Our bracketologies are live ahead of today’s games. Here are the links:
Sometimes, we use a full Monte Carlo simulation model for our bracketologies, but we aren’t doing that right now. Instead, we’re using simplified versions of our model’s formulas and employing kenpom and Ken Pomeroy’s H.U.M.A.N. poll to generate the necessary results and ratings. The summary:
- We’re using an average of kenpom and the HUMAN poll as our baseline rating, then making adjustments based on projected final overall record (how close it is to .500, a relevant variable in NCAA Tournament selection) and high/mid/low-major status (another relevant variable).
- We’re using kenpom to project final NET ranking, for the purpose of NIT automatic bids.
- We’re using kenpom to project conference tournament winners.
- To project NCAA Tournament bid thieves (in order to set the NIT cut line), we’re using our current best guess at the likeliest number. Right now, that best guess is that there will be two bid thieves, which results in Michigan and BYU appearing in both our NCAAT and NIT Bracketology.
- Drake and Dayton are both in NIT at-large territory but are favorites in their respective conference tournaments. We project it to be more than 50% likely that both lose, so we have both in our field.
- In a familiar refrain, we weren’t sure how to treat sub.-500 NIT at-large candidates. Sub-.500 teams are eligible for NIT automatic bids, but we don’t know how the committee will treat them on the at-large front. For now, we left them in, but for whatever it’s worth, we project Mississippi, Arizona State, and Vanderbilt to finish below .500, as well as Penn State and Washington, who are listed below in one version of our First Four Out.
Again, here’s the link to our NIT Bracketology, which we’re guessing is what most interests you.
If we continue including sub-.500 teams in at-large consideration, the following teams are our current First Four Out:
- Penn State
- VCU
- Colorado State
- Washington
If we exclude sub-.500 teams from at-large consideration, we add all three of VCU, Colorado State, and UCF to our bracket, and our First Four Out becomes:
- UAB
- St. Bonaventure
- Liberty*
- Yale*
- Grand Canyon*
- Washington State
- North Texas
The *’s there denote conference tournament favorites. That’s why we have seven teams in our modified First Four Out.
We aren’t sure when we’ll next update our bracketology, but the likeliest times are on Mondays. We would recommend checking our NIT Bracketology page every day, multiple times, and calling potential advertisers to tell them how much you look at it and how much of their goods and/or services you would purchase if they were to sponsor that page. That way, you don’t miss any updates.
