The bracket below is our best current prediction of the final NIT bracket. It is predictive of where things will end up. It is not a reflection of where things currently stand.
We aren’t currently running our full model. That will come soon, but in the meantime, here’s how this works.
If you notice any irregularities or have questions of any sort, please say something in the comments or on twitter: @joestunardi.
- If you want NCAA Tournament Bracketology, we have that too.
- Regions are ordered as follows: first overall seed; fourth overall seed; second overall seed; third overall seed.
- A single asterisk designates an exempt bid, awarded to the best available teams from certain conferences. A double asterisk designates an automatic bid, awarded to certain conference champions who lose in their conference tournament. We currently estimate five to be the likeliest number of automatic bids, and we’ve given these five to the conference favorites we estimate to be likeliest to receive them.
Last Updated: Preseason
Mississippi Region
| 1. Mississippi* |
| Virginia |
| 4. Northern Iowa* |
| Nebraska |
| 3. Louisville* |
| Ohio** |
| 2. Missouri* |
| New Mexico |
LSU Region
| 1. LSU* |
| College of Charleston** |
| 4. Louisiana Tech* |
| SMU |
| 3. UAB* |
| Georgia |
| 2. Northwestern* |
| Notre Dame |
Miami (FL) Region
| 1. Miami (FL)* |
| Wofford** |
| 4. San Francisco* |
| Nevada |
| 3. Seton Hall* |
| Syracuse |
| 2. Boise State* |
| Penn State |
VCU Region
| 1. VCU* |
| Appalachian State** |
| 4. Seattle* |
| Minnesota |
| 3. Arizona State* |
| South Carolina |
| 2. NC State* |
| High Point** |
Note: With the College Basketball Crown expected to take two teams each from the Big 12, Big East, and Big Ten, we have removed TCU, USC, Rutgers, Providence, UCF, and Butler from our projected field. In our projection, they would each be higher in line for an exempt bid than the recipient from their respective league.
How in the heck in Connecticut still not be listed?
Three things: First, their Strength of Record is much worse than what normally indicates a team is NIT-likely. Second, because the model looks forward, it’s weighting in the possibility they drop a tricky road game at Tulane this weekend or their first AAC Tournament game. Third, the model did have them more likely to make the NIT than to miss it entering today. That number’s on the College Basketball Probabilities page. Like you, I was surprised the model didn’t have them in the NIT when its readouts came back this morning. It’s a tight field, though, and while they’ve been playing great lately, their overall body of work has some weaknesses.
Texas A&M???? Big win Tuesday. Does a win today put them in? 10-8 in SEC
Solid win Tuesday, solid conference performance, solid opportunity today. The non-conference showing still really hurts, though, and it’s uncertain how much credit the SEC will get as a whole this year. Probably need quite the run to get in the picture.
What’s Purdue’s outlook if they miss the big dance???
Hey wondering about an update on the Mountain West Conference now as wyoming and boise state have both won in the opening rounds and not nevada or unlv. Any updates on where everyone here goes would be great!
Hey Riley, thanks for the comment! I don’t know enough about the CBI and CIT to say with much certainty where different teams will end up, but I’d guess Nevada, UNLV, and Colorado State will each be invited to one of those? I’m not positive, but that’s where they’re all pointed, if anywhere. Boise State still has a thin NIT chance (three percent entering today, according to our College Basketball Probabilities page), but it’s more likely they win the MWC Tournament and end up in the NCAAT. It looks like Utah State’s pointed right at that NIT/NCAAT bubble, but a loss to Wyoming tonight would almost definitely land them in the NIT.
Dang so not a great chance for that boise team. Would have liked to see them in NIT. Talented players and pieces. Could have been a dangerous NIT team if playing as well as they have done at times. Nevada and CSU’s losses were brutal at this time of year.
Yeah, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Boise State probability’s at zero tomorrow morning. We’ll see what happens, but not a lot of reason to be optimistic at this point. Tough year for the league on this end of things (though San Diego State’s sure helping the conference out overall).
do you think alabama would be better off discontinuing their men’s basketball program it’s just a waste of time even a high school team with a losing record could be this team they should pull this team from the sec tourny they’ll lose in the first round probably getting shut out in a blow out
Joe, you were really rolling for a while. You had a meltdown with this bracket. Minnesota isn’t making the NIT with a losing record, no team ever has, if they get to .500 they make it, otherwise no way. Second I guarantee you Syracuse is not missing the NIT under ANY circumstance, unless they win the ACC Tournament. Providence is in the NCAA Tournament and UCLA is real close. Not an NIT 3 seed as you have them here.
How is Purdue not here? With a road win, FINALLY, over Iowa, they should definitely make the NIT.
Our model has them narrowly projected to land in the NCAA Tournament at this point. It would be shocked if they were to miss both that and the NIT.
