NIT Bracketology Rundown – March 11th

One day more.

Our latest NIT Bracketology is posted, accounting for the results of yesterday’s games. Here’s what you want to know:

2-Bid WAC, More Automatic Bids

We’re back up to twelve projected automatic bids, with nine already claimed. We believe only six more could be claimed—we think FAU is safely out of the NIT—and we assign those probabilities as follows (using KenPom or our best approximation):

• VCU: 65%
• Howard: 55%
• Toledo: 53%
• Yale: 50%
• Vermont: 34%
• Iona: 11%

If these break one way, we’ll get fewer than twelve automatic bids. If these break another, we’ll get more than twelve. At the moment, twelve is the median number, so that’s what we’re including in our bracket.

Another at-large bid was taken by Sam Houston State, as they and Utah Valley each lost in the WAC Tournament yesterday. This pushes everyone below Sam Houston State down a peg. Two bids vanished yesterday.

Upper Bubble

To be very clear on this: Our bracketology is purely formulas. We aren’t making any judgment calls. With one exception: On the Upper Bubble, if a team is in or out of the NCAA Tournament in all brackets posted to Bracket Matrix, or is in or out in all but one, we will defer to Bracket Matrix. Our NCAA Tournament Selection Formula is nuanced, but we would still trust Bracket Matrix more than it on the bubble.

This approach leaves us with three differences from Bracket Matrix today: The consensus has Providence, NC State, and Pitt all in the NCAA Tournament field. Our model has them all in the NIT, with Oklahoma State, Nevada, and Vanderbilt in the NCAAT instead. Again, we would trust Bracket Matrix over our model on these, but we do think our model may be pointing out that Providence, NC State, and Pitt may not be as safe as they seem, and that Oklahoma State, Nevada, and Vanderbilt have a better chance than the consensus gives them. We expect our model to miss on a couple teams on each bubble, but we don’t think our model is useless. If we thought that, we wouldn’t use it.

Mississippi State is currently in our Bid Thief Seat—the spot where we put a team in both the NCAA Tournament Bracketology and the NIT Bracketology because there’s still more likely than not one bid to be thieved—despite appearing fairly safely in the NCAA Tournament per Bracket Matrix. We will reexamine this and the rest today, knowing an absence of bid thieves could make the question irrelevant.

One other note? Wisconsin. Wisconsin is the one team we’re making an adjustment on from our model. Our model has them narrowly in the NCAA Tournament field, but with the exception of one lonely bracket, the entirety of Bracket Matrix has them out. So, we’re assuming there’s something our model is missing. We won’t call Wisconsin an NIT lock, but we also won’t be flippant enough to put them in our NCAA Tournament field. We think that would be misleading.

Overall, then, here’s how we more or less see it:

Last Eight NCAAT Teams, from the Bottom Going Upwards: Arizona State, Nevada, Illinois, Vanderbilt, Rutgers, Auburn, Oklahoma State, Iowa

First Four NIT Teams, from the Cut Line Going Downwards: Mississippi State, Wisconsin, NC State, Providence

Others in the NCAA Tournament Mix, per Bracket Matrix: Pitt, Possibly Clemson (we’re waiting on today’s full Bracket Matrix update)

Lower Bubble

On the Lower Bubble, there is no Bracket Matrix, so we let our formulas run wild. For better or worse, here’s where we see the situation:

Last Eight NIT Teams, from the Bottom Going Upwards: Virginia Tech, Colorado, Villanova, Santa Clara, Cincinnati, Florida, Sam Houston State, Pitt

First Four Out, from the Cut Line Going Downwards: Washington State, Seton Hall, Saint Louis, Nebraska

Next Four Out, Continuing Downwards: UCF, Wake Forest, San Jose State, Marshall

Below these teams, there are a handful we still think are in contention, mostly in scenarios where the committee takes an extreme approach in one direction or another. Of that handful, only Tulane and Fordham are still playing and able to actively improve their case.

Two more teams to note in this space?

Kent State, who plays Toledo today in the MAC Championship, a game with NIT Automatic Bid consequence, is between Cincinnati and Florida on our list right now, but in all scenarios where they don’t make the NCAA Tournament, they’ll have lost as a favorite and will likely drop.

Dayton, who plays in the A-10 semifinals today, not playing VCU directly but still holding NIT Automatic Bid consequence by association, is between Seton Hall and Saint Louis on our list right now. Again, though, in all scenarios where they don’t make the NCAA Tournament, they’ll have lost as a favorite and will likely drop.

Again, again, again, again: We expect to miss on a couple teams. We wouldn’t be surprised if there are wildcards who get in on the Lower Bubble. And there’s a lot of basketball to be played, conceivably closing off as many as five more bids (15 automatics plus bid thieves in the Big Ten and AAC), and conceivably opening up as many as four more (9 automatics plus no bid thieves).

Good luck out there. More from Stu shortly.