Our college basketball model is updated through last night’s games. Here are its latest probabilities. Here’s its latest NIT Bracketology. Here’s where the NIT picture stands:
Last Four In, First Four Out, Etc.
On the low side:
- Last Four In (from the cut line going upwards): Florida State, NC State, San Francisco, Minnesota
- First Four Out (from the cut line going downwards): UNLV, Yale, LSU, Rutgers
- Others in the mix (>10% NIT chance, below NIT field, not in our field or in the First Four Out): Georgia, Loyola (IL), UMass, Miami (FL), Boston College, George Mason, Indiana, Cornell
On the high side:
- Last Four In (from the cut line going downwards): St. John’s, Utah, Providence, Seton Hall
- First Four Out (from the cut line going upwards): Villanova, Colorado, Virginia, New Mexico
As always, we account for bid thieves by looking at the median cut lines in our model’s simulations. Today, those remain 45th and 82nd, meaning if there was a master seed list for both tournaments, the 45th overall seed would be the last NCAAT at-large and the 82nd seed would be the last NIT at-large.
Conference Tournament Favorites
Because of where those cut lines stand and how many teams sit between them, we aren’t including any conference tournament favorites in our NIT Bracketology right now. Here, though, are all the conference tournament favorites more than 50% likely to make the NIT if they lose that conference tournament:
- Princeton
- Grand Canyon
- James Madison
- McNeese
- Samford
We have Indiana State narrowly more likely to receive an NCAAT at-large bid than an NIT at-large bid.
Where We’re an Outlier
We’ll go back to Bracket Matrix today to look at outliers. Here are the big disagreements, and some thoughts on each:
Gonzaga: Bracket Matrix Last Team In NCAAT, The Barking Crow NCAAT 7-Seed
Bracket Matrix is mostly a reflection of where things currently stand. We’re projecting where things will end up. The most likely scenario for Gonzaga is that they split these upcoming (likely) two games against Saint Mary’s. Also, Bracket Matrix hasn’t yet updated to include last night’s Zags win in San Francisco, which was a Q1 opportunity.
Are we too high on the Zags? Maybe a little, especially given this is our median scenario. But they’re a team who sits in a better place in traditional NCAAT seeding criteria than in traditional NCAAT selection criteria. I don’t think there’s a serious case for them finishing as an NIT team unless they get swept by Saint Mary’s, and even then, I’m not sure they wouldn’t have to lose in the WCC Tournament semifinals if they were to fall past the cut line.
Colorado: Bracket Matrix First Team Out of NCAAT; The Barking Crow NCAAT 10-Seed
As with Gonzaga, Colorado performs better by seeding criteria than selection criteria as far as the NCAAT goes. Also, we only have the Buffs two spots better than Bracket Matrix does (once our model has its tournament teams, it seeds them purely by seeding criteria, throwing selection position out the window). Still, the concern here is that the committee will say Colorado needs a Q1A win I’m not sure Colorado has, even if they get another Q1 win at Oregon or against Washington State in the hypothetical Pac-12 semifinals. Q1A wins are not something our model directly considers. We’re monitoring Colorado.
Villanova: Bracket Matrix Second Team Out of NCAAT; The Barking Crow NCAAT 11-Seed
Again, the difference is only two spots here, but they’re important spots. This is one where I feel better about our model, because Villanova already won at Creighton and beat UNC, taking care of that Q1A issue. Our median scenario has them going 3–3 from here and either beating Creighton again or upsetting Marquette in the Big East quarterfinals. That would include two more Q1 wins and no more bad losses, and it would leave them 19–15, which is generally an acceptable number to the committee.
St. John’s: Bracket Matrix Fourth Team Out of NCAAT; The Barking Crow Bid Thief Seat
This is a bigger difference (three spots, not two), although to be fair, the differences between Villanova, Utah, and St. John’s in Bracket Matrix are miniscule, and if the expected number of bid thieves happen, we’ll end up with St. John’s as an NIT 1-seed and an NIT 1-seed alone, just like Bracket Matrix (which currently is projecting two bid thieves, because South Florida and Richmond lead FAU and Dayton, respectively, in their conference standings). Still, this is something we want to explore, because with St. John’s only facing DePaul and Georgetown from here in the regular season, it can’t be chalked up to our model’s consideration of future schedule.
