This is going to be a short post, because we’ve fallen a little bit behind. Our NIT Bracketology, NCAA Tournament Seed List, and NIT/NCAAT Probabilities are all updated to account for yesterday’s games. Things to know:
- Minnesota moved into our projected NIT bracket, with Northern Colorado moving out. Having now reached the Big Sky Championship, Northern Colorado is no longer more than 50% likely to claim an NIT automatic bid.
- The Big 12 NIT probabilities are a little messed up because our model’s still overestimating how much NET will react to each game. I’m surprised this is an issue after not being an issue last season (to my recollection), but we’ve turned those reactions down by another degree. In the meantime, Utah’s still in line for the Big 12’s second Crown bid, but our model thinks UCF is in that spot. The NIT Bracketology accounts for this. The probabilities don’t. There’s a huge Big 12 pack at that point in the curve, so if Kansas State or UCF pulls off an upset today, I’d expect them to pass Utah. UCF might even pass them by playing Kansas close.
- We continue to monitor opt-outs and the factors that lead into them as teams are eliminated from their conference tournaments. So far, we’ve seen nothing to indicate anyone is opting out of anything. That doesn’t mean it won’t happen. Steve Lutz reportedly indicated Oklahoma State would like to play in the NIT if invited (they’re right on the bubble, per our model). Arizona State is sticking with Bobby Hurley, which isn’t accounted for in today’s simulations but will be accounted for in tomorrow’s.
- We did end up including all those changes we discussed yesterday in our seed list. This doesn’t mean we changed our model. We allow ourselves to deviate a little from the model within the seed list. It’s part of our process of improving the model year over year.
- One very small thing, going back to Steve Lutz: I haven’t seen the exact quote, but I’d be interested in whether he specifically said “NIT” or if that’s just what the beat reported. (Maybe the question included the word NIT?) My best guess is that a lot of coaches have not yet learned about the Crown, and that even if Lutz specifically said “NIT,” it’s not meaningful yet. But we’re curious if anyone will prefer the Crown to the NIT. Early indications are that few will, but those indications are few and far between. Bread crumbs.
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