Our bowl projections are live for Week 4, and we’ve included them below, with our full ratings and probabilities entering tonight also included below (for archival purposes). Observations on the bowl front:
With Ohio State exceeding expectations and Michigan failing to meet them, Ohio State now has a better average final CFP ranking in our model’s simulations than Michigan does, putting Ohio State into the Playoff. Michigan falls past Florida State, and is now only the seventh-likeliest team to make the Playoff. The poll voters seem ok with Michigan’s performance so far, but it’s been underwhelming.
Clemson has jumped past Louisville for highest average final CFP ranking among ACC teams not named Florida State, which puts them in the Orange Bowl.
We have a new Big 12 favorite in the form of Oklahoma after Kansas State’s disappointing loss to Missouri.
Fresno State remains the effective Group of Five champion in the most simulations.
We had to cut two teams more likely than not to be bowl-eligible, and because it’s so early in the season, we just cut those who are the closest to 50%: Rice and Arizona. You are both very, very close.
Teams joining the bowl picture this week: BYU, Missouri, USF, New Mexico State.
Teams leaving the bowl picture this week: Pitt, Michigan State, Tulsa, UAB.
We really need to go through the process from previous years to make sure we’re doing these as correctly as one can. At the very least, though, the New Year’s Six is our model’s projection, as are the Playoff matchups, as are the teams most likely to make bowls at all. Those are the parts where we’re confident we’re following our model’s outputs as they would play out in real life.
Date Bowl Team 1 Team 2 T1 Conference T2 Conference 1/1/24 Sugar Bowl (CFP Semifinal) Georgia Florida State SEC ACC 1/1/24 Rose Bowl (CFP Semifinal) Penn State Ohio State Big Ten Big Ten 1/1/24 Fiesta Bowl Oregon Fresno State Pac-12 Mountain West 1/1/24 ReliaQuest Bowl Mississippi Louisville SEC ACC 1/1/24 Citrus Bowl Tennessee Iowa SEC Big Ten 12/30/23 Orange Bowl Clemson Michigan ACC Big Ten 12/30/23 Peach Bowl Alabama Notre Dame SEC FBS Independents 12/30/23 Music City Bowl Maryland Mississippi State Big Ten SEC 12/30/23 Arizona Bowl Eastern Michigan Boise State MAC Mountain West 12/29/23 Cotton Bowl Oklahoma Washington Big 12 Pac-12 12/29/23 Gator Bowl North Carolina LSU ACC SEC 12/29/23 Sun Bowl Miami (FL) UCLA ACC Pac-12 12/29/23 Liberty Bowl UCF Florida Big 