One possibility of what’s happening with St. John’s is that because our model doesn’t consider conference tiebreakers, it’s overweighting the probability of St. John’s getting the Big East 5-seed and getting to play Seton Hall in that tournament’s quarterfinals rather than Creighton. The Johnnies would be favored over Seton Hall. They would not be favored over Creighton. And while Seton Hall would not be a Q2 win, that extra victory could matter in our model’s eyes.
This is another one we’re going to monitor. There’s a lot of emotion around St. John’s because of Rick Pitino, and emotion is another thing our model does not account for as much as we wish it could.
Seton Hall: Bracket Matrix Fourth-to-Last Team In NCAAT; The Barking Crow Fourth Team Out
I would guess Q1A wins is driving this seven-spot difference, especially because our model has Seton Hall likelier to beat one of Villanova and UConn in their next two games than to get swept, which in theory should help the Pirates climb even higher. Seton Hall has beaten both UConn and Marquette. We are monitoring this one as well.
Providence: Bracket Matrix Second-to-Last Team In NCAAT; The Barking Crow Third Team Out
The Big East really has the bubble packed.
Again, we aren’t very confident in our model here, again because of Q1A wins (Providence beat Marquette at home). If Providence beats Villanova tomorrow, which our model does expect but only has 51% likely (our model uses kenpom as the starting point for game simulations), the Friars might gain ground. We’ll monitor it, but this is likelier to take care of itself than Colorado, St. John’s, Seton Hall, or…
Utah: Bracket Matrix Third Team Out of NCAAT; The Barking Crow Bid Thief Seat
This is only a one-spot difference, and as we said above, Utah is negligibly different from Villanova and St. John’s in Bracket Matrix’s eyes. I do think there’s a case for the committee ultimately valuing Utah’s wins over BYU, Wake Forest, and Colorado more highly than Bracket Matrix does, because those teams are all dramatically better in NET (and therefore on Utah’s Team Sheet) than they are in the narrative. But, Bracket Matrix has a better track record than we do. Utah may need to win out through the regular season, which would include a win at Oregon where the Utes currently are not favored.
**
Overall, on the bubble, we feel good about our model’s assessment of Villanova (meaning, we think Villanova will make the tournament). We also feel good about its assessment of Gonzaga (who will also probably make it). We aren’t as confident in how it’s measuring St. John’s (we think it’s overvaluing them), Seton Hall (undervaluing), Providence (undervaluing), Colorado (overvaluing), and Utah (overvaluing). Of those, we feel least confident in how it’s assessing Seton Hall. It might be time to start using our Seed List as our subjective bracket, as we’ve been planning to do.
One more disagreement, not on the bubble:
Kansas: Bracket Matrix NCAAT 2-Seed, The Barking Crow NCAAT 4-Seed
We find that seeding around the top has a lot of correlation with the AP Poll, and the AP Poll obviously is currently head over heels for Kansas. But, the AP Poll will update on Monday to account for Kansas’s loss to BYU, and it will probably also have a loss at Baylor to account for. Then, Kansas is more likely to lose at Houston than win, leaving them on a 1–3 run going into the Big 12 Tournament, where they’re probably going to get stuck as a 5, 6, or 7-seed rather than receiving a bye to the quarterfinals. If the Jayhawks finish 2–4 from here, I have a hard time believing they get a 2-seed. But, our model might be low, because while we built our model to expect the AP Poll to be dumb, the AP Poll can out-dumb just about anybody. If the committee sticks with that perception, Kansas might get to open the tournament in Omaha.
Programming Notes
We’re tentatively planning on updating the bracketology on Sunday morning, but we may only update it and not give it a full writeup, especially because we’re still a little worried about our model’s ripple effects. (Short-ish version: because of timing of updates, our model guesses at how NET, SOR, and KPI will react to results, and we aren’t all that confident in the guess because we haven’t had a lot of opportunities to properly calibrate it, having launched the model so late in the season. So, it takes two days for us to feel confident in how our model is measuring a surprising outcome.)
If you’re wanting our best guess at the impact of Saturday’s results, wait until Monday. If you’re ok riding some uncertainty, check the brackets on Sunday. Just make sure to come back on Monday, then, as well.
