Our NIT Bracketology and NCAAT Seed List are both updated. A few things to know:
First, we’re still running the lite version of our model, which we described in more detail back here. The only big difference from last week is that we fixed a bug which was mis-assigning the NIT 1-seeds. (Those go to the NCAAT’s First Four Out so long as they go to the NIT. We had them assigned based on our NIT seeding formula, which is different from our NCAAT selection formula.)
Second…it’s still a fun bubble. UNC, John Calipari’s Arkansas, and programs like Drake, UC Irvine, and Nebraska are all in that window. We’re still working on some updates to the full version of the model (the one that gives probabilities), so we don’t have specific numbers on NCAAT/NIT leverage just yet, but it goes without saying that Pitt/UNC is a massive game this weekend, as is UCSD/UCI Round 2, as is Alabama/Arkansas. So, in addition to St. John’s/UConn and Florida/Auburn, set your eyes on those. I’m excited for us to get that full model done so we can turn our attention more to the basketball itself and less to our own spreadsheets.
Third…even after removing two teams to send them to the CBC, we have five Big 12 teams in our projected field. The Big 12 has a thick middle class right now.
First Eight Out
In order, the first eight teams below our current projected NIT cut line:
- Stanford
- Florida State
- Butler
- Minnesota
- St. Bonaventure
- Providence
- Washington
- Saint Joseph’s
Bid Thieves, Automatic Bids, Exempt Bid Complications (i.e., What’s Up With the A-10)
We’re still projecting one NCAAT bid thief, with Wake Forest in that seat.
We’re down to eight core NIT automatic bid contenders, with Liberty the favorite again in Conference USA (Liberty is in the exempt bid conversation because they have the best rankings in CUSA, while Jacksonville State would have needed an automatic bid). That, in turn, pushes us down to four projected automatic bids, though you could make an argument that we should include five. We took Arkansas State, Samford, Akron, and High Point rather than McNeese, Grand Canyon, Yale, and Lipscomb. The first four are likelier to both win their conference title in the regular season and lose their conference tournament, which is necessary for an automatic bid (in addition to averaging a ranking of 125 or better across the seven team sheet rating systems).
Speaking of Conference USA, they’ve still got that uncomfortable situation going on where their conference tournament favorite (Liberty) would receive an NIT exempt bid were they to lose. The A-10 and Big West face similar situations. (The MVC was on this list but Drake is newly narrowly ahead of our projected NCAAT cut line.) How are we handling it?
Between Conference USA (Liberty, whoever would replace Liberty—it’s currently Jacksonville State), the A-10 (VCU, George Mason, and Dayton) and the Big West (UC Irvine, UC San Diego), we currently project a total of five NIT teams. Of those three leagues, the Big West is least likely to see a sub-NIT team win its conference tournament. So, we bump UC San Diego out and keep Liberty, UC Irvine, and all three A-10 teams.
Long story short, That’s why we have all three of the A-10 favorites in our projected field. Again, the full version of our model will attack this dilemma with a more precise approach.
