This page is archived from the end of the 2023 season. For all 2024 Movelor information, please visit this page.
Below you can find our college football probabilities and Movelor ratings for all FCS schools. Here’s how the model calculates these probabilities, and here is how Movelor works. If you’re interested in more Movelor data, including this week’s predictions, that can be found through this menu.
This is best viewed on a computer, but if viewing on an iPhone, sometimes double-tapping with two fingers will expand the screen to fit the full table.
Last Updated: Final, 2023 Season
| Rank | Team | Movelor | Conference | Projected Wins | National Championship |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Dakota State | 29.5 | MVFC | 15.0 | 100.0% |
| 2 | North Dakota State | 19.5 | MVFC | 11.0 | 0.0% |
| 3 | Montana | 15.3 | Big Sky | 13.0 | 0.0% |
| 4 | Montana State | 14.5 | Big Sky | 8.0 | 0.0% |
| 5 | Villanova | 9.0 | CAA | 10.0 | 0.0% |
| 6 | Furman | 7.7 | Southern | 10.0 | 0.0% |
| 7 | Southern Illinois | 7.2 | MVFC | 8.0 | 0.0% |
| 8 | Idaho | 5.1 | Big Sky | 9.0 | 0.0% |
| 9 | South Dakota | 3.6 | MVFC | 10.0 | 0.0% |
| 10 | Albany | 3.3 | CAA | 11.0 | 0.0% |
| 11 | Weber State | 3.0 | Big Sky | 6.0 | 0.0% |
| 12 | UC Davis | 2.8 | Big Sky | 7.0 | 0.0% |
| 13 | Illinois State | 2.3 | MVFC | 6.0 | 0.0% |
| 14 | Incarnate Word | 1.9 | Southland | 8.0 | 0.0% |
| 15 | Northern Iowa | 0.9 | MVFC | 6.0 | 0.0% |
| 16 | Youngstown State | 0.9 | MVFC | 8.0 | 0.0% |
| 17 | Richmond | 0.6 | CAA | 9.0 | 0.0% |
| 18 | Sacramento State | 0.1 | Big Sky | 8.0 | 0.0% |
| 19 | Missouri State | 0.0 | MVFC | 4.0 | 0.0% |
| 20 | Central Arkansas | -1.0 | UAC | 7.0 | 0.0% |
| 21 | North Dakota | -1.3 | MVFC | 7.0 | 0.0% |
| 22 | Yale | -1.5 | Ivy | 7.0 | 0.0% |
| 23 | Southern Utah | -1.7 | UAC | 6.0 | 0.0% |
| 24 | Tarleton | -1.8 | UAC | 8.0 | 0.0% |
| 25 | Austin Peay | -1.8 | UAC | 9.0 | 0.0% |
| 26 | Northern Arizona | -2.0 | Big Sky | 5.0 | 0.0% |
| 27 | Samford | -2.1 | Southern | 6.0 | 0.0% |
| 28 | Mercer | -2.2 | Southern | 9.0 | 0.0% |
| 29 | New Hampshire | -2.3 | CAA | 6.0 | 0.0% |
| 30 | Chattanooga | -2.4 | Southern | 8.0 | 0.0% |
| 31 | Delaware | -2.6 | CAA | 9.0 | 0.0% |
| 32 | Elon | -2.7 | CAA | 6.0 | 0.0% |
| 33 | Holy Cross | -2.9 | Patriot | 7.0 | 0.0% |
| 34 | Abilene Christian | -4.1 | UAC | 5.0 | 0.0% |
| 35 | Harvard | -4.2 | Ivy | 8.0 | 0.0% |
