NIT Bracketology
We never did get our NIT Bracketology model fully launched this year. However. We went in today (Selection Sunday; March 15th, 2026) after games finished and checked what it’s saying ahead of tonight’s bracket announcement. For those wondering, here’s how the model works.
There will presumably be opt-outs we don’t know about, both ones that have and have not been announced. The relevant opt-outs or reported opt-outs I’ve seen are Virginia Tech and Belmont. Additionally, I’m assuming no postseason for Cincinnati, Arizona State, Syracuse, or Kansas State in the wake of their coaching changes.
On the Crown side, we believe both West Virginia and Seton Hall are legally obligated to play in the Crown (or are under that impression) and have accepted their invitation. That leaves four more legal obligation slots, plus two wild cards. I believe Indiana and Washington are legally obligated, with more Big Ten teams potentially legally obligated if those two decline. I believe Baylor is legally obligated, with another Big 12 team potentially legally obligated if Baylor declines. I believe either Creighton or Providence is legally obligated, with the other or potentially another Big East team potentially legally obligated if Creighton and/or Providence declines.
On the NCAA Tournament side, this list was made before the Selection Show. It was made under the guess that Santa Clara, SMU, Miami (OH) and Texas would all make the NCAA Tournament, in addition to those predicted to make it in 100% of Bracket Matrix brackets as of the last update I saw.
Based on all of that…
Automatic Bids (4)
- Yale
- Stephen F. Austin
- UNC Wilmington
- Liberty
Exempt Bids (16)
- Oklahoma (SEC #1)
- Stanford (ACC #1)
- Auburn (SEC #2)
- San Diego State (MWC)
- Tulsa (American)
- Florida State (ACC #2)
- Oklahoma State (Big 12)
- Dayton (Atlantic 10)
- Cal (ACC #3)
- USC (Big Ten)
- Mississippi (SEC #3)
- Butler (Big East)
- Utah Valley (WAC)
- Illinois State (MVC)
- UC Irvine (Big West)
- Seattle (WCC)
At-Large Bids (12)
- New Mexico
- Boise State
- Wake Forest
- Grand Canyon
- Nevada
- Northwestern
- Colorado
- Wichita State
- LSU
- Minnesota
- Providence
- Colorado State
Potential Invitees (??)
- George Mason
- Georgetown
- Notre Dame
- Xavier
- DePaul
- Wyoming
- Marquette
- George Washington
- Mississippi State
- Saint Joseph’s
- Pitt
- Oregon
- UNLV
- South Carolina
- Murray State
- Sam Houston State
- Davidson
- Bradley
- St. Thomas
- UAB
- Rutgers
- Kent State
- Maryland
- UIC
- UC San Diego
- Pacific
- San Francisco
- Duquesne
- Florida Atlantic
- Winthrop
- Navy
- North Texas
- Utah
- Penn State
- William & Mary
**
Solid NIT field-
1. Auto-bids for regular season conference champions need to comeback.
2. 4-8 more P5 teams from Crown should be in NIT.
3. Any NCAA team below .500 shouldn’t be allowed in NIT.
I could understand why a team like Belmont would decline, though.
It’s not good for March Madness to have two separate conflicting consolation tournaments- NIT and Crown (in addition to the cancelled low major CBI at Daytona Beach)
FOX Sports should work together with NIT/ESPN on the semi-finals/finals of the NIT.
Put some D2 postseason tournament games on TV instead of Crown.
North Alabama should get an at large NIT bid. Tied regular season with Lipscomb who beat them in the ASUN Tourney. As long as I mention the ASUN, an oddity, North Florida, a .500 team in the ASUN beat a NCAA qualifier (SIU-E) on the road and also beat an projected NIT qualifier on their home court (South Carolina). They also beat Georgia Tech too. But couldn’t get ahead in their own conference.