The Barking Crow

Movelor: Game Predictions, 2024

Movelor is The Barking Crow’s college football rating system. Below are Movelor’s predictions for this week’s games.

Last year, Movelor was roughly 0.8 points less accurate per game than the closing spread in betting markets. This year, it’s been 1.4 points worse than the closing spread per game through 510 games.

Overall stats through Week 10:

  • FBS vs. FBS: 68.2% correct winners; 13.7-point absolute average error margin
  • All FBS: 73.3% correct winners; 13.5-point absolute average error margin
  • FCS vs. FCS: 72.0% correct winners; 13.1-point absolute average error margin
  • All Division I: 73.3% correct winners; 13.7-point absolute average error margin

Here’s how it all works. If you’re interested in more data from our model, including College Football Playoff probabilities, that can be found through this menu.

DateTeam 1T1 Win ProbTeam 2T2 Win ProbT2 Predicted Margin
11/9/2024Georgia48.1%Mississippi51.9%0.5
11/9/2024Alabama69.6%LSU30.4%-5.4
11/9/2024BYU69.2%Utah30.8%-5.3
11/9/2024Florida7.0%Texas93.0%16.8
11/9/2024Miami (FL)81.3%Georgia Tech18.7%-9.6
11/9/2024Purdue0.2%Ohio State99.8%39.5
11/9/2024Clemson68.6%Virginia Tech31.4%-5.1
11/9/2024Iowa State58.8%Kansas41.2%-2.3
11/9/2024Michigan27.1%Indiana72.9%6.4
11/9/2024Temple0.6%Tulane99.4%33.2
11/9/2024Maryland0.9%Oregon99.1%30.7
11/9/2024Mississippi State1.3%Tennessee98.7%28.0
11/9/2024Florida State1.0%Notre Dame99.0%30.1
11/9/2024Nevada0.8%Boise State99.2%31.1
11/9/2024Washington13.0%Penn State87.0%12.4
11/8/2024Iowa64.0%UCLA36.0%-3.7
11/9/2024Syracuse59.9%Boston College40.1%-2.6
11/9/2024Army64.8%North Texas35.2%-4.0
11/9/2024Colorado47.2%Texas Tech52.8%0.7
11/9/2024South Carolina77.5%Vanderbilt22.5%-8.1
11/9/2024Arkansas State11.5%Louisiana88.5%13.3
11/9/2024UCF42.7%Arizona State57.3%1.9
11/9/2024Oklahoma43.8%Missouri56.2%1.6
11/9/2024Virginia21.4%Pitt78.6%8.5
11/9/2024UNLV87.5%Hawaii12.5%-12.7
11/9/2024South Dakota State95.1%North Dakota4.9%-19.3
11/9/2024UC Davis27.0%Montana73.0%6.5
11/5/2024Bowling Green State68.8%Central Michigan31.2%-5.2
11/5/2024Miami (OH)85.6%Ball State14.4%-11.6
11/6/2024Northern Illinois31.2%Western Michigan68.8%5.2
11/6/2024Ohio96.4%Kent State3.6%-21.4
11/7/2024Appalachian State53.2%Coastal Carolina46.8%-0.8
11/7/2024Florida Atlantic12.3%East Carolina87.7%12.8
11/8/2024California81.5%Wake Forest18.5%-9.6
11/8/2024Rice9.7%Memphis90.3%14.5
11/8/2024New Mexico35.4%San Diego State64.6%3.9
11/9/2024Minnesota74.9%Rutgers25.1%-7.1
11/9/2024Navy46.5%USF53.5%0.9
11/9/2024Texas State57.1%Louisiana Monroe42.9%-1.9
11/9/2024West Virginia53.7%Cincinnati46.3%-1.0
11/9/2024Liberty80.5%Middle Tennessee19.5%-9.2
11/9/2024UConn50.7%UAB49.3%-0.2
11/9/2024Marshall83.8%Southern Miss16.2%-10.7
11/9/2024Duke56.7%NC State43.3%-1.8
11/9/2024Georgia State4.2%James Madison95.8%20.4
11/9/2024San Jose State27.0%Oregon State73.0%6.5
11/9/2024Kennesaw State27.1%UTEP72.9%6.4
11/9/2024Jacksonville State91.3%Louisiana Tech8.7%-15.3
