The Barking Crow

NIT Bracketology

NOTE: THIS IS NOT YET UPDATED FOR THE 2025–26 COLLEGE BASKETBALL SEASON. UPDATE COMING SOON. MORE INFO HERE.

The NIT Bracketology below is our best current prediction of the final NIT bracket. It is predictive of where things will end up. It is not a reflection of where things currently stand.

We’re running our full model again. Here’s how it works.

If you notice any irregularities or have questions of any sort, please say something in the comments or on twitter: @joestunardi.

  • Our model also gives NIT probabilities—who will play in it, how likely they are to win.
  • We’re calculating daily NIT Leverages—the NIT importance of each individual game.
  • If you want NCAA Tournament Bracketology, our model does that too.
  • Regions are ordered as follows: first overall seed; fourth overall seed; second overall seed; third overall seed.
  • A single asterisk designates an exempt bid, awarded to the best available teams from certain conferences. A double asterisk designates an automatic bid, awarded to certain conference champions who lose in their conference tournament.


Last Updated: Sunday, Mar. 16 – FINAL

If there are opt-outs announced more than a few minutes after the NCAA Tournament Selection Show, they may not be accounted for in our final bracketology. The sections below the bracket are listed in our model’s selection order, meaning we expect teams to be called in that order (with the sub-.500 teams on those lists possibly excluded).

Boise State Region

1. Boise State*
Utah Valley**
4. Georgetown*
Saint Joseph’s
3. UCF*
Georgia Tech
2. Wake Forest*
Arkansas State


UC Irvine Region

1. UC Irvine*
USC
4. Middle Tennessee*
Chattanooga**
3. Bradley*
Loyola Chicago
2. San Francisco*
Nevada


SMU Region

1. SMU*
Oklahoma State
4. LSU*
Santa Clara
3. North Texas*
TCU
2. George Mason*
Penn State


Nebraska Region

1. Nebraska*
Northern Colorado**
4. South Carolina*
St. Bonaventure
3. Stanford*
Oregon State
2. Dayton
Colorado

**


Only Kind of Out

Our NIT Bracketology can only contain 32 teams—the number of teams in the NIT bracket. However, these next teams each have a median team sheet which ranks above our simulations’ median cut line. What this mostly reflects is uncertainty regarding NIT opt-outs. Historically, there have hardly ever been any NIT opt-outs. Maybe one a decade, if that. Last year, they became more common, seemingly mostly due to the transfer portal. So, our model accounts for them, estimating that a few of the teams in this NIT Bracketology may opt out, leaving these next in line to take their place.

  • UAB
  • Saint Louis

For more on how our NIT Bracketology addresses opt-outs, here’s how our model works. Here are the teams we’re currently holding out of our field:

  • Northwestern (said they’re opting out of the Crown, NIT lumped in with that)
  • Iowa (fired Fran McCaffery, didn’t name an interim)
  • Pitt (announced they’re opting out)
  • Kansas State (said they’re opting out of the Crown, NIT lumped in with that)
  • Rutgers (announced they’re opting out)
  • Minnesota (fired Ben Johnson, didn’t name an interim)
  • Florida State (indicated their season is over post-Leonard Hamilton retirement)
  • Virginia (dismissed Ron Sanchez, their interim)
  • UNLV (fired Kevin Kruger, didn’t name an interim)

First Four Really Out

These are the real First Four Out, per our model.

  • Northern Iowa
  • Washington
  • Notre Dame
  • Cal State-Northridge

Next Four Really Out

These are the real Next Four Out, per our model.

  • Washington State
  • Samford
  • Providence
  • Furman

A Few More Options

In the event there’s a larger opt-out slew than anticipated or the committee doesn’t invite sub-.500 at-large teams, these teams could conceivably hear their number called:

  • George Washington
  • Belmont
  • Florida Atlantic
  • Jacksonville State
  • North Alabama
  • DePaul
  • College of Charleston
  • Cornell

NIT Bracketology and the College Basketball Crown

The College Basketball Crown is a new postseason tournament this year, with two guaranteed entrants from each of the Big East, Big Ten, and Big 12. Right now, these are the teams our model expects to receive Crown automatic bids, plus those who have indicated they’ll play in the Crown:

  • Indiana
  • Ohio State
  • West Virginia
  • Cincinnati
  • Villanova
  • Butler
  • Utah
  • Arizona State

The Crown has been billed as an NIT competitor, and it claims it will have 16 teams. However. It starts 15 full days after Selection Sunday, it starts seven days after the transfer portal opens, and it’s being played in Las Vegas, where attempts at filling arenas have mostly been unsuccessful (see: Pac-12 Tournament, 2023 NIT Final Four, most MTE’s). We don’t expect many teams to choose the Crown over the NIT, but it is a possible source of opt-outs beyond these six teams, something which is reflected in this NIT Bracketology. For more on that, look at the “Only Kind of Out” section above.

