It was not a small Friday night.
We’ll get to the mechanics of all of this down below, but after Dayton’s win in Richmond and Colorado State’s in Boise, our NIT Bracketology is a little shaken up. The short version is that Dayton’s looking at a home game, George Mason and Boise State are on the road, and Colorado State’s at least momentarily welcoming somebody to Fort Collins. The long version is…
Moving Up: Dayton, Colorado State, Wake Forest, SMU
The best rivalries are sometimes the newest, and while Dayton vs. VCU isn’t new, it’s at least newer. It arose organically. These are arguably the two best programs in the Atlantic 10. Practically speaking, last night helped Dayton in that it secured them an A-10 double bye and it pushed their median final KNIT score past George Mason’s in our model’s simulations, which puts them in line for an NIT home game if VCU does win the A-10 Tournament. Emotionally speaking, last night helped Dayton in that it was a heck of a lot of fun. Dayton’s not all that likelier to win the A-10 Tournament than they were yesterday morning. They can beat VCU, but we already knew they were capable of that. The real good part, for the Flyers, is the win itself.
Colorado State had some bigger benefits in Boise, at least until they saw that New Mexico had won and they wouldn’t be getting a share of the Mountain West title. The Rams aren’t in line for an NIT exempt bid in our model’s simulations, but our model’s a lot lower on the Mountain West than the consensus is, as we talked about on Thursday. Right now, they’re getting a home game because our model sees fourteen SEC teams pulling off NCAA Tournament bids, leaving one exempt bid on the table and opening up a home game for an at-large invitee.
Wake didn’t play, and UC Irvine didn’t play, and SMU didn’t play, but as Boise fell, Wake and SMU both moved up onto the 1-line. Why? Wake Forest has a résumé that’s more palatable to the NCAA Tournament committee than the NIT committee, at least judging by the last few years. The Deacs are more accomplished than they are good. There’s a decent chance, at least in our model’s eyes, that they’re one of the NCAA Tournament’s First Four Out. The NIT defers to that list for 1-seeds. Yesterday, Wake wasn’t among that First Four Out. Today, they are. Part of this was Boise State falling past them. Part was UC Irvine dropping after our model overestimated how much some of the team sheet rating systems would like their Thursday night win.
Moving Down: Boise State, George Mason, UC Irvine
With the loss, Boise State drops all the way to a first round road game. This is largely a function of format—the Broncos have a better median NIT seeding score than eleven of the sixteen teams above them—but the format isn’t going anywhere. Boise State has work to do again, and that work will probably only matter to the NIT committee unless the Broncos win the Mountain West Tournament.
George Mason isn’t all that far behind Dayton in median final KNIT, and KNIT is wiggly in our model because of all those estimations around the ratings systems. But, that’s a tough result for GMU. Not only is Dayton ahead of them, but VCU’s almost definitely not getting an NCAA Tournament at-large bid.
Moving Out: High Point
This was expected, but High Point beat Gardner-Webb yesterday. Why did they still move out of the automatic bid in our bracket? Yesterday morning, they were slightly less than 50% likely to win the Big South Tournament. This morning, they’re slightly more than 50% likely to win the Big South Tournament.
Moving In: Minnesota
With High Point out, the Gophers are back. At least for 24 hours.
Model Talk: What’s the Deal With VCU?
Two quick follow-ups from the last few days before we talk VCU:
- We’re no longer all that worried about our model seeing no at-large path for Boise State. We’re still a little worried by it, but we expect the Broncos to fall out of Bracket Matrix entirely by the time all last night’s and today’s results are processed. If they’re still there on Tuesday, we’ll circle back, but for now, we’re more focused on whether our model’s underestimating San Diego State. (Though I’m sure Colorado State will at least briefly get some trendy treatment.)
- Our model’s AP Poll glitch (we mentioned it yesterday) ended up being inconsequential. The only team affected very much was VCU, and they lost a home game anyway, to a sub-bubble team. So, no concerns there.
VCU…
Most of this week, our model had VCU a 7-seed. Some of this—a seed line or two—was because of that AP Poll glitch, but most of it was because VCU’s team sheet is stronger in the areas which matter for NCAA Tournament seeding than it is in the areas which matter for selection. Now, they’re an 11-seed, and while they’re still ahead of some at-larges in our model’s seed list, they’re not ahead of any at-larges in our model’s selection list. Our model has the A-10 as a one-bid league.
I’ll be curious to see what Bracket Matrix thinks of the Rams come Monday and Tuesday. My guess is that it’ll agree with us, but most of the bracketologies on there are scoreboards of where things stand, not predictions of where they’ll end up. Ours is a prediction, and it still isn’t built to account for the reality that the NCAA Tournament committee makes most of its decisions before conference tournaments are over. With the A-10 Tournament running Friday through Sunday for the double-bye teams, it’s possible VCU could be voted into the field before they even play St. Bonaventure or whoever their quarterfinal opponent ends up being. Again, I don’t think this is going to happen, but if you’re hoping for a two-bid A-10, the best shot probably involves the committee ignoring VCU’s final loss.
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