12 SEC 12/28/23 Pinstripe Bowl NC State Minnesota ACC Big Ten 12/28/23 Pop-Tarts Bowl Syracuse Kansas State ACC Big 12 12/28/23 Fenway Bowl BYU Memphis Big 12 AAC 12/28/23 Alamo Bowl Texas USC Big 12 Pac-12 12/27/23 Duke’s Mayo Bowl Wake Forest Kentucky ACC SEC 12/27/23 Military Bowl Arkansas Tulane SEC AAC 12/27/23 Holiday Bowl Oregon State Duke Pac-12 ACC 12/27/23 Texas Bowl TCU Auburn Big 12 SEC 12/26/23 Guaranteed Rate Bowl Cincinnati Illinois Big 12 Big Ten 12/26/23 Quick Lane Bowl Ohio Oklahoma State MAC Big 12 12/26/23 First Responder Bowl Texas Tech Marshall Big 12 Sun Belt 12/23/23 Hawaii Bowl UNLV Navy Mountain West AAC 12/23/23 Armed Forces Bowl Kansas Army Big 12 FBS Independents 12/23/23 68 Ventures Bowl Middle Tennessee Georgia State Conference USA Sun Belt 12/23/23 Birmingham Bowl Louisiana South Carolina Sun Belt SEC 12/23/23 Las Vegas Bowl Wisconsin Utah Big Ten Pac-12 12/23/23 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Miami (OH) Wyoming MAC Mountain West 12/23/23 Camellia Bowl SMU Appalachian State AAC Sun Belt 12/22/23 Gasparilla Bowl Coastal Carolina Missouri Sun Belt SEC 12/21/23 Boca Raton Bowl USF Texas State AAC Sun Belt 12/19/23 Frisco Bowl UTSA Georgia Southern AAC Sun Belt 12/18/23 Myrtle Beach Bowl East Carolina Ball State AAC MAC 12/16/23 Independence Bowl West Virginia Washington State Big 12 Pac-12 12/16/23 New Orleans Bowl Liberty South Alabama Conference USA Sun Belt 12/16/23 Celebration Bowl North Carolina Central Florida A&M MEAC SWAC 12/16/23 LA Bowl Air Force Texas A&M Mountain West SEC 12/16/23 New Mexico Bowl New Mexico State Utah State Conference USA Mountain West 12/16/23 Bahamas Bowl Western Kentucky Toledo Conference USA MAC 12/16/23 Cure Bowl San Diego State Troy Mountain West Sun Belt
Rank Team Movelor Conference Average Final CFP Ranking Make Playoff National Championship Expected Wins Bowl Eligibility Make Conference Championship Win Conference 1 Georgia 42.2 SEC 7 51.9% 16.4% 11.5 100.0% 76.8% 47.6% 3 Penn State 41.3 Big Ten 7 47.5% 15.3% 10.9 100.0% 39.3% 31.6% 2 Ohio State 41.5 Big Ten 8 42.6% 15.6% 10.5 99.9% 38.8% 30.7% 10 Florida State 32.1 ACC 11 29.0% 5.0% 10.5 99.8% 55.5% 36.7% 7 Washington 34.8 Pac-12 11 27.0% 6.3% 10.0 99.8% 41.4% 23.7% 8 Oregon 34.3 Pac-12 12 23.9% 5.8% 10.0 99.9% 40.9% 22.4% 5 Michigan 37.1 Big Ten 13 21.6% 6.1% 10.0 99.7% 20.3% 15.4% 12 Oklahoma 31.8 Big 12 16 18.0% 3.5% 10.0 98.9% 45.4% 25.2% 9 USC 32.2 Pac-12 16 17.8% 3.9% 9.5 99.2% 40.9% 20.0% 16 Notre Dame 30.9 FBS Independents 16 13.4% 2.3% 9.2 99.