For the Archives
| Team | Conference | Make NCAA Tournament | Win NCAA Tournament | Make NIT | Win NIT |
| Cincinnati | Big 12 | 16.7% | 0.0% | 83.2% | 5.9% |
| St. John’s | Big East | 56.6% | 0.2% | 43.5% | 4.5% |
| Villanova | Big East | 58.4% | 0.2% | 41.6% | 4.5% |
| Pitt | ACC | 5.3% | 0.0% | 94.1% | 4.1% |
| Colorado | Pac-12 | 62.8% | 0.3% | 37.2% | 4.0% |
| Iowa | Big Ten | 13.5% | 0.0% | 86.1% | 3.4% |
| SMU | American | 25.4% | 0.0% | 73.6% | 3.3% |
| Wake Forest | ACC | 77.9% | 0.4% | 22.1% | 3.2% |
| Xavier | Big East | 5.6% | 0.0% | 67.6% | 3.1% |
| Maryland | Big Ten | 1.8% | 0.0% | 80.4% | 3.0% |
| Drake | Missouri Valley | 28.1% | 0.0% | 71.9% | 3.0% |
| Florida Atlantic | American | 67.1% | 0.2% | 33.0% | 2.7% |
| Virginia Tech | ACC | 6.7% | 0.0% | 89.6% | 2.7% |
| TCU | Big 12 | 75.4% | 0.2% | 24.6% | 2.7% |
| Ohio State | Big Ten | 5.8% | 0.0% | 93.4% | 2.7% |
| Utah | Pac-12 | 47.2% | 0.1% | 52.8% | 2.5% |
| New Mexico | Mountain West | 73.8% | 0.2% | 26.2% | 2.4% |
| Washington | Pac-12 | 4.0% | 0.0% | 88.0% | 2.4% |
| Oregon | Pac-12 | 8.7% | 0.0% | 89.4% | 2.3% |
| Butler | Big East | 1.9% | 0.0% | 91.8% | 2.2% |
| Indiana State | Missouri Valley | 70.9% | 0.1% | 29.1% | 2.1% |
| Oklahoma | Big 12 | 75.0% | 0.2% | 25.0% | 1.8% |
| Texas A&M | SEC | 24.9% | 0.0% | 73.9% | 1.8% |
| UCF | Big 12 | 0.8% | 0.0% | 74.1% | 1.8% |
| Gonzaga | WCC | 90.5% | 0.8% | 9.5% | 1.7% |
| Seton Hall | Big East | 35.7% | 0.1% | 64.3% | 1.7% |
| Providence | Big East | 38.9% | 0.0% | 61.0% | 1.6% |
| Boise State | Mountain West | 81.9% | 0.2% | 18.1% | 1.5% |
| Princeton | Ivy League | 45.3% | 0.0% | 54.7% | 1.4% |
| Texas Tech | Big 12 | 84.5% | 0.2% | 15.6% | 1.3% |
| Michigan State | Big Ten | 89.7% | 0.7% | 10.3% | 1.3% |
| Minnesota | Big Ten | 1.3% | 0.0% | 66.2% | 1.2% |
| Mississippi | SEC | 14.6% | 0.0% | 84.5% | 1.1% |
| Memphis | American | 12.5% | 0.0% | 87.2% | 1.0% |
| James Madison | Sun Belt | 40.4% | 0.0% | 59.6% | 1.0% |
| Richmond | Atlantic 10 | 14.1% | 0.0% | 81.8% | 1.0% |
| Kansas State | Big 12 | 13.9% | 0.0% | 79.4% | 0.9% |
| Bradley | Missouri Valley | 19.7% | 0.0% | 77.3% | 0.8% |
| Syracuse | ACC | 14.4% | 0.0% | 85.5% | 0.8% |
| Nebraska | Big Ten | 89.5% | 0.1% | 10.5% | 0.8% |
| NC State | ACC | 1.8% | 0.0% | 55.2% | 0.6% |
| Grand Canyon | WAC | 71.2% | 0.1% | 28.8% | 0.6% |
| San Francisco | WCC | 8.9% | 0.0% | 51.7% | 0.5% |
| Colorado State | Mountain West | 94.7% | 0.2% | 5.3% | 0.5% |
| LSU | SEC | 0.7% | 0.0% | 55.3% | 0.5% |
| St. Bonaventure | Atlantic 10 | 8.3% | 0.0% | 69.7% | 0.5% |
| Virginia | ACC | 80.9% | 0.0% | 19.1% | 0.5% |
| Florida State | ACC | 2.2% | 0.0% | 52.6% | 0.5% |
| Mississippi State | SEC | 95.2% | 0.4% | 4.8% | 0.5% |
| Nevada | Mountain West | 95.3% | 0.2% | 4.7% | 0.4% |
| Texas | Big 12 | 95.9% | 0.3% | 4.2% | 0.4% |
| Georgia | SEC | 0.2% | 0.0% | 28.4% | 0.4% |
| VCU | Atlantic 10 | 10.7% | 0.0% | 66.4% | 0.3% |
| UNLV | Mountain West | 9.5% | 0.0% | 40.7% | 0.3% |
| Rutgers | Big Ten | 0.9% | 0.0% | 35.2% | 0.3% |
| Appalachian State | Sun Belt | 30.3% | 0.0% | 43.3% | 0.3% |
| Saint Mary’s | WCC | 98.5% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| South Florida | American | 11.8% | 0.0% | 67.3% | 0.2% |
| UMass | Atlantic 10 | 7.2% | 0.0% | 15.9% | 0.2% |
| Samford | SoCon | 36.8% | 0.0% | 34.5% | 0.2% |
| McNeese | Southland | 82.3% | 0.0% | 17.4% | 0.2% |
| Yale | Ivy League | 33.2% | 0.0% | 19.7% | 0.1% |
| Utah State | Mountain West | 98.5% | 0.2% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Miami (FL) | ACC | 0.6% | 0.0% | 14.3% | 0.1% |
| Boston College | ACC | 0.5% | 0.0% | 13.0% | 0.1% |
| George Mason | Atlantic 10 | 3.9% | 0.0% | 11.6% | 0.1% |
| Northwestern | Big Ten | 98.0% | 0.2% | 2.0% | 0.1% |
| Indiana | Big Ten | 0.3% | 0.0% | 11.3% | 0.1% |
| Penn State | Big Ten | 0.5% | 0.0% | 3.7% | 0.1% |
| Loyola (IL) | Atlantic 10 | 7.4% | 0.0% | 24.4% | 0.1% |
| Florida | SEC | 99.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| North Texas | American | 7.5% | 0.0% | 2.7% | 0.0% |
| Cornell | Ivy League | 17.9% | 0.0% | 10.8% | 0.0% |
| UC Irvine | Big West | 59.9% | 0.0% | 6.9% | 0.0% |
| Washington State | Pac-12 | 99.7% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Duquesne | Atlantic 10 | 2.9% | 0.0% | 6.6% | 0.0% |
| USC | Pac-12 | 1.1% | 0.0% | 3.6% | 0.0% |
| UAB | American | 2.3% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Oklahoma State | Big 12 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| South Carolina | SEC | 100.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| San Diego State | Mountain West | 100.0% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Saint Joseph’s | Atlantic 10 | 3.0% | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Charlotte | American | 6.1% | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Arkansas | SEC | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Louisiana Tech | Conference USA | 41.1% | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Vermont | America East | 60.2% | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Arizona State | Pac-12 | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| College of Charleston | CAA | 24.8% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Davidson | Atlantic 10 | 2.4% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Cal | Pac-12 | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| UCLA | Pac-12 | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Georgetown | Big East | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Missouri | SEC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Akron | MAC | 42.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Stanford | Pac-12 | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Georgia Tech | ACC | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| West Virginia | Big 12 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Houston | Big 12 | 100.0% | 18.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Purdue | Big Ten | 100.0% | 12.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| UConn | Big East | 100.0% | 11.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Arizona | Pac-12 | 100.0% | 7.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tennessee | SEC | 100.0% | 7.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Auburn | SEC | 100.0% | 5.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alabama | SEC | 100.0% | 4.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Duke | ACC | 100.0% | 3.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| North Carolina | ACC | 100.0% | 3.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marquette | Big East | 100.0% | 3.