The bracket below is our best current prediction of the final NIT bracket. It is predictive of where things will end up. It is not a reflection of where things currently stand.
We aren’t currently running our full model. That will come soon, but in the meantime, here’s how this works.
If you notice any irregularities or have questions of any sort, please say something in the comments or on twitter: @joestunardi.
- If you want NCAA Tournament Bracketology, we have that too.
- Regions are ordered as follows: first overall seed; fourth overall seed; second overall seed; third overall seed.
- A single asterisk designates an exempt bid, awarded to the best available teams from certain conferences. A double asterisk designates an automatic bid, awarded to certain conference champions who lose in their conference tournament. We currently estimate five to be the likeliest number of automatic bids, and we’ve given these five to the conference favorites we estimate to be likeliest to receive them.
Last Updated: Preseason
Mississippi Region
| 1. Mississippi* |
| Virginia |
| 4. Northern Iowa* |
| Nebraska |
| 3. Louisville* |
| Ohio** |
| 2. Missouri* |
| New Mexico |
LSU Region
| 1. LSU* |
| College of Charleston** |
| 4. Louisiana Tech* |
| SMU |
| 3. UAB* |
| Georgia |
| 2. Northwestern* |
| Notre Dame |
Miami (FL) Region
| 1. Miami (FL)* |
| Wofford** |
| 4. San Francisco* |
| Nevada |
| 3. Seton Hall* |
| Syracuse |
| 2. Boise State* |
| Penn State |
VCU Region
| 1. VCU* |
| Appalachian State** |
| 4. Seattle* |
| Minnesota |
| 3. Arizona State* |
| South Carolina |
| 2. NC State* |
| High Point** |
Note: With the College Basketball Crown expected to take two teams each from the Big 12, Big East, and Big Ten, we have removed TCU, USC, Rutgers, Providence, UCF, and Butler from our projected field. In our projection, they would each be higher in line for an exempt bid than the recipient from their respective league.
What about SMU?
They were in a good position before the Tulane loss, but that hurt, and losing by as much as they did on Saturday didn’t help them either. Still very much have a chance (roughly a one in four chance), but could really use three wins in these next four games to push them back in a positive direction.
Thoughts on Clemson?
They were projecting as our second team out this morning. More likely they make it than that they miss it. Finishing the regular season 3-1 instead of 2-2 would go a long way in solidifying their chance.
Syracuse moves out of the NIT after a win on Saturday?
Yeah…my apologies for that. We trimmed our model’s error margins over the weekend, and in the process eliminated the source of some of that error, which affected different teams in different ways. In Syracuse’s case, it showed our model that their odds are lower than it previously looked. With that being said, the model still has them more than 50% likely to make the NIT. We won’t be doing any more error trimming this year, so don’t expect the same thing to happen again, but apologies for causing the confusion.
Syracuse moves out of the NIT?
What about Virginia Tech? If they get to 17 regular season wins would you put them in?
Our model has them finishing the regular season 16-15, then going 1-1 in the ACC Tournament, then finishing more than a dozen spots out of the NIT, so judging off that, I’d say that they probably need to get to 19 overall wins (regular season and ACC Tournament) to feel good about their chances. That, or a lot fewer automatic bids than our model’s currently projecting.
How much does Tennessee’s win over Florida today help their case to get into the field? Are they going to have to split next weeks games, or get a couple of wins in the SEC tournament to get in?
Without accounting for other teams’ games today, the win over Florida should have been enough to where winning two more somehow (splitting and winning one in Nashville being the most likely path) would leave them on the right side of the bubble. But that’s without accounting for other teams’ games today, and it’s with a lot of uncertainty about how many automatic bids there’ll be. Will know more tomorrow morning (expect an update on our College Basketball Probabilities page around noon), and will have an updated bracket here on Monday in the middle of the day.
What about Colorado State
What about St.Bonaventure???
Not very close right now. Our model says it’s more likely that they win the A-10 Tournament than that they get an NIT at-large bid, but it’s possible that if they go on a run in Brooklyn, the committee would take into account how much better their record is with Osunniyi on the floor. That’s something our model doesn’t account for this year.
