NIT Bracketology: Twelve Teams, Five (?) NIT Spots Up Top

This is our NIT Bracketology rundown for the morning of Friday, March 15th. If you’re looking for the most current rundown, visit our homepage.

It was a big, big day on the bubble, and it’s left us with something like the following twelve teams vying for—most likely—either six or seven NCAA Tournament spots:

  • Mississippi State
  • Oklahoma
  • St. John’s
  • Seton Hall
  • Colorado
  • Virginia
  • Texas A&M
  • New Mexico
  • Indiana State
  • Pitt
  • Providence
  • Ohio State

I pulled the order for this list from Joe Lunardi’s bracketology at ESPN. ESPN’s bracketology is around the middle of the pack in the industry in terms of accuracy, but it’s more accurate than our model’s, it’s available quickly after results, and it helps set the boundaries of the mainstream bubble conversation, for better or worse. ESPN has the cut line landing between Texas A&M and New Mexico, provided a non-FAU team wins the AAC Tournament and there are no other bid thieves.

Of these teams, nine are still playing. Kenpom, which our model uses for its simulations, has Colorado, Virginia, and New Mexico as favorites today and Mississippi State, St. John’s, Texas A&M, Pitt, Providence, and Ohio State as underdogs. Our model does not reflect where things stand “if the season ended today.” It’s a projection of where the eventual bracket will land. Ironically, this is a little easier to conceptualize in December than it is during Champ Week, but the bottom line is that part of why our model lines the teams up in the order that it does is that it expects Colorado and New Mexico to beat tournament teams tonight. With that established, here’s our model’s order of those twelve, comparing each team’s median outcome:

  • Colorado
  • Texas A&M
  • Virginia
  • New Mexico
  • Oklahoma
  • Mississippi State
  • Indiana State
  • Providence
  • St. John’s
  • Seton Hall
  • Ohio State
  • Pitt

If we use the same cut line as ESPN (and we do think that’s the likeliest cut line, though how we get there isn’t as certain as the AAC path implies), it goes between Indiana State and Providence. That’s how we get Providence, St. John’s, and Seton Hall as our NIT 1-seeds, with Cincinnati ahead of Ohio State for the fourth spot on that seed line. Thoughts on how accurate that is:

1. We know our model doesn’t do a good job of comparing best wins. We don’t know if it should have to do this—there are plenty of ratings systems that account for those wins, so by comparing them again after using the ratings as a basis, the committee is making them count double—but we don’t design the committee process. We try to replicate it. And something we haven’t figured out a great way to replicate is how the committee separates Seton Hall’s win over UConn from Texas A&M’s over Tennessee.

2. We know our model’s “bucket” approach to different thresholds of Q1 and Q2 results is imperfect. It gives a large benefit for five or six Q1 wins and no benefit for four. It treats a .500 Q1/Q2 win percentage the same as a .750 Q1/Q2 win percentage. It doesn’t account explicitly for Q3 and Q4 losses. Again, there’s a reason behind this—the committee operates with a lot of weird thresholds and sometimes counts a certain result as many as four times, given all the variables it impacts—but it can lead to overrating a team who narrowly edges the threshold in a few categories and also happens to have five Q3 losses.

3. Going off of 1 and 2, we’re conscious of our model being too high on Texas A&M and too low on Seton Hall. Our model is not as good as Joe Lunardi or DJ Bauer or Dominic Lese, and while it isn’t much worse than Jerry Palm, it’s probably not even quite as good as him. So, we trust Lunardi, Bauer, Lese, and Bracket Matrix. Texas A&M’s in NIT danger. Seton Hall’s safer than our model implies.

