Our college basketball model is live now, in its full and final form. If you’re interested in how it works, you can read about that here. If you’re looking for NIT Bracketology or our model’s estimation of each team’s probability of making/winning the NIT, we have those things for you as well.
A quick note, before we get into the First Four Out and the rest:
As we converted our model from the medium version to the full version, we found an error in the medium version we hadn’t previously noticed. Its variable for how much season was remaining was flipped. Rather than saying, on Monday, that 22% of the season remained, it thought 78% of the season remained. This created some inaccuracies in our bracketologies, and it was only getting worse over time. Thankfully, not too many teams were too dramatically affected, but if your team inexplicably moved between Monday’s bracketology and today’s, there are two possible explanations: One is that their real schedule, which our full model considers, is more or less advantageous than the average schedule our medium model was working with. The other is that the very stupid glitch we created in the medium model was pulling your team in an inaccurate direction. Our apologies if you were affected by this. We messed up.
We should be in better shape from here on out. It wouldn’t surprise me if our full model has a few bugs (we typed the final code a little after midnight last night, while Washington State was doing magical things in Tucson), and our model has its natural shortcomings, but we’ll communicate about all that as it stands. Today’s NIT Bracketology is our best prediction of the eventual NIT field. Let’s get into it.
First Four In, Last Four Out, Etc.
On the low side:
- Last Four In (from the cut line going upwards): NC State, Yale, VCU, George Mason
- First Four Out (from the cut line going downwards): Florida State, Cornell, South Florida, Georgia
- Others in the mix (>10% NIT chance, below NIT field, not in our field or in the First Four Out): UCF, Rutgers, UMass, Boston College, Miami (FL), UNLV, Loyola (IL), St. Bonaventure, North Texas, Duquesne
On the high side:
- Last Four In (from the cut line going downwards): Utah, Providence, Drake, Mississippi
- First Four Out (from the cut line going upwards): Texas A&M, Virginia, Gonzaga, Villanova
Indiana State, Princeton, and Other Conference Tournament Favorites
One thing we were surprised by when we ran our model was how low it placed the expected NIT cut line. We thought it would be at 80th in the mythical master seed list. It’s at 82nd. This is a small distinction, but it makes a difference. There are more at-large spots available than we expected. Part of this is that some of the NCAAT bid thieves our model expects come from the NIT at-large field. Part of it is that certain conference tournament favorites who lose their conference tournaments will likely fall out of the NIT as a result of the specific loss. The only conference tournament favorite we put into today’s field (something we do to keep that cut line accurate) is Princeton. Indiana State, Grand Canyon, and James Madison all have a good NIT chance if they lose their conference tournament, though, and McNeese, Samford, and UC Irvine are also in that mix.
The Favorites
We have those probabilities now, so for the sake of fun…
The ten likeliest teams to make the NIT:
- Pitt: 87.9%
- St. John’s: 85.2%
- Syracuse: 83.7%
- Oregon: 82.4%
- Xavier: 80.6%
- Ohio State: 78.6%
- Iowa: 78.4%
- Washington: 75.4%
- Virginia Tech: 74.6%
- Cincinnati: 74.1%
None of these teams are guaranteed to make the NIT—we expect eight to make it and two to miss it, per those probabilities—but these are the ten NIT-likeliest. Syracuse? Mea culpa for our previous doubt. Mea maxima culpa.
The ten likeliest teams to win the NIT:
- Colorado: 6.2%
- SMU: 5.5%
- Cincinnati: 4.6%
- St. John’s: 4.3%
- Wake Forest: 4.1%
- Gonzaga: 4.1%
- Villanova: 3.6%
- Xavier: 3.4%
- Virginia Tech: 3.2%
- Iowa: 3.1%
These are some low, low, low probabilities. There’s a 58% chance one of these ten teams doesn’t win the NIT. With the NCAA Tournament, there’s only a 23% chance a non-top-ten contender wins it. Thanks to a confluence of factors—how tightly packed the bubble always is and the elimination of the previous NIT automatic bid system, to name the biggest two—the NIT should be expected to be extremely competitive. That’s on paper, too. In the real world, the chaos factor can be expected to be even larger. (We don’t know if Cody Williams will or won’t play if Colorado makes the NIT.)
Also notably, three of the teams on this list are less than 40% likely to make the NIT, and Wake and Gonzaga are each less than 30% likely to make it. If you’re setting a futures market for this, let us at it. We will probably lose money to you. This is a wacky list.