Season ticket holder to CSU. I think they’re playing the 6th best ball in the MW right now.
I would say Nevada and Boise State should both be in the NIT running and they’re playing well right now. UNLV is playing better than CSU too, but their resume is worse.
I think CSU needs to win the last 2 and get to at least the semis of the MW tourney to get in. Or they need to get to the finals of the MW tourney to get in.
All three of those MWC teams (Nevada, Boise State, Colorado State) are on the outside looking in. Nevada has the best shot, but it’s only showing up as about a five percent likelihood right now. None are out of the running, but all are a long way out right now—need a low number of automatic bids and wins over each other/Utah State/San Diego State if they can get them. Winning the conference tournament is more likely for all three than making the NIT.
What about Georgia they won against Memphis,Auburn, and Tennessee. They also had a close lose to Michigan State in the Maui Invitation. Do you think they will make the nit.
They’ve got a lot of work to do. It’s not impossible, but they probably need to either finish the regular season 3-1 or win multiple games in the SEC Tournament to feel optimistic about their chances.
UGA is playing well right now. Sleeper… Ant Edwards. GO DAWGS !!
How about SMU?
They’re projecting to land right on the bubble. One of the first teams out. Big one today for their chances.
Don’t think Furman will make it?
They’re right there behind Texas and UConn as it stands in our model, which is projecting most likely a 2-1 regular season finish and an out in the SoCon semifinals. With that being said, I’d guess that when we trim the model’s error margins this weekend, they’re a team that will be helped, so I wouldn’t be surprised if they’re in this bracket come Monday, provided they beat Wofford tomorrow.
Furman beat Wofford but still not in. Furman and UNCG have identical records 23-6 and 13-3. Furman has a win over first place ETSU and UNCG lost both. UNCG a 3 seed and Furman not in? Furman plays at UNCG Wednesday
Furman is very close. Our model wouldn’t be surprised if they were selected (it has the likelihood at about 37% now). But, they’re out of the projected field right now, because their overall record, while impressive, doesn’t include as many impressive victories as those of others. They only have one Quadrant 2 win, and none in Quadrant 1, while UNCG has three across Q1/Q2. Bearing Wofford didn’t end up helping them very much in our model because they did it so narrowly, therefore underperforming expectations. Beating UNCG would help them a good amount, regardless of margin.
Interesting, UConn not in as of right now? 16-12 (7-8) and metrics such as BPI and POM that have them as 25% chances to make the NCAAT. Seems they’d be a lock for NIT providing they go 2-1 in final three games and then 0-1 in AAC tourney.
I’m not sure what you mean about that 25% number, but they’re far from an NIT lock if they go 2-2 the rest of the way. They’re within range of the NIT bubble—our model’s projecting them to be the 8th team out after last night, 25.9% NIT likely (7.5% for the NCAAT)—but with all those losses (two of them bad), no great wins yet, and mediocre schedule numbers, they’ve got work to do. Three more wins could do it, counting the conference tournament, but it’s more likely they need at least four. Their KenPom and BPI numbers are good, but those are less indicative of NIT selection than NET, SOR, and KPI, and while their NET and KPI are both fine, their SOR is bad.
UConn has a NET ranking of 66. Appears you have teams lower than that as “IN” the NIT. Thinking three more wins would certainly justify UConn has a NIT team.
The 25% that I was referencing was UConn’s chance of making the NCAAT, based upon their BPI and POM rankings. Since I’ve posted, those chances have increased to 33% for BPI and 48% for POM. These are based on historical BPI and POM rankings of teams in the past who have made or have not made the NCAAT. I’m surprised that your model would have them as only 26% into the NIT given the fact that they will be somewhat close to an NCAAT birth, especially if they beat Houston at home tonight, where they are currently only 2 point underdogs.
Got it, Jeff! Thanks for clarifying. I can’t speak beyond the last few years as far as hard numbers go, but across 2018 and 2019, SOR and KPI (and NET, in 2019) have been better predictors of who makes the NCAA Tournament than BPI and KenPom. KPI and SOR don’t look very kindly on UConn at this point, most likely because they’re emphasizing the St. Joe’s loss and the lack of capitalization in the 15 Q1/Q2 opportunities so far (just four wins in those games). Our model does have them 47% likely to make either the NCAAT or NIT entering today, so it wouldn’t be at all surprised if they were to crack the NIT bubble. Still, probably need to beat Houston to feel good about the chances, and if they do beat Houston, they’ll need to avoid slip-ups against Tulane and whoever they play first in the conference tournament.
