The 2025 NIT bracket arrives in less than 36 hours. Our NIT Bracketology and College Basketball Probabilities are updated heading into today.
A caveat about the probabilities: In addition to specific unique cases we want our model to understand better in the future (i.e., Ohio State being only two games over .500), our blanket uncertainty variable within the model is too low. It’ll be increased by 50% going into tomorrow, but it’s labeling some teams as 100% NCAA Tournament-likely or 0% NIT-likely when they aren’t. Our apologies. This is model malpractice, and we will fix it for next year. With those specific unique cases…we list them in our NCAA Tournament Seed List.
Now. What changed in our NIT Bracketology today:
Moving In: Nebraska, Oklahoma State, Oregon State, Arkansas State, Loyola Chicago
For NIT Bracketology purposes, we determine who’s in and out of the NCAA Tournament through the same subjective process we use on our Seed List: We look at our model’s starting point, reference the consensus, and look for reasons our model may be over- or under-estimating certain teams’ chances.
Our model has Ohio State in the NCAA Tournament, Indiana in the “Bid Thief Seat” (there’s still one out there in the majority of simulations), and San Diego State in the NIT. We’re flipping San Diego State and Ohio State in that list.
What does that mean for the NIT? With Ohio State out of the NCAAT and Indiana expected to get bid thieved, those two become the Big Ten’s automatic bids to the College Basketball Crown. This makes Nebraska eligible for the NIT, provided there isn’t an additional legal requirement between Big Ten teams and the Crown that hasn’t been reported yet.
Elsewhere, we’ve confirmed enough opt-outs to move four teams into our field from below. Welcome back, Oklahoma State, Oregon State, and Arkansas State. Welcome, Loyola.
Moving Out: San Diego State, Boise State, Iowa, Pitt, Akron
We aren’t convinced Boise State’s in the NCAA Tournament if they lose today. So, don’t expect Colorado State to go unreplaced should the Rams win the Mountain West Tournament.
Akron’s now less than 50% likely to claim an automatic bid, favored today to win the MAC Tournament.
Iowa and Pitt are both out for reasons we will explain right now.
Opt-Outs (and Opt-Ins)
We’ve had a few opt-outs, as was expected. Is this annoying? Of course. Is it hopefully only a temporary norm? Yes. Is it the current norm? Yes. Should we expect more opt-outs? Probably a few.
We include an “Only Kind of Out” section on our NIT Bracketology, a list of who we think will fill spots vacated by opt-outs and not filled by exempt and automatic bids (which Texas, Yale, and Akron could all still claim). Currently, our model has that list three teams long: UNLV, Nevada, and Georgia Tech.
I don’t know that we’ll see three more opt-outs, but I’ve been a little overly optimistic in the past. I think it’s weird for basketball coaches to decline to coach basketball, and I think it’s funny that programs like Pitt are so committed to recruiting rather than playing basketball. That bias definitely comes through, and we can acknowledge it.
UNC’s a team who’ll get a lot of attention if they don’t get the NCAA Tournament call, and I don’t know what they’ll do. Tate Frazier talked about that situation this week on Free Hoops. Call it 50/50.
USC’s a team we could see opting out, sub-.500 and coming off a frustrating, travel-heavy season. We don’t know that they’ll even get invited, but for the purposes of the NIT bubble, that’s effectively the same thing.
Colorado’s only 14–20, and while that’s quite the 14–20 (15 Q1 losses, 5 in Q2), we don’t know that the committee will invite the Buffs.
We could see some other teams losing too many players to compete. We could also see UNLV opting for the Crown if given the choice, since the Crown is evidently resorting to recruiting Mountain West teams and the Crown will be played in Las Vegas.
In short, there’s a lot of hope for Northern Iowa, Saint Louis, and UAB, who are all in our First Four Out. There’s a little hope for Washington State, in our Next Four Out. I think Nevada and Georgia Tech will ultimately get the call.
Teams in our field who’ve indicated they’re playing (last checked last night):
- Nebraska (I’ve seen no indication about whether they’d choose the Crown over the NIT, but I believe they’d choose the NIT, for reasons explained here)
- SMU (soft indication from Andy Enfield, not guaranteed)
- Bradley
- Stanford (soft indication from Maxime Raynaud, not guaranteed)
- Oklahoma State (Crown/NIT preference unclear, but they should prefer the NIT if they get invited)
- St. Bonaventure
- Chattanooga
- Northern Colorado
Teams in the mix who’ve expressed interest in playing:
- Nevada (who also said the NIT pays more than the Crown)
Teams who’d be in our field who’ve indicated they’re opting out, beyond the Crown automatic bids:
- Northwestern (cited Crown layoff, but decision went for NIT too)
- Iowa (didn’t name an interim after firing Fran McCaffery)
- Pitt (released a formal statement)
- Kansas State (cited Crown layoff, but decision went for NIT too)
- Utah (choosing Crown)
- Arizona State (suspect NIT invite—our model might be overestimating their NIT chances and Colorado’s—but choosing Crown anyway)
- Minnesota (didn’t name an interim after firing Ben Johnson)
Teams who’d be in the mix who’ve indicated they’re opting out:
- Florida State (referred to season as over, following Leonard Hamilton’s retirement)
- Virginia (dismissed Ron Sanchez, its interim coach)
Nobody else has said anything which points one way or the other, at least as of the time we checked last night.
The Next 36 Hours
We’ll update our NIT Bracketology again tomorrow morning, then again after tomorrow’s games are complete, then again after tomorrow’s NCAA Tournament Selection Show.
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