The Barking Crow

Movelor: Game Predictions, 2024

Movelor is The Barking Crow’s college football rating system. Below are Movelor’s predictions for this week’s games.

Last year, Movelor was roughly 0.8 points less accurate per game than the average closing spread in betting markets. This year, it’s been 1.4 points per game less accurate than the closing spread through 140 games.

Overall stats through Week 3:

  • FBS vs. FBS: 70.7% correct winners; 14.7-point absolute average error margin
  • All FBS: 81.3% correct winners; 13.8-point absolute average error margin
  • FCS vs. FCS: 68.2% correct winners; 13.1-point absolute average error margin
  • All Division I: 78.1% correct winners; 14.4-point absolute average error margin

Here’s how it all works. If you’re interested in more data from our model, including College Football Playoff probabilities, that can be found through this menu.

DateTeam 1T1 Win ProbTeam 2T2 Win ProbT2 Predicted Margin
9/21/2024USC11.0%Michigan89.0%13.6
9/21/2024Utah31.9%Oklahoma State68.1%4.9
9/21/2024Tennessee70.2%Oklahoma29.8%-5.6
9/21/2024Kansas State77.4%BYU22.6%-8.0
9/20/2024San Jose State11.6%Washington State88.4%13.3
9/21/2024Marshall0.1%Ohio State99.9%42.8
9/21/2024James Madison38.6%North Carolina61.4%3.0
9/21/2024NC State5.8%Clemson94.2%18.1
9/21/2024Memphis91.7%Navy8.3%-15.7
9/21/2024Kent State0.0%Penn State100.0%59.2
9/21/2024Georgia Tech26.3%Louisville73.7%6.7
9/21/2024Miami (OH)0.6%Notre Dame99.4%33.0
9/21/2024Vanderbilt1.4%Missouri98.6%27.9
9/21/2024East Carolina23.7%Liberty76.3%7.6
9/21/2024Toledo63.5%Western Kentucky36.5%-3.6
9/21/2024Miami (FL)85.9%USF14.1%-11.8
9/21/2024Georgia Southern0.2%Mississippi99.8%39.9
9/21/2024Louisiana Monroe0.0%Texas100.0%55.2
9/21/2024Portland State0.4%Boise State99.6%35.4
9/19/2024South Alabama39.2%Appalachian State60.8%2.9
9/20/2024Stanford15.3%Syracuse84.7%11.2
9/20/2024Illinois34.3%Nebraska65.7%4.2
9/21/2024Villanova3.6%Maryland96.4%21.4
9/21/2024Tulane72.8%Louisiana27.2%-6.4
9/21/2024Florida62.1%Mississippi State37.9%-3.2
9/21/2024Virginia37.8%Coastal Carolina62.2%3.2
9/21/2024Eastern Washington19.9%Nevada80.1%9.1
9/21/2024Youngstown State5.3%Pitt94.7%18.8
9/21/2024Arizona State19.2%Texas Tech80.8%9.4
9/21/2024Buffalo22.7%Northern Illinois77.3%8.0
9/21/2024Arkansas28.4%Auburn71.6%6.0
9/21/2024TCU43.0%SMU57.0%1.8
9/21/2024Monmouth38.7%FIU61.3%3.0
9/21/2024California19.0%Florida State81.0%9.5
9/21/2024Michigan State30.7%Boston College69.3%5.3
9/21/2024Northern Iowa42.0%Hawaii58.0%2.1
9/21/2024Yale44.3%Holy Cross55.7%1.5
9/21/2024Western Carolina5.6%Montana94.4%18.4
9/21/2024Furman54.5%William & Mary45.5%-1.2
9/21/2024Northern Arizona43.6%Incarnate Word56.4%1.7
9/21/2024Charlotte2.3%Indiana97.7%24.4
9/21/2024Rice15.4%Army84.6%11.1
9/21/2024WV Wesleyan4.7%Duquesne95.3%19.5
9/21/2024Ave Maria6.6%Dayton93.4%17.3
9/21/2024Princeton82.1%Lehigh17.9%-9.9
9/21/2024Rhode Island90.6%LIU9.4%-14.7
9/21/2024Lafayette82.8%Columbia17.2%-10.2
9/21/2024Stetson0.7%Harvard99.3%32.6
9/21/2024Houston47.2%Cincinnati52.8%0.7
9/21/2024Kansas35.5%West Virginia64.5%3.9
9/21/2024Ohio6.0%Kentucky94.0%17.9
9/21/2024Fordham8.0%Dartmouth92.0%15.9
9/21/2024Cornell17.7%Colgate82.3%10.0