Thanks Joe. Now that UConn handily beat Houston, a top 25 and #18 NET team, I’m assuming if they take care or business vs Tulane on the road and the first round AAC tourney game, they’re a lock for a host game in the NIT? Can’t see the committee leaving them out barring an 0-2 finish here. Honestly, ignoring my fandom, they’re probably more likely to make the NCAAT dance than to miss the NIT at this point.
If they win both those, I’d be surprised to see them on the road to open the NIT. Not sure where our model will stand on them come morning, but I’d guess it has them in the field, with upside remaining.
Do you have any thoughts on Georgia Tech? They’re only a .500 team (7-8 ACC), but they’re schedule the rest of the way seems to offer a lot of potential for a decent finish. If they play well down the stretch they could be in line for a first round bye in the league tourney.
Going to have a post up on them later today. Didn’t realize their appeal was yet to be resolved until last night—my apologies. They’re projecting as one of the first teams out now that we have them back in consideration in our model. Don’t know if the committee will treat them differently because of the pending penalty, but they’re definitely in the mix.
Thanks for the reply! Does your model see them as most likely going 3-2 to finish the regular season?
Thanks for being here! That’s the most frequent result for them. Gets murkier in the ACC Tourney just because the middle of the league’s so bunched right now, but in the plurality of simulations they go 4-3 overall the rest of the way.
Will GT be able to be in the postseason? They are banned. Guess it’ll depend on appeal process.
We’ve been in touch with their athletic department, and they’re eligible for consideration until the NCAA says otherwise. Their chances aren’t great, though. Might need to win all three over the upcoming homestand to really be in the mix.
Georgia Tech has a postseason ban
That ruling has been appealed and the ban can’t go into effect until after the appeal is heard, which likely won’t occur before the end of this season.
BTW, that punishment was ludicrous. Two players received a total of $2400 of benefits, for which they were suspended a total of nine games, and a recruit was taken to a strip club and given $300. Only one person officially connected to the program was involved (former assistant coach Darryl LaBarrie). The NCAA decided that was worth the following pound(s) of flesh: 1-year postseason ban, reduction in scholarships for four years, restrictions on recruiting, vacating wins, and a monetary fine. If these same things happened at a traditional powerhouse I guarantee the penalty would be much lighter. The penalties on GT are pretty similar to Louisville, WHICH HIRED AN ESCORT SERVICE FOR PLAYERS.
Sorry for the rant. In short, the NCAA sucks.
What do you think about Mizzou’s chance to get in the NIT?
Saturday helped, but it’s still quite a long shot. Our probabilities have it at 6.8%, and while those have a pretty wide margin of error at this point (aiming to trim that by Monday), Mizzou’s résumé doesn’t stand out as one that will look better to our model after the error trimming. With that being said, every game from here on out is winnable, even if they’re often going to be an underdog. Win four of these next five, or maybe even just three, and they’ll have a fighting chance going into Nashville.
What does San Francisco have to do to get in? Are they already cooked?
I wouldn’t say they’re cooked just yet, but the way it’s looking, they probably either need to beat Gonzaga tonight or find their way onto the SMC/BYU side of the WCC bracket to have much of a shot.
How many wins does a P5 team need to make the NIT?? My best guess is 17. Would .500 overall cut it?
It depends. For a team like Minnesota, who played a solid non-conference schedule, a brutal conference schedule, and has a few very good wins, finishing 16-16 would probably be enough, as it was for Texas last year when they got a 2-seed. For a team like Utah, who lost to Tulane in non-conference play and doesn’t get a great scheduling boost, finishing 16-16 would likely not cut it. Overall, yes, 17 is probably a good number to look for with power conference teams, but it’s by no means a guarantee. Too many other things matter.
Your thoughts on Ole Miss?
Helps that they don’t have any bad losses, but they just don’t have enough wins at this point. Need to go on a little run to have a shot. Maybe even a big one.
