The bracket below is our best current prediction of the final NIT bracket. It is predictive of where things will end up. It is not a reflection of where things currently stand.
We aren’t currently running our full model. That will come soon, but in the meantime, here’s how this works.
If you notice any irregularities or have questions of any sort, please say something in the comments or on twitter: @joestunardi.
- If you want NCAA Tournament Bracketology, we have that too.
- Regions are ordered as follows: first overall seed; fourth overall seed; second overall seed; third overall seed.
- A single asterisk designates an exempt bid, awarded to the best available teams from certain conferences. A double asterisk designates an automatic bid, awarded to certain conference champions who lose in their conference tournament. We currently estimate five to be the likeliest number of automatic bids, and we’ve given these five to the conference favorites we estimate to be likeliest to receive them.
Last Updated: Preseason
Mississippi Region
| 1. Mississippi* |
| Virginia |
| 4. Northern Iowa* |
| Nebraska |
| 3. Louisville* |
| Ohio** |
| 2. Missouri* |
| New Mexico |
LSU Region
| 1. LSU* |
| College of Charleston** |
| 4. Louisiana Tech* |
| SMU |
| 3. UAB* |
| Georgia |
| 2. Northwestern* |
| Notre Dame |
Miami (FL) Region
| 1. Miami (FL)* |
| Wofford** |
| 4. San Francisco* |
| Nevada |
| 3. Seton Hall* |
| Syracuse |
| 2. Boise State* |
| Penn State |
VCU Region
| 1. VCU* |
| Appalachian State** |
| 4. Seattle* |
| Minnesota |
| 3. Arizona State* |
| South Carolina |
| 2. NC State* |
| High Point** |
Note: With the College Basketball Crown expected to take two teams each from the Big 12, Big East, and Big Ten, we have removed TCU, USC, Rutgers, Providence, UCF, and Butler from our projected field. In our projection, they would each be higher in line for an exempt bid than the recipient from their respective league.
As of 5:00 PM on February 12, Rutgers has won three straight against Top 20 teams (Michigan State and Ohio State at home, Wisconsin on the road) after suffering three losses in two weeks in January to three of the worst Big Ten teams (Penn State, Minnesota and Maryland). They’re 15-9 overall and 9-5 in fifth place in the Big Ten. Although they have a terrible NET ranking (94 as of February 11), they’re 6-3 in Quad 1 wins and have three of their final six games against Top 20 (home against Illinois and Wisconsin; at Purdue).
If Rutgers can win three of their final six regular-season games, they’ll be 18-12 going into the Big Ten Tournament. Would that record give them a reasonable chance for an NIT bid?
I would think a 3-3 finish would definitely have them in, barring something really odd happening. They’re an unusual case, with how long ago the bad losses were and how Geo Baker missed parts of them, which makes me guess our model is probably low on them already at the moment, which would then mean 2-4 might also be enough (or mayyyyybe 1-5, but that could be pushing it).
With Syracuse picking up semi-steam and making it back to .500; do you think they start looking like a NIT contender yet?
Big to win these last two games, of course, but they probably need to keep it going a while longer to get above the cut line. The model’s expectation is that they finish the regular season 5-4 from here. Might need to make that 7-2 or 8-1 to get into the field. Five Quadrant 3 losses is just too many, and it’s hard to see any of those except FSU and maybe UVA getting up to Quadrant 2.
Syracuse is in the NIT today. Top 80 NET ranking and they draw.
I’d agree 100% after the 4 game win streak
Top 80? The NIT cut line’s always better than the 80th-best team in the country. Starting to think you guys aren’t true NIT fans. Also, “in the NIT today” doesn’t really matter here. We’re looking at who will be there come Selection Sunday. I want a 14-bid ACC as much as the next guy, but it’s got work to do, and that starts with the Orange.
Even if Syracuse (now 13-12, 7-7 in the ACC, NET of 83) wins its next two games against 9-14 Boston College and 10-14 Georgia Tech, they finish at 18-7 Notre Dame, home against 21-4 Duke, at 18-7 North Carolina and home against 18-7 Miami AND they’ll be without starting center Jesse Edwards who’s out for the season with a fractured wrist.
They can’t do any worse than 3-3 in their final six games before the ACC tournament. If they go 2-4 in their final six games, then they’d have to win at least two games in the ACC tournament to qualify for an NIT bid with a record of at least .500.
How does Va Tech get in but no UVA? Not Saying Uva is great they have struggled but they are better than Va tech.
As of Monday, when we released this bracket, Virginia trailed Virginia Tech in every rating system on the NCAA team sheet aside from SOR. Beyond that, their resumes are fairly similar, and Virginia did win the first leg of the home-and-home, but the Hokies’ big lead in NET and KenPom leads our model to indicate the committee would choose VT and would not choose UVA.
UVA is darn near on the NCAA bubble with the Duke win. You are right. this site is off.
