Movelor Bowl Projections: Week 5

Our bowl projections are live for Week 4, and we’ve included them below, with our full ratings and probabilities entering tonight also included below (for archival purposes). Observations on the bowl front:

  • As Penn State continues to exceed expectations and Georgia continues to win comfortably but not convincingly, Penn State now enjoys the highest average final ranking in our model’s simulations, checking in at 5th. Georgia, Ohio State, and Florida State all average a final ranking of 8th, but Georgia is third among those three, matching them up with Penn State in one semifinal, the Sugar Bowl, while Ohio State plays Florida State in the other, the Rose Bowl. The model is not predicting this—it’s lining up average simulations—but one way to think of this is that if Penn State were 13–0, Florida State were 13–0, Ohio State were 11–1, and Georgia were 12–1, Georgia’s loss would be worse than Ohio State’s (Penn State > ??), Georgia’s best win would be comparable to Ohio State’s (Alabama averages a final ranking of 13th, Michigan averages 14th), and Georgia’s second-best win would be worse than Ohio State’s (Notre Dame averages a final ranking of 16th, Tennessee averages 20th).
  • North Carolina passed Clemson this week to take the ACC’s Orange Bowl slot. One race to watch, if Florida State does make the playoff, is whether the Group of Five champion or the ACC’s Orange Bowl representative enjoys a better ranking. At the moment, UNC averages 20th and Fresno State averages 21st.
  • Texas has leapfrogged Notre Dame in final average ranking, bumping the Irish out of the New Year’s Six and pushing the Longhorns in.
  • We were three bowl-eligible teams short, so we allowed the three teams closest to 50% bowl probability into the mix. Those are Rutgers, BYU, and New Mexico State.
  • Teams entering the bowl picture this week: Central Michigan, Tulsa, Arizona, Rutgers.
  • Teams exiting the bowl picture this week: Oklahoma State, Ball State, Texas Tech, Middle Tennessee. At 38th in Movelor, Texas Tech would be the best team to miss a bowl.
DateBowlTeam 1Team 2T1 ConferenceT2 Conference
1/1/24Sugar Bowl (CFP Semifinal)Penn StateGeorgiaBig TenSEC
1/1/24Rose Bowl (CFP Semifinal)Ohio StateFlorida StateBig TenACC
1/1/24Fiesta BowlWashingtonOklahomaPac-12Big 12
1/1/24ReliaQuest BowlLSUNotre DameSECFBS Independents
1/1/24Citrus BowlTennesseeIowaSECBig Ten
12/30/23Orange BowlNorth CarolinaAlabamaACCSEC
12/30/23Peach BowlOregonMichiganPac-12Big Ten
12/30/23Music City BowlMarylandMissouriBig TenSEC
12/30/23Arizona BowlCentral MichiganBoise StateMACMountain West
12/29/23Cotton BowlTexasFresno StateBig 12Mountain West
