All Movelor’s Week 10 predictions are now live at this link.
What is Movelor?
It’s our college football model’s rating system, one which measures the gap in quality between every FBS and FCS team. Last season, it was 0.8 points less accurate on a per-game basis than the betting market’s closing spread.
How’s it doing this year?
It’s been worse this year (13.7-point average miss) than last year (12.9 points), but it’s mostly been lowering that first number as the weeks go on. This is generally what we expect—we expect accuracy to improve as the season goes on. The biggest thing we want to work on with Movelor in the future is how it reacts to the offseason and to early-season results.
Here’s what it’s got this week:
Big Games
- Mississippi by 0.5 over Georgia
- Alabama by 5.4 at LSU
- BYU by 5.3 at Utah
Playoff-Impacting Games
- Texas by 16.8 over Florida
- Miami (FL) by 9.6 at Georgia Tech
- Ohio State by 39.5 over Purdue
- Clemson by 5.1 at Virginia Tech
- Iowa State by 2.3 at Kansas
- Indiana by 6.4 over Michigan
- Tulane by 33.2 over Temple
- Oregon by 30.7 over Maryland
- Tennessee by 28.0 over Mississippi State
- Notre Dame by 30.1 over Florida State
- Boise State by 31.1 over Nevada
- Penn State by 12.4 over Washington
Interesting Games
- Iowa by 3.7 at UCLA
- Syracuse by 2.6 at Boston College
- Army by 4.0 at North Texas
- Texas Tech by 0.7 over Colorado
- South Carolina by 8.1 at Vanderbilt
- Louisiana by 13.3 over Arkansas State
- Arizona State by 1.9 over UCF
- Missouri by 1.6 over Oklahoma
- Pitt by 8.5 over Virginia
- UNLV by 12.7 at Hawaii
Top 25* FCS Matchups
- South Dakota State by 19.3 at North Dakota
- Montana by 6.5 over UC Davis
*Movelor’s Top 25, so the 25 best FCS teams right now.
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Highlights from Week 10:
- Movelor hit three different spreads perfectly, nailing Baylor by 3 over TCU, Central Connecticut State by 10 over Wagner, and South Dakota State by 46 over Murray State.
- Movelor’s biggest miss of the week came in the West Georgia/Lincoln game, where West Georgia is new to Division I this year and Lincoln is not a Division I team (or even in the NCAA, I don’t believe). In games between Division I teams, the biggest misses were a pair of 41-point errors: Tennessee Tech was only a 1-point Movelor favorite over Lindenwood, and UCF was only favored by 3 over Arizona.
- Movelor outperformed SP+ on the week by 0.2 points per game, and even came within 0.1 points of the closing spread. FPI had a strong week, though, besting Movelor by 0.4 points. On the season, SP+ and FPI are 1.0 and 1.1 points more accurate, respectively, than Movelor.
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Overall stats through 1,163 games:
- FBS vs. FBS: 68.2% correct winners; 13.7-point absolute average error margin
- All FBS: 73.3% correct winners; 13.5-point absolute average error margin
- FCS vs. FCS: 72.0% correct winners; 13.1-point absolute average error margin
- All Division I: 73.3% correct winners; 13.7-point absolute average error margin
