Our NIT Bracketology is updated to account for yesterday’s games, and at long last, we don’t have to worry about the effects of our model not considering conference tiebreakers.
We’re going to talk a lot about the lower NIT bubble below, in Model Talk, but like everyone else in the bracketology world, we’re going to start by talking about Indiana State. Specifically, we’re going to talk about what we think will happen, not what we think should happen. (Our view is that WAB should be the basis for all the committee’s decisions, with only small adjustments made from that starting point. This would result in Indiana State making the NCAA Tournament field.)
Our model is still reacting to Indiana State’s loss yesterday. Its simulations last night didn’t account for the reactions of NET, KPI, or SOR, all of which correlate with the committee’s eventual decision. Tonight’s simulations will account for those updates, and we’ll get a better view. Overall, though, we have some bullish indicators on the Sycamores:
First, our model’s first glance does have the Sycamores more than 50% likely to make the NCAA Tournament field. We have them at 59.0%.
Second, DJ Bauer’s bracketology (DJ is one of the top bracketologists in the industry in terms of track record) currently has the Sycamores in the Last Four In, and if I understand his ordering correctly, they’re the fourth-to-last team in.
Third, Joe Lunardi’s bracketology has Indiana State in the same place. Lunardi isn’t the most accurate prognosticator in the industry, but his work remains solid and he likely plays at least a small role in establishing the conversation, given how many games this week are going to be on the ESPN family of networks and how much the committee will be watching those games. I do think the narrative matters with bracketology, although I fear that the immediate stumping from so many in college basketball media might, paradoxically, lead committee members to believe that maybe Indiana State doesn’t obviously deserve a bid. (The possible subconscious logic: If this is so obvious, why are they arguing?)
Fourth, our model punishes teams for Q1 win percentages below .250, and Indiana State’s is .200. With some bubble teams, we see a possibly significant metric that our model doesn’t include. With Indiana State, we’re confident our model accounts for the primary criticism.
Fifth, Indiana State was missing a starter (Jayson Kent) for the loss to SIU, a five-point road loss in which Julian Larry fouled out, making depth matter more than it always does. Should injuries be considered by the committee? That’s a subjective question, but for better or worse, they’re supposed to be considered. That’s part of why there’s still a committee, even with metrics as strong as they now are.
Sixth, those bracketologies above already have two bid thieves included, even post-Drake. They all have a bid thief in the A-10 and the AAC, because Dayton and FAU didn’t win those regular season titles.
A few bearish indicators:
First, Bart Torvik’s TourneyCast™ has Indiana State’s bid probability at 30.9%. Bart’s been doing this longer than us, and he takes it at least as seriously as we do, and we doubt we’re any smarter than he is, all of which are things which make us trust TourneyCast slightly more than our own projections when it comes to the NCAAT/NIT bubble.
Second, Indiana State’s combined Q1/Q2 win percentage is .500, which is only slightly above our model’s .450 cutoff. Not every .500 record against Q1/Q2 opponents is the same. Is Indiana State’s similar enough to those bubble teams whose .450+ record in that space led that to be a variable in our model? I’m not sure. The lone Q1 win came against Bradley, who’s not an NIT lock. The Q2 wins came against Drake, Bradley, Northern Iowa, and Belmont, who aren’t NIT locks. If we were using eight octants instead of four quadrants, Indiana State’s record in O1 and O3 would be worse than it is in Q1 and Q2.
Third, those “as things stand” bracketologies don’t account for the likelihood of at least some bubble teams putting together strong weeks. Someone will win the Seton Hall/St. John’s game. Villanova will likely get a chance against a shorthanded Marquette. Texas A&M plays Mississippi. Pitt and Wake Forest will most likely play one another. We love predictive bracketology (as opposed to “as things stand”) because it accounts for all of this, and it might help Indiana State that the committee often makes decisions before conference tournaments are complete, but this is a tough dynamic for Terre Haute.