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4 Alabama 38.8 SEC 15 13.3% 3.0% 9.6 98.9% 52.9% 26.0% 15 Oregon State 31.3 Pac-12 17 13.0% 2.7% 9.4 98.7% 30.0% 14.2% 17 Texas 30.2 Big 12 19 12.6% 2.3% 9.4 97.9% 32.1% 18.0% 11 Utah 31.9 Pac-12 17 12.3% 2.5% 9.2 99.1% 25.5% 12.9% 23 Louisville 24.6 ACC NR 6.6% 0.8% 9.5 98.7% 49.9% 20.0% 18 Iowa 29.8 Big Ten 25 5.4% 1.1% 9.5 98.9% 48.4% 12.3% 19 Mississippi 29.0 SEC 21 5.3% 1.0% 8.5 97.5% 10.2% 3.9% 30 Syracuse 23.4 ACC NR 4.9% 0.6% 8.8 96.4% 17.7% 8.5% 6 Tennessee 35.4 SEC 21 4.7% 1.1% 9.0 99.2% 11.2% 6.8% 14 LSU 31.7 SEC 21 4.3% 0.9% 8.5 95.7% 26.8% 9.2% 34 North Carolina 22.5 ACC NR 4.3% 0.5% 9.1 97.7% 19.8% 8.6% 13 Kansas State 31.7 Big 12 NR 3.6% 0.8% 9.0 97.0% 44.1% 24.0% 20 Clemson 28.3 ACC 25 3.5% 0.7% 8.2 91.1% 17.1% 10.5% 24 UCLA 24.5 Pac-12 NR 3.0% 0.4% 8.6 97.9% 12.3% 4.2% 35 Duke 21.6 ACC NR 2.9% 0.2% 8.1 93.2% 15.2% 6.3% 37 Washington State 21.5 Pac-12 NR 1.2% 0.2% 7.9 93.5% 6.4% 2.0% 21 TCU 28.3 Big 12 NR 0.8% 0.2% 7.7 87.6% 23.4% 12.0% 28 Auburn 23.6 SEC NR 0.8% 0.2% 7.4 87.8% 3.8% 1.2% 64 Miami (FL) 15.0 ACC NR 0.6% 0.1% 7.4 88.0% 4.7% 1.7% 45 UCF 20.2 Big 12 NR 0.5% 0.1% 7.2 81.6% 5.8% 2.1% 36 Kentucky 21.6 SEC NR 0.5% 0.1% 6.7 74.7% 2.5% 0.8% 29 Florida 23.5 SEC NR 0.4% 0.1% 6.8 77.0% 6.0% 1.9% 22 Fresno State 25.1 Mountain West NR 0.4% 0.1% 11.3 100.0% 73.1% 47.6% 44 Air Force 20.3 Mountain West NR 0.4% 0.1% 10.1 99.2% 61.1% 28.8% 27 Wisconsin 23.7 Big Ten NR 0.4% 0.1% 7.3 83.1% 21.5% 4.2% 52 Wake Forest 17.7 ACC NR 0.4% 0.1% 6.9 79.1% 5.2% 2.2% 38 Maryland 21.3 Big Ten NR 0.3% 0.1% 7.1 82.7% 1.0% 0.4% 43 West Virginia 20.4 Big 12 NR 0.2% 0.0% 6.4 66.4% 7.7% 2.9% 56 BYU 17.3 Big 12 NR 0.2% 0.0% 6.3 64.3% 3.0% 1.0% 32 Minnesota 23.0 Big Ten NR 0.2% 0.0% 6.7 73.9% 13.4% 2.5% 33 Texas A&M 22.6 SEC NR 0.1% 0.0% 6.1 62.3% 3.0% 0.8% 55 Missouri 17.6 SEC NR 0.1% 0.0% 6.2 63.9% 1.1% 0.4% 59 Kansas 16.8 Big 12 NR 0.1% 0.0% 6.2 61.9% 2.8% 1.0% 40 Michigan State 21.2 Big Ten NR 0.1% 0.0% 5.5 48.1% 0.6% 0.4% 67 NC State 13.9 ACC NR 0.1% 0.0% 5.8 54.2% 3.9% 1.2% 58 Memphis 17.0 American NR 0.0% 0.0% 9.2 97.3% 37.8% 18.1% 31 South Carolina 23.1 SEC NR 0.0% 0.0% 6.2 66.3% 2.3% 0.7% 41 Mississippi State 21.0 SEC NR 0.0% 0.0% 6.5 70.2% 1.2% 0.3% 68 Marshall 13.7 Sun Belt NR 0.0% 0.0% 7.9 86.9% 20.0% 12.1% 46 Cincinnati 19.4 Big 12 NR 0.0% 0.0% 6.6 70.4% 9.7% 3.3% 60 Arizona 16.8 Pac-12 NR 0.0% 0.0% 