All Movelor’s Week 2 predictions are now live at this link.
What is Movelor?
It’s our college football model’s rating system, one which measures the gap in quality between every FBS and FCS team. Last season, it was 0.8 points less accurate on a per-game basis than the betting market’s closing spread.
Week 0 and Week 1 went worse, missing by 1.7 points more, on average, than the closing spread. We make no secret of Movelor’s early-season struggles, sometimes even fading our system with our own wallets in these first few weeks. We’ll keep working on those offseason adjustments for next year. In the meantime, the system will continue to converge on reality over these next couple weeks. By October, it should hold its own against just about anyone.
Here’s where Movelor has this week’s biggest, most consequential, and most interesting action:
Big Games
- Michigan by 4.5 over Texas
- Iowa by 4.3 over Iowa State
- Kansas by 1.9 over Illinois
- Nebraska by 8.0 over Colorado
- Tennessee by 13.3 over NC State
- Oregon by 26.9 over Boise State
Playoff Hopefuls
- Kansas State by 10.1 over Tulane
- Oklahoma State by 13.5 over Arkansas
- Penn State by 37.1 over Bowling Green
- Memphis by 4.4 over Troy
- Georgia by 68.4 over Tennessee Tech
- Notre Dame by 40.3 over Northern Illinois
- Toledo by 30.8 over UMass
- Utah by 19.5 over Baylor
- UTSA by 8.1 over Texas State
- Mississippi by 42.9 over Middle Tennessee
- James Madison by 31.2 over Gardner-Webb
- Miami by 39.2 over Florida A&M
- Alabama by 39.9 over USF
- Missouri by 36.4 over Buffalo
- Ohio State by 41.8 over Western Michigan
- Clemson by 18.9 over Appalachian State
- Liberty by 5.4 over New Mexico State
- USC by 28.0 over Utah State
Interesting Games
- SMU by 7.3 over BYU
- Northwestern by 1.8 over Duke
- Georgia Tech by 8.0 over Syracuse
- Wyoming by 6.7 over Idaho
- Maryland by 17.2 over Michigan State
- Kentucky by 9.1 over South Carolina
- Virginia Tech by 15.8 over Marshall
- Western Kentucky by 12.8 over Eastern Kentucky
- Air Force by 1.0 over San Jose State
- UTEP by 4.4 over Southern Utah
- Washington State by 4.8 over Texas Tech
- Oregon State by 13.2 over San Diego State
- Mississippi State by 3.9 over Arizona State
Big Games – FCS
- Southern Illinois by 6.7 over Austin Peay
- South Dakota State by 25.8 over Incarnate Word
- Montana by 10.0 over North Dakota
Overall stats through 137 games:
- FBS vs. FBS: 71.8% correct winners; 15.3-point absolute average error margin
- All FBS: 88.0% correct winners; 13.7-point absolute average error margin
- FCS vs. FCS: 71.4% correct winners; 12.2-point absolute average error margin
- All Division I: 83.2% correct winners; 14.0-point absolute average error margin