Where We’re an Outlier
We mentioned this elsewhere, but we’re going to be using our NCAAT seed list to do some subjective bracketology in addition to the objective bracketology our model pumps out. We won’t start that for a little while—the bubble’s contours are still taking shape—but in that sort of vein, here’s where our model differs most from Bracket Matrix (on the NCAAT side) and John Templon’s NIT Bracketology (on the NIT side), and what we think about the big disagreements:
Gonzaga: Bracket Matrix 11-seed, The Barking Crow 8-seed
We aren’t sure this is really a disagreement. Gonzaga’s our third team out of the NIT on the high side. We’re assigning them a 2-in-7 chance of missing the NCAA Tournament. What’s happening, we think, is that because Gonzaga’s on the bubble, most bracketologies are placing them as an 11-seed now and will change that closer to the tournament, when they start looking at how the committee will actually seed the teams in question. The committee seeds differently than it selects. Gonzaga should seed rather well, provided it does stay above the cut line.
Wake Forest: Bracket Matrix First Four Out, The Barking Crow 9-seed
Again, we aren’t sure this is a disagreement. We’re predicting Wake Forest will pick up some Q1 wins in what’s looking like three chances down the stretch (plus quite possibly more in the ACC Tournament). We’re guessing most bracketologists would agree if their methods were forward-looking like ours. Not that they should be. Predictive vs. Reflective is a matter of preference. But this far out from Selection Sunday, the difference creates some odd optics. Wake should get it done. Whether they do or don’t, I’d guess our model and the consensus will form at least a loose agreement when the rest of the cake gets baked.
Villanova: Bracket Matrix Next Four Out, The Barking Crow 10-seed
As with Wake, Villanova has good chances remaining to fix its team sheet. Even if they lose tomorrow at UConn, they’ll have shots against Providence (A), Seton Hall (A), Creighton (H), and whoever they play in the Big East Tournament. Those are good opportunities.
Seton Hall: Bracket Matrix 11-seed, The Barking Crow NIT unseeded
Oh boy.
Seton Hall is only the fourth team out of our NCAAT Bracketology. Sixth, when you account for bid thieves. They have a good NCAAT Selection Score and a bad NIT Seeding Score in our model. Still, I was most surprised to see this output from our model today. If there’s one readout from our model that I don’t like today, it’s this one. My guess is that Q1A wins are the culprit here.
That said, if Seton Hall does miss the NCAAT field (and they’re close to missing it on Bracket Matrix, with some tough games ahead), they’re liable to slip pretty far through the NIT. Their NET isn’t great, so other Big East teams are likelier to get the automatic bids and the home games that come with them. It currently looks like it’ll be hard for an at-large NIT bid to get a 4-seed. It might be hard to get a 3-seed as well. You may have to either be a 2-seed or play on the road.
Miami (FL): John Templon NIT unseeded, The Barking Crow NIT in the mix
I’m not sure how close John has Rutgers to the cut line, but we have Rutgers only barely out of the NIT, so we’ll focus on Miami here, whom John has as an unseeded at-large bid and we have only 2-in-7 likely to make the NIT. (There’s that 2-in-7 number again.)
It appears John last updated his Current NIT Bracket projection on Wednesday morning, before Miami lost by 29 points at home and saw their kenpom ranking drop 14 places. Still, it’s worth considering the Hurricanes for an at-large bid. They’ve beaten NIT bubble teams Georgia, Kansas State, and UCF, they’ve beaten likely NIT teams Pitt and Virginia Tech (twice), they’ve beaten NCAA Tournament near-lock Clemson, and their only really bad loss was the one against Louisville. They made the NCAA Tournament’s Final Four last season with mostly the same roster. They’re dealing with and have dealt with injuries (I believe only one of their players has played in all 27 of their games). Our model doesn’t consider injuries, but the bottom line is: Miami is a weird team. Keep an eye on them.
**
We’d like to compare our probabilities to Bart Torvik’s on the NCAAT bubble, but we’re going to save that for Monday, because the games are approaching and we have a few more things to get done. Here’s the NIT Bracketology graphic. We’ll plan to update our probabilities again on Sunday and our bracketologies again on Monday.