4. The consensus right now among the best bracketologists out there appears to be this:

  • Oklahoma is safe.
  • Seton Hall is probably going to make the field.
  • Mississippi State, Colorado, Virginia, and St. John’s are all in good shape, but bad losses today (by opponent or margin, depending on the matchup) could change that.
  • Pitt, Providence, and Ohio State haven’t caught up to the pack just yet. Pitt has the best opponent of the three today, Ohio State’s the likeliest to win today, and Providence is impacted by how the committee evaluates a Tyler Kolek-less Marquette, assuming Kolek doesn’t play (I haven’t checked for news there).
  • That leaves Texas A&M, New Mexico, and Indiana State for the final one or two NCAA Tournament spots (max. 2). Texas A&M and Indiana State are both highly unusual bubble résumés, making them hard to project. New Mexico is also unusual, in that there could conceivably be some hesitation among the committee, even at the subconscious level, to place a sixth Mountain West team in the field. Alternatively, there could be some pro-New Mexico bias as a reaction against that feared anti-New Mexico bias. The committee is extremely human, and their reasoning is harder to understand than that of the College Football Playoff committee, whose decision we might not always agree with but always comes with a clear rationale. This is partly a factor of how big the NCAA Tournament is, and how many hairs must therefore be split. It’s also probably a result of the committee being given too much time. Check out the Wikipedia page for group polarization. The committee might be better served if everyone arrived in Indiana this afternoon.

Where does that leave our model? In the same place it began. It’s doing its thing over there, and we don’t touch it unless there’s something really unprecedented going on, like a head coach saying he doesn’t want to play if his team’s invited to the NIT. Here’s where it projects the NIT today:

Last Four In, First Four Out, Etc.

On the low side:

  • Last Four In (from the cut line going upwards): SMU, Florida State, Boston College, San Francisco
  • First Four Out (from the cut line going downwards): Cornell, Yale, St. Bonaventure, Minnesota
  • Others in the mix (>7.1% NIT chance, below NIT field, not in our field or in the First Four Out): Georgia, Memphis, Maryland, Xavier, UC Irvine, Minnesota

On the high side:

  • Last Four In (from the cut line going downwards): Providence, St. John’s, Seton Hall, Cincinnati
  • First Four Out (from the cut line going upwards): Indiana State, Mississippi State, Oklahoma, New Mexico
  • Others in the mix (>10% NIT chance, above NIT field, not in our field or in the First Four Out): [vacant]

We’re arbitrarily setting that “in the mix” line at 7.1% on the lower bubble because John Templon has Minnesota in his field, and we think his projection is a good resource, like ours. We don’t include Colorado or Texas A&M on the upper bubble, but at least Texas A&M is on that bubble in the real world, as we talked about above.

As always, we account for bid thieves by looking at the median cut lines in our model’s simulations. Today, those remain 45th and 83rd, meaning if there was a master seed list covering both tournaments, the 45th overall seed would be the last NCAAT at-large and the 83rd seed would be the last NIT at-large.

Conference Tournament Favorites (Reverse Bid Thieves)

Given where those cut lines stand and how many teams sit between them, we don’t have any reverse bid thieves today. All conference tournament favorites who sit in NIT at-large territory are, in today’s bracketology, not in the NIT. More likely than not, this isn’t what happens. Our last two teams in the field—SMU and Florida State—both have a median NIT selection rank of 84th in our model’s simulations. That implies that bid thievery is likely to impact the NIT. Princeton is only roughly 50/50 to win the Ivy League Tournament. VCU and Duquesne are only a little better than 50/50, combined, to win the A-10 Tournament.

The three current conference tournament favorites in NIT at-large bid territory if they lose:

  • Princeton
  • Grand Canyon
  • VCU

Model Talk: Memphis, Georgia

First, to address Penny Hardaway’s comments from yesterday: Memphis would safely be in the NIT were they expected to accept the invitation. Given Hardaway’s comments and (to our knowledge) the lack of any subsequent official statement, our best guess is that the NIT selection committee will simply not invite Memphis. This is how most “declined” NIT bids have worked over the years. In 2018, Georgia’s players voted not to play after Mark Fox was fired. Georgia had already submitted the necessary paperwork to play, but the NIT committee honored the players’ wish. Last year, Texas Tech had players entering the transfer portal after the disintegrating end to the Mark Adams era. The NIT committee did not invite Texas Tech. North Carolina, to our knowledge, is the last team in the last twenty years or so to decline an actual NIT invitation.

Still, the possibility of Memphis reversing course exists, and since we don’t know how big that possibility is, we’ve placed its probability at 40%. We told our model to consider Memphis in 40% of simulations and take them out of the other 60%. We chose this ratio in order to 1) keep Memphis out of our bracketology while 2) avoiding overstating other bubble teams’ probabilities as much as possible. We would rather err on the side of teams being positively surprised by the committee’s decision than negatively surprised.