NIT Bracketology and Bid Thieves

Sometimes, our NIT Bracketology includes a team who’s also included in our NCAA Tournament Bracketology. What’s happening here is that our model is accounting for the likelihood of Bid Thieves. Our model doesn’t start the NIT Bracketology process by looking at the first team out of the NCAA Tournament. It starts by looking at the likeliest cut line between the NCAA Tournament and the NIT.

NIT Exempt Bids

Exempt bids are determined by conference. On Selection Sunday, the NIT committee will look at kenpom’s twelve top-rated conferences and then, conference by conference, award an exempt bid to the top-rated team who didn’t make the NCAA Tournament. To determine who the top-rated team is, the NIT committee will consult an average of kenpom, BPI, Torvik, WAB, BPI SOR, KPI, and NET—the seven formulas on the NCAA Team Sheets. The ACC and SEC will get two extra exempt bids in what’s believed to be a reward for their refusal to align with Fox Sports and commit two teams to the College Basketball Crown.

This setup sometimes creates a complicated situation for NIT Bracketology where one team is favored to win a conference tournament but that team is also likeliest to receive the conference’s exempt bid. What our NIT Bracketology does in these situations is, conference by conference, look at the likeliest number of teams to wind up in the NIT, and to then fill those slots in with the team or teams likeliest to wind up in the NIT.

NIT Automatic Bids

Automatic bids are awarded to any regular season conference champion who 1) is eligible for NCAA-sponsored postseason play, 2) didn’t win their conference tournament, 3) has an average ranking of 125 or better across those seven systems we listed above, and 4) didn’t already receive an exempt bid. We include these in our NIT Bracketology if they’re 50% likely or likelier, or if the “Only Kind of Out” section is empty. Sometimes, these wind up tied in with exempt bids, but all you should know there is that exempt bids supersede automatic bids, because exempt bids come with seeding and a home game.

NIT Bracketology Update Schedule

This is our final NIT Bracketology of the season. Thanks to all who’ve followed along. If you’re seeing this before the NIT tips off, go check our homepage for the NIT Bracket Challenge. We think it’s fun, and if you’ve read this far, we think you might think it’s fun too.

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872 thoughts on “NIT Bracketology”

  1. As of 5:00 PM on February 12, Rutgers has won three straight against Top 20 teams (Michigan State and Ohio State at home, Wisconsin on the road) after suffering three losses in two weeks in January to three of the worst Big Ten teams (Penn State, Minnesota and Maryland). They’re 15-9 overall and 9-5 in fifth place in the Big Ten. Although they have a terrible NET ranking (94 as of February 11), they’re 6-3 in Quad 1 wins and have three of their final six games against Top 20 (home against Illinois and Wisconsin; at Purdue).

    If Rutgers can win three of their final six regular-season games, they’ll be 18-12 going into the Big Ten Tournament. Would that record give them a reasonable chance for an NIT bid?

    Reply

    1. I would think a 3-3 finish would definitely have them in, barring something really odd happening. They’re an unusual case, with how long ago the bad losses were and how Geo Baker missed parts of them, which makes me guess our model is probably low on them already at the moment, which would then mean 2-4 might also be enough (or mayyyyybe 1-5, but that could be pushing it).

      Reply

  2. With Syracuse picking up semi-steam and making it back to .500; do you think they start looking like a NIT contender yet?

    Reply

    1. Big to win these last two games, of course, but they probably need to keep it going a while longer to get above the cut line. The model’s expectation is that they finish the regular season 5-4 from here. Might need to make that 7-2 or 8-1 to get into the field. Five Quadrant 3 losses is just too many, and it’s hard to see any of those except FSU and maybe UVA getting up to Quadrant 2.

      Reply

          1. Top 80? The NIT cut line’s always better than the 80th-best team in the country. Starting to think you guys aren’t true NIT fans. Also, “in the NIT today” doesn’t really matter here. We’re looking at who will be there come Selection Sunday. I want a 14-bid ACC as much as the next guy, but it’s got work to do, and that starts with the Orange.

            Reply

        2. Even if Syracuse (now 13-12, 7-7 in the ACC, NET of 83) wins its next two games against 9-14 Boston College and 10-14 Georgia Tech, they finish at 18-7 Notre Dame, home against 21-4 Duke, at 18-7 North Carolina and home against 18-7 Miami AND they’ll be without starting center Jesse Edwards who’s out for the season with a fractured wrist.

          They can’t do any worse than 3-3 in their final six games before the ACC tournament. If they go 2-4 in their final six games, then they’d have to win at least two games in the ACC tournament to qualify for an NIT bid with a record of at least .500.

