Our latest NIT Bracketology is up, and while the results of the Ivy League and Atlantic 10 tournament championships will change it, here’s what we’re looking at right now:
The Upper Bubble
- Last Five Out (NCAAT, from cut line going upwards): Arizona State, Mississippi State, Nevada, Illinois, Rutgers
- First Five In (NIT, from cut line going downwards): Wisconsin, NC State, North Texas, Clemson, Providence
- Other possible NCAAT teams: Pitt
- Other possible NIT teams: Oklahoma State
Our model disagrees with the consensus (using Bracket Matrix as the indication of said consensus) on three main points: We have Providence, NC State, and Pitt in the NIT. The consensus has Oklahoma State, Nevada, and Vanderbilt in the NIT.
To be completely transparent: We trust Bracket Matrix more than our model when it comes to the Upper Bubble. Our model is better this year than it was last year (it gets better every year, or so is our intent), but we don’t have a track record of beating Bracket Matrix, so we can’t promise that. I do think that what our model and Bracket Matrix combine to tell us is that these seven teams will be split into four NCAAT and three NIT bids:
- Providence
- NC State
- Arizona State
- Pitt
- Oklahoma State
- Nevada
- Vanderbilt
That list does not include Wisconsin, who would be a shock to see in the NCAA Tournament at this point. It likewise does not include Mississippi State or Rutgers, who would be shocks to see in the NIT. Our regular readers may remember that our model has been very high on the Badgers, but even it moved them out of the NCAAT this morning. Could something happen beyond the edges of this list? Yes. But I would estimate that as a <5% possibility.
NIT “Locks”
I hate calling anything a lock when it comes to the NIT, but Stu’s been doing it for the sake of content, and who am I to argue with the economic gods? Here’s who we think is safely in the NIT as an at-large bid:
- Wisconsin
- North Texas
- Clemson
- UNC
- Oregon
- New Mexico
- Michigan
- Liberty
- UAB
- Sam Houston State
- Florida
Those eleven, along with the three of the seven from the blurb above, should take up 14 of the 20, 21, or 22 NIT at-large bids available. We would be really surprised if one or more is not invited. More on the other seven, eight, or nine below.
As far as automatic bids, we have ten teams set, with the possibility to pick up two more. Here are those eleven:
- Eastern Washington (100%)
- UC Irvine (100%)
- Hofstra (100%)
- Youngstown State (100%)
- Toledo (100%)
- Bradley (100%)
- Morehead State (100%)
- Southern Miss (100%)
- Alcorn State (100%)
- Utah Valley (100%)
- VCU (49%, per KenPom)
- Yale (42%, per Princeton)
VCU and Yale are each into the NIT with a loss. Importantly (and more on this in a second), Yale making the NIT would make Dayton miss the NIT.
The Lower Bubble
- Last Eight In (NIT, from cut line going upwards): Seton Hall, Dayton, Virginia Tech, Washington State, Villanova, Colorado, Santa Clara, Cincinnati
- First Four Out: Nebraska, UCF, Wake Forest, San Jose State
- Next Four Out: Saint Louis, Marshall, UNLV, Utah
- Wildcards: St. John’s, BYU, Tulane, Loyola Marymount, Fordham
- Sub-.500: Oklahoma, Ohio State
Here’s where it gets really, really uncertain.
First, the Dayton/VCU clarity: We have Dayton in the NIT with a loss and VCU in the NIT with a win, and since the other is making the NCAAT, that means the game has no impact on our bracketology’s cut line. Now. Fans of Lower Bubble teams should still cheer for Dayton. We would only have them as just barely on the right side of 50%, so there’s a possibility they miss the NIT, whereas that possibility doesn’t exist for VCU, who has the auto bid in its back pocket. But Nebraska isn’t going to move into our bracketology with a VCU win, and Seton Hall isn’t going to move out.
Seton Hall *will* move out if Princeton beats Yale. If Yale comes to the NIT, that means there’s one fewer spot available, and it isn’t getting handed off the way it is with VCU and Dayton.
Again, a note for regular readers: We thought this was a clearer way to handle today’s bracket than putting the median number of automatic bids into the field. More likely than not, one of VCU and Yale will claim an automatic bid, but we’re leaving each of them out for the time being.