As for Georgia.

Out of all the teams not in our NIT Bracketology today who also aren’t expected to make the NCAA Tournament, Georgia has the highest NIT probability, according to our model. Yet, Georgia is not in our model’s First Four Out. What’s happening? Two things.

The first thing is that three of the four teams ahead of Georgia—Cornell, Yale, and St. Bonaventure—are all very likely to win their conference tournaments, at least compared to the eliminated Bulldogs. Our model goes by “median rank by the NIT selection committee if they were ranking every eligible team, 1–351.” That includes ranking every NCAAT automatic bid. So, Cornell and Yale and St. Bonaventure’s respective median outcomes, in our model’s eyes, are not conditional upon those teams losing in their conference tournaments. They’re the true medians. Most likely, these three teams will each either play their way up into the NCAAT or down past Georgia.

The second thing is that our model uses two alternative selection formulas for 20% of its simulations. Our core NIT selection formula tracks very well with the last two years of NIT committee decisions, but that’s a small sample upon which to bet the house. Given the NIT committee has, relative to the NCAAT committee, operated more in line with the predictive ratings (NET, kenpom) than the résumé ratings (SOR, KPI), both alternate formulas favor a more résumé-based approach. This helps Georgia. Georgia performs well in those 20% of simulations. They make the NIT nearly 50% of the time in those. So, Georgia is reliant on the NIT committee changing its approach. (By contrast, Minnesota would benefit from a more extreme shift towards kenpom.)

The Graveyard

As always, we want to talk about who’s losing what because of the change in the automatic bid rules. We think it’s important to track the real impact of the changes, or at least our closest estimate of that impact. So:

  • Losing an automatic bid (teams who would have made it in last year’s format): High Point, Toledo, Eastern Washington, Little Rock, Eastern Kentucky, Central Connecticut State
  • Gaining a bid (teams we think are receiving those bids instead): SMU, Florida State, Boston College, San Francisco, UNLV, Washington
  • Losing a home game (teams who would have been seeded and had the option to host last year): Butler, Bradley
  • Gaining a home game (hosting the first round in our projection only because of their automatic bid): Mississippi, LSU

Not all non-power conference teams are created equal. We believe strongly in the high-major/mid-major/low-major dichotomy (as opposed to calling teams only power conference schools and mid-majors). In total, then, what we have is this:

  • Six NIT spots shifting away from low-majors. Three of those go to mid-majors. Three go to high-majors.
  • One NIT home game shifting away from a mid-major. It goes to a high-major.