Plenty more to come. In the meantime, here’s our model’s best projection of Sunday’s NIT bracket, with no Indiana State to be found:
Last Four In, First Four Out, Etc.
On the low side:
- Last Four In (from the cut line going upwards): Duquesne, San Francisco, VCU, NC State
- First Four Out (from the cut line going downwards): Florida State, Minnesota, Cornell, Yale
- Others in the mix (>10% NIT chance, below NIT field, not in our field or in the First Four Out): Xavier, Maryland, Minnesota, Penn State, Georgia, George Mason, UMass
On the high side:
- Last Four In (from the cut line going downwards): St. John’s, Villanova, New Mexico, Wake Forest
- First Four Out (from the cut line going upwards): TCU, Mississippi State, Indiana State, Seton Hall
- Others in the mix (>10% NIT chance, above NIT field, not in our field or in the First Four Out): Virginia, Colorado State, Saint Mary’s
As always, we account for bid thieves by looking at the median cut lines in our model’s simulations. Today, those remain 45th and 83rd, meaning if there was a master seed list covering both tournaments, the 45th overall seed would be the last NCAAT at-large and the 83rd seed would be the last NIT at-large. We do have the issue happening again where there are 33 NIT teams in those spots between 45th and 83rd, which is causing Florida State to be cut out despite being the 83rd team on our list. This will resolve itself by Sunday, either through LSU climbing above the lower cut line, Texas A&M dipping below the upper one, the cut line returning to 82nd, one of Xavier and Maryland pulling off two conference tournament wins and managing a .500 finish, or any other of a number of possible development.
Conference Tournament Favorites (Reverse Bid Thieves)
Given where those cut lines stand and how many teams sit between them, we don’t have any reverse bid thieves today. All conference tournament favorites who sit in NIT at-large territory are, in today’s bracketology, not in the NIT. More likely than not, this isn’t what happens, but our cut line is 83 and NC State is the 82nd team on our seed list, so there’s a good chance that whatever reverse bid thieves do happen are canceled out by current projected NIT at-larges playing their way into the NCAAT as automatic bids. For example: If we get JMU or McNeese, we might lose South Florida or Richmond.
The five conference tournament favorites in NIT at-large bid territory if they lose:
- Princeton
- Grand Canyon
- James Madison
- McNeese
- Samford
Please note: This isn’t a guarantee that the team in question will make the NIT with a loss. Samford is especially bubbly if they lose. But they’re all more than 50% likely to make the NIT in the event they don’t make the NCAA Tournament.
Model Talk: The Lower Bubble
John Templon published an updated bracket last night, and here are the lower bubble teams on whom we disagree:
| Team | The Barking Crow | John Templon |
| Florida State | OUT | IN |
| Boston College | OUT | IN |
| Minnesota | OUT | IN |
| VCU | IN | OUT |
| LSU | AUTO | IN |
Notably, John has Richmond and South Florida both in the NCAAT in his projection, meaning he’s using 84th as the cut line while our bracketology today is using 82nd. With our model’s median projected cut line at 83rd and Florida State our model’s 83rd team, what this signifies to me is that we don’t significantly disagree about Florida State, if we disagree at all. With Minnesota our next team out behind Florida State, we don’t significantly disagree about Minnesota either. Our most significant disagreements are VCU (where we appear to disagree by six spots), Boston College (where we disagree by at least six), and LSU (where we disagree by at least three).
John is not currently including expected conference tournament results in his bracket. Our model is. Still, our model’s median simulation has VCU going only 1–1 in the A-10 Tournament, so this disagreement isn’t coming from there.
My best guess as to what’s going on with VCU is that it comes from KPI. Our model incorporates KPI directly and heavily (it’s 23% of the projection) while John’s approach is, if I understand correctly, looking at the résumé more conventionally. VCU is 1–4 in Q1 games. It has four combined losses across Q3 and Q4. KPI? It has VCU’s as the 60th-best résumé in the country, pulling the Rams upwards in our model’s projection.