11/9/2024Western Kentucky93.2%New Mexico State6.8%-17.1
11/9/2024Oklahoma State37.2%TCU62.8%3.4
11/9/2024Fresno State77.3%Air Force22.7%-8.0
11/9/2024Utah State1.8%Washington State98.2%26.0
11/8/2024Dartmouth74.1%Princeton25.9%-6.9
11/9/2024Columbia13.2%Harvard86.8%12.3
11/9/2024Western Carolina52.4%East Tennessee State47.6%-0.6
11/9/2024Brown7.5%Yale92.5%16.4
11/9/2024Lehigh11.4%Holy Cross88.6%13.4
11/9/2024Lincoln University (CA)14.5%Mercyhurst85.5%11.5
11/9/2024LIU63.7%Sacred Heart36.3%-3.7
11/9/2024Morgan State93.4%Delaware State6.6%-17.2
11/9/2024Robert Morris34.2%Duquesne65.8%4.3
11/9/2024San Diego49.0%Dayton51.0%0.3
11/9/2024Elon24.4%William & Mary75.6%7.4
11/9/2024Monmouth17.7%New Hampshire82.3%10.0
11/9/2024North Carolina A&T0.5%Villanova99.5%34.1
11/9/2024Rhode Island18.2%Delaware81.8%9.8
11/9/2024Albany49.3%Stony Brook50.7%0.2
11/9/2024Bryant24.3%Maine75.7%7.4
11/9/2024Central Connecticut State83.2%Stonehill16.8%-10.4
11/9/2024Fordham34.1%Bucknell65.9%4.3
11/9/2024Hampton19.3%Towson80.7%9.3
11/9/2024Lafayette56.3%Colgate43.7%-1.6
11/9/2024Marist32.7%Stetson67.3%4.7
11/9/2024Morehead State31.7%Davidson68.3%5.0
11/9/2024Penn60.8%Cornell39.2%-2.9
11/9/2024Youngstown State45.2%Southern Illinois54.8%1.3
11/9/2024Mercer95.1%VMI4.9%-19.4
11/9/2024Eastern Illinois11.5%Gardner-Webb88.5%13.3
11/9/2024Chattanooga87.8%The Citadel12.2%-12.9
11/9/2024Indiana State1.1%South Dakota98.9%29.1
11/9/2024Missouri State96.9%Murray State3.1%-22.4
11/9/2024Tarleton87.2%West Georgia12.8%-12.5
11/9/2024UT Martin94.8%Charleston Southern5.2%-18.9
11/9/2024Butler96.7%Valparaiso3.3%-22.0
11/9/2024Central Arkansas54.0%Eastern Kentucky46.0%-1.0
11/9/2024Drake50.6%St. Thomas49.4%-0.2
11/9/2024Eastern Washington87.4%Northern Colorado12.6%-12.6
11/9/2024Illinois State54.4%Northern Iowa45.6%-1.1
11/9/2024Southeast Missouri State88.5%Lindenwood11.5%-13.3
11/9/2024Tennessee State81.8%Western Illinois18.2%-9.8
11/9/2024Wofford24.7%Furman75.3%7.3
11/9/2024Idaho State15.6%Weber State84.4%11.0
11/9/2024Lamar6.5%Incarnate Word93.5%17.3
11/9/2024Sacramento State3.3%Montana State96.7%21.9
11/9/2024Nicholls76.0%Houston Christian24.0%-7.5
11/9/2024North Alabama71.0%Southern Utah29.0%-5.8
11/9/2024Alabama A&M66.3%Arkansas-Pine Bluff33.7%-4.4
11/9/2024Alabama State69.8%Grambling State30.2%-5.5
11/9/2024Bethune-Cookman13.2%Southern86.8%12.2
11/9/2024Florida A&M89.7%Prairie View A&M10.3%-14.1
11/9/2024Mississippi Valley State0.4%Jackson State99.6%35.7
11/9/2024Tennessee Tech20.1%Samford79.9%9.0
11/9/2024Texas Southern25.0%Alcorn State75.0%7.2
11/9/2024Richmond92.1%Campbell7.9%-16.0
11/9/2024South Carolina State79.7%Howard20.3%-8.9
11/9/2024Abilene Christian69.1%Austin Peay30.9%-5.2
11/9/2024Idaho76.8%Portland State23.2%-7.8
11/9/2024Stephen F. Austin97.3%Texas A&M-Commerce2.7%-23.5
11/9/2024Northwestern State0.4%Southeastern Louisiana99.6%35.9
11/9/2024Northern Arizona96.5%Cal Poly3.5%-21.7

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