This bracket was posted on Monday, before the Duke/Virginia game happened. Also, Duke isn’t that good.
are you fucking crazy duke beat gonzaga do better.
Yeah and FSU beat Duke and Pitt beat FSU and The Citadel beat Pitt, so is The Citadel your best team in the country, Mr. Balls? Duke’s not that good. Great win by Virginia, but not like they beat the Memphis Grizzlies.
WE ARE . . . MARSHALL!
You think Indiana really Has a shot with a 12-15 record? hope so.
Dayton have any chance?
Fifth team out in the model’s projection this morning. Definitely within the margin of error.
What’s the computer math of WKU going from #1 overall seed yesterday all the way down to #11. Seems a bit odd considering it always had them losing to UNT in the CUSA tournament.
Good question. Lots of little things—mainly the two bid thieves and our KPI/SOR/NET proxies overreacting to their win Friday. It’s only a two-seed line drop, which in a part of the field as tight as this one isn’t massive, but definitely still surprising. Might move more later when we put in the final KPI/SOR/NET.
What about UAB at 22-7 and 1st in C-USA West?
They’d probably need a lot of opt-outs. (And so far, there hasn’t been word on those, but maybe everyone’s keeping it under wraps?) Solid record, but their resume doesn’t have that much that pops. Fewer good wins, more bad losses than most of the teams in the field.
What do you think the reason is that Minnesota is getting in?
Played 15 games against Q1, won four of them. Played six against Q2, won three of them. Only one Q3/Q4 loss. Possible the model will be wrong, but aside from the sub-.500 thing, which is especially weird this year with the shortened non-conference season, history would suggest they’d make it.
Really?.. 3 BIG TEN teams all with losing records?
Kind of the only way for a Big Ten team to make it this year. If you manage a winning record overall, you’re playing in that league, and you aren’t playing a joke of a nonconference schedule, you’re in the NCAA Tournament.
We’ll see if the committee takes all of them. KPI/SOR/NET, which are the indicators our model uses, would indicate all three will make it, but we do miss one or two teams in the average year when backtesting our model. So take it for what its worth. I share some of your skepticism.
And no NC State?
They’re close. Were projected to be the fifth team out entering this morning. Would estimate 40% likely, but that’s back-of-the-envelope.
The Big 10/Big East Challenge?
Thank you for noticing my Alma Mater on a down year . St. Mary’s College of California. They might have a run if they can get their offense firing on all pistons.
Where is Belmont? I know they slid at the end of the season but still…at 26-4?
The model indicates they’ll need some opt-outs. It’s possible it’s wrong, but that’s what history indicates. Really a shame bigger schools wouldn’t schedule them.
No Quad 1 games, 1 Quad 2 game (a loss). I know scheduling isn’t entirely the school’s fault, but any Power 5 school would have Belmont’s record with that schedule.m
My pick is the 5 or 6 team winning it all 🤦🏻♂️🤦🏻♂️😉😉😉
Whoops! Thanks for catching that. Corrected now.
Davidson is ahead of several of these teams in the NET rankings and KenPom. Indiana is 12-15 on the season for gosh sakes. How can a team 3 games under .500 make any postseason tournament? I understand being a blue blood from the best conference in basketball this year, but 12-15?!?
The model relies mostly on KPI/SOR/NET. Backtesting it over the last few seasons, we find it should be expected to miss one or two teams in a 32-team field. With this year a unique situation in that teams played variable numbers of games and a certain type of game (nonconference, often buy game) was eliminated, it’s possible the model’s error margins will be greater. We don’t have any way to know.
With Davidson in particular, their KPI holds them back a lot. We don’t know if the committee looks at KPI, but we find it, like NET and SOR, to be predictive of their selections.
For whatever it’s worth, I’m skeptical of Indiana making it as well. Hopefully the data we get this year can help narrow the model’s error margin in future seasons.
Thoughts on Oregon State?
The Wyoming/Portland losses are probably too much. Better chance of winning the Pac-12 Tournament after tonight!
Maybe slide those Spiders in now that Duke has called it quits?
Our model does have them as one of the first teams up if there are opt-outs (haven’t seen Duke’s opt-out stated explicitly yet, so we aren’t altering the model on that front for now).
Minnesota in at 14-14? Adding todays lose to Ohio St, I think that is really pushing it.
Texas was 16-16 the year they won it, so the .500 record won’t be Minnesota’s issue. But they’re very much on the bubble.
Love that Penn State’s stock is rising!
Love to see them play a few more games. A few tough loses to Ohio State, MSU and Nebraska and who knows.
If Notre Dame beats UNC tonight, how far off the NIT bubble does your model have them? Would they even be in the typical field?
We don’t have that exact readout, but they’d probably be 10 or 15 spots out or so, still. My best guess on them is that they need to make it past Florida State, but that could change/might be wrong. And honestly, the typical field would only add six teams or so right now, because so much of what was eliminated was the automatic bids.
Nevermind
No PAC-12 teams projected?
None entering today, but Stanford was the first team out.