We include KPI for a reason, and that reason is that our formula tracks very well with NIT selection decisions over the last two years. But I see where John’s coming from with VCU. It’s not just NET. Their SOR is ranked 100th and they don’t have many strong calling cards.
Our model does have Boston College narrowly likelier to beat Miami than lose to Miami, using kenpom to set that line. So, I’m not sure future results are to blame for the Boston College disagreement either. Boston College doesn’t have any Q4 losses, and its only Q3 losses came against Florida State and NC State, two respectable teams in the NIT world. Our model’s approach dismisses nuance for a reason when it comes to the NIT (the NIT selection meeting is a lot shorter than the NCAAT one), but we see the case for BC. That said, we only have the Eagles 6.3% likely to make the NIT cut, and a 1–1 ACC Tournament performance should only raise that number to something like ten percent. We expect our model to be wrong about one in ten cases at that number, so this might be one of the ten, but we’re afraid that with NET, kenpom, SOR, and KPI rankings all north of 90, Boston College won’t get the detailed look it needs.
Our model adores Texas A&M’s team sheet, so if it’s right about that, LSU will probably get the automatic bid and this will take care of itself. If not, the wins over Kentucky (H), South Carolina (A), Texas A&M (A), and Wake Forest (N) might be enough to get the Tigers over the cut line. That’s a pretty good bag of chips to bring to a nuance party, and we do have LSU close enough to the cut line that they’re likelier than others to receive that nuance.
In short! We think John’s a good guy and a smart guy and you should read his stuff. We’re skeptical of his take on Boston College, but we get where he comes from, and we expect to miss a few teams he hits on (and vice versa). We’re skeptical of KPI’s take on VCU, and we’re curious whether KPI is something the NIT committee looks at directly. Was it 2018 when the NIT committee stuck *so* closely to KPI? 2019? Or is that a phantom memory?
The Graveyard
Before we get to today’s archive, we wanted to talk about who’s losing what because of the change in the automatic bid rules. We think it’s important to track the real impact of the changes, or at least our closest estimate of that impact. So:
- Losing an automatic bid (teams who would have made it in last year’s format): High Point, Eastern Washington, Little Rock, Eastern Kentucky, Central Connecticut State
- Gaining a bid (teams we think are receiving those bids instead): Duquesne, San Francisco, VCU, NC State, Appalachian State
- Losing a home game (teams who would have been seeded and had the option to host last year): Memphis, Butler, Kansas State
- Gaining a home game (the teams picking up home games as replacements): Washington, Mississippi, LSU
Not all non-power conference teams are created equal. We believe strongly in the high-major/mid-major/low-major dichotomy (as opposed to calling teams only power conference schools and mid-majors). In total, then, what we have is this:
- Five NIT spots shifting away from low-majors. Four of those go to mid-majors. One goes to a high-major.
- One NIT home game shifting away from a mid-major (Memphis, one of the highest mid-majors in terms of brand power). This goes to a high-major.
