Hello!
Apologies for our tardiness on this today, but our NIT Bracketology is now updated. Because we’re so late, we won’t be doing Stu’s Bracketology Rundown and Bubble Watch and Sunday Preview. He’ll be back tomorrow, for better and worse.
In place of all those things…
What Happened Yesterday
The big shifts from our bracket on Friday:
- Providence is now into the NIT projection, owing to their uninspiring team sheet and that terrible loss yesterday to Seton Hall.
- Auburn is now out of the NIT projection, the win over Tennessee solving all sorts of marginal problems on their résumé.
- Penn State is now out of the NIT projection, pushed upwards by others’ descents.
- Arizona State is now into the NIT projection, their quality win totals not expected to get high enough to get them out of our range after they missed the first two of what will probably be three last-minute Q1 win opportunities.
- Oklahoma State is now out of the NIT projection, their win over Texas Tech making it such that their overall win/loss record is no longer too close to .500 for NCAAT admission.
- Mississippi State is now into the NIT projection, sitting on the bid thief seat, having lost to Vanderbilt yesterday.
- This isn’t a shift, but Santa Clara’s narrowly hanging on to an at-large spot, even after last night’s loss to San Francisco.
- Utah fell out with the loss to Colorado. Colorado climbed in, beating Utah. This wasn’t unexpected, but it moved other ratings for each team more than our model expected.
- Seton Hall climbed in with the upset of Providence. They pushed Cincinnati out.
- Nevada is a whole lot closer after their loss to UNLV, and UNLV is a whole lot closer after their win over Nevada.
- Morehead State and Southern Miss are locked in as automatic bids. They’re our only two locks at the moment.
What’s Happening Today
Today’s NIT-impacting action, roughly in order of when it’ll happen:
- Memphis is hosting Houston, looking to eliminate themselves from NIT conversation.
- Penn State has a big game against Maryland that’s already underway in State College.
- Illinois has a chance at Purdue to completely escape the NIT conversation. Probably already safe, but this would lock them out of the NIT.
- Hofstra plays William & Mary in their CAA Tournament opener. Hofstra would get an NIT automatic bid with a loss.
- UNC Asheville plays Campbell in the Big South championship. With a win, Asheville avoids the NIT. With a loss, they get an automatic bid.
- Nebraska plays at Iowa. Iowa should be safe from us, but Nebraska could get back over .500 and also push up against that lower bubble if they don’t break through.
- Bradley plays Drake in the Missouri Valley championship. Bradley gets an automatic bid with a loss. Drake might get an at-large bid with a loss, but it’s not certain.
- Cincinnati hosts SMU, UCF hosts East Carolina, and Tulane hosts Temple, all three working on climbing that lower bubble ladder.
- Colgate hosts Army in the Patriot League semifinals. Colgate gets an NIT automatic bid with a loss.
- Kennesaw State hosts Liberty in the ASUN championship. Kennesaw State gets an NIT automatic bid with a loss, and I’m willing to say that Liberty would be an at-large lock if they lose. The only caveat would be that it can’t be a blowout. That would probably be fine, but it wouldn’t leave them a lock.
- Furman plays Western Carolina in the SoCon semifinals. Furman gets an automatic bid with a loss.
- Michigan’s at Indiana, looking for a big win on the upper bubble.
- James Madison and Louisiana are still vaguely in the lower bubble mix. They play South Alabama and Texas State, respectively, in the Sun Belt semifinals.
- College of Charleston opens its CAA Tournament against Stony Brook. That might be too bad a loss for Charleston to get an at-large NIT bid, if it happens.
- Wisconsin’s at Minnesota, and could really use a win there. Loss would push them forcefully back into NIT territory.
- Eastern Washington plays Northern Arizona in the Big Sky Tournament. EWU gets an automatic bid with a loss.
- Rutgers hosts Northwestern, and like Illinois, they’re trying to get out of the NIT conversation once and for all.
The Bubbles
Here’s where our NCAAT Selection Score grades the upper bubble. Remember, this is roughly each team’s median outcome. I’m including numbers to give an idea of how close things are, but please note that these numbers can change in big ways from things like hitting Q1 win thresholds (5 and 6, specifically) or getting one’s Q1/Q2 win percentage up over .450, or making one’s projected record in one’s last ten games worse than 3-7. Those aren’t the only buckets that can change, but those are examples. From top (fairly safely in the NCAAT) to bottom (NIT territory):
- Utah State: 35.7
- Missouri: 35.6
- Northwestern: 35.1
- Iowa: 35.1
- Arkansas: 35.0
- Florida Atlantic: 34.2
- Boise State: 33.6
- Memphis: 32.5
- USC: 31.8
- Rutgers: 31.2
- Illinois: 30.6
- Oklahoma State: 30.0
- Auburn: 29.7
- North Carolina State: 29.0
- Wisconsin: 28.9
- Nevada: 28.6
- Penn State: 27.4
- Mississippi State: 26.9 (Bid Thief Seat, everyone above here is projected to finish in the NCAA Tournament, everyone below is projected to finish in the NIT)
- Providence: 26.5
- Oregon: 26.3
- Pittsburgh: 25.6
- Arizona State: 25.2
- North Texas: 24.7
- Texas Tech: 24.6
- Michigan: 24.6
- Vanderbilt: 24.4
- Clemson: 24.1
- North Carolina 23.9
And here’s where our NIT Selection Score (different formula) grades the lower bubble. If your team’s in our NIT Bracketology, isn’t an automatic bid, and isn’t on either of these lists, they’re comfortably in the NIT field as of now. Also comfortably safe are Sam Houston State, Charleston, and Liberty, who aren’t in our NIT Bracketology because they’re their conference tournament favorites, as well as Oklahoma if Oklahoma wasn’t expected to finish below .500.
- Drake: 18.2
- Seton Hall: 17.5
- Washington State: 17.3
- Virginia Tech: 16.9
- Colorado: 16.7
- Kent State: 16.6
- Villanova: 16.5
- Ohio State: 16.5 (sub-.500, won’t make NIT due to Invisible .500 Rule)
- Santa Clara: 16.3 (last team in, everyone here and above is in the NIT window, everyone below is projected to finish in CBI territory)
- Cincinnati: 15.8 (First Four Out)
- Utah: 15.4 (First Four Out)
- Dayton: 15.4 (First Four Out if they weren’t the Atlantic 10 Tournament favorite)
- UCF: 14.7 (First Four Out)
- Nebraska: 14.6 (sub-.500)
- Wake Forest: 14.6 (First Four out)
- UNLV: 14.3
- Marshall: 14.3
- San Jose State: 14.1
- Louisiana: 14.0
- Saint Louis: 13.8
- St. John’s: 13.2
- BYU: 13.2
- Tulane: 12.7
- Loyola Marymount: 12.0
- James Madison: 11.8
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We’ll have bets up sometime this afternoon, and we’ll likely be on Twitter and in the comment section, so hit us up with questions if you have them. Fuller content again tomorrow!
