Our Gelo model assigns every NHL team a power rating which can be used to calculate single-game probabilities. Through those probabilities, we simulate the remainder of the playoffs 10,000 times to get our overall playoff probabilities.

Gelo’s only inputs are the score of every NHL game and preseason odds on team point totals. For more information on how Gelo works, read this from 2022: How Our NHL Gelo Model Works. The only difference this year is that we aren’t publishing Ogelo and Dgelo right now. We need to work on those a little before we bring those back.

Last Updated: Final Ratings, 2023–24 Season

Stanley Cup Playoff Probabilities

Team	Gelo	Ogelo	Dgelo
Florida Panthers	3.15	3.34	3.04
Carolina Hurricanes	3.11	2.92	2.66
New York Rangers	3.11	3.02	2.76
Edmonton Oilers	3.11	3.56	3.30
Dallas Stars	3.05	2.99	2.79
Colorado Avalanche	3.04	3.42	3.23
Winnipeg Jets	2.96	2.96	2.85
Boston Bruins	2.96	2.77	2.66
Toronto Maple Leafs	2.94	3.45	3.36
Vancouver Canucks	2.94	3.07	2.98
Tampa Bay Lightning	2.92	3.29	3.23
Nashville Predators	2.91	2.91	2.84
Vegas Golden Knights	2.91	3.00	2.94
Buffalo Sabres	2.90	3.21	3.15
New York Islanders	2.87	2.80	2.78
St. Louis Blues	2.86	3.14	3.13
Detroit Red Wings	2.85	3.12	3.12
Pittsburgh Penguins	2.84	3.14	3.15
Los Angeles Kings	2.84	2.76	2.77
Ottawa Senators	2.82	3.18	3.21
Minnesota Wild	2.80	2.94	2.98
Washington Capitals	2.80	3.06	3.12
Arizona Coyotes	2.78	3.12	3.18
Calgary Flames	2.76	3.01	3.09
New Jersey Devils	2.75	3.18	3.27
Seattle Kraken	2.72	2.86	2.99
Philadelphia Flyers	2.70	2.85	3.01
Montreal Canadiens	2.66	2.89	3.08
Columbus Blue Jackets	2.63	3.22	3.44
Anaheim Ducks	2.53	2.77	3.09
Chicago Blackhawks	2.51	2.88	3.21
San Jose Sharks	2.38	2.94	3.41