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Iowa State | Big 12 | 100.0% | 2.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Creighton | Big East | 100.0% | 2.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Illinois | Big Ten | 100.0% | 2.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Baylor | Big 12 | 100.0% | 1.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kansas | Big 12 | 100.0% | 1.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| BYU | Big 12 | 100.0% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kentucky | SEC | 100.0% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Clemson | ACC | 100.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dayton | Atlantic 10 | 100.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wisconsin | Big Ten | 100.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Morehead State | Ohio Valley | 52.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Colgate | Patriot League | 66.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| South Dakota State | Summit League | 55.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Merrimack | NEC | 54.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| High Point | Big South | 49.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Norfolk State | MEAC | 30.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eastern Kentucky | ASUN | 30.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eastern Washington | Big Sky | 29.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Central Connecticut State | NEC | 29.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Youngstown State | Horizon League | 27.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| North Carolina Central | MEAC | 26.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Southern | SWAC | 26.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lipscomb | ASUN | 25.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Oakland | Horizon League | 25.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Weber State | Big Sky | 24.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| UMass Lowell | America East | 22.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Liberty | Conference USA | 22.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Fairfield | MAAC | 21.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stetson | ASUN | 20.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hofstra | CAA | 20.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Little Rock | Ohio Valley | 19.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Toledo | MAC | 19.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| UNC Wilmington | CAA | 18.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Montana | Big Sky | 18.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Drexel | CAA | 17.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Texas Southern | SWAC | 17.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grambling State | SWAC | 16.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wright State | Horizon League | 16.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Howard | MEAC | 16.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| UNC Asheville | Big South | 15.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| UT Martin | Ohio Valley | 15.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Saint Peter’s | MAAC | 15.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ohio | MAC | 15.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Western Carolina | SoCon | 14.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chattanooga | SoCon | 14.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Iona | MAAC | 13.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Quinnipiac | MAAC | 13.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| UNC Greensboro | SoCon | 13.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marist | MAAC | 13.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Western Kentucky | Conference USA | 12.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Winthrop | Big South | 12.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| South Carolina State | MEAC | 12.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alcorn State | SWAC | 12.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| American | Patriot League | 12.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sam Houston State | Conference USA | 12.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Long Beach State | Big West | 11.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Seattle | WAC | 11.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Troy | Sun Belt | 11.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Northern Colorado | Big Sky | 11.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Texas A&M-Corpus Christi | Southland | 11.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kansas City | Summit League | 11.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jackson State | SWAC | 11.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| UC Davis | Big West | 10.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Furman | SoCon | 10.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Austin Peay | ASUN | 10.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sacred Heart | NEC | 9.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| North Dakota | Summit League | 9.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bryant | America East | 9.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Delaware State | MEAC | 9.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Niagara | MAAC | 9.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kent State | MAC | 8.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| UT Arlington | WAC | 8.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gardner-Webb | Big South | 8.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Arkansas State | Sun Belt | 8.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Purdue Fort Wayne | Horizon League | 8.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Green Bay | Horizon League | 8.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Towson | CAA | 8.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Western Illinois | Ohio Valley | 7.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Omaha | Summit League | 7.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Northern Kentucky | Horizon League | 7.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hawaii | Big West | 6.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rider | MAAC | 6.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bethune-Cookman | SWAC | 6.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lehigh | Patriot League | 6.