Two big things happened yesterday that are relevant to a potential Cubs trade of Kris Bryant (no, we’re not talking any more about the loss, I don’t have anything interesting to say): Nelson Cruz was traded, and Kris Bryant pinch hit.
The significance of Bryant pinch hitting is large and small. It’s large, because it shows he’s not IL-worthy, and it’s small, because it didn’t tell us he’s at full health. This is more relevant to us as fans than to those inside the league—the Cubs won’t be able to get away with trading damaged goods, they aren’t trying to trade damaged goods, trade partners will probably have a lot of information, we just don’t know whether Bryant is, right now, fully healthy or semi-healthy or not-at-all-healthy, and every appearance of his helps inform us.
Similarly, the Cruz trade tells us something, but it doesn’t tell us everything. Cruz is not Bryant. But he’s similar.
Cruz is projected, by FanGraphs’s depth charts system, to put up 1.3 fWAR the rest of the year, which is identical to Bryant’s projection. He can’t play the variety of positions Bryant can play, and the Rays’ needs are different than those of, say, the Mets, but at the same time, the Rays don’t have a DH-only guy as it stands (Austin Meadows has split time between designated hitting and playing left field), so while Cruz doesn’t bring any versatility himself, he doesn’t constrict the Rays much defensively, and the Rays evidently made the best offer for the slugger, which says something about Cruz’s overall market. In other words, the return for Cruz is probably comparable to the return the Cubs can expect for Bryant, even if the Cubs can maybe expect a little bit more thanks to Bryant’s versatility and the Cubs’ willingness to eat some money.
So what did Cruz yield?
Two 45 FV pitchers.
For context, a 45 FV prospect currently sits, in FanGraphs’s rankings, between 161st and 300th in the overall rankings. These aren’t top-100 guys, but they’re close to the best you can get without getting into the top 100. FanGraphs’s team farm system rankings values pitchers with this rating at $4M apiece, implying the Twins got $8M worth of value in exchange for 1.3 WAR and some money (the minor league pitcher the Twins sent isn’t much of a prospect, and while the Rays might like him, I’m assuming he was more useful as an innings-filler than as a meaningful contribution to the deal).
For some added context, $8M of value could also get you a 45+ FV position player in that FanGraphs dichotomy (the 45+ FV guys currently sit between 124th and 160th on those rankings). But aspirations of pulling in Ronny Mauricio, a 55 FV guy who FanGraphs ranks as the 31st-best prospect in baseball, seem ambitious. A 55 FV position player is worth $46M in that dichotomy. The difference between trying to sign Kris Bryant after he plays for you for two months and trying to sign Kris Bryant on the open market can’t be worth the equivalent of 38 million dollars.
Of course, this is all going off of the FanGraphs system, which may not align perfectly with the Cubs’ and Mets’ and Twins’ and Rays’ and everyone else’s evaluations of what’s going on. But it also can’t be that far off. FanGraphs is pretty good at this stuff.
If the Cubs are just getting a 45+ FV hitter, then, or two 45 FV pitchers, or two 40+ FV hitters, or sixteen 35+ FV hitters and pitchers (those are valued at $500k apiece), is it worth it to trade Bryant?
Probably.
With the benefit of these last two months of information, our best estimate of where Kris Bryant is at as a player is that he’s probably going to be in the 3.0-4.5 fWAR range next year, after which he’ll begin to decline by half a WAR a year. His value does increase thanks to the versatility, but again, I’m skeptical of how much that is, and even if you say it’s worth 1.0 WAR a year, you have to jump through a lot of hoops to get to a $200M contract at the $8M/WAR valuation, even having the contract go seven years. My impression is that someone will pay Kris Bryant at least $200M. I’m not sure it should be the Cubs. Maybe I’ll be proven wrong, but it’s been four years since Bryant exceeded 5.0 fWAR. He averaged seven WAR per year over the first three years of his career, but he hasn’t been that guy since, great player though he is.
If you’re not going to extend Kris Bryant, the question then becomes what you can get from a compensation pick (assuming he rejects the qualifying offer, which he would reject). Given the Cubs would be, by my understanding, getting that pick somewhere around 80th overall…you aren’t getting a ton of value. Only one guy with a 45 FV or higher was drafted later than 54th overall, and it was Bubba Chandler, a two-way player with signability concerns who was taken 72nd by the Pirates. You’re looking at a 40 FV player if it breaks your way with the bonus pool (assuming the system stays the same, which I think it will but don’t fully know it will with so far to go in the world of CBA negotiations).
In short, the Cubs probably should trade Bryant, and we should probably temper our expectations on Bryant’s return unless Jed Hoyer is going to unleash a steal upon us and upon the league.
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Around the Division:
The Brewers start a weekend set with the White Sox tonight. Freddy Peralta vs. Lucas Giolito. The Reds host the Cardinals. Tyler Mahle vs. Wade LeBlanc.
Standings, FanGraphs division championship probabilities:
1. Milwaukee: 56-41, 89.0%
2. Cincinnati: 49-47, 6.3%
3. St. Louis: 49-48, 3.2%
4. Cubs: 47-50, 1.5%
5. Pittsburgh: 36-60, 0.0%
Up Next:
Three with the Diamondbacks.
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Whom:
Cubs vs. Arizona
When:
1:20 PM Chicago Time
Where:
Wrigley Field
Weather:
Temperatures in the 80’s, wind blowing out at five to ten miles per hour.
Starting Pitchers:
Zach Davies vs. Zac Gallen
The Opponent:
Gallen last pitched on Saturday, also against the Cubs, and it went well. Starts going well are the expectation for that guy.
The Numbers:
The Cubs are -140 favorites, the Diamondbacks are at +130, that’s about a 56% win probability. Over/under’s at ten.
Cubs News:
Matt Duffy was activated today and Eric Sogard was DFA’d, giving the Cubs a week to try to trade him before the deadline. End of that saga, fun to have Duffy back.
The Cubs signed James Triantos, their second round pick, and he (a 40+ FV guy) becomes the Cubs’ 15th-ranked prospect by FanGraphs. This ends the immediately significant draft pick signings. No disasters.
Lastly, Kris Bryant is in today’s lineup.
Cubs Thoughts:
Bryant’s going to get moved for prospect just outside the top 100, right? That’s where this is going?