For the Archives

TeamConferenceMake NCAA TournamentWin NCAA TournamentMake NITWin NIT
Wake ForestACC0.0%0.0%100.0%12.4%
VillanovaBig East0.0%0.0%100.0%9.2%
UtahPac-120.0%0.0%100.0%5.2%
IowaBig Ten0.0%0.0%100.0%3.4%
Virginia TechACC0.0%0.0%100.0%2.7%
ButlerBig East0.0%0.0%100.0%2.1%
UCFBig 120.0%0.0%100.0%2.0%
BradleyMissouri Valley0.0%0.0%100.0%1.5%
RichmondAtlantic 100.0%0.0%100.0%0.5%
SyracuseACC0.0%0.0%100.0%0.4%
MississippiSEC0.0%0.0%99.8%0.7%
Kansas StateBig 120.5%0.0%99.6%1.3%
Loyola (IL)Atlantic 100.0%0.0%99.5%0.3%
CincinnatiBig 121.5%0.0%98.5%10.1%
WashingtonPac-120.0%0.0%98.5%1.7%
IndianaBig Ten4.4%0.0%95.2%0.4%
OregonPac-125.9%0.0%94.1%1.4%
UNLVMountain West0.0%0.0%94.0%0.6%
Appalachian StateSun Belt0.0%0.0%91.4%0.6%
NC StateACC12.1%0.0%87.9%1.0%
Seton HallBig East13.7%0.0%86.3%2.2%
Ohio StateBig Ten16.2%0.0%83.8%5.5%
South FloridaAmerican20.3%0.0%79.0%0.3%
PittACC23.8%0.0%76.2%6.1%
DuquesneAtlantic 1024.6%0.0%69.6%0.3%
VCUAtlantic 1030.5%0.0%68.2%0.4%
San FranciscoWCC0.0%0.0%66.7%0.6%
Boston CollegeACC0.0%0.0%62.2%0.3%
St. John’sBig East41.5%0.2%58.5%7.3%
LSUSEC0.0%0.0%52.3%0.4%
SMUAmerican0.0%0.0%48.6%0.4%
ProvidenceBig East51.5%0.0%48.5%1.8%
PrincetonIvy League53.0%0.0%47.0%1.7%
Florida StateACC0.0%0.0%46.0%0.2%
Indiana StateMissouri Valley54.9%0.0%45.1%4.3%
GeorgiaSEC0.0%0.0%43.0%0.4%
MemphisAmerican0.0%0.0%40.3%0.3%
Grand CanyonWAC64.7%0.0%35.3%0.8%
Mississippi StateSEC70.4%0.2%29.6%2.9%
New MexicoMountain West72.0%0.2%28.0%3.1%
OklahomaBig 1279.3%0.1%20.7%1.7%
MarylandBig Ten0.0%0.0%16.7%0.4%
CornellIvy League19.0%0.0%15.5%0.0%
YaleIvy League24.9%0.0%13.0%0.1%
XavierBig East0.0%0.0%12.3%0.3%
UC IrvineBig West58.9%0.0%9.2%0.1%
St. BonaventureAtlantic 1022.9%0.0%8.0%0.0%
MinnesotaBig Ten0.0%0.0%7.2%0.1%
TCUBig 1295.0%0.2%5.0%0.6%
North TexasAmerican14.8%0.0%4.3%0.0%
Saint Joseph’sAtlantic 1022.0%0.0%3.3%0.0%
George MasonAtlantic 100.0%0.0%2.7%0.0%
UABAmerican8.6%0.0%2.6%0.0%
VirginiaACC98.1%0.0%1.9%0.1%
UMassAtlantic 100.0%0.0%1.3%0.0%
Penn StateBig Ten0.0%0.0%1.3%0.0%
Florida AtlanticAmerican98.8%0.2%1.2%0.2%
NorthwesternBig Ten99.5%0.1%0.6%0.0%
VermontAmerica East74.7%0.0%0.3%0.0%
Texas A&MSEC99.8%0.1%0.2%0.0%
ColoradoPac-1299.9%0.3%0.1%0.0%
Michigan StateBig Ten99.9%0.6%0.1%0.0%
RutgersBig Ten0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
CharlotteAmerican9.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%
HoustonBig 12100.0%19.4%0.0%0.0%
UConnBig East100.0%16.4%0.0%0.0%
PurdueBig Ten100.0%11.5%0.0%0.0%
ArizonaPac-12100.0%7.0%0.0%0.0%
TennesseeSEC100.0%6.8%0.0%0.0%
AuburnSEC100.0%6.4%0.0%0.0%
North CarolinaACC100.0%4.6%0.0%0.0%
DukeACC100.0%3.1%0.0%0.0%
Iowa StateBig 12100.0%2.9%0.0%0.0%
CreightonBig East100.0%2.6%0.0%0.0%
IllinoisBig Ten100.0%2.4%0.0%0.0%
AlabamaSEC100.0%2.2%0.0%0.0%
MarquetteBig East100.0%2.1%0.0%0.0%
BaylorBig 12100.0%1.9%0.0%0.0%
KentuckySEC100.0%1.0%0.0%0.0%
GonzagaWCC100.0%1.0%0.0%0.0%
BYUBig 12100.0%0.9%0.0%0.0%
WisconsinBig Ten100.0%0.8%0.0%0.0%
KansasBig 12100.0%0.6%0.0%0.0%
Saint Mary’sWCC100.0%0.6%0.0%0.0%
Texas TechBig 12100.0%0.5%0.0%0.0%
San Diego StateMountain West100.0%0.5%0.0%0.0%
FloridaSEC100.0%0.3%0.0%0.0%
NebraskaBig Ten100.0%0.3%0.0%0.0%
DaytonAtlantic 10100.0%0.3%0.0%0.0%
TexasBig 12100.0%0.3%0.0%0.0%
Colorado StateMountain West100.0%0.3%0.0%0.0%
NevadaMountain West100.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%
Utah StateMountain West100.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%
ClemsonACC100.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%
Washington StatePac-12100.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%
South CarolinaSEC100.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%
Boise StateMountain West100.0%0.1%0.0%0.0%
DrakeMissouri Valley100.0%0.1%0.0%0.0%
McNeeseSouthland100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
James MadisonSun Belt100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
SamfordSoCon100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
College of CharlestonCAA100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Morehead StateOhio Valley100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
StetsonASUN100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
LongwoodBig South100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
South Dakota StateSummit League100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
OaklandHorizon League100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
WagnerNEC100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
ColgatePatriot League100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Montana StateBig Sky100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Western KentuckyConference USA39.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AkronMAC39.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Norfolk StateMEAC37.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Texas SouthernSWAC36.8%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Sam Houston StateConference USA33.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%
North Carolina CentralMEAC33.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FairfieldMAAC32.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
QuinnipiacMAAC29.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Grambling StateSWAC29.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%
OhioMAC27.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
UMass LowellAmerica East25.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Kent StateMAC21.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Bethune-CookmanSWAC21.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Saint Peter’sMAAC20.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%
UT ArlingtonWAC19.8%0.0%0.0%0.0%
UTEPConference USA19.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%
MaristMAAC18.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
HawaiiBig West16.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
SeattleWAC15.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%
UC DavisBig West13.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%
HowardMEAC13.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Bowling Green StateMAC12.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Alabama A&MSWAC12.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Long Beach StateBig West11.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%
South Carolina StateMEAC7.9%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Middle TennesseeConference USA7.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Delaware StateMEAC6.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Wichita StateAmerican4.8%0.0%0.0%0.0%
BrownIvy League3.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%
East CarolinaAmerican2.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Morgan StateMEAC1.8%0.0%0.0%0.0%
TempleAmerican1.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%
ArkansasSEC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
USCPac-120.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Oklahoma StateBig 120.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
StanfordPac-120.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
ToledoMAC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
SouthernSWAC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
LibertyConference USA0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Jackson StateSWAC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
RiderMAAC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Stephen F. AustinWAC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NiagaraMAAC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