This leaves us, then, with either 20 or 21 teams competing for either seven or eight spots. Our model has them in the order above. John Templon, who approaches this in a very different way, has it otherwise. We strongly recommend checking both our bracketology and John’s to get a good look at the field. Our model is going to miss on some teams. We expect John to miss on some teams too. In the absence of an NIT Bracket Matrix, combining ours and John’s is our best recommendation. There are other NIT Bracketologies out there, and we don’t recommend against checking them as well, but we really trust John, just as much as we trust our model.
In our “Wildcards” section above, the five teams listed are teams who our model really doubts will make the NIT but who wouldn’t be gigantic surprises to us. What does that mean? Well, the NIT committee has only given us one 32-team bracket over the last three seasons, thanks to Covid. This means there’s a lot of uncertainty about how this year’s committee will operate. We can’t really average the behavior of the last three or four committees, like we do for the NCAA Tournament. We’re looking at last year and then it’s back to 2019 and beforehand.
Last year, the NIT committee’s choices aligned heavily with both NET and KenPom. Our model was built to allow the most space for this to regress in a different direction while still predicting last year’s field accurately. That means our model isn’t fully NET and KenPom, but those are the two biggest variables.
If this year’s committee pivots in a wholly different direction, we could see Tulane or Loyola Marymount or Fordham making the field. If this year’s committee pivots even further towards KenPom, BYU has a chance. St. John’s is just the ninth team in our list. They’re more like Utah than the other four here, but we could theoretically see it happening, and it would surprise our model. Remember: Xavier won the NIT with an interim coach last year.
Is it possible one of the teams beyond the 21 above could make the field as an at-large? Yes. With the NIT, a lot of things are possible. But we would be greatly surprised. If you’re hoping on South Alabama or James Madison, watch the NIT Selection Show. Why not, you know?
Two other things to mention are sub-.500 teams and opt-outs. Sub-.500 teams are simple: Wikipedia says the NIT will allow them, but the NIT has not allowed them since that sentence was posted on the internet, and that sentence has no indicated source. I’m not sure at this point that there was ever even an announcement to this effect. It’s possible there was, but regardless: We don’t expect the committee to take Ohio State or Oklahoma. Whether the rule exists or not, it seems to be enforced.
Opt-outs are weirder. We’ve already seen Texas Tech effectively opt out, basically announcing that they don’t want to play in the NIT. We haven’t seen that from other schools, unless we missed St. John’s or something, but we have seen a lot of speculation, specifically around UNC.
To UNC’s credit, they have said nothing, and I have seen no announcements from players that they’re going to transfer (which is part of what seemed to start the Texas Tech dominos). It’s possible this is merely a strategic move aimed at keeping alive whatever slim chance they have at NCAA Tournament selection, but our read is that they’re going to play. If the UNC brand is an honorable one, a Dean Smith and Roy Williams brand, you would imagine they would play in the tournament to which they earned invitation. If a program thinks itself too good for the NIT, said program should simply miss the NIT, and it can amplify embarrassment to decline one year, or to decline a home game, only to accept a few years later when current trends have continued to their natural end. More than that, though:
Opt-outs are really rare. There was Georgetown a long time ago. There was Georgia, informally, in 2018, when players asked to not be invited after Mark Fox was fired. There were teams in 2021—most notably Duke—but that was heavily tied to Covid and the fact the 2021 NIT was watered down. We aren’t going to guarantee anything on this front, but we do not expect opt-outs. When rumors of opt-outs circulate and we trace them back to the source, it’s always speculation turning into rumor. It’s not actual reports. With the exception of Texas Tech.
What’s Next?
The Ivy League Tournament championship is about to tip off on ESPN2. The A-10 championship will tip off at 1:00 PM EDT on CBS. We’ll update our brackets after the conclusion of the latter, and will have a new post then explaining what’s changed. Overall, though? This is the situation, as we see it, heading into today. Good luck to all involved, and a massive thank you to everyone visiting The Barking Crow today. We are grateful for your interest in the NIT, and we are grateful for your trust and/or hate-clicks.
We’ll see.