5.7 52.0% 2.1% 0.4% 80 Liberty 11.1 Conference USA NR 0.0% 0.0% 10.1 99.3% 72.3% 39.0% 26 Texas Tech 23.9 Big 12 NR 0.0% 0.0% 5.9 57.3% 12.7% 5.4% 39 Illinois 21.2 Big Ten NR 0.0% 0.0% 6.3 66.7% 9.4% 1.4% 42 Arkansas 20.9 SEC NR 0.0% 0.0% 6.0 61.1% 2.1% 0.5% 49 Pitt 18.4 ACC NR 0.0% 0.0% 5.1 38.8% 8.5% 3.6% 51 Iowa State 18.0 Big 12 NR 0.0% 0.0% 4.4 25.9% 3.0% 1.2% 54 SMU 17.7 American NR 0.0% 0.0% 8.5 96.3% 41.0% 18.4% 75 Georgia State 11.9 Sun Belt NR 0.0% 0.0% 7.2 78.6% 14.9% 8.4% 25 Tulane 24.5 American NR 0.0% 0.0% 10.2 99.8% 61.7% 42.2% 47 Nebraska 19.1 Big Ten NR 0.0% 0.0% 5.5 49.1% 3.8% 0.6% 48 Baylor 18.9 Big 12 NR 0.0% 0.0% 4.8 34.6% 4.8% 1.8% 50 James Madison 18.2 Sun Belt NR 0.0% 0.0% 9.3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 53 Oklahoma State 17.7 Big 12 NR 0.0% 0.0% 5.9 56.9% 5.4% 1.9% 57 Purdue 17.2 Big Ten NR 0.0% 0.0% 4.3 25.0% 3.4% 0.4% 61 Boise State 16.6 Mountain West NR 0.0% 0.0% 6.9 77.4% 26.7% 12.1% 62 Army 16.4 FBS Independents NR 0.0% 0.0% 6.7 82.0% 0.0% 0.0% 63 California 15.4 Pac-12 NR 0.0% 0.0% 4.8 30.0% 0.5% 0.1% 65 Appalachian State 14.8 Sun Belt NR 0.0% 0.0% 7.9 88.4% 31.7% 18.7% 66 South Alabama 14.0 Sun Belt NR 0.0% 0.0% 8.2 92.9% 37.5% 17.7% 69 Indiana 13.5 Big Ten NR 0.0% 0.0% 4.2 19.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70 Troy 13.3 Sun Belt NR 0.0% 0.0% 6.8 74.7% 25.2% 12.6% 71 Toledo 13.0 MAC NR 0.0% 0.0% 9.1 97.0% 47.8% 28.4% 72 Rutgers 12.3 Big Ten NR 0.0% 0.0% 5.5 43.7% 0.0% 0.0% 73 East Carolina 12.2 American NR 0.0% 0.0% 5.7 54.1% 14.9% 6.7% 74 UTSA 11.9 American NR 0.0% 0.0% 6.2 66.3% 18.8% 6.9% 76 Ohio 11.6 MAC NR 0.0% 0.0% 9.4 98.0% 59.1% 29.6% 77 Coastal Carolina 11.4 Sun Belt NR 0.0% 0.0% 6.9 75.4% 18.8% 10.0% 78 Houston 11.2 Big 12 NR 0.0% 0.0% 3.9 15.3% 0.2% 0.1% 79 Western Kentucky 11.1 Conference USA NR 0.0% 0.0% 8.7 94.0% 68.5% 39.8% 81 Louisiana 10.8 Sun Belt NR 0.0% 0.0% 7.5 87.8% 17.9% 7.9% 82 Wyoming 10.2 Mountain West NR 0.0% 0.0% 7.1 83.3% 10.7% 3.5% 83 Navy 9.8 American NR 0.0% 0.0% 5.8 57.4% 7.3% 2.5% 84 Georgia Southern 8.2 Sun Belt NR 0.0% 0.0% 6.3 65.4% 9.8% 4.4% 85 San Diego State 7.9 Mountain West NR 0.0% 0.0% 5.9 59.9% 7.2% 2.3% 86 Virginia Tech 7.5 ACC NR 0.0% 0.0% 3.6 13.4% 0.8% 0.2% 87 Georgia Tech 7.4 ACC NR 0.0% 0.0% 3.9 14.2% 0.2% 0.1% 88 Utah State 7.3 Mountain West NR 0.0% 0.0% 5.7 55.9% 3.7% 1.3% 89 San Jose State 7.2 Mountain West NR 0.0% 0.0% 4.8 32.2% 6.0% 1.9% 90 Virginia 7.2 ACC NR 0.0% 0.0% 3.5 12.7% 1.5% 0.3% 