| 36 | Eastern Kentucky | -4.3 | UAC | 5.0 | 0.0% |
| 37 | William & Mary | -4.4 | CAA | 6.0 | 0.0% |
| 38 | Western Carolina | -5.1 | Southern | 7.0 | 0.0% |
| 39 | Gardner-Webb | -5.5 | Big South-OVC | 7.0 | 0.0% |
| 40 | UT Martin | -5.9 | Big South-OVC | 8.0 | 0.0% |
| 41 | Dartmouth | -6.4 | Ivy | 6.0 | 0.0% |
| 42 | Nicholls | -6.6 | Southland | 6.0 | 0.0% |
| 43 | Lafayette | -6.9 | Patriot | 9.0 | 0.0% |
| 44 | Eastern Washington | -7.1 | Big Sky | 4.0 | 0.0% |
| 45 | Bryant | -7.6 | Big South-OVC | 6.0 | 0.0% |
| 46 | Princeton | -8.2 | Ivy | 5.0 | 0.0% |
| 47 | Rhode Island | -8.4 | CAA | 6.0 | 0.0% |
| 48 | Portland State | -8.5 | Big Sky | 5.0 | 0.0% |
| 49 | Florida A&M | -8.8 | SWAC | 12.0 | 0.0% |
| 50 | Southeast Missouri State | -9.5 | Big South-OVC | 4.0 | 0.0% |
| 51 | Southeastern Louisiana | -9.6 | Southland | 3.0 | 0.0% |
| 52 | Monmouth | -9.8 | CAA | 4.0 | 0.0% |
| 53 | North Carolina Central | -9.9 | MEAC | 9.0 | 0.0% |
| 54 | Penn | -10.4 | Ivy | 6.0 | 0.0% |
| 55 | Stephen F. Austin | -11.4 | UAC | 3.0 | 0.0% |
| 56 | Towson | -11.6 | CAA | 5.0 | 0.0% |
| 57 | Eastern Illinois | -11.7 | Big South-OVC | 8.0 | 0.0% |
| 58 | Kennesaw State | -13.3 | FCS Independents | 3.0 | 0.0% |
| 59 | Fordham | -13.8 | Patriot | 6.0 | 0.0% |
| 60 | Lamar | -14.1 | Southland | 6.0 | 0.0% |
| 61 | Campbell | -14.3 | CAA | 5.0 | 0.0% |
| 62 | Howard | -14.3 | MEAC | 6.0 | 0.0% |
| 63 | Utah Tech | -14.3 | UAC | 2.0 | 0.0% |
| 64 | North Alabama | -14.9 | UAC | 3.0 | 0.0% |
| 65 | Wofford | -14.9 | Southern | 2.0 | 0.0% |
| 66 | Saint Francis (PA) | -15.4 | NEC | 4.0 | 0.0% |
| 67 | Jackson State | -15.5 | SWAC | 7.0 | 0.0% |
| 68 | VMI | -15.9 | Southern | 5.0 | 0.0% |
| 69 | Idaho State | -16.4 | Big Sky | 3.0 | 0.0% |
| 70 | Indiana State | -16.4 | MVFC | 1.0 | 0.0% |
| 71 | Colgate | -16.9 | Patriot | 6.0 | 0.0% |
| 72 | Brown | -17.1 | Ivy | 5.0 | 0.0% |
| 73 | Alcorn State | -17.2 | SWAC | 7.0 | 0.0% |
| 74 | St. Thomas | -17.5 | Pioneer | 8.0 | 0.0% |
| 75 | Alabama State | -17.9 | SWAC | 7.0 | 0.0% |
| 76 | Maine | -18.3 | CAA | 2.0 | 0.0% |
| 77 | Tennessee Tech | -18.4 | Big South-OVC | 4.0 | 0.0% |
| 78 | Columbia | -18.4 | Ivy | 3.0 | 0.0% |
| 79 | Duquesne | -18.6 | NEC | 7.0 | 0.0% |
| 80 | Tennessee State | -18.9 | Big South-OVC | 6.0 | 0.0% |
| 81 | Murray State | -19.2 | MVFC | 2.0 | 0.0% |
| 82 | Morgan State | -19.5 | MEAC | 4.0 | 0.0% |
