All Movelor’s single-game predictions for the remainder of the season are now live at this link.
What is Movelor?
It’s our college football model’s rating system, one which measures the gap in quality between every FBS and FCS team. Last season, it was 0.8 points less accurate on a per-game basis than the betting market’s closing spread.
How’s it doing this year?
It’s been worse this year (13.3-point average miss) than last year (12.9 points), and we doubt that number will improve through bowl season, given the uncertain nature of bowl matchups. The biggest thing we want to work on with Movelor in the future is how it reacts to the offseason and to early-season results. Movelor performed well over the back half of the season, but its slow start was brutal.
Here’s what it’s got in the College Football Playoff, the FCS playoffs, and upcoming bowl games:
College Football Playoff
- Penn State by 14.2 over Boise State
- Texas by 9.6 over Arizona State
- Oregon by 0.6 over Ohio State
- Notre Dame by 4.6 over Georgia
FCS Playoffs
- North Dakota State by 1.3 over Montana State
Upcoming Bowl Games (Next Seven Days)
- UTSA by 5.9 over Coastal Carolina
- Fresno State by 8.6 over Northern Illinois
- USF by 1.0 over San Jose State
- Pitt by 10.0 over Toledo
- Kansas State by 4.3 over Rutgers
- Bowling Green by 8.3 over Arkansas State
- Oklahoma by 9.7 over Navy
- Georgia Tech by 4.7 over Vanderbilt
- Texas Tech by 0.6 over Arkansas
- Syracuse by 5.1 over Washington State
- USC by 1.1 over Texas A&M
- North Carolina by 7.0 over UConn
- Nebraska by 4.4 over Boston College
- TCU by 8.9 over Louisiana
- Miami (FL) by 5.8 over Iowa State
- Miami (OH) by 3.2 over Colorado State
- NC State by 8.8 over East Carolina
- Colorado by 6.2 over BYU
- Army by 12.8 over Louisiana Tech
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For those wondering how Movelor’s performance compares to ESPN’s FPI and SP+ systems, the records broke down as follows for FBS vs. FBS games in the 2024 regular season, including conference championship games but not including Army vs. Navy:
- FPI: 12.4-point average error margin, 71.5% correct winners
- SP+: 12.5-point average error margin, unknown correct winners
- Movelor: 13.3-point average error margin, 69.1% correct winners
Movelor was more accurate this year than Billingsley, the Massey Consensus, and some other prominent rating systems, but it was not as accurate as the best systems in the market. We’ll keep working on that.