12/29/23Gator BowlMiami (FL)MississippiACCSEC
12/29/23Sun BowlSyracuseOregon StateACCPac-12
12/29/23Liberty BowlUCFAuburnBig 12SEC
12/28/23Pinstripe BowlNC StateIllinoisACCBig Ten
12/28/23Pop-Tarts BowlDukeTCUACCBig 12
12/28/23Fenway BowlWake ForestTulaneACCAAC
12/28/23Alamo BowlKansas StateUtahBig 12Pac-12
12/27/23Duke’s Mayo BowlClemsonKentuckyACCSEC
12/27/23Military BowlArkansasMemphisSECAAC
12/27/23Holiday BowlUSCLouisvillePac-12ACC
12/27/23Texas BowlWest VirginiaTexas A&MBig 12SEC
12/26/23Guaranteed Rate BowlKansasMinnesotaBig 12Big Ten
12/26/23Quick Lane BowlOhioRutgersMACBig Ten
12/26/23First Responder BowlUTSAEastern MichiganAACMAC
12/23/23Hawaii BowlWyomingSMUMountain WestAAC
12/23/23Armed Forces BowlSan Diego StateArmyMountain WestFBS Independents
12/23/2368 Ventures BowlMississippi StateAppalachian StateSECSun Belt
12/23/23Birmingham BowlLouisianaSouth CarolinaSun BeltSEC
12/23/23Las Vegas BowlWisconsinUCLABig TenPac-12
12/23/23Famous Idaho Potato BowlMiami (OH)UNLVMACMountain West
12/23/23Camellia BowlEast CarolinaTroyAACSun Belt
12/22/23Gasparilla BowlGeorgia StateFloridaSun BeltSEC
12/21/23Boca Raton BowlUSFSouth AlabamaAACSun Belt
12/19/23Frisco BowlTulsaTexas StateAACSun Belt
12/18/23Myrtle Beach BowlBYUGeorgia SouthernBig 12Sun Belt
12/16/23Independence BowlCincinnatiArizonaBig 12Pac-12
12/16/23New Orleans BowlWestern KentuckyMarshallConference USASun Belt
12/16/23Celebration BowlNorth Carolina CentralFlorida A&MMEACSWAC
12/16/23LA BowlAir ForceWashington StateMountain WestPac-12
12/16/23New Mexico BowlNew Mexico StateUtah StateConference USAMountain West
12/16/23Bahamas BowlLibertyToledoConference USAMAC
12/16/23Cure BowlNavyCoastal CarolinaAACSun Belt
RankTeamMovelorConferenceAverage Final CFP RankingMake PlayoffNational ChampionshipExpected WinsBowl EligibilityMake Conference ChampionshipWin Conference
1Penn State43.5Big Ten563.4%24.8%11.4100.0%50.4%41.9%
9Florida State33.8ACC842.0%7.8%11.3100.0%74.4%49.0%
2Ohio State40.4Big Ten841.3%14.2%10.7100.0%31.6%25.9%
3Georgia40.4SEC837.6%10.0%11.3100.0%74.0%41.4%
6Washington36.1Pac-121030.7%7.4%10.499.9%51.5%30.4%
8Oregon34.9Pac-121225.2%5.6%10.299.9%46.9%25.9%
10Oklahoma33.1Big 121322.7%4.7%10.499.7%53.8%29.4%
11Texas32.6Big 121420.5%3.9%10.099.6%43.0%24.1%
7Michigan35.9Big Ten1418.0%4.6%9.999.9%15.7%11.9%
4Alabama39.5SEC1316.2%3.7%9.999.7%61.4%33.6%
15USC30.5Pac-121811.4%2.2%9.299.2%36.6%16.4%
14Utah30.9Pac-121810.5%1.8%9.499.7%27.7%13.2%
12Notre Dame32.1FBS Independents168.0%1.2%9.199.3%0.0%0.0%
27North Carolina24.8ACC207.4%0.7%9.899.8%27.9%11.8%
24Louisville25.8ACC236.9%0.9%9.799.2%50.5%19.3%
28Syracuse24.5ACC245.6%0.8%9.298.9%16.2%7.6%
5Tennessee36.7SEC204.4%1.2%9.299.7%13.5%8.4%
