All Movelor’s Week 10 predictions are now live at this link.
What is Movelor?
It’s our college football model’s rating system, one which measures the gap in quality between every FBS and FCS team. Last season, it was 0.8 points less accurate on a per-game basis than the betting market’s closing spread.
How’s it doing this year?
It’s been worse this year (13.7-point average miss) than last year (12.9 points), but it’s been lowering that first number as the weeks go on. This is generally what we expect—we expect accuracy to improve as the season goes on. The biggest thing we want to work on with Movelor in the future is how it reacts to the offseason and to early-season results.
Here’s what it’s got this week:
Big Games
- Ohio State by 2.4 at Penn State
- South Carolina by 0.1 over Texas A&M
- SMU by 7.5 over Pitt
Playoff-Impacting Games
- Boise State by 22.3 over San Diego State
- Army by 23.4 over Air Force
- Miami (FL) by 13.6 over Duke
- Mississippi by 9.8 at Arkansas
- Georgia by 15.3 over Florida
- Indiana by 6.3 at Michigan State
- Kansas State by 16.2 at Houston
- Oregon by 12.2 at Michigan
- Iowa State by 12.2 over Texas Tech
- Clemson by 15.4 over Louisville
- Tennessee by 20.2 over Kentucky
Interesting Games
- Louisiana by 0.1 at Texas State
- Jacksonville State by 0.4 at Liberty
- Tulane by 20.5 at Charlotte
- Memphis by 7.2 at UTSA
- Illinois by 1.2 over Minnesota
- Virginia Tech by 8.3 at Syracuse
- Auburn by 11.5 over Vanderbilt
- Marshall by 10.7 over Louisiana Monroe
- Nebraska by 6.4 over UCLA
- Navy by 9.8 at Rice
- South Alabama by 11.2 over Georgia Southern
- USC by 1.4 at Washington
- Iowa by 5.0 over Wisconsin
- Colorado State by 2.7 at Nevada
- Baylor by 3.1 over TCU
Top 25* FCS Matchups
- Chattanooga by 1.2 at Western Carolina
- Northern Arizona by 3.8 over Weber State
*Movelor’s Top 25, so the 25 best FCS teams right now.
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Highlights from Week 9:
- Movelor hit two different spreads perfectly, both in the SWAC. Arkansas-Pine Bluff beat Mississippi Valley State by 14. Alabama State beat Alabama A&M by 8.
- Movelor’s biggest miss of the week came in the UNC/Virginia game, where UNC outperformed Movelor’s expectations by 34.5 points.
- SP+ and FPI were 0.8 and 1.4 points better than Movelor, respectively, on the week. On the season, Movelor’s still 1.1 points per game worse than SP+, with FPI widening the gap a little to 1.2.
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Overall stats through 1,055 games:
- FBS vs. FBS: 68.8% correct winners; 13.7-point absolute average error margin
- All FBS: 74.2% correct winners; 13.4-point absolute average error margin
- FCS vs. FCS: 71.9% correct winners; 13.1-point absolute average error margin
- All Division I: 73.8% correct winners; 13.7-point absolute average error margin
