NIT Bracketology

The NIT Bracketology below is our best current prediction of the final NIT bracket. It is predictive of where things will end up. It is not a reflection of where things currently stand.

We’re running our full model again. Here’s how it works.

If you notice any irregularities or have questions of any sort, please say something in the comments or on twitter: @joestunardi.

• Our model also gives NIT probabilities—who will play in it, how likely they are to win.
• We’re calculating daily NIT Leverages—the NIT importance of each individual game.
• If you want NCAA Tournament Bracketology, our model does that too.
• Regions are ordered as follows: first overall seed; fourth overall seed; second overall seed; third overall seed.
• A single asterisk designates an exempt bid, awarded to the best available teams from certain conferences. A double asterisk designates an automatic bid, awarded to certain conference champions who lose in their conference tournament.

Last Updated: Sunday, Mar. 16 – FINAL

If there are opt-outs announced more than a few minutes after the NCAA Tournament Selection Show, they may not be accounted for in our final bracketology. The sections below the bracket are listed in our model’s selection order, meaning we expect teams to be called in that order (with the sub-.500 teams on those lists possibly excluded).

Boise State Region

1. Boise State*

Utah Valley**

4. Georgetown*

Saint Joseph’s

3. UCF*

Georgia Tech

2. Wake Forest*

Arkansas State

UC Irvine Region

1. UC Irvine*

USC

4. Middle Tennessee*

Chattanooga**

3. Bradley*

Loyola Chicago

2. San Francisco*

Nevada

SMU Region

1. SMU*

Oklahoma State

4. LSU*

Santa Clara

3. North Texas*

TCU

2. George Mason*

Penn State

Nebraska Region

1. Nebraska*

Northern Colorado**

4. South Carolina*

St. Bonaventure

3. Stanford*

Oregon State

2. Dayton

Colorado

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Only Kind of Out

Our NIT Bracketology can only contain 32 teams—the number of teams in the NIT bracket. However, these next teams each have a median team sheet which ranks above our simulations’ median cut line. What this mostly reflects is uncertainty regarding NIT opt-outs. Historically, there have hardly ever been any NIT opt-outs. Maybe one a decade, if that. Last year, they became more common, seemingly mostly due to the transfer portal. So, our model accounts for them, estimating that a few of the teams in this NIT Bracketology may opt out, leaving these next in line to take their place.

• UAB
• Saint Louis

For more on how our NIT Bracketology addresses opt-outs, here’s how our model works. Here are the teams we’re currently holding out of our field:

• Northwestern (said they’re opting out of the Crown, NIT lumped in with that)
• Iowa (fired Fran McCaffery, didn’t name an interim)
• Pitt (announced they’re opting out)
• Kansas State (said they’re opting out of the Crown, NIT lumped in with that)
• Rutgers (announced they’re opting out)
• Minnesota (fired Ben Johnson, didn’t name an interim)
• Florida State (indicated their season is over post-Leonard Hamilton retirement)
• Virginia (dismissed Ron Sanchez, their interim)
• UNLV (fired Kevin Kruger, didn’t name an interim)

First Four Really Out

These are the real First Four Out, per our model.

• Northern Iowa
• Washington
• Notre Dame
• Cal State-Northridge

Next Four Really Out

These are the real Next Four Out, per our model.

• Washington State
• Samford
• Providence
• Furman

A Few More Options

In the event there’s a larger opt-out slew than anticipated or the committee doesn’t invite sub-.500 at-large teams, these teams could conceivably hear their number called:

• George Washington
• Belmont
• Florida Atlantic
• Jacksonville State
• North Alabama
• DePaul
• College of Charleston
• Cornell

NIT Bracketology and the College Basketball Crown

The College Basketball Crown is a new postseason tournament this year, with two guaranteed entrants from each of the Big East, Big Ten, and Big 12. Right now, these are the teams our model expects to receive Crown automatic bids, plus those who have indicated they’ll play in the Crown:

• Indiana
• Ohio State
• West Virginia
• Cincinnati
• Villanova
• Butler
• Utah
• Arizona State

The Crown has been billed as an NIT competitor, and it claims it will have 16 teams. However. It starts 15 full days after Selection Sunday, it starts seven days after the transfer portal opens, and it’s being played in Las Vegas, where attempts at filling arenas have mostly been unsuccessful (see: Pac-12 Tournament, 2023 NIT Final Four, most MTE’s). We don’t expect many teams to choose the Crown over the NIT, but it is a possible source of opt-outs beyond these six teams, something which is reflected in this NIT Bracketology. For more on that, look at the “Only Kind of Out” section above.

NIT Bracketology and Bid Thieves

Sometimes, our NIT Bracketology includes a team who’s also included in our NCAA Tournament Bracketology. What’s happening here is that our model is accounting for the likelihood of Bid Thieves. Our model doesn’t start the NIT Bracketology process by looking at the first team out of the NCAA Tournament. It starts by looking at the likeliest cut line between the NCAA Tournament and the NIT.

NIT Exempt Bids

Exempt bids are determined by conference. On Selection Sunday, the NIT committee will look at kenpom’s twelve top-rated conferences and then, conference by conference, award an exempt bid to the top-rated team who didn’t make the NCAA Tournament. To determine who the top-rated team is, the NIT committee will consult an average of kenpom, BPI, Torvik, WAB, BPI SOR, KPI, and NET—the seven formulas on the NCAA Team Sheets. The ACC and SEC will get two extra exempt bids in what’s believed to be a reward for their refusal to align with Fox Sports and commit two teams to the College Basketball Crown.

This setup sometimes creates a complicated situation for NIT Bracketology where one team is favored to win a conference tournament but that team is also likeliest to receive the conference’s exempt bid. What our NIT Bracketology does in these situations is, conference by conference, look at the likeliest number of teams to wind up in the NIT, and to then fill those slots in with the team or teams likeliest to wind up in the NIT.

NIT Automatic Bids

Automatic bids are awarded to any regular season conference champion who 1) is eligible for NCAA-sponsored postseason play, 2) didn’t win their conference tournament, 3) has an average ranking of 125 or better across those seven systems we listed above, and 4) didn’t already receive an exempt bid. We include these in our NIT Bracketology if they’re 50% likely or likelier, or if the “Only Kind of Out” section is empty. Sometimes, these wind up tied in with exempt bids, but all you should know there is that exempt bids supersede automatic bids, because exempt bids come with seeding and a home game.

NIT Bracketology Update Schedule

This is our final NIT Bracketology of the season. Thanks to all who’ve followed along. If you’re seeing this before the NIT tips off, go check our homepage for the NIT Bracket Challenge. We think it’s fun, and if you’ve read this far, we think you might think it’s fun too.

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