32Duke23.5ACCNR4.0%0.4%8.596.8%16.8%7.3%
13Kansas State31.1Big 12NR3.5%0.7%9.098.1%43.2%21.3%
18Oregon State29.3Pac-12243.1%0.5%8.497.2%11.1%5.7%
31Washington State23.6Pac-12NR2.8%0.4%8.899.1%14.3%4.6%
16LSU30.0SEC232.8%0.5%8.596.2%25.2%8.5%
19Mississippi28.4SEC232.3%0.5%8.396.9%4.9%2.0%
20Iowa27.6Big TenNR1.5%0.4%9.198.4%39.6%8.6%
25UCLA25.5Pac-12NR1.4%0.2%8.598.0%10.1%3.4%
51Miami (FL)17.2ACCNR1.2%0.1%7.994.4%5.3%2.0%
30Maryland24.0Big TenNR1.0%0.2%8.296.7%2.3%1.3%
17TCU29.4Big 12NR0.8%0.2%8.193.3%25.1%13.3%
23Wisconsin26.0Big TenNR0.8%0.1%8.395.5%44.0%8.0%
21Fresno State27.2Mountain West210.7%0.2%11.6100.0%78.0%50.8%
33Kentucky22.8SECNR0.5%0.1%7.183.0%3.4%1.2%
37West Virginia22.2Big 12NR0.4%0.0%7.384.7%11.7%4.0%
35Air Force22.4Mountain WestNR0.3%0.1%10.699.9%70.6%32.5%
47Kansas18.7Big 12NR0.2%0.0%7.079.4%4.2%1.3%
41UCF20.8Big 12NR0.2%0.0%7.283.7%3.9%1.3%
26Texas A&M24.8SECNR0.2%0.1%6.981.2%5.5%1.7%
22Clemson26.7ACCNR0.2%0.0%7.284.2%2.0%1.0%
45Missouri19.2SECNR0.1%0.0%7.082.8%1.7%0.5%
40Florida21.3SECNR0.1%0.0%6.366.6%4.3%1.0%
39Auburn21.3SECNR0.1%0.0%6.779.6%1.1%0.4%
74Marshall13.0Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%8.190.7%19.6%12.5%
46Illinois19.2Big TenNR0.0%0.0%6.161.9%7.8%1.0%
66Georgia State14.2Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%8.494.0%28.7%18.6%
73Liberty13.1Conference USANR0.0%0.0%10.799.9%82.2%48.0%
29South Carolina24.0SECNR0.0%0.0%6.777.0%3.2%1.0%
34Arkansas22.6SECNR0.0%0.0%6.266.7%1.7%0.4%
58BYU15.5Big 12NR0.0%0.0%5.547.1%0.6%0.2%
36Tulane22.3AmericanNR0.0%0.0%9.899.5%55.2%36.9%
38Texas Tech22.2Big 12NR0.0%0.0%5.039.0%4.3%1.7%
42Minnesota20.5Big TenNR0.0%0.0%5.652.7%4.1%0.8%
43Mississippi State20.0SECNR0.0%0.0%5.959.5%0.2%0.1%
44Iowa State19.3Big 12NR0.0%0.0%5.036.0%3.6%1.4%
48Michigan State18.6Big TenNR0.0%0.0%4.727.9%0.0%0.0%
49Cincinnati18.0Big 12NR0.0%0.0%6.161.0%4.0%1.1%
50James Madison17.9Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%9.70.0%0.0%0.0%
52Nebraska17.2Big TenNR0.0%0.0%5.342.5%3.3%0.4%
53SMU16.5AmericanNR0.0%0.0%8.195.1%38.1%18.3%
54Baylor16.5Big 12NR0.0%0.0%4.019.1%0.9%0.4%
55Oklahoma State16.4Big 12NR0.0%0.0%5.240.8%1.4%0.4%
56Pitt16.1ACCNR0.0%0.0%4.118.0%1.5%0.5%
57Boise State15.8Mountain WestNR0.0%0.0%6.981.8%23.1%8.8%
59Memphis15.4AmericanNR0.0%0.0%8.595.0%35.1%16.4%
60Army15.3FBS IndependentsNR0.0%0.0%6.478.3%0.0%0.0%
61Arizona15.2Pac-12NR0.0%0.0%5.650.8%1.5%0.3%
62Purdue14.9Big TenNR0.0%0.0%3.814.0%0.9%0.1%
63Wake Forest14.9ACCNR0.0%0.0%5.650.6%0.4%0.2%
64East Carolina14.5AmericanNR0.0%0.0%6.366.9%22.5%11.4%
65Toledo14.4MACNR0.0%0.0%9.799.3%60.4%34.0%
67California14.1Pac-12NR0.0%0.0%4.523.0%0.2%0.1%
68Ohio14.0MACNR0.0%0.0%10.099.7%71.1%36.8%