For the Archives
| Team | Conference | Make NCAA Tournament | Win NCAA Tournament | Make NIT | Win NIT |
| Bradley | Missouri Valley | 0.0% | 0.0% | 99.7% | 1.2% |
| UCF | Big 12 | 0.6% | 0.0% | 98.8% | 2.1% |
| Mississippi | SEC | 1.5% | 0.0% | 98.4% | 0.8% |
| Butler | Big East | 3.0% | 0.0% | 97.0% | 2.5% |
| Syracuse | ACC | 5.3% | 0.0% | 94.8% | 0.6% |
| Oregon | Pac-12 | 5.3% | 0.0% | 94.6% | 1.2% |
| Virginia Tech | ACC | 6.0% | 0.0% | 94.0% | 3.0% |
| Washington | Pac-12 | 3.0% | 0.0% | 93.2% | 2.0% |
| Pitt | ACC | 9.2% | 0.0% | 90.8% | 6.7% |
| Appalachian State | Sun Belt | 0.0% | 0.0% | 90.8% | 0.4% |
| Kansas State | Big 12 | 9.3% | 0.0% | 90.8% | 1.1% |
| Iowa | Big Ten | 10.0% | 0.0% | 90.0% | 3.7% |
| Richmond | Atlantic 10 | 11.2% | 0.0% | 88.8% | 0.6% |
| Cincinnati | Big 12 | 13.3% | 0.0% | 86.7% | 6.5% |
| Ohio State | Big Ten | 13.4% | 0.0% | 86.6% | 5.0% |
| Utah | Pac-12 | 14.2% | 0.0% | 85.8% | 3.8% |
| Memphis | American | 14.4% | 0.0% | 85.6% | 1.0% |
| Providence | Big East | 14.5% | 0.0% | 85.5% | 1.6% |
| Loyola (IL) | Atlantic 10 | 9.4% | 0.0% | 84.9% | 0.4% |
| Indiana | Big Ten | 2.4% | 0.0% | 84.8% | 0.3% |
| South Florida | American | 15.6% | 0.0% | 83.3% | 0.4% |
| UNLV | Mountain West | 9.8% | 0.0% | 81.2% | 0.5% |
| SMU | American | 16.0% | 0.0% | 70.6% | 0.7% |
| LSU | SEC | 0.1% | 0.0% | 68.2% | 0.5% |
| NC State | ACC | 0.7% | 0.0% | 67.8% | 0.4% |
| New Mexico | Mountain West | 37.7% | 0.1% | 62.3% | 6.4% |
| Wake Forest | ACC | 41.2% | 0.2% | 58.8% | 7.5% |
| Villanova | Big East | 41.6% | 0.1% | 58.4% | 6.8% |
| St. John’s | Big East | 44.4% | 0.2% | 55.6% | 5.6% |
| TCU | Big 12 | 49.9% | 0.1% | 50.1% | 5.4% |
| VCU | Atlantic 10 | 7.0% | 0.0% | 49.0% | 0.2% |
| Princeton | Ivy League | 52.9% | 0.0% | 47.1% | 1.8% |
| Mississippi State | SEC | 57.4% | 0.2% | 42.6% | 3.4% |
| San Francisco | WCC | 10.0% | 0.0% | 41.3% | 0.3% |
| Indiana State | Missouri Valley | 59.0% | 0.1% | 41.0% | 4.3% |
| Xavier | Big East | 0.9% | 0.0% | 39.3% | 1.2% |
| Florida State | ACC | 0.7% | 0.0% | 35.1% | 0.3% |
| Duquesne | Atlantic 10 | 4.7% | 0.0% | 32.3% | 0.1% |
| Maryland | Big Ten | 0.9% | 0.0% | 31.2% | 0.8% |
| James Madison | Sun Belt | 70.4% | 0.0% | 29.6% | 0.4% |
| Virginia | ACC | 72.3% | 0.0% | 27.7% | 0.8% |
| Grand Canyon | WAC | 72.6% | 0.1% | 27.4% | 0.6% |
| Seton Hall | Big East | 74.8% | 0.0% | 25.2% | 0.7% |
| Minnesota | Big Ten | 0.4% | 0.0% | 25.2% | 0.2% |
| Penn State | Big Ten | 0.6% | 0.0% | 24.0% | 0.3% |
| Georgia | SEC | 0.2% | 0.0% | 23.8% | 0.1% |
| George Mason | Atlantic 10 | 5.1% | 0.0% | 18.7% | 0.1% |
| McNeese | Southland | 81.1% | 0.0% | 18.3% | 0.2% |
| Samford | SoCon | 75.4% | 0.0% | 18.3% | 0.1% |
| UMass | Atlantic 10 | 10.9% | 0.0% | 17.8% | 0.1% |
| Colorado State | Mountain West | 82.8% | 0.2% | 17.2% | 1.8% |
| Saint Mary’s | WCC | 83.8% | 0.4% | 16.2% | 2.1% |
| Cornell | Ivy League | 19.2% | 0.0% | 10.9% | 0.0% |
| Arkansas | SEC | 0.1% | 0.0% | 8.3% | 0.1% |
| Yale | Ivy League | 24.7% | 0.0% | 7.3% | 0.0% |
| Boston College | ACC | 0.3% | 0.0% | 6.3% | 0.1% |
| Oklahoma | Big 12 | 94.2% | 0.1% | 5.8% | 0.5% |
| St. Bonaventure | Atlantic 10 | 6.1% | 0.0% | 4.9% | 0.0% |
| UC Irvine | Big West | 61.1% | 0.0% | 4.4% | 0.0% |
| Colorado | Pac-12 | 95.8% | 0.2% | 4.2% | 0.4% |
| Texas A&M | SEC | 96.5% | 0.1% | 3.5% | 0.2% |
| Rutgers | Big Ten | 0.1% | 0.0% | 3.2% | 0.0% |
| Miami (FL) | ACC | 0.3% | 0.0% | 2.7% | 0.0% |
| Michigan State | Big Ten | 97.5% | 0.5% | 2.5% | 0.4% |
| USC | Pac-12 | 1.1% | 0.0% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| North Texas | American | 7.9% | 0.0% | 2.0% | 0.0% |
| UAB | American | 5.7% | 0.0% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| College of Charleston | CAA | 37.9% | 0.0% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Saint Joseph’s | Atlantic 10 | 3.6% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Florida Atlantic | American | 99.1% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Northwestern | Big Ten | 99.5% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Oklahoma State | Big 12 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Vermont | America East | 66.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Georgia Tech | ACC | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Charlotte | American | 4.9% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Stanford | Pac-12 | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Florida | SEC | 100.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Washington State | Pac-12 | 100.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cal | Pac-12 | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Georgetown | Big East | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Houston | Big 12 | 100.0% | 19.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| UConn | Big East | 100.0% | 15.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Purdue | Big Ten | 100.0% | 11.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tennessee | SEC | 100.0% | 6.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Auburn | SEC | 100.0% | 6.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Arizona | Pac-12 | 100.0% | 6.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| North Carolina | ACC | 100.0% | 4.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Duke | ACC | 100.0% | 4.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Creighton | Big East | 100.0% | 3.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Iowa State | Big 12 | 100.0% | 2.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marquette | Big East | 100.0% | 2.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Illinois | Big Ten | 100.0% | 2.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alabama | SEC | 100.0% | 2.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Baylor | Big 12 | 100.0% | 2.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gonzaga | WCC | 100.0% | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kentucky | SEC | 100.0% | 1.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kansas | Big 12 | 100.0% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| BYU | Big 12 | 100.0% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| San Diego State | Mountain West | 100.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Texas Tech | Big 12 | 100.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Clemson | ACC | 100.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Texas | Big 12 | 100.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wisconsin | Big Ten | 100.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nevada | Mountain West | 100.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nebraska | Big Ten | 100.