9/21/2024Maine44.6%Merrimack55.4%1.4
9/21/2024Brown55.6%Georgetown44.4%-1.5
9/21/2024Sacred Heart43.7%Stonehill56.3%1.7
9/21/2024Ball State54.8%Central Michigan45.2%-1.3
9/21/2024Norfolk State18.9%VMI81.1%9.5
9/21/2024San Diego1.3%North Dakota98.7%28.2
9/21/2024Towson1.2%North Dakota State98.8%28.9
9/21/2024Drake1.1%South Dakota98.9%29.6
9/21/2024Arkansas State3.9%Iowa State96.1%20.9
9/21/2024Roosevelt21.9%Valparaiso78.1%8.3
9/21/2024St. Thomas45.1%Lindenwood54.9%1.3
9/21/2024Utah State74.0%Temple26.0%-6.8
9/21/2024Saint Francis (PA)2.4%Eastern Michigan97.6%24.0
9/21/2024Tennessee State15.5%Tennessee Tech84.5%11.0
9/21/2024Mercyhurst0.1%Montana State99.9%47.3
9/21/2024Bryant7.7%New Hampshire92.3%16.2
9/21/2024Clark Atlanta14.7%Bethune-Cookman85.3%11.5
9/21/2024Southern Miss17.8%Jacksonville State82.2%10.0
9/21/2024Rutgers38.8%Virginia Tech61.2%3.0
9/21/2024Central Connecticut State7.9%UMass92.1%16.0
9/21/2024Houston Christian0.3%UTSA99.7%38.0
9/21/2024UCLA7.1%LSU92.9%16.7
9/21/2024Mississippi Valley State0.8%Nicholls99.2%31.5
9/21/2024Howard65.9%Hampton34.1%-4.3
9/21/2024Robert Morris56.9%Wagner43.1%-1.8
9/21/2024Duke97.0%Middle Tennessee3.0%-22.6
9/21/2024Stony Brook6.3%Campbell93.7%17.6
9/21/2024Penn8.7%Delaware91.3%15.3
9/21/2024East Tennessee State10.7%Elon89.3%13.8
9/21/2024The Citadel1.3%Mercer98.7%28.4
9/21/2024Richmond98.8%Delaware State1.2%-28.9
9/21/2024Morehead State2.4%Eastern Kentucky97.6%24.1
9/21/2024Marist4.2%Bucknell95.8%20.3
9/21/2024Southern Utah74.5%Idaho State25.5%-7.0
9/21/2024UTEP34.2%Colorado State65.8%4.3
9/21/2024Weber State99.6%Northwestern State0.4%-36.2
9/21/2024Central Arkansas99.6%Arkansas-Pine Bluff0.4%-36.2
9/21/2024Sacramento State97.9%Texas A&M-Commerce2.1%-25.2
9/21/2024Missouri State52.1%UT Martin47.9%-0.5
9/21/2024South Dakota State98.7%Southeastern Louisiana1.3%-28.1
9/21/2024Southeast Missouri State10.3%Southern Illinois89.7%14.1
9/21/2024Eastern Illinois15.5%Illinois State84.5%11.1
9/21/2024Wyoming45.6%North Texas54.4%1.1
9/21/2024Tulsa48.4%Louisiana Tech51.6%0.4
9/21/2024New Mexico State37.9%Sam Houston62.1%3.2
9/21/2024Northwestern10.5%Washington89.5%14.0
9/21/2024Virginia Lynchburg1.2%Morgan State98.8%28.7
9/21/2024Jackson State65.0%Grambling State35.0%-4.0
9/21/2024Alabama A&M3.1%Austin Peay96.9%22.5
9/21/2024Southern44.4%Prairie View A&M55.6%1.5
9/21/2024North Carolina A&T8.9%North Carolina Central91.1%15.2
9/21/2024Tarleton77.4%North Alabama22.6%-8.0
9/21/2024Texas Southern10.8%Lamar89.2%13.8
9/21/2024Gardner-Webb97.5%Presbyterian2.5%-23.8
9/21/2024Florida A&M0.9%Troy99.1%30.3
9/21/2024Florida Atlantic52.5%UConn47.5%-0.7
9/21/2024Akron0.8%South Carolina99.2%31.5
9/21/2024Iowa57.0%Minnesota43.0%-1.8
9/21/2024Bowling Green State3.8%Texas A&M96.2%21.0
9/21/2024Northern Colorado18.2%Stephen F. Austin81.8%9.8
9/21/2024Baylor59.4%Colorado40.6%-2.5
9/21/2024Fresno State92.6%New Mexico7.4%-16.5
9/21/2024Purdue19.4%Oregon State80.6%9.3
9/21/2024Utah Tech2.8%UC Davis97.2%23.0
9/22/2024Idaho88.6%Abilene Christian11.4%-13.4
9/22/2024Alcorn State37.6%McNeese62.4%3.3

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Begin typing your search term above and press enter to search. Press ESC to cancel.