And last, for archival purposes, the full probabilities from our model today:
| Team | Conference | Make NCAA Tournament | Win NCAA Tournament | Make NIT | Win NIT |
| Colorado | Pac-12 | 34.0% | 0.1% | 65.9% | 6.2% |
| SMU | American | 27.9% | 0.0% | 71.9% | 5.5% |
| Cincinnati | Big 12 | 25.5% | 0.0% | 74.1% | 4.6% |
| St. John’s | Big East | 13.0% | 0.0% | 85.2% | 4.3% |
| Wake Forest | ACC | 71.4% | 0.6% | 28.6% | 4.1% |
| Gonzaga | WCC | 71.4% | 0.5% | 28.6% | 4.1% |
| Villanova | Big East | 62.6% | 0.3% | 37.4% | 3.6% |
| Xavier | Big East | 11.0% | 0.0% | 80.6% | 3.4% |
| Virginia Tech | ACC | 23.3% | 0.0% | 74.6% | 3.2% |
| Iowa | Big Ten | 18.3% | 0.0% | 78.4% | 3.1% |
| Pitt | ACC | 4.9% | 0.0% | 87.9% | 2.9% |
| Maryland | Big Ten | 1.8% | 0.0% | 71.0% | 2.7% |
| Drake | Missouri Valley | 49.0% | 0.1% | 51.0% | 2.7% |
| Oregon | Pac-12 | 16.5% | 0.0% | 82.4% | 2.5% |
| Indiana State | Missouri Valley | 64.6% | 0.1% | 35.4% | 2.3% |
| Utah | Pac-12 | 53.9% | 0.1% | 45.9% | 2.1% |
| Texas | Big 12 | 76.6% | 0.3% | 23.4% | 1.9% |
| Oklahoma | Big 12 | 74.8% | 0.2% | 25.3% | 1.9% |
| Butler | Big East | 24.3% | 0.0% | 73.8% | 1.8% |
| Ohio State | Big Ten | 1.6% | 0.0% | 78.6% | 1.8% |
| Washington | Pac-12 | 3.7% | 0.0% | 75.4% | 1.7% |
| TCU | Big 12 | 80.8% | 0.3% | 19.2% | 1.5% |
| James Madison | Sun Belt | 42.5% | 0.0% | 57.1% | 1.5% |
| Florida Atlantic | American | 82.9% | 0.3% | 17.1% | 1.5% |
| Minnesota | Big Ten | 1.7% | 0.0% | 73.2% | 1.5% |
| Nevada | Mountain West | 72.3% | 0.1% | 27.7% | 1.4% |
| Providence | Big East | 49.2% | 0.1% | 50.6% | 1.4% |
| Seton Hall | Big East | 33.5% | 0.0% | 64.1% | 1.3% |
| Texas A&M | SEC | 54.6% | 0.1% | 45.1% | 1.3% |
| Princeton | Ivy League | 40.5% | 0.0% | 59.3% | 1.2% |
| Mississippi | SEC | 39.8% | 0.0% | 59.7% | 1.2% |
| Boise State | Mountain West | 75.1% | 0.1% | 24.9% | 1.1% |
| San Francisco | WCC | 11.6% | 0.0% | 56.1% | 1.0% |
| Saint Mary’s | WCC | 93.1% | 0.6% | 6.9% | 0.9% |
| UCF | Big 12 | 0.3% | 0.0% | 50.7% | 0.9% |
| LSU | SEC | 1.9% | 0.0% | 68.9% | 0.8% |
| Kansas State | Big 12 | 4.8% | 0.0% | 63.1% | 0.8% |
| Bradley | Missouri Valley | 18.6% | 0.0% | 63.9% | 0.8% |
| Michigan State | Big Ten | 94.7% | 0.9% | 5.3% | 0.8% |
| Syracuse | ACC | 8.1% | 0.0% | 83.7% | 0.8% |
| Richmond | Atlantic 10 | 14.2% | 0.0% | 73.4% | 0.8% |
| Northwestern | Big Ten | 79.3% | 0.1% | 20.7% | 0.7% |
| Grand Canyon | WAC | 74.4% | 0.0% | 25.6% | 0.7% |
| Virginia | ACC | 62.6% | 0.0% | 37.4% | 0.7% |
| NC State | ACC | 2.4% | 0.0% | 49.9% | 0.7% |
| Nebraska | Big Ten | 85.2% | 0.2% | 14.8% | 0.7% |
| Georgia | SEC | 0.8% | 0.0% | 49.1% | 0.6% |
| Mississippi State | SEC | 88.0% | 0.3% | 12.0% | 0.6% |
| Memphis | American | 8.7% | 0.0% | 69.9% | 0.6% |
| Samford | SoCon | 42.2% | 0.0% | 49.6% | 0.4% |
| Florida State | ACC | 2.7% | 0.0% | 44.7% | 0.4% |
| George Mason | Atlantic 10 | 6.9% | 0.0% | 53.0% | 0.4% |
| Kentucky | SEC | 96.2% | 0.8% | 3.8% | 0.4% |
| VCU | Atlantic 10 | 9.6% | 0.0% | 49.4% | 0.3% |
| Appalachian State | Sun Belt | 28.7% | 0.0% | 51.2% | 0.3% |
| Boston College | ACC | 0.7% | 0.0% | 28.3% | 0.3% |
| Rutgers | Big Ten | 1.0% | 0.0% | 33.4% | 0.3% |
| UMass | Atlantic 10 | 8.2% | 0.0% | 28.5% | 0.3% |
| North Texas | American | 9.3% | 0.0% | 19.2% | 0.2% |
| Colorado State | Mountain West | 96.9% | 0.5% | 3.1% | 0.2% |
| Miami (FL) | ACC | 0.7% | 0.0% | 27.7% | 0.2% |
| UNLV | Mountain West | 8.1% | 0.0% | 26.5% | 0.2% |
| Yale | Ivy League | 31.6% | 0.0% | 30.0% | 0.2% |
| South Carolina | SEC | 92.3% | 0.1% | 7.7% | 0.2% |
| South Florida | American | 7.8% | 0.0% | 36.7% | 0.2% |
| New Mexico | Mountain West | 98.3% | 0.5% | 1.7% | 0.2% |
| McNeese | Southland | 83.3% | 0.0% | 15.2% | 0.1% |
| Texas Tech | Big 12 | 98.4% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| St. Bonaventure | Atlantic 10 | 6.2% | 0.0% | 21.7% | 0.1% |
| Cornell | Ivy League | 22.7% | 0.0% | 27.6% | 0.1% |
| Penn State | Big Ten | 0.5% | 0.0% | 6.7% | 0.1% |
| Arkansas | SEC | 0.1% | 0.0% | 6.6% | 0.1% |
| Loyola (IL) | Atlantic 10 | 7.3% | 0.0% | 25.5% | 0.1% |
| Duquesne | Atlantic 10 | 3.6% | 0.0% | 16.9% | 0.1% |
| UC Irvine | Big West | 56.6% | 0.0% | 11.5% | 0.1% |
| Louisiana Tech | Conference USA | 41.9% | 0.0% | 2.6% | 0.0% |
| Florida | SEC | 99.4% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Washington State | Pac-12 | 99.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Charlotte | American | 6.7% | 0.0% | 9.1% | 0.0% |
| UCLA | Pac-12 | 2.2% | 0.0% | 5.7% | 0.0% |
| Utah State | Mountain West | 99.2% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Indiana | Big Ten | 0.2% | 0.0% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| USC | Pac-12 | 0.6% | 0.0% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| Saint Joseph’s | Atlantic 10 | 2.9% | 0.0% | 3.5% | 0.0% |
| Stanford | Pac-12 | 1.0% | 0.0% | 2.1% | 0.0% |
| Missouri | SEC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Michigan | Big Ten | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| BYU | Big 12 | 100.0% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Illinois | Big Ten | 100.0% | 2.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| UAB | American | 2.7% | 0.0% | 3.9% | 0.0% |
| Akron | MAC | 40.5% | 0.0% | 1.8% | 0.0% |
| Oklahoma State | Big 12 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 1.7% | 0.0% |
| Davidson | Atlantic 10 | 2.5% | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| UNC Wilmington | CAA | 26.5% | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Vermont | America East | 57.8% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Cal | Pac-12 | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Santa Clara | WCC | 3.6% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Georgetown | Big East | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Clemson | ACC | 99.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| College of Charleston | CAA | 20.7% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Tarleton | WAC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Georgia Tech | ACC | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Southern Illinois | Missouri Valley | 6.7% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Arizona State | Pac-12 | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Toledo | MAC | 24.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| West Virginia | Big 12 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dayton | Atlantic 10 | 100.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tulane | American | 1.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| UNC Greensboro | SoCon | 13.