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dayton | Atlantic 10 | 100.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Boise State | Mountain West | 100.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Utah State | Mountain West | 100.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| South Carolina | SEC | 100.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Drake | Missouri Valley | 100.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hofstra | CAA | 34.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Akron | MAC | 31.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Morehead State | Ohio Valley | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stetson | ASUN | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Longwood | Big South | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Colgate | Patriot League | 79.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Merrimack | NEC | 78.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| South Dakota State | Summit League | 73.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Louisiana Tech | Conference USA | 43.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Oakland | Horizon League | 41.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Weber State | Big Sky | 34.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Norfolk State | MEAC | 32.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Arkansas State | Sun Belt | 29.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| North Carolina Central | MEAC | 28.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Montana | Big Sky | 27.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Northern Kentucky | Horizon League | 24.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| East Tennessee State | SoCon | 24.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Toledo | MAC | 24.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Fairfield | MAAC | 23.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Southern | SWAC | 22.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wagner | NEC | 21.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| UMass Lowell | America East | 20.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lehigh | Patriot League | 20.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ohio | MAC | 20.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Quinnipiac | MAAC | 18.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cleveland State | Horizon League | 18.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Texas Southern | SWAC | 18.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Liberty | Conference USA | 16.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Towson | CAA | 16.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alcorn State | SWAC | 15.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Milwaukee | Horizon League | 15.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Idaho State | Big Sky | 15.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Howard | MEAC | 15.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Omaha | Summit League | 14.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grambling State | SWAC | 14.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Western Kentucky | Conference USA | 14.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| UC Davis | Big West | 14.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marist | MAAC | 13.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Saint Peter’s | MAAC | 13.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sam Houston State | Conference USA | 13.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Denver | Summit League | 12.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Texas A&M-Corpus Christi | Southland | 11.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stony Brook | CAA | 11.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| UT Arlington | WAC | 11.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| South Carolina State | MEAC | 10.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jackson State | SWAC | 10.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rider | MAAC | 9.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Montana State | Big Sky | 9.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bryant | America East | 9.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hawaii | Big West | 9.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kent State | MAC | 9.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Iona | MAAC | 8.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Seattle | WAC | 8.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Delaware State | MEAC | 8.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alabama State | SWAC | 7.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Portland State | Big Sky | 7.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bethune-Cookman | SWAC | 7.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Long Beach State | Big West | 6.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bowling Green State | MAC | 6.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sacramento State | Big Sky | 5.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mount St. Mary’s | MAAC | 5.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Niagara | MAAC | 5.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| UTEP | Conference USA | 5.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Santa Clara | WCC | 4.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lamar | Southland | 4.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jacksonville State | Conference USA | 4.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alabama A&M | SWAC | 4.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Miami (OH) | MAC | 3.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Central Michigan | MAC | 3.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stephen F. Austin | WAC | 3.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| New Hampshire | America East | 3.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| UC Santa Barbara | Big West | 3.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brown | Ivy League | 3.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Morgan State | MEAC | 3.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholls | Southland | 2.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Utah Valley | WAC | 2.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Canisius | MAAC | 2.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| UC Riverside | Big West | 2.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Davidson | Atlantic 10 | 1.