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Longwood | Big South | 6.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alabama State | SWAC | 6.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Denver | Summit League | 5.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| North Dakota State | Summit League | 5.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jacksonville State | Conference USA | 5.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Southern Illinois | Missouri Valley | 5.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mount St. Mary’s | MAAC | 5.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Miami (OH) | MAC | 5.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Delaware | CAA | 5.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Louisiana | Sun Belt | 5.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Portland State | Big Sky | 5.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| UC Santa Barbara | Big West | 4.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Montana State | Big Sky | 4.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wofford | SoCon | 4.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Boston University | Patriot League | 4.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lafayette | Patriot League | 4.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Belmont | Missouri Valley | 4.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bucknell | Patriot League | 4.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bowling Green State | MAC | 4.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Northern Iowa | Missouri Valley | 4.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cleveland State | Horizon League | 4.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| North Florida | ASUN | 4.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Radford | Big South | 4.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Oral Roberts | Summit League | 4.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Idaho State | Big Sky | 3.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| East Tennessee State | SoCon | 3.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Florida Gulf Coast | ASUN | 3.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wagner | NEC | 3.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Utah Valley | WAC | 3.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| UTEP | Conference USA | 3.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lamar | Southland | 3.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| North Alabama | ASUN | 3.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Morgan State | MEAC | 3.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Central Michigan | MAC | 3.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stephen F. Austin | WAC | 2.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Canisius | MAAC | 2.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| New Hampshire | America East | 2.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Milwaukee | Horizon League | 2.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Santa Clara | WCC | 2.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Arkansas-Pine Bluff | SWAC | 2.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| SIU Edwardsville | Ohio Valley | 2.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Fairleigh Dickinson | NEC | 2.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stony Brook | CAA | 2.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| UC Riverside | Big West | 2.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Presbyterian | Big South | 2.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cal State Northridge | Big West | 2.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Monmouth | CAA | 2.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tennessee State | Ohio Valley | 2.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maine | America East | 1.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholls | Southland | 1.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kennesaw State | ASUN | 1.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brown | Ivy League | 1.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Harvard | Ivy League | 1.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Murray State | Missouri Valley | 1.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ball State | MAC | 1.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alabama A&M | SWAC | 1.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mercer | SoCon | 1.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| California Baptist | WAC | 1.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Albany | America East | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maryland Eastern Shore | MEAC | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| UMBC | America East | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cal State Bakersfield | Big West | 1.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| South Dakota | Summit League | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Georgia State | Sun Belt | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tulane | American | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Middle Tennessee | Conference USA | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Northern Arizona | Big Sky | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Southeastern Louisiana | Southland | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| South Alabama | Sun Belt | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Missouri State | Missouri Valley | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Western Michigan | MAC | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Abilene Christian | WAC | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Northeastern | CAA | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Texas State | Sun Belt | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Binghamton | America East | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Southern Miss | Sun Belt | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eastern Illinois | Ohio Valley | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Idaho | Big Sky | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Navy | Patriot League | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| LIU | NEC | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cal State Fullerton | Big West | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| New Mexico State | Conference USA | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| USC Upstate | Big South | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wichita