Agree 100%
Hey Peter, good to have you back. With Minnesota, as I think I’ve mentioned, we didn’t build our model to exclude .500 teams because, to our knowledge, there have only been three NIT’s so far since the below-.500 rule was repealed. We don’t know for certain whether the selection committee will stick with precedent or not. Given that in around 40% of our simulations Minnesota does finish at or above .500, and given that those scenarios would likely result in Minnesota receiving a one-seed or two-seed, their median projection of a three-seed here makes sense. With Syracuse, our model does have them more likely to make the NIT than to miss it (you can check out each team’s probability on our College Basketball Probabilities page). I’d venture that it wouldn’t be too surprising if they missed the NIT in the circumstance in which they lose each of their next two games, something that’s about 20% likely. If they split those games (50% likely) and there are 12 automatic bids, which is the median projected number right now, our model’s expectation that they’d be on the NIT bubble appears reasonable. As for Providence, our model did put them in its NCAAT Bracketology today, but the probability of bid thieves has them narrowly in this one as well. They’ve played well since December 21st. Before that, they were terrible. The committee says all games count the same, so again, looking at our model, the expectation that they’ll land on the bubble looks reasonable. Finally, UCLA: it’s going to be very hard to make the NCAAT with their NET at 75th, where it currently stands. It can improve, but there’s no guarantee it will, as they’ll likely be underdogs this weekend and again in the Pac-12 semifinals.
Joe, it doesn’t matter if UCLA has a NET of 205 if they win the PAC-12 reg. season outright they will make the NCAA Tournament GUARANTEED, maybe the play in game but they will be there. You must remember metrics are only a guide they aren’t the end all be all. The NET is a JOKE, Syracuse just won at BC by DD and their NET dropped 8 spots from 59 to 67. NC STATE lost there and their NET actually climbed a spot. Syracuse has 7 true road wins, Rutgers has 1 and a loss to Pitt and spots a NET of 32. There are some very funky things with the NET, specifically playing other teams with high NET ratings. Its almost like you can lose an infinite amount of games and your NET won’t drop as long as its against a NET top 50 team. See Purdue/Minnesota.
I’m not here to support or detract from NET—I’m just communicating what pieces of teams’ résumés are impacting our model’s readouts. In some cases, those pieces are reflected strongly in rankings like NET, KPI, SOR, etc. And I guess it’s worth saying, but our model does have an expected error margin, and that margin’s reflected in the probabilities it pumps out. Entering tonight, it had UCLA around 12% NCAAT-likely, but if our model had eight teams 12% NCAAT-likely, the expectation would be that one of those eight would make it. It’s possible UCLA’s that one-in-eight team. It’s possible they’re not. We’ll learn more from them on Saturday and next week, and we’ll see where the model lands.
Wow. No NIT love for St. John’s coming off the big blowout upset of Creighton? NET in the 60’s, KP about the same. Is it because you don’t think they’ll finish .500? KP still predicting them to finish regular season at 16-15, which would allow them to finish 16-16 at worst if they made a hasty BET exit.
Our model doesn’t consider whether or not teams are .500 because it isn’t a hard-and-fast rule (and the change was so recent that it’s hard to know how it’ll be followed each year at this point). With St. John’s, it does see a final record of 16-16 as the most likely individual result, but even with that, it’s projecting them as a seven-seed right now in the simulations with the fewest automatic bids. NET is predictive of seeding, but so are KPI and SOR, which aren’t as high on SJU. Beat Butler and the picture really changes.
Has Duquesne cracked the NIT list with the win over VCU?
Not quite in our model, but it does have them 30% likely to make it, so it wouldn’t be surprising if they pulled it off. Might need to beat Richmond, though, and/or make the A-10 semi’s.
How do you have St Louis in over Duquesne? They beat them twice and are ahead of them in the A10 and have identical records.
No Texas A&M. With Flaggs leading the way, i expect them with a +.500 conference record to make the NIT
We’ll see…their nonconference performance holds them back. And their best win is still just the road win over Alabama—most, if not all at-large teams have better results than that.
A&M playing well lately. Beat Arkansas and win a game in SEC tourney and I would think NIT bound with pretty good record considering it took awhile for the Ags to get Buzzing (you can use that) after a tough start against weak early schedule. Ags are night and day from early season until now.
That’s completely true, and it’s possible the NIT committee will give more weight to recent results, but because they don’t formally talk about that, and because the NCAAT committee explicitly says they don’t weight recent results more heavily, our model treats all games the same, no matter when they happened. They’ve definitely improved, though, and nobody in the SEC’s unbeatable.
Why not uconn?