          Reply

    1. As of Monday, when we released this bracket, Virginia trailed Virginia Tech in every rating system on the NCAA team sheet aside from SOR. Beyond that, their resumes are fairly similar, and Virginia did win the first leg of the home-and-home, but the Hokies’ big lead in NET and KenPom leads our model to indicate the committee would choose VT and would not choose UVA.

      Reply

          1. Yeah and FSU beat Duke and Pitt beat FSU and The Citadel beat Pitt, so is The Citadel your best team in the country, Mr. Balls? Duke’s not that good. Great win by Virginia, but not like they beat the Memphis Grizzlies.

            Reply

  7. What’s the computer math of WKU going from #1 overall seed yesterday all the way down to #11. Seems a bit odd considering it always had them losing to UNT in the CUSA tournament.

    Reply

    1. Good question. Lots of little things—mainly the two bid thieves and our KPI/SOR/NET proxies overreacting to their win Friday. It’s only a two-seed line drop, which in a part of the field as tight as this one isn’t massive, but definitely still surprising. Might move more later when we put in the final KPI/SOR/NET.

      Reply

    1. They’d probably need a lot of opt-outs. (And so far, there hasn’t been word on those, but maybe everyone’s keeping it under wraps?) Solid record, but their resume doesn’t have that much that pops. Fewer good wins, more bad losses than most of the teams in the field.

      Reply

        1. Played 15 games against Q1, won four of them. Played six against Q2, won three of them. Only one Q3/Q4 loss. Possible the model will be wrong, but aside from the sub-.500 thing, which is especially weird this year with the shortened non-conference season, history would suggest they’d make it.

          Reply

    1. Kind of the only way for a Big Ten team to make it this year. If you manage a winning record overall, you’re playing in that league, and you aren’t playing a joke of a nonconference schedule, you’re in the NCAA Tournament.

      We’ll see if the committee takes all of them. KPI/SOR/NET, which are the indicators our model uses, would indicate all three will make it, but we do miss one or two teams in the average year when backtesting our model. So take it for what its worth. I share some of your skepticism.

      Reply

      1. They’re close. Were projected to be the fifth team out entering this morning. Would estimate 40% likely, but that’s back-of-the-envelope.

        Reply

  11. Thank you for noticing my Alma Mater on a down year . St. Mary’s College of California. They might have a run if they can get their offense firing on all pistons.

    Reply

    1. The model indicates they’ll need some opt-outs. It’s possible it’s wrong, but that’s what history indicates. Really a shame bigger schools wouldn’t schedule them.

      Reply

    2. No Quad 1 games, 1 Quad 2 game (a loss). I know scheduling isn’t entirely the school’s fault, but any Power 5 school would have Belmont’s record with that schedule.m

      Reply

  14. Davidson is ahead of several of these teams in the NET rankings and KenPom. Indiana is 12-15 on the season for gosh sakes. How can a team 3 games under .500 make any postseason tournament? I understand being a blue blood from the best conference in basketball this year, but 12-15?!?

    Reply

    1. The model relies mostly on KPI/SOR/NET. Backtesting it over the last few seasons, we find it should be expected to miss one or two teams in a 32-team field. With this year a unique situation in that teams played variable numbers of games and a certain type of game (nonconference, often buy game) was eliminated, it’s possible the model’s error margins will be greater. We don’t have any way to know.

      With Davidson in particular, their KPI holds them back a lot. We don’t know if the committee looks at KPI, but we find it, like NET and SOR, to be predictive of their selections.

      For whatever it’s worth, I’m skeptical of Indiana making it as well. Hopefully the data we get this year can help narrow the model’s error margin in future seasons.

      Reply

    1. The Wyoming/Portland losses are probably too much. Better chance of winning the Pac-12 Tournament after tonight!

      Reply

    1. Our model does have them as one of the first teams up if there are opt-outs (haven’t seen Duke’s opt-out stated explicitly yet, so we aren’t altering the model on that front for now).

      Reply

    1. Texas was 16-16 the year they won it, so the .500 record won’t be Minnesota’s issue. But they’re very much on the bubble.

      Reply

    1. Love to see them play a few more games. A few tough loses to Ohio State, MSU and Nebraska and who knows.

      Reply

  19. If Notre Dame beats UNC tonight, how far off the NIT bubble does your model have them? Would they even be in the typical field?

    Reply

    1. We don’t have that exact readout, but they’d probably be 10 or 15 spots out or so, still. My best guess on them is that they need to make it past Florida State, but that could change/might be wrong. And honestly, the typical field would only add six teams or so right now, because so much of what was eliminated was the automatic bids.

      Reply

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