69NC State13.7ACCNR0.0%0.0%6.161.7%3.5%0.9%
70Rutgers13.4Big TenNR0.0%0.0%5.649.9%0.0%0.0%
71Houston13.4Big 12NR0.0%0.0%4.423.0%0.4%0.1%
72Appalachian State13.3Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%7.282.5%26.7%15.7%
75Troy12.6Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%7.282.0%28.0%12.5%
76Western Kentucky11.8Conference USANR0.0%0.0%8.594.9%72.5%39.5%
77Wyoming11.6Mountain WestNR0.0%0.0%7.693.5%10.9%3.7%
78South Alabama11.5Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%7.181.8%34.2%14.8%
79Indiana11.2Big TenNR0.0%0.0%3.913.6%0.0%0.0%
80Georgia Southern11.1Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%7.587.7%16.2%9.1%
81UTSA10.7AmericanNR0.0%0.0%5.959.5%16.0%6.1%
82Georgia Tech10.2ACCNR0.0%0.0%5.034.3%0.6%0.2%
83Navy9.8AmericanNR0.0%0.0%5.654.2%7.1%2.8%
84Louisiana9.5Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%7.589.1%18.5%7.2%
85Coastal Carolina9.1Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%5.958.3%5.9%3.1%
86San Diego State8.7Mountain WestNR0.0%0.0%5.652.6%2.1%0.7%
87Northwestern8.2Big TenNR0.0%0.0%4.213.3%0.4%0.0%
88Virginia Tech8.2ACCNR0.0%0.0%3.610.7%0.6%0.1%
89UNLV8.1Mountain WestNR0.0%0.0%7.591.4%7.8%1.9%
90UAB7.8AmericanNR0.0%0.0%4.937.0%6.7%2.2%
91Utah State7.7Mountain WestNR0.0%0.0%5.551.7%3.0%0.8%
92Virginia7.4ACCNR0.0%0.0%2.94.6%0.3%0.1%
93Arizona State6.9Pac-12NR0.0%0.0%2.70.0%0.0%0.0%
94USF6.6AmericanNR0.0%0.0%6.369.3%9.7%2.9%
95Jacksonville State6.5Conference USANR0.0%0.0%7.40.0%0.0%0.0%
96Central Michigan5.6MACNR0.0%0.0%6.469.8%13.5%6.7%
97Miami (OH)5.4MACNR0.0%0.0%7.587.2%13.4%6.2%
98Stanford5.2Pac-12NR0.0%0.0%2.30.6%0.0%0.0%
99San Jose State5.1Mountain WestNR0.0%0.0%4.015.8%1.2%0.3%
100Tulsa4.4AmericanNR0.0%0.0%5.858.3%3.5%1.2%
101Vanderbilt4.3SECNR0.0%0.0%2.60.5%0.0%0.0%
102Florida Atlantic3.8AmericanNR0.0%0.0%4.325.0%4.2%1.2%
103Texas State3.7Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%6.672.6%12.2%3.6%
104Ball State2.9MACNR0.0%0.0%5.140.7%11.0%4.6%
105Boston College2.5ACCNR0.0%0.0%3.48.4%0.0%0.0%
106Eastern Michigan2.2MACNR0.0%0.0%6.163.0%10.1%3.8%
107Colorado2.0Pac-12NR0.0%0.0%4.313.8%0.0%0.0%
108Buffalo1.9MACNR0.0%0.0%3.714.6%7.2%3.2%
109Old Dominion1.9Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%4.118.4%3.0%1.1%
110Colorado State1.8Mountain WestNR0.0%0.0%4.730.0%1.8%0.3%
111North Texas1.4AmericanNR0.0%0.0%4.322.2%1.3%0.4%
112Western Michigan1.3MACNR0.0%0.0%4.324.8%2.9%1.4%
113Southern Miss1.0Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%3.812.9%3.4%0.9%
114Middle Tennessee0.8Conference USANR0.0%0.0%5.036.3%17.3%5.4%
115Rice0.5AmericanNR0.0%0.0%4.831.9%0.4%0.1%
116Kent State-1.0MACNR0.0%0.0%4.527.6%5.1%1.5%