UC RiversideBig West0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Central MichiganMAC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Miami (OH)MAC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Cal State NorthridgeBig West0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
New Mexico StateConference USA0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
California BaptistWAC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
UCLAPac-120.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Western MichiganMAC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
TulaneAmerican0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
TulsaAmerican0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Fresno StateMountain West0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
GeorgetownBig East0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
CalPac-120.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Arizona StatePac-120.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
MontanaBig Sky0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Louisiana TechConference USA0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
LehighPatriot League0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Alcorn StateSWAC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
IonaMAAC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NichollsSouthland0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Alabama StateSWAC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
CanisiusMAAC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
UC Santa BarbaraBig West0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Utah ValleyWAC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FIUConference USA0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Cal State BakersfieldBig West0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Abilene ChristianWAC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
WyomingMountain West0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Coppin StateMEAC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Saint LouisAtlantic 100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
La SalleAtlantic 100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FordhamAtlantic 100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Oregon StatePac-120.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Notre DameACC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
RiceAmerican0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
UTSAAmerican0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
MichiganBig Ten0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
MissouriSEC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Miami (FL)ACC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Georgia TechACC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
MerrimackNEC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
MilwaukeeHorizon League0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Stony BrookCAA0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
DenverSummit League0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Idaho StateBig Sky0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Texas A&M-Corpus ChristiSouthland0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
BryantAmerica East0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Sacramento StateBig Sky0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
LamarSouthland0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Mount St. Mary’sMAAC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Jacksonville StateConference USA0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
New HampshireAmerica East0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
DavidsonAtlantic 100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
ManhattanMAAC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Rhode IslandAtlantic 100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
SienaMAAC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
HofstraCAA0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Weber StateBig Sky0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Arkansas StateSun Belt0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Northern KentuckyHorizon League0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
East Tennessee StateSoCon0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Cleveland StateHorizon League0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
TowsonCAA0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
OmahaSummit League0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Portland StateBig Sky0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Santa ClaraWCC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
New OrleansSouthland0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
LouisvilleACC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
San Jose StateMountain West0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
UNC AshevilleBig South0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Austin PeayASUN0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Eastern WashingtonBig Sky0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
ChattanoogaSoCon0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
DrexelCAA0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FurmanSoCon0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Northern ColoradoBig Sky0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Boston UniversityPatriot League0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
North DakotaSummit League0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
BucknellPatriot League0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
DelawareCAA0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Texas StateSun Belt0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
MonmouthCAA0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
North Dakota StateSummit League0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Southeastern LouisianaSouthland0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Northwestern StateSouthland0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Air ForceMountain West0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
High PointBig South0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Central Connecticut StateNEC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Little RockOhio Valley0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Western CarolinaSoCon0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
UNC GreensboroSoCon0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Kansas CitySummit League0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
TroySun Belt0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Gardner-WebbBig South0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Northern IowaMissouri Valley0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
LouisianaSun Belt0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
WoffordSoCon0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Arkansas-Pine BluffSWAC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
MaineAmerica East0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
MercerSoCon0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Oral RobertsSummit League0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
BinghamtonAmerica East0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AlbanyAmerica East0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Northern ArizonaBig Sky0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NortheasternCAA0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