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cal State Northridge | Big West | 1.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Western Michigan | MAC | 1.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cal State Bakersfield | Big West | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| UCLA | Pac-12 | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Middle Tennessee | Conference USA | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maryland Eastern Shore | MEAC | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| New Mexico State | Conference USA | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| California Baptist | WAC | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tulane | American | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Abilene Christian | WAC | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tulsa | American | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wichita State | American | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| East Carolina | American | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| FIU | Conference USA | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Arizona State | Pac-12 | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Coppin State | MEAC | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wyoming | Mountain West | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| La Salle | Atlantic 10 | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rhode Island | Atlantic 10 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Saint Louis | Atlantic 10 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Fordham | Atlantic 10 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Oregon State | Pac-12 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Manhattan | MAAC | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Temple | American | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Notre Dame | ACC | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| New Orleans | Southland | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rice | American | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michigan | Big Ten | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| UTSA | American | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Missouri | SEC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Louisville | ACC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Siena | MAAC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Fresno State | Mountain West | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| San Jose State | Mountain West | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| UNC Asheville | Big South | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Austin Peay | ASUN | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eastern Washington | Big Sky | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chattanooga | SoCon | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| UNC Wilmington | CAA | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Drexel | CAA | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Furman | SoCon | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Northern Colorado | Big Sky | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Boston University | Patriot League | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| North Dakota | Summit League | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bucknell | Patriot League | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Delaware | CAA | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Texas State | Sun Belt | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Monmouth | CAA | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| North Dakota State | Summit League | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Southeastern Louisiana | Southland | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Northwestern State | Southland | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Air Force | Mountain West | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| High Point | Big South | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Central Connecticut State | NEC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Little Rock | Ohio Valley | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Western Carolina | SoCon | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| UNC Greensboro | SoCon | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kansas City | Summit League | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Troy | Sun Belt | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gardner-Webb | Big South | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Northern Iowa | Missouri Valley | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Louisiana | Sun Belt | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wofford | SoCon | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Arkansas-Pine Bluff | SWAC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maine | America East | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mercer | SoCon | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Oral Roberts | Summit League | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Binghamton | America East | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Albany | America East | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Northern Arizona | Big Sky | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Northeastern | CAA | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marshall | Sun Belt | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| UMBC | America East | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| South Dakota | Summit League | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Idaho | Big Sky | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Georgia Southern | Sun Belt | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Campbell | CAA | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cal State Fullerton | Big West | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| San Diego | WCC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| George Washington | Atlantic 10 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William & Mary | CAA | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| West Virginia | Big 12 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hampton | CAA | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| UT Martin | Ohio Valley | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Western Illinois | Ohio Valley | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Winthrop | Big South | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Belmont | Missouri Valley | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Radford | Big South | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Presbyterian | Big South | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Missouri State | Missouri Valley | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| UIC | Missouri Valley | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charleston Southern | Big South | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ball State | MAC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Evansville | Missouri Valley | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| The Citadel | SoCon | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Loyola Marymount | WCC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Pepperdine | WCC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elon | CAA | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Vanderbilt | SEC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Youngstown State | Horizon League | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wright State | Horizon League | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| North Alabama | ASUN | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Purdue Fort Wayne | Horizon League | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sacred Heart | NEC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jacksonville | ASUN | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Green Bay | Horizon League | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| American | Patriot League | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lafayette | Patriot League | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Southern Illinois | Missouri Valley | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tennessee State | Ohio Valley | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| SIU Edwardsville | Ohio Valley | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Murray State | Missouri Valley | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Fairleigh Dickinson | NEC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Navy | Patriot League | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Georgia State | Sun Belt | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| South Alabama | Sun Belt | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Illinois State | Missouri Valley | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Southern Miss | Sun Belt | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| LIU | NEC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eastern Illinois | Ohio Valley | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| USC Upstate | Big South | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Holy Cross | Patriot League | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Saint Francis | NEC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Coastal Carolina | Sun Belt | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Valparaiso | Missouri Valley | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Portland | WCC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Houston Christian | Southland | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eastern Kentucky | ASUN | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lipscomb | ASUN | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| North Florida | ASUN | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Army | Patriot League | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Robert Morris | Horizon League | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Old Dominion | Sun Belt | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Louisiana Monroe | Sun Belt | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Loyola (MD) | Patriot League | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Incarnate Word | Southland | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Florida Gulf Coast | ASUN | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kennesaw State | ASUN | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Harvard | Ivy League | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tennessee Tech | Ohio Valley | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Columbia | Ivy League | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Prairie View A&M | SWAC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stonehill | NEC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| North Carolina A&T | CAA | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| VMI | SoCon | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Central Arkansas | ASUN | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eastern Michigan | MAC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Detroit Mercy | Horizon League | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Southern Utah | WAC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tarleton | WAC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| NJIT | America East | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Le Moyne | NEC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Penn | Ivy League | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bellarmine | ASUN | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Queens | ASUN | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| DePaul | Big East | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| UC San Diego | Big West | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cal Poly | Big West | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| IUPUI | Horizon League | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chicago State | Independent | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dartmouth | Ivy League | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Buffalo | MAC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Northern Illinois | MAC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lindenwood | Ohio Valley | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Southern Indiana | Ohio Valley | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Southeast Missouri State | Ohio Valley | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Texas A&M-Commerce | Southland | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| St. Thomas | Summit League | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Florida A&M | SWAC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mississippi Valley State | SWAC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Utah Tech | WAC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| UT Rio Grande Valley | WAC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Pacific | WCC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