117New Mexico State-1.7Conference USANR0.0%0.0%5.447.0%8.8%2.1%
118Hawaii-2.0Mountain WestNR0.0%0.0%4.729.4%1.2%0.2%
119UTEP-2.2Conference USANR0.0%0.0%4.119.0%8.7%2.4%
120Sam Houston-2.8Conference USANR0.0%0.0%4.00.0%0.0%0.0%
121Louisiana Tech-3.0Conference USANR0.0%0.0%4.422.4%10.3%2.5%
122Northern Illinois-3.0MACNR0.0%0.0%3.714.4%2.2%0.8%
123Bowling Green State-3.3MACNR0.0%0.0%3.612.1%0.8%0.3%
124Nevada-4.5Mountain WestNR0.0%0.0%2.31.6%0.3%0.0%
125Louisiana Monroe-4.5Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%4.014.0%1.6%0.4%
126Arkansas State-4.7Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%4.318.9%2.2%0.4%
127Temple-5.1AmericanNR0.0%0.0%3.58.3%0.3%0.0%
128Charlotte-5.1AmericanNR0.0%0.0%2.72.9%0.2%0.0%
129Akron-5.1MACNR0.0%0.0%3.612.7%2.4%0.7%
130UConn-5.5FBS IndependentsNR0.0%0.0%2.71.7%0.0%0.0%
131New Mexico-9.7Mountain WestNR0.0%0.0%3.45.2%0.0%0.0%
132FIU-12.4Conference USANR0.0%0.0%4.111.5%0.2%0.0%
133UMass-14.1FBS IndependentsNR0.0%0.0%2.50.1%0.0%0.0%
RankTeamMovelorConferenceProjected WinsConference Championship
1South Dakota State23.1MVFC10.156.8%
2Montana State18.5Big Sky9.056.9%
3North Dakota State16.2MVFC9.221.7%
4Incarnate Word14.4Southland9.996.7%
5Sacramento State8.8Big Sky8.25.6%
6Weber State7.7Big Sky7.68.6%
7Idaho7.1Big Sky7.917.8%
8Furman7.0Southern8.848.9%
9UC Davis6.1Big Sky7.03.6%
10Southern Illinois6.0MVFC8.26.9%
11Holy Cross5.0Patriot8.669.9%
12Northern Iowa4.5MVFC5.73.7%
13Montana4.3Big Sky7.11.9%
14Austin Peay3.9UAC7.644.2%
15Central Arkansas3.2UAC7.033.9%
16Youngstown State2.9MVFC6.75.0%
17North Dakota2.9MVFC6.82.8%
18William & Mary1.3CAA8.829.0%
19Missouri State0.0MVFC4.91.1%
20UT Martin-0.2Big South-OVC8.341.4%
21Chattanooga-0.5Southern7.228.2%
22Southeast Missouri State-0.7Big South-OVC6.039.4%
23Elon-1.0CAA6.516.0%
24Delaware-1.1CAA8.325.5%
25New Hampshire-1.2CAA7.24.0%
26Eastern Washington-1.8Big Sky5.94.6%
27Samford-1.8Southern5.90.7%
28South Dakota-1.8MVFC6.00.9%
29Rhode Island-2.2CAA7.04.5%
30Stephen F. Austin-2.5UAC6.54.4%
31Richmond-2.7CAA6.511.1%
32Western Carolina-3.1Southern7.718.3%
33Illinois State-3.3MVFC6.21.2%
34Villanova-5.4CAA7.06.6%
35Abilene Christian-5.8UAC5.42.5%
36Mercer-5.8Southern6.53.2%
37Fordham-5.8Patriot8.424.5%
38Southern Utah-5.9UAC4.97.1%
39Yale-7.2Ivy5.39.5%
40Portland State-7.4Big Sky5.00.8%
41Southeastern Louisiana-7.5Southland4.91.4%
42Princeton-7.7Ivy5.920.1%
43Campbell-7.7CAA5.40.1%
44Harvard-7.8Ivy6.221.1%
45Eastern Kentucky-8.3UAC4.35.6%
46Penn-8.5Ivy7.018.1%
47North Carolina Central-8.7MEAC7.849.8%
48Jackson State-8.8SWAC8.624.6%
49Northern Arizona-9.1Big Sky3.10.2%
50Albany-9.3CAA6.03.1%
51Gardner-Webb-9.5Big South-OVC5.04.4%
52Dartmouth-10.3Ivy5.514.2%