What about Georgia they won against Memphis,Auburn, and Tennessee. They also had a close lose to Michigan State in the Maui Invitation. Do you think they will make the nit.
What are your thoughts on Virginia Tech?
They were projecting as the seventh team out entering tonight. Need to pick up an extra win or two beyond what’s expected to feel very good about their chances—beating UVA or ND would help, winning two instead of just one in the conference tournament would help, catching a break and having fewer than twelve automatic bids would help. Basically, play like they did before the first BC game.
Now that Virginia Tech is 15-11 do you still see them getting into the NIT. If we win 17 regular season games that would put us at 17-14 on the year.
After last night, our model has Virginia Tech projected as the twelfth team out, even though it believes the most likely finish would leave the Hokies 18-15 after the conference tournament. The home loss to Boston College really hurts them, and even with Maui and the win over Michigan State, their nonconference schedule has a lot of dead weight.
Joe, I’ve been a bracket prognosticator since 1987 and can tell you every team that got jobbed out of bids to teams that didn’t deserve them like when Middle Tennessee St. was given a bid over defending national champions Louisville in 1987. The committee said well Louisville just had too many losses (14), forget about the fact they were 10 places higher in RPI, had an SOS of 30 versus, wait for it 186 of Middle Tennessee. Billy Packer said it was good for college basketball to see them get a bid over Louisville, maybe even if they didn’t deserve it. Well Louisville was so pissed they became the first team EVER to say thanks but no thanks to the NIT. So what I’m saying is losses DO MATTER, no matter the NET/RPI/SOS of a team, no team has made the Tournament as an at-large with a worse record than 16-14. Georgia and Villanova both did it. Minnesota and Purdue will both have more losses than that and the committee will say we just can’t give them a bid, just watch.
That’s really cool, Peter. Sounds like you love college basketball. We do too. It’s worth noting that the 20-game conference schedule is a fairly new phenomenon, and this year’s Big Ten is especially deep, so we’re still gathering data on how the committee will treat teams who’ve played such a gauntlet—nobody knows with much certainty. Still, we’ll be trimming our model’s error margins this week and this weekend, and I’ll be interested to see if that process and results like Purdue’s tonight in Madison change our model’s estimations regarding the teams you’ve called out. Thanks, as always, for visiting The Barking Crow.
OMG, I almost missed this, Minnesota is a 9, not if Richard Pitino was making the NCAA Tournament selections himself would the Gophers be a 9 seed. They are about as close to being a lock NIT team as anybody listed on your bracket, except maybe Notre Dame, who already accepted their bid, okay maybe not quite.
Thanks for coming back, Peter! Good to hear from you. The most likely respective paths for Minnesota and Purdue the rest of the way involve two more regular season losses each, then likely a win and a loss for each in the Big Ten Tournament. It’s possible our model’s overestimating what that would get them, but history does indicate the committee would look at teams with five or six Q1 wins each, fine if not great overall W-L records, and strong strength of schedule marks and put them in that 7-10 seed range. As for USC and Arizona State, they’re both right there, but it’s not particularly likely either will add anything very strong to currently bubbly résumés. We’ll see how our model reacts to results the rest of the way, though. It’s possible some of the discrepancy between what you think will happen and what our model thinks will happen is due to Big Ten schedules containing so much upside, and Pac-12 schedules containing so much downside. Our model’s hedging against all possibilities and putting teams in the middle of their possible paths. The high ends for the Big Ten teams you call out are higher than those of the Pac-12 teams you call out, and the low ends for the Pac-12 teams are lower than those of the Big Ten teams. In short…we’ll see!
So maybe I’ll backtrack a little on Utah St, as long as they don’t lose to any Mountain West bums in the next two weeks and get beat again by the Aztecs in their Tournament final they squeak in the NCAA Tournament. NC State just lost to BC, they aren’t making the Tournament. You still have USC and Arizona St. in here, USC isn’t even on the bubble and Arizona St. is real close to locking up a bid, very small chance either of them are in the NIT. You have Purdue as a 7 seed in the NCAA Tournament, did you go to Purdue with Jerry Palm? They won’t be a 7 even if every single team below them in the bracket lose out. When they lose to Wisconsin this week they will be completely out of just about all bracket projections. People are WAYYYYY to high on the Big Ten this year, I don’t care what the numbers/metrics say, you need to actually watch the games.