| 83 | East Tennessee State | -19.5 | Southern | 3.0 | 0.0% |
| 84 | Northern Colorado | -19.8 | Big Sky | 0.0 | 0.0% |
| 85 | Butler | -20.0 | Pioneer | 7.0 | 0.0% |
| 86 | South Carolina State | -20.6 | MEAC | 5.0 | 0.0% |
| 87 | Charleston Southern | -21.0 | Big South-OVC | 4.0 | 0.0% |
| 88 | Cal Poly | -21.3 | Big Sky | 3.0 | 0.0% |
| 89 | Southern | -21.8 | SWAC | 6.0 | 0.0% |
| 90 | Merrimack | -22.1 | NEC | 5.0 | 0.0% |
| 91 | LIU | -22.2 | NEC | 4.0 | 0.0% |
| 92 | Georgetown | -22.2 | Patriot | 5.0 | 0.0% |
| 93 | Texas Southern | -22.2 | SWAC | 3.0 | 0.0% |
| 94 | Houston Christian | -23.1 | Southland | 5.0 | 0.0% |
| 95 | North Carolina A&T | -23.3 | CAA | 1.0 | 0.0% |
| 96 | Davidson | -23.6 | Pioneer | 7.0 | 0.0% |
| 97 | Bucknell | -23.7 | Patriot | 4.0 | 0.0% |
| 98 | San Diego | -23.8 | Pioneer | 4.0 | 0.0% |
| 99 | Hampton | -24.1 | CAA | 5.0 | 0.0% |
| 100 | Grambling State | -24.2 | SWAC | 5.0 | 0.0% |
| 101 | Prairie View A&M | -24.2 | SWAC | 6.0 | 0.0% |
| 102 | Norfolk State | -24.3 | MEAC | 3.0 | 0.0% |
| 103 | Cornell | -24.4 | Ivy | 3.0 | 0.0% |
| 104 | Drake | -24.9 | Pioneer | 8.0 | 0.0% |
| 105 | Stonehill | -25.4 | NEC | 5.0 | 0.0% |
| 106 | Dayton | -25.8 | Pioneer | 4.0 | 0.0% |
| 107 | Bethune-Cookman | -26.3 | SWAC | 3.0 | 0.0% |
| 108 | Robert Morris | -26.3 | Big South-OVC | 4.0 | 0.0% |
| 109 | Lindenwood | -26.5 | Big South-OVC | 3.0 | 0.0% |
| 110 | Texas A&M-Commerce | -26.6 | Southland | 1.0 | 0.0% |
| 111 | Lehigh | -27.0 | Patriot | 2.0 | 0.0% |
| 112 | Alabama A&M | -27.7 | SWAC | 5.0 | 0.0% |
| 113 | McNeese | -27.9 | Southland | 0.0 | 0.0% |
| 114 | Stony Brook | -28.2 | CAA | 0.0 | 0.0% |
| 115 | The Citadel | -28.6 | Southern | 0.0 | 0.0% |
| 116 | Northwestern State | -29.4 | Southland | 0.0 | 0.0% |
| 117 | Sacred Heart | -29.6 | NEC | 2.0 | 0.0% |
| 118 | Valparaiso | -30.8 | Pioneer | 3.0 | 0.0% |
| 119 | Central Connecticut State | -31.2 | NEC | 3.0 | 0.0% |
| 120 | Wagner | -32.3 | NEC | 4.0 | 0.0% |
| 121 | Morehead State | -33.0 | Pioneer | 4.0 | 0.0% |
| 122 | Western Illinois | -34.4 | MVFC | 0.0 | 0.0% |
| 123 | Delaware State | -34.6 | MEAC | 1.0 | 0.0% |
| 124 | Presbyterian | -35.0 | Pioneer | 4.0 | 0.0% |
| 125 | Marist | -36.8 | Pioneer | 4.0 | 0.0% |
| 126 | Mississippi Valley State | -36.8 | SWAC | 1.0 | 0.0% |
| 127 | Stetson | -39.2 | Pioneer | 3.0 | 0.0% |
| 128 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | -40.1 | SWAC | 2.0 | 0.0% |