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Northern Iowa | Missouri Valley | 3.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Duke | ACC | 100.0% | 4.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| North Carolina | ACC | 100.0% | 3.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Houston | Big 12 | 100.0% | 18.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Iowa State | Big 12 | 100.0% | 3.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kansas | Big 12 | 100.0% | 1.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Baylor | Big 12 | 100.0% | 1.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Creighton | Big East | 100.0% | 2.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marquette | Big East | 100.0% | 1.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| UConn | Big East | 100.0% | 9.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Purdue | Big Ten | 100.0% | 13.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wisconsin | Big Ten | 100.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| San Diego State | Mountain West | 100.0% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Arizona | Pac-12 | 100.0% | 8.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Auburn | SEC | 100.0% | 5.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tennessee | SEC | 100.0% | 5.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alabama | SEC | 100.0% | 5.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Colgate | Patriot League | 67.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Morehead State | Ohio Valley | 54.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Merrimack | NEC | 53.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| High Point | Big South | 50.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| South Dakota State | Summit League | 37.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Norfolk State | MEAC | 32.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eastern Kentucky | ASUN | 31.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Oakland | Horizon League | 30.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Central Connecticut State | NEC | 30.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Southern | SWAC | 30.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Weber State | Big Sky | 28.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eastern Washington | Big Sky | 26.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Youngstown State | Horizon League | 24.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| North Dakota | Summit League | 23.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| North Carolina Central | MEAC | 22.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lipscomb | ASUN | 21.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Liberty | Conference USA | 20.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Fairfield | MAAC | 19.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| UMass Lowell | America East | 18.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Montana | Big Sky | 18.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Howard | MEAC | 16.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| UNC Asheville | Big South | 16.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Quinnipiac | MAAC | 16.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Iona | MAAC | 16.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Seattle | WAC | 16.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Little Rock | Ohio Valley | 16.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Long Beach State | Big West | 15.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| UT Martin | Ohio Valley | 15.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Western Kentucky | Conference USA | 15.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Drexel | CAA | 15.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Texas Southern | SWAC | 15.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stetson | ASUN | 14.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chattanooga | SoCon | 14.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hofstra | CAA | 14.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bryant | America East | 13.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wright State | Horizon League | 13.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marist | MAAC | 13.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grambling State | SWAC | 13.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jackson State | SWAC | 12.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Northern Colorado | Big Sky | 12.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Western Carolina | SoCon | 12.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| South Carolina State | MEAC | 11.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ohio | MAC | 11.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Delaware State | MEAC | 11.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Austin Peay | ASUN | 11.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| North Florida | ASUN | 11.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Winthrop | Big South | 11.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Saint Peter’s | MAAC | 11.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alcorn State | SWAC | 10.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Green Bay | Horizon League | 10.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sam Houston State | Conference USA | 10.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| UC Davis | Big West | 10.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Towson | CAA | 9.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| North Dakota State | Summit League | 9.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Furman | SoCon | 9.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Troy | Sun Belt | 9.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kent State | MAC | 9.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Niagara | MAAC | 9.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Louisiana | Sun Belt | 9.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lehigh | Patriot League | 8.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kansas City | Summit League | 8.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Texas A&M-Corpus Christi | Southland | 8.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alabama State | SWAC | 8.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sacred Heart | NEC | 8.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Omaha | Summit League | 8.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Western Illinois | Ohio Valley | 7.