They keep getting closer. The St. Joe’s loss seems to really be holding them back, but they have a solid chance—32% entering tonight. Thursday, of course, is a huge opportunity. Not make or break, but very impactful either way. Still believe they’ll need to win three more, total, to feel good about their chances, but it depends a lot on what teams around them do and how many teams get automatic bids.
UConn’s win over Houston should be a lock for NIT, right?
I’d still be wary of the trip to Tulane and that first AAC Tournament game, but I’d guess our model has them more likely in than out when it runs tomorrow morning.
No way a .500 Georgetown makes it in as a 5 and uconn is completely out at 18-12
This is a prediction of where things will land, not a reflection of where they’re currently at, and our model does have UConn 63% likely to make either the NCAAT or NIT (that number’s on our College Basketball Probabilities page). That said, I hear you, and am surprised the model is so down on UConn. My guess is that it sees the Tulane game and the first AAC Tournament game as risky, and that’s what’s holding UConn back (along with the poor SOR). As for Georgetown, our model doesn’t account directly for injuries, so it’s probably still overestimating their performance the rest of the way. We’ll see where the model ends up with UConn tomorrow, and more importantly, at the end of next week.
Uconn?
What about if Utah beats Oregon St and we’re would that put Oregon st
Oregon State would have fairly long odds in that scenario, but it wouldn’t be impossible for them to get a bid.
Watch out for UGA. They are starting to get hot with the Antman.
They’ve entered the mix over this recent stretch. We have them 21% likely to end up in the field. Not too bad considering where they were two weeks ago. Still work to do, though.
Minnesota is not getting in with a losing record. The NIT has put a few .500 teams in but I do not believe they have ever put a team in with a losing record.
It’s true that no sub-.500 team has been selected, but with no rule officially prohibiting it, we didn’t build our model such that it excludes teams with sub-.500 records. The rule was only abolished a few years ago, and with the move to 20-game conference schedules, Big Ten teams have historically difficult schedules right now. Personally, I’d guess you’re right, and that a sub-.500 Minnesota is more likely than not to miss the NIT, but without more data, we couldn’t justify building our model to exclude such a résumé. We’ll see where they end up—if they win one of these next two, .500 suddenly looks pretty likely. Thanks for the comment!
What are the odds loyola makes it
Close to zero, if not zero already. Much likelier they win the MVC Tournament and don’t have to worry about the NIT than it is that they get an at-large bid.
VCU?
Very close. 46% likely to make it, entering yesterday. Very likely they need to win these next two to stay in the mix, though.
How do you have St Louis in over Duquesne? They beat them twice and are ahead of them in the A10 and have identical records. VCU 46% chance? yet another team Duquesne beat, has a better overall record and is 3 games ahead of them in the A10. I think you need to redo the model.
Hey Dan, thanks for the suggestion. Duquesne has five “bad” losses (technical definition: Quadrant 3 or Quadrant 4; practical definition: games they had no business losing). Saint Louis has two of those. VCU has three. Both Saint Louis and VCU played more challenging nonconference schedules than Duquesne, and each has a better win than anything Duquesne can put on their résumé in the regular season (at Richmond for SLU, home against LSU for VCU). Looking ahead through the rest of the season, Friday night’s a tossup for the Dukes against Richmond, and after that, Duquesne’s more likely than not going to be an underdog in the A-10 quarterfinals. We could try to build a model that only considers conference record and head-to-head results, but it wouldn’t work very well, so we’re going to stick to metrics that actually have some predictive tendencies for how committees will seed teams. 30%’s a reasonable projection for Duquesne. I understand you might disagree. We’ll see where it goes the rest of the way.
Sorry, one more thing—VCU’s down to 26% NIT-likely now, roughly even with Duquesne, which makes sense. The 46% number you were referencing was from a comment posted Saturday morning, which is a long time ago at this point in the season.
Alabama has three winnable games to close the regular season. The feeling here is that they’ll need to will all three plus pick up two SEC tourney wins to make the big dance. Problem is that I don’t think they’re consistent enough to win five of six.
VCU will be playing in the CIT Tournament as a play in team against Kennesaw State Owls(1-28)…..just announced…..
I know we lost to Boston and Stenson at home (very bad losses) but I have to believe South Carolina is much higher than a 4 seed. I’m thinking two or three seed. A win over Bama tonight firmly places us in the First Eight Out of the NCAA tourney.
I think the gap between where our model has them and the current first eight out might be closer than it appears. Our model accounts for bid thieves, which are making up half a seed line right now, and it’s also looking at future results, where the regular season doesn’t present much upside for South Carolina after today. Assuming nothing too unexpected elsewhere this weekend, I’d guess you’re right about beating Alabama getting them onto the two-seed line, but there are a lot of pieces in motion.
Any chance for Bradley or Loyola out of MVC. I think Northern Iowa is a tourney team regardless of winning MVC tournament.