MarshallSun Belt0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
UMBCAmerica East0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
South DakotaSummit League0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
IdahoBig Sky0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Georgia SouthernSun Belt0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
CampbellCAA0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Cal State FullertonBig West0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
San DiegoWCC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
George WashingtonAtlantic 100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
William & MaryCAA0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
West VirginiaBig 120.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
HamptonCAA0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
UT MartinOhio Valley0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Western IllinoisOhio Valley0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
WinthropBig South0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
BelmontMissouri Valley0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
RadfordBig South0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
PresbyterianBig South0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Missouri StateMissouri Valley0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
UICMissouri Valley0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Charleston SouthernBig South0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Ball StateMAC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
EvansvilleMissouri Valley0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
The CitadelSoCon0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Loyola MarymountWCC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
PepperdineWCC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
ElonCAA0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
VanderbiltSEC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Youngstown StateHorizon League0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Wright StateHorizon League0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
North AlabamaASUN0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Purdue Fort WayneHorizon League0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Sacred HeartNEC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
JacksonvilleASUN0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Green BayHorizon League0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AmericanPatriot League0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
LafayettePatriot League0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Southern IllinoisMissouri Valley0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Tennessee StateOhio Valley0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
SIU EdwardsvilleOhio Valley0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Murray StateMissouri Valley0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NavyPatriot League0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Georgia StateSun Belt0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
South AlabamaSun Belt0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Illinois StateMissouri Valley0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Southern MissSun Belt0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
LIUNEC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Eastern IllinoisOhio Valley0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
USC UpstateBig South0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Holy CrossPatriot League0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Saint FrancisNEC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Coastal CarolinaSun Belt0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
ValparaisoMissouri Valley0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
PortlandWCC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Houston ChristianSouthland0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Eastern KentuckyASUN0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
LipscombASUN0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
North FloridaASUN0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
ArmyPatriot League0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Robert MorrisHorizon League0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Old DominionSun Belt0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Louisiana MonroeSun Belt0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Loyola (MD)Patriot League0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Incarnate WordSouthland0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Florida Gulf CoastASUN0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Kennesaw StateASUN0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
HarvardIvy League0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Tennessee TechOhio Valley0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
ColumbiaIvy League0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
StonehillNEC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
North Carolina A&TCAA0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
VMISoCon0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Central ArkansasASUN0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Eastern MichiganMAC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Detroit MercyHorizon League0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Southern UtahWAC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
TarletonWAC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NJITAmerica East0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Le MoyneNEC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
PennIvy League0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
BellarmineASUN0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
QueensASUN0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
DePaulBig East0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
UC San DiegoBig West0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Cal PolyBig West0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
IUPUIHorizon League0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Chicago StateIndependent0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
DartmouthIvy League0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
BuffaloMAC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Northern IllinoisMAC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
LindenwoodOhio Valley0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Southern IndianaOhio Valley0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Southeast Missouri StateOhio Valley0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Texas A&M-CommerceSouthland0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
St. ThomasSummit League0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Florida A&MSWAC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Mississippi Valley StateSWAC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Utah TechWAC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
PacificWCC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
The Barking Crow's resident numbers man. Was asked to do NIT Bracketology in 2018 and never looked back. Fields inquiries on Twitter: @joestunardi.
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