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lafayette | Patriot League | 7.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Denver | Summit League | 7.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Longwood | Big South | 7.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Delaware | CAA | 7.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Northern Kentucky | Horizon League | 6.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hawaii | Big West | 6.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mount St. Mary’s | MAAC | 6.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gardner-Webb | Big South | 6.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| American | Patriot League | 6.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jacksonville State | Conference USA | 6.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Purdue Fort Wayne | Horizon League | 5.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Arkansas State | Sun Belt | 5.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rider | MAAC | 5.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| UT Arlington | WAC | 5.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bethune-Cookman | SWAC | 5.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| New Hampshire | America East | 5.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Portland State | Big Sky | 5.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cleveland State | Horizon League | 5.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Oral Roberts | Summit League | 5.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| UC Santa Barbara | Big West | 5.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lamar | Southland | 5.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Central Michigan | MAC | 4.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Boston University | Patriot League | 4.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| North Alabama | ASUN | 4.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wagner | NEC | 4.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Montana State | Big Sky | 4.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bowling Green State | MAC | 4.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Radford | Big South | 3.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Utah Valley | WAC | 3.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| UTEP | Conference USA | 3.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bucknell | Patriot League | 3.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Columbia | Ivy League | 3.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wofford | SoCon | 3.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Morgan State | MEAC | 3.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stephen F. Austin | WAC | 3.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Idaho State | Big Sky | 3.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Monmouth | CAA | 2.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| SIU Edwardsville | Ohio Valley | 2.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Miami (OH) | MAC | 2.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Belmont | Missouri Valley | 2.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Murray State | Missouri Valley | 2.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tennessee State | Ohio Valley | 2.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Fairleigh Dickinson | NEC | 2.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kennesaw State | ASUN | 2.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Milwaukee | Horizon League | 2.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| East Tennessee State | SoCon | 2.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maine | America East | 2.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Harvard | Ivy League | 2.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| UC Riverside | Big West | 2.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Canisius | MAAC | 2.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stony Brook | CAA | 2.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alabama A&M | SWAC | 2.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| California Baptist | WAC | 2.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Presbyterian | Big South | 2.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cal State Northridge | Big West | 1.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholls | Southland | 1.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maryland Eastern Shore | MEAC | 1.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Prairie View A&M | SWAC | 1.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Florida Gulf Coast | ASUN | 1.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Arkansas-Pine Bluff | SWAC | 1.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ball State | MAC | 1.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mercer | SoCon | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Georgia State | Sun Belt | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Southeastern Louisiana | Southland | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Northern Arizona | Big Sky | 1.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Northeastern | CAA | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cal State Fullerton | Big West | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| New Mexico State | Conference USA | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| South Alabama | Sun Belt | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Missouri State | Missouri Valley | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Albany | America East | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| East Carolina | American | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| FIU | Conference USA | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| USC Upstate | Big South | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| LIU | NEC | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Western Michigan | MAC | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Middle Tennessee | Conference USA | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Binghamton | America East | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Illinois State | Missouri Valley | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eastern Illinois | Ohio Valley | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| South Dakota | Summit League | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Southern Miss | Sun Belt | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Navy | Patriot League | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marshall | Sun Belt | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| The Citadel | SoCon | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Idaho | Big Sky | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charleston Southern | Big South | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wichita State | American | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Army | Patriot League | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jacksonville | ASUN | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Texas State | Sun Belt | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Saint Francis | NEC | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| UMBC | America East | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Evansville | Missouri Valley | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cal State Bakersfield | Big West | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Coppin State | MEAC | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Abilene Christian | WAC | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rice | American | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brown | Ivy League | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| UIC | Missouri Valley | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tulsa | American | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Robert Morris | Horizon League | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Campbell | CAA | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Loyola (MD) | Patriot League | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Northwestern State | Southland | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Fordham | Atlantic 10 | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Manhattan | MAAC | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elon | CAA | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rhode Island | Atlantic 10 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Holy Cross | Patriot League | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Loyola Marymount | WCC | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Old Dominion | Sun Belt | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Louisiana Monroe | Sun Belt | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wyoming | Mountain West | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| San Diego | WCC | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sacramento State | Big Sky | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Georgia Southern | Sun Belt | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Notre Dame | ACC | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Temple | American | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| George Washington | Atlantic 10 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Pepperdine | WCC | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| La Salle | Atlantic 10 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Central Arkansas | ASUN | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Penn | Ivy League | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tennessee Tech | Ohio Valley | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Southern Utah | WAC | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| NJIT | America East | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Saint Louis | Atlantic 10 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Fresno State | Mountain West | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William & Mary | CAA | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Air Force | Mountain West | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stonehill | NEC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Oregon State | Pac-12 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Incarnate Word | Southland | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Valparaiso | Missouri Valley | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| VMI | SoCon | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Houston Christian | Southland | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Coastal Carolina | Sun Belt | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Louisville | ACC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| UTSA | American | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hampton | CAA | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Siena | MAAC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Portland | WCC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bellarmine | ASUN | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Queens | ASUN | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| DePaul | Big East | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| UC San Diego | Big West | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cal Poly | Big West | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| North Carolina A&T | CAA | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| IUPUI | Horizon League | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Detroit Mercy | Horizon League | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chicago State | Independent | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dartmouth | Ivy League | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Buffalo | MAC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eastern Michigan | MAC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Northern Illinois | MAC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| San Jose State | Mountain West | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Le Moyne | NEC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lindenwood | Ohio Valley | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Southern Indiana | Ohio Valley | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Southeast Missouri State | Ohio Valley | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Vanderbilt | SEC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| New Orleans | Southland | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Texas A&M-Commerce | Southland | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| St. Thomas | Summit League | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Florida A&M | SWAC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mississippi Valley State | SWAC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Utah Tech | WAC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| UT Rio Grande Valley | WAC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Pacific | WCC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
