracuse will make the NIT as long as they beat Miami on Saturday, guaranteed.
Syracuse is now 15-15 and 9-10 in eighth place in the ACC with a NET ranking of 93 as of March 1. If they beat Miami in their final home game, then they should finish no worse than 16-16 and be eligible for the NIT. If they lose to Miami, then they’ll have to go 2-1 in the ACC Tournament to be eligible for the NIT.
NOTE: Except for the two seasons when Syracuse was ineligible and the one season when post-season tournaments were canceled due to the pandemic, if Syracuse misses the NIT in the only season when Jim Boeheim got to coach both of his sons, this would be the first time that a Syracuse team coached by Jim Boeheim would not have played in a post-season tournament, UNLESS they choose to play in the CBI Tournament in Daytona Beach (assuming that they’d be invited to the CBI if they miss the NIT).
How bad does Iowa state loss hurt Oklahoma as a #1 seed?
The model was expecting that, so it didn’t move Oklahoma too much. They slid to a #2 seed in today’s update, mostly because the margin of defeat was worse than expected. Their biggest challenge, from the NIT side, is going to be staying at or above .500. 17-16 is their median projection right now, but they really need to split these last four in the regular season.
Wow! Another Bad bad loss for OU. Sure you expected Tech to win, but at what point do they play themselves out of the NIT? As a homer i was hoping for a high seed and a couple of home games.
Not anymore…..
They’re still projecting to finish 17-16, counting the Big 12 Tournament, which with their schedule should be good enough. If they can win two of these next three, they should be in, and honestly, they might still get a home game or two. 2019 Texas was only 16-16 and they got a 2-seed.
Really appreciate your analytics perspective. Coach gets a pass for this season. Hard to explain the how a team can be down 7 at 1/2 time get within 3 in 2nd half and lose by 30. Thanks.!
What are your feelings on the unc tar heels?
Our model still sees them staying above the cut line, especially after yesterday’s win. If they win these next three, I don’t really see an NIT path, and even if they lose one of those three, they might stay in the NCAAT.
How close is Vandy, had some solid wins as of late?
Definitely in the mix. Might be in there tomorrow morning when we run the model, even. Were close on Friday.
Colorado Buffs Comin on strong Could be #5 in Pac 12 if the Buffs beat Stanford tomorrow Could be #4 seed if they finish with a 12-8 pac 12 record and that’s a 20-10 season Where are the Buffs for the NIT??
A great question. They don’t have much that’s objectionable on their résumé, but they’ve also only beaten one currenlty projected NIT-or-better team. My best guess is that they need to go 5-2 from here, including the Pac-12 Tournament, but so much else could happen so that’s a loose estimate at this point.
Thx for the reply, Joe, Buffs had a strong win against Stanford tonite. Moved up to 5th in Pac 12. Only a half game behind Oregon (who they split with). And Oregon has UCLA/USC next week A 4th place finish for the Buffs is highly realistic could very well go 12-8 in Pac 12 (and 20-10 overall) Would have to think a semi final appearance in Pac 12 tourney too would for sure would get them. Thoughts? GO BUFFS
Thanks for being here! That was a big win for them. If they can finish the regular season 2-1 from here, they might not even need to make the semi. Though that would certainly help.
look forward to your next NIT model I smell a CU BUFFS entry in there! Agree that a 2-1 over these next year has to put them in the field of 32. But–and not to speed—a win against #3 in the nation Arizona this upcoming weekend (have ASU and UofA comin to Boulder) could get a “last 4 in” convo goin. Thoughts on that Joe?
They’re our third team out in today’s update, but that’s off their median result, which is a 2-3 finish from here. Get that to 2-2 or 3-2, I’d think they’d be in the NIT.
The upset over Arizona would sure be something. Since it’s a home game, I’m not sure it’d be enough to vault them over the NIT, but it would put them in the conversation!
One game at a time. Starts with ASU this thur then the big one Saturday against UofA. With a 20 win season would be a crime NOT to see the CU buffs into the NIT. “First 3 out for you”. Let’s get that to change come next Monday Joe! Go Buffs
At about 9:45 PM on February 16, with four straight wins against Top 20 teams, at 16-9 overall and 10-5 in fifth place in the Big Ten, only a game out of first place, a 6-3 record in Quad 1 wins and only two ranked opponents to play in their final five games, it would seem that Rutgers should be a lock for the NIT.
If Rutgers somehow can win three of their final five games, even with losses to the two ranked teams they have to play, at Purdue and against Wisconsin at home, to finish 19-11 before the Big Ten Tournament, I suspect that Rutgers then would be close to the NCAA bubble.
I think you’re right! They’ve really come on strong. Wow.