53Kennesaw State-10.9FCS Independents4.60.0%
54Florida A&M-11.5SWAC9.140.5%
55Columbia-11.5Ivy5.39.3%
56Tarleton-13.0UAC5.61.4%
57Towson-13.7CAA3.10.1%
58Howard-14.3MEAC5.530.9%
59Monmouth-14.9CAA4.00.1%
60Bryant-15.3Big South-OVC5.36.1%
61Cornell-15.7Ivy6.06.8%
62Lafayette-15.8Patriot6.74.4%
63East Tennessee State-15.9Southern3.90.4%
64Maine-15.9CAA3.00.0%
65North Alabama-16.3UAC3.40.2%
66Nicholls-16.6Southland3.90.8%
67Saint Francis (PA)-16.7NEC4.120.2%
68Butler-17.0Pioneer8.128.0%
69Utah Tech-17.5UAC2.60.6%
70North Carolina A&T-17.8CAA2.70.1%
71Tennessee State-17.9Big South-OVC6.44.6%
72Wofford-18.4Southern1.80.1%
73Brown-18.8Ivy3.70.9%
74St. Thomas-18.9Pioneer6.720.5%
75Lindenwood-18.9Big South-OVC4.71.3%
76Southern-18.9SWAC6.414.7%
77Dayton-19.1Pioneer6.97.6%
78Indiana State-19.4MVFC1.70.0%
79Stony Brook-19.8CAA1.90.0%
80Duquesne-20.0NEC5.326.0%
81Davidson-20.1Pioneer6.718.9%
82Morgan State-20.5MEAC4.210.3%
83Idaho State-20.6Big Sky1.50.0%
84Texas A&M-Commerce-20.7Southland3.10.3%
85Charleston Southern-20.9Big South-OVC3.51.0%
86Merrimack-21.2NEC4.68.8%
87LIU-21.3NEC4.423.6%
88Eastern Illinois-21.4Big South-OVC5.50.8%
89VMI-21.5Southern3.40.2%
90Tennessee Tech-21.7Big South-OVC3.20.8%
91San Diego-21.7Pioneer5.720.3%
92Alcorn State-21.9SWAC5.13.2%
93Hampton-22.0CAA3.60.0%
94McNeese-22.1Southland2.80.3%
95Cal Poly-22.3Big Sky2.80.0%
96Prairie View A&M-22.6SWAC6.18.8%
97Bethune-Cookman-23.0SWAC4.91.8%
98Western Illinois-23.1MVFC0.70.0%
99Northern Colorado-23.2Big Sky0.90.0%
100Murray State-23.3MVFC1.90.0%
101South Carolina State-23.7MEAC4.66.3%
102Lamar-24.2Southland3.50.2%
103Lehigh-24.3Patriot3.50.7%
104Robert Morris-24.6Big South-OVC4.20.4%
105Central Connecticut State-24.8NEC4.74.9%
106Northwestern State-25.1Southland2.80.1%
107Alabama A&M-25.2SWAC5.41.0%
108Grambling State-25.5SWAC5.34.2%
109The Citadel-25.9Southern1.40.0%
110Alabama State-26.0SWAC4.90.5%
111Bucknell-27.1Patriot3.70.3%
112Colgate-28.1Patriot2.20.2%
113Sacred Heart-28.8NEC3.04.0%
114Norfolk State-28.9MEAC4.01.6%
115Stonehill-28.9NEC4.27.2%
116Houston Christian-29.2Southland4.00.1%
117Stetson-29.6Pioneer5.52.0%
118Arkansas-Pine Bluff-30.6SWAC3.50.7%
119Texas Southern-31.0SWAC2.30.0%
120Morehead State-31.0Pioneer4.00.9%
121Georgetown-31.4Patriot3.40.1%
122Drake-32.6Pioneer3.41.5%
123Delaware State-32.8MEAC2.31.0%
124Wagner-33.4NEC4.05.4%
125Valparaiso-34.9Pioneer2.40.1%
126Marist-36.8Pioneer3.20.2%
127Mississippi Valley State-40.0SWAC1.10.0%
128Presbyterian-43.0Pioneer3.40.0%
The Barking Crow's resident numbers man. Was asked to do NIT Bracketology in 2018 and never looked back. Fields inquiries on Twitter: @joestunardi.
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