State | American | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jacksonville | ASUN | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Illinois State | Missouri Valley | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| FIU | Conference USA | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charleston Southern | Big South | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Coppin State | MEAC | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marshall | Sun Belt | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| East Carolina | American | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| The Citadel | SoCon | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Saint Francis | NEC | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| UIC | Missouri Valley | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Evansville | Missouri Valley | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sacramento State | Big Sky | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Temple | American | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Northwestern State | Southland | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tulsa | American | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Loyola Marymount | WCC | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rice | American | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Army | Patriot League | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Fordham | Atlantic 10 | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Campbell | CAA | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Columbia | Ivy League | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Georgia Southern | Sun Belt | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rhode Island | Atlantic 10 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Manhattan | MAAC | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| La Salle | Atlantic 10 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Robert Morris | Horizon League | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wyoming | Mountain West | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Louisiana Monroe | Sun Belt | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Oregon State | Pac-12 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Notre Dame | ACC | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| San Diego | WCC | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Holy Cross | Patriot League | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Prairie View A&M | SWAC | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| George Washington | Atlantic 10 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elon | CAA | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tennessee Tech | Ohio Valley | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Saint Louis | Atlantic 10 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Fresno State | Mountain West | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Loyola (MD) | Patriot League | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William & Mary | CAA | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Pepperdine | WCC | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michigan | Big Ten | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Coastal Carolina | Sun Belt | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Old Dominion | Sun Belt | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Valparaiso | Missouri Valley | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Siena | MAAC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Central Arkansas | ASUN | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| UTSA | American | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| North Carolina A&T | CAA | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Incarnate Word | Southland | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stonehill | NEC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eastern Michigan | MAC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| San Jose State | Mountain West | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| New Orleans | Southland | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hampton | CAA | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Detroit Mercy | Horizon League | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Southern Utah | WAC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| VMI | SoCon | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Houston Christian | Southland | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Portland | WCC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tarleton | WAC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| NJIT | America East | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Le Moyne | NEC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Air Force | Mountain West | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Penn | Ivy League | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Louisville | ACC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bellarmine | ASUN | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Queens | ASUN | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| DePaul | Big East | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| UC San Diego | Big West | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cal Poly | Big West | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| IUPUI | Horizon League | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chicago State | Independent | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dartmouth | Ivy League | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Buffalo | MAC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Northern Illinois | MAC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lindenwood | Ohio Valley | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Southern Indiana | Ohio Valley | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Southeast Missouri State | Ohio Valley | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Vanderbilt | SEC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Texas A&M-Commerce | Southland | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| St. Thomas | Summit League | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Florida A&M | SWAC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mississippi Valley State | SWAC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Utah Tech | WAC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| UT Rio Grande Valley | WAC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Pacific | WCC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
