Our NIT Bracketology, NCAA Tournament Seed List, and NIT/NCAAT Probabilities are all updated to account for yesterday’s games. Only one significant change on the NIT Bracketology front, but we do have a little more opt-out news: Northwestern is not going to play. Not enough bodies, per Chris Collins, especially if Northwestern is contractually forced into the Crown, where they’d have to wait two weeks to play.
Moving In: St. Bonaventure
Moving Out: Oklahoma State
I wouldn’t make too much of this if I were Oklahoma State. The Pokes are still likelier than not to get an NIT call so long as the committee doesn’t go back to excluding at-large teams a little under .500 overall.
The bigger point here is that St. Bonaventure’s played its way into the projected field, and that’s even with an expected 10-point loss to VCU today. (That’s what happens in our model’s median simulation, and it’s what’s happening right now, with VCU leading Bonaventure by ten as I write this.)
The Big Ten, Nebraska, Bid Thieves, and the Crown
I understand there’s a decent number of Nebraska fans hoping they can avoid the Crown and play in the NIT. This is the reasonable thing to want. Nebraska would probably command a 1-seed in the NIT, or at least a 2-seed, meaning more games in Lincoln. Those games would come earlier than the Crown games would come. Nebraska would make a little money. (Nevada’s athletic director said recently that the Crown is revenue-neutral, while the NIT is a moneymaker for at least the home teams.) Competitively, the Crown and the NIT have comparable teams on their top lines, but the NIT will have much more depth, even with twice as many spots to fill. Nebraska could even conceivably play some old Big 12 rivals, depending what happens with Oklahoma State on one bubble and and Texas on the other. Also? The Crown has some issues.
If the Crown is indeed awarding automatic bids based on an average of NET and KPI, here are the Big Ten candidates and their corresponding number before today’s games:
- Indiana: 44.5
- Ohio State: 46.0
- Nebraska: 57.0
- Northwestern: 58.5
- Iowa: 70.5
At the moment, the consensus expects Ohio State to miss the NCAA Tournament. The consensus seems to think Indiana will hold onto a spot. The simplest way for Nebraska to make the NIT would involve both Ohio State and Indiana missing the cut. That could happen as things stand, and it could happen via bid thief, but it’s not especially likely to happen. It’s Nebraska’s best hope, but it’s less than 50% likely right now.
In the absence of that, Nebraska would need to lose a combined three or four spots in NET and KPI or see Northwestern gain enough spots to make up the difference.
NET: North Texas and UC Irvine sit immediately behind Nebraska in NET. Liberty is only four spots behind Nebraska. All three of those teams have at least two games left in the likeliest scenario.
KPI: Colorado State sits three spots behind Nebraska in KPI and is still playing.
There are some complications here—North Texas is also only one spot ahead of Northwestern in KPI, so it could be beneficial to Nebraska in that sense for North Texas to lose—but overall, Nebraska should be pulling for North Texas to win the AAC Tournament, Liberty to dominate the rest of the Conference USA Tournament, UC Irvine to win the Big West Tournament, and Colorado State to win the Mountain West Tournament. Not only could that close the NET/KPI gap with Northwestern, but it could push Ohio State and Indiana out of the NCAA Tournament field. North Texas would be a bid thief, with Memphis an at-large NCAAT lock. Colorado State would be a bid thief, with New Mexico and Utah State at-large NCAAT locks. UC Irvine could potentially be a bid thief, with UC San Diego not an unrealistic at-large candidate.
Beyond those, more wins by North Carolina, Texas, VCU (but only two more of those—you want VCU in as an at-large, not an automatic bid), Boise State, George Mason, and Dayton would all help to varying degrees. Some of those might push Northwestern’s NET and KPI in the wrong direction, but the bid thief upside is large. Also, with Northwestern already confirming it won’t play in the Crown (or the NIT) and the legal situation unclear regarding what happens to the second Big Ten automatic Crown bid if the team who’s offered declines…Nebraska wants bid thieves. Bid thieves would be great for those of us who want to see Nebraska in the NIT.
Ohio State’s 15 Losses
We left Ohio State in our Seed List today. We still might drop them. We’re considering it further. At the moment, though, we don’t see a better alternative for the committee given its preferences in previous seasons. Yes, Ohio State is only two games above .500, and no, they didn’t do that against the best schedule in the country, but the committee doesn’t like teams with terrible Q1 records, like North Carolina and Xavier. The committee doesn’t like teams with mediocre overall ratings like San Diego State and Boise State. The committee doesn’t always seem to account for conference tournament games, but Texas was close enough already and made its run early enough for the run to matter, right?
Again, we’ll continue to monitor and adjust. I think our final answer will probably include Ohio State out of the NCAA Tournament field. But if UNC loses tonight and there aren’t any bid thieves…the Buckeyes might be dancing.
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