We’ve got probabilities for the NCAA Tournament, updating every morning. These run mostly off of kenpom ratings. The only difference is that in our simulations, each winner’s kenpom rating adjusts in future rounds depending on their performance in completed games.

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Last updated: Sunday 3/29, 11:32 AM EDT

Team	NCAAT 1R	NCAAT 2R	NCAAT SS	NCAAT EE	NCAAT FF	NCAAT Champ	NCAAT Champions
Arizona	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	58%	33%
Michigan	100%	100%	100%	100%	74%	35%	20%
Illinois	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	48%	20%
Duke	100%	100%	100%	100%	71%	41%	20%
UConn	100%	100%	100%	100%	29%	11%	3%
Tennessee	100%	100%	100%	100%	26%	7%	3%
Purdue	100%	100%	100%	100%	0%	0%	0%
Iowa	100%	100%	100%	100%	0%	0%	0%
Iowa State	100%	100%	100%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Michigan State	100%	100%	100%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Alabama	100%	100%	100%	0%	0%	0%	0%
St. John’s	100%	100%	100%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Houston	100%	100%	100%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Nebraska	100%	100%	100%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Arkansas	100%	100%	100%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Texas	100%	100%	100%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Florida	100%	100%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Virginia	100%	100%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Texas Tech	100%	100%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Kansas	100%	100%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Miami (FL)	100%	100%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
UCLA	100%	100%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Kentucky	100%	100%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Utah State	100%	100%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Gonzaga	100%	100%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Vanderbilt	100%	100%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Louisville	100%	100%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
VCU	100%	100%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Saint Louis	100%	100%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Texas A&M	100%	100%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
TCU	100%	100%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
High Point	100%	100%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Santa Clara	100%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Clemson	100%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Villanova	100%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Missouri	100%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
UCF	100%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Northern Iowa	100%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Akron	100%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Hofstra	100%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Miami (OH)	100%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
California Baptist	100%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Queens	100%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Wright State	100%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Furman	100%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Tennessee State	100%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
LIU	100%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Prairie View A&M	100%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Wisconsin	100%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
BYU	100%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Saint Mary’s	100%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Ohio State	100%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
North Carolina	100%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Georgia	100%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
South Florida	100%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
McNeese	100%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Hawaii	100%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
North Dakota State	100%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Penn	100%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Kennesaw State	100%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Troy	100%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Idaho	100%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Siena	100%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Howard	100%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
SMU	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Lehigh	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
NC State	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
UMBC	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

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