What about Boise State? Do they need to make a run in the conference tournament to have a shot at a NIT bid? They have good wins over Utah State, BYU and Colorado State.
I’d guess they’re definitely in the conversation. Our computer has them as the eleventh team out right now, but knowing some of our model’s current shortcomings (which we’re patching up), they might be a few spots closer than that. I’d say the goal for them should be winning out in the regular season and winning their MWC Tournament opener. Do that and I’d have to assume they’ll be on the bubble, with a huge opportunity against most likely Utah State or SDSU in the semi’s.
Where does Tulsa fall? Competing at the top of the American, beat Memphis by 40, beat Wichita State.
BTW, Oklahoma State alumni, so I like the projection. Team playing good ball right now. Finally healthy. Would love to see get in to the NIT.
As of this morning, Tulsa’s our model’s sixth team out. Great conference performance, but the Arkansas State loss hurts, and the weak non-conference schedule holds them back. With that being said, they’re in a good spot in that if they win their home games, they should have four games with upside between their road games and the AAC Tournament. For OK State—I wouldn’t want to play them right now or in March. If they beat the Sooners Saturday, they’ll be in a very good position.
I’d say after Saturday’s tough loss my Vols are likely NIT BOUND this season.
Are they in at 16- 15 regular season or do you think we need a minimum of 17-14 regular season to get in?
Secondly you See a Tennessee – Memphis rematch potential or will the schools ask to avoid that ?
My best guess with the Vols is that 16-16 with the SEC Tournament loss coming to Arkansas (or better) would get them in, assuming the number of automatic bids doesn’t climb too high (currently projecting 12, but as many as 16 wouldn’t be shocking). It’s tight, though, so 17-15 might be necessary to be safe, and they’ve got to avoid doing something like losing to Texas A&M in their SEC Tournament opener.
Whoops—forgot to respond to the Memphis/Tennessee rematch piece. The committee won’t have them play in the first round, but beyond that, it’s certainly possible. The way the bracket’s built is mostly geographic, so since they’d both be close to the same higher seeds, it’s more likely than randomness would imply that they’d be in the same region. Memphis probably needs to win at least one between their Houston/Wichita State/SMU games, though, which is dicey.
Thanks , appreciate the site and response!
Go Vols
Thanks for being here! Good luck to the Vols.
Don’t be putting Colgate in the NIT, you think they are going to lose on their home floor in the Patriot league Tournament? They have lost one game in two years at home. Arizona St. will make the Tournament as will USC. You think the Big 10 gets 12 teams in the Tournament, no chance. Utah St. you have making it, probably not, same goes for NC State, you need to look at history boss man. Oh and Oklahoma St. can’t make the NIT if they are UNDER .500, which they will finish.
Thanks for the comment! Our model (which you can check out on the College Basketball Probabilities page) has Colgate as 42.5% likely to make the NIT. More likely than not, they win the Patriot League tournament, but three games in a row is rarely easy, so since they’re one of the most likely NIT automatic bids, we include them both here and in our NCAAT Bracketology. Similarly, our model agrees that the Big Ten more likely than not will land below twelve teams in the NCAA Tournament, but our model is giving the median projection for each individual team—it isn’t choosing teams based on conferences, even if it thinks it’s likely at least one of Minnesota/Rutgers/Indiana ends up in the NIT. The powers that be got rid of the under .500 rule with the NIT prior to the 2017 tournament, so a 16-17 OK State (their most likely final record) would at least be allowed to be considered—fairly uncharted waters that our model, built on history, has no great way of evaluating. As for Utah State and NC State…we’ll see! Personally, I think our model may be too low on Utah State—one of their two potential Q3 or Q4 losses came without Queta. But you may be right, and any loss not to San Diego State would be devastating for them. As for NC State, our model does have them more likely to make the NIT than the NCAA Tournament, but it’s very close. Having a home loss to UNC as their worst loss is better than what a lot of teams can offer.