The Barking Crow

Movelor: Game Predictions, 2024

Movelor is The Barking Crow’s college football rating system. Below are Movelor’s predictions for all remaining games.

Last year, Movelor was roughly 0.8 points less accurate per game than the closing spread in betting markets. This year, it’s been 1.1 points worse than the closing spread per game through 751 games.

Overall stats through conference championship weekend:

  • FBS vs. FBS: 69.1% correct winners; 13.3-point absolute average error margin
  • All FBS: 72.8% correct winners; 13.2-point absolute average error margin
  • FCS vs. FCS: 73.1% correct winners; 12.5-point absolute average error margin
  • All Division I: 73.4% correct winners; 13.2-point absolute average error margin

Here’s how it all works. If you’re interested in more data from our model, including College Football Playoff probabilities, that can be found through this menu.

DateTeam 1T1 Win ProbTeam 2T2 Win ProbT2 Predicted Margin
12/23/2024UTSA71.3%Coastal Carolina28.7%-5.9
12/23/2024Northern Illinois21.0%Fresno State79.0%8.6
12/24/2024USF53.7%San Jose State46.3%-1.0
12/26/2024Pitt82.4%Toledo17.6%-10.0
12/26/2024Rutgers34.1%Kansas State65.9%4.3
12/26/2024Arkansas State21.8%Bowling Green State78.2%8.3
12/27/2024Oklahoma81.7%Navy18.3%-9.7
12/27/2024Georgia Tech67.3%Vanderbilt32.7%-4.7
12/27/2024Texas Tech52.2%Arkansas47.8%-0.6
12/27/2024Syracuse68.5%Washington State31.5%-5.1
12/27/2024Texas A&M45.7%USC54.3%1.1
12/28/2024UConn25.6%North Carolina74.4%7.0
12/28/2024Boston College33.8%Nebraska66.2%4.4
12/28/2024Louisiana20.2%TCU79.8%8.9
12/28/2024Iowa State29.2%Miami (FL)70.8%5.8
12/28/2024Miami (OH)62.1%Colorado State37.9%-3.2
12/28/2024East Carolina20.7%NC State79.3%8.8
12/28/2024BYU27.8%Colorado72.2%6.2
12/28/2024Louisiana Tech12.3%Army87.7%12.8
12/30/2024Iowa43.1%Missouri56.9%1.8
12/31/2024Alabama76.8%Michigan23.2%-7.8
12/31/2024Louisville65.3%Washington34.7%-4.1
12/31/2024South Carolina77.8%Illinois22.2%-8.2
12/31/2024Baylor34.2%LSU65.8%4.3
12/31/2024Penn State89.9%Boise State10.1%-14.2
1/1/2025Texas81.5%Arizona State18.5%-9.6
1/1/2025Ohio State47.5%Oregon52.5%0.6
1/1/2025Notre Dame67.0%Georgia33.0%-4.6
1/2/2025Duke8.1%Mississippi91.9%15.9
1/3/2025North Texas20.1%Texas State79.9%9.0
1/3/2025Minnesota63.4%Virginia Tech36.6%-3.6
1/4/2025Buffalo42.2%Liberty57.8%2.0
1/6/2025North Dakota State54.9%Montana State45.1%-1.3
1/9/2025TBDTBDTBDTBDTBD
1/10/2025TBDTBDTBDTBDTBD
1/20/2025TBDTBDTBDTBDTBD

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