It doesn’t look very good for either for the NIT, partially because to get to that level on the seed list, they’d probably need to beat UNI, and if they do that, they’ll have won the MVC Tournament anyway. As for UNI, the recent losses have stung a bit. Their median seed in our projections right now is right on the cut line, so I’m a little pessimistic about their chances at an at-large NCAAT bid if they lose in St. Louis, but I do think they’ll at least be on the bubble if they lose. Thanks for being here!
UCONN?
Up to a #4 seed over here: https://www.dratings.com/predictor/bracketology/
Yeah, dratings is higher on them than our model is. I can’t speak for what they do, since I don’t know their methodology, but I can say that our model sees two risky road games for UConn coming up, a tough home game, and a poor SOR, though, as I think I’ve said in here, their NET and KPI both look good, which is a good sign for them. With so many teams around them facing better opportunities, with higher upside and lower downside, I’m not sure only beating ECU, Tulane, and USF (or whomever they draw first in the conference tournament) will be enough. It’s possible it will be, but for them to be confident, it still looks by my data like they need to beat Houston or win two in Fort Worth, in addition to taking care of business against ECU and Tulane. Fewer automatic bids would help. Overall, 30% chance as of today. But with our lowest four-seed at 56%, that’s not far away. Thanks for visiting the site. Keep the comments coming.
Not a single Mountain West team???? Your projection just got busted! Minimum 2 MWC teams will make the NIT, and possibly 4! Yet you all failed to put a single team from that conference in the NIT? Laughable.
Thanks for the comment, Jason! It’s possible the Mountain West will get two or more teams in, but at this point, our model only sees the chances of that happening at somewhere around ten percent. Nevada doesn’t have any good wins, and the San Jose State loss hurts. UNLV’s hardly above .500. Neither Boise State nor Colorado State is in the top 80 of NET, SOR, or KPI. Of course, Utah State’s about 50/50 to make it as things stand, and I suppose Nevada making a run in the MWC Tournament would involve knocking them off, so maybe that’s what you’re banking on? That, or you’re looking at brackets that don’t factor in automatic bids? Regardless, thanks for visiting the site, and we’ll see what happens. It’s possible you’ll be right. It’s about 10% likely you’ll be right.
Furman beat UNCG. So now? But do not count them out of the NCAA.
A really important win. Given it was only happening in 40% or so of our simulations, and given how close they were to the field on Monday, I’d assume they’ll be in there Friday, but we’ll see for sure. And true—three wins in Asheville away from not needing to look at NIT brackets.
Furman beat UNCG. So now?
Thoughts on Utah?
November hurt them, but they’ve still got a shot, even with the loss tonight. We had them at 33% or so entering the evening, so the chance won’t be wiped away entirely (would guess it’ll be somewhere near 20% come morning, but that’s a rough guess). The opportunities are still there on the schedule between the Colorado game and the Pac-12 Tournament. Hard to say exactly what they need to do at this point, not even knowing for sure where the cut line will be, but really looks like their outcome’s in their own hands.
Interesting that you have Providence as a 2 when in just about every other projection I’ve seen has them as an 11 in the NCAA. Many of them don’t even have them as a last 4 in.
Yeah, our model’s on the low end with Providence projections, relative to most (looks like they’re in about 75% of brackets on Bracket Matrix). I’d guess the biggest reason for this is that our model includes no calculation this year for recency bias. This might be a shortcoming of the model, but the data is inconsistent on how much recency bias impacts the selection committees, and the NCAA has stated explicitly that games matter the same amount no matter when they happen, which would hurt Providence, who was terrible in November and mediocre in December. Between that and 2-2 being their most frequent record the rest of the way in our simulations, the model thinks they’re only 35% likely to wind up in the NCAA Tournament field. It might be wrong, it might be right, its impressions might change. But that’s what’s going on. Thanks for the comment!
Does Duquesne have a decent shot of making the NIT?
Very slim chance. Probably better at this point to hope on winning the A-10 Championship. With that being said, the rest of the schedule is full of opportunities. Would probably take blowout wins to move the needle enough, but I wouldn’t call it impossible.
Now that Duquesne has hit 20 wins and have beaten the Bonnie’s ans GMU do you now think that they have an NIT shot?
The chance has improved, to the point where if they sweep these next two, they’re probably on the bubble. Still not likely, but they do have a chance, and it’s better than their chance of winning the A-10 Tournament, so apologies for that misleading sentence in the previous comment.
Why is Tulsa not in your projected field? Currently tied in the loss column for first in the AAC.
Our model has them just under 50% likely to make the field (the exact probability is available on our College Basketball Probabilities page). The Arkansas State loss is holding them back, but they’re definitely in the mix. Just not quite a strong enough résumé yet. Win these next three, and I’d guess they cross the cut line going into the AAC Tournament.