91 UAB 6.0 American NR 0.0% 0.0% 4.6 30.0% 3.8% 1.2% 92 UNLV 5.9 Mountain West NR 0.0% 0.0% 6.8 77.7% 7.6% 1.8% 93 Ball State 5.8 MAC NR 0.0% 0.0% 6.0 59.5% 17.0% 9.1% 94 Northwestern 5.8 Big Ten NR 0.0% 0.0% 3.1 3.5% 0.1% 0.0% 95 Vanderbilt 5.5 SEC NR 0.0% 0.0% 2.9 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 96 Arizona State 5.2 Pac-12 NR 0.0% 0.0% 2.6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 97 USF 4.9 American NR 0.0% 0.0% 5.7 53.8% 5.7% 1.3% 98 Eastern Michigan 4.6 MAC NR 0.0% 0.0% 6.9 75.1% 15.3% 6.7% 99 Miami (OH) 4.4 MAC NR 0.0% 0.0% 7.3 83.1% 14.7% 7.1% 100 Old Dominion 4.3 Sun Belt NR 0.0% 0.0% 4.5 26.0% 4.7% 2.0% 101 Jacksonville State 4.1 Conference USA NR 0.0% 0.0% 6.5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 102 Boston College 3.7 ACC NR 0.0% 0.0% 3.8 13.9% 0.1% 0.0% 103 Texas State 3.6 Sun Belt NR 0.0% 0.0% 6.3 65.5% 9.5% 3.2% 104 Stanford 3.6 Pac-12 NR 0.0% 0.0% 2.4 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 105 Southern Miss 3.3 Sun Belt NR 0.0% 0.0% 4.6 29.2% 8.2% 2.7% 106 Central Michigan 3.1 MAC NR 0.0% 0.0% 5.1 40.3% 9.5% 4.5% 107 Middle Tennessee 3.1 Conference USA NR 0.0% 0.0% 6.1 61.5% 26.7% 10.4% 108 Western Michigan 2.7 MAC NR 0.0% 0.0% 4.7 31.8% 6.6% 2.9% 109 Colorado 2.6 Pac-12 NR 0.0% 0.0% 4.4 16.9% 0.0% 0.0% 110 Tulsa 2.6 American NR 0.0% 0.0% 5.1 41.2% 2.6% 0.8% 111 Rice 2.2 American NR 0.0% 0.0% 5.6 50.0% 2.0% 0.6% 112 Florida Atlantic 1.8 American NR 0.0% 0.0% 4.1 22.2% 2.7% 0.8% 113 North Texas 1.4 American NR 0.0% 0.0% 4.2 20.7% 1.0% 0.3% 114 Kent State 1.1 MAC NR 0.0% 0.0% 4.9 36.0% 10.9% 4.3% 115 Buffalo 0.5 MAC NR 0.0% 0.0% 3.7 16.3% 8.1% 3.3% 116 UTEP -0.1 Conference USA NR 0.0% 0.0% 4.8 34.5% 12.2% 4.4% 117 Colorado State -0.4 Mountain West NR 0.0% 0.0% 3.8 16.8% 1.6% 0.4% 118 New Mexico State -0.5 Conference USA NR 0.0% 0.0% 6.1 60.3% 11.7% 4.1% 119 Sam Houston -0.7 Conference USA NR 0.0% 0.0% 4.5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 120 Bowling Green State -1.0 MAC NR 0.0% 0.0% 4.3 24.3% 5.2% 2.0% 121 Northern Illinois -1.2 MAC NR 0.0% 0.0% 4.5 28.2% 3.9% 1.6% 122 Temple -2.8 American NR 0.0% 0.0% 4.1 18.2% 0.7% 0.2% 123 Hawaii -3.1 Mountain West NR 0.0% 0.0% 4.2 23.2% 1.5% 0.2% 124 UConn -3.6 FBS Independents NR 0.0% 0.0% 3.0 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 125 Nevada -4.3 Mountain West NR 0.0% 0.0% 2.8 5.4% 0.8% 0.2% 126 Louisiana Monroe -4.5 Sun Belt NR 0.0% 0.0% 3.9 12.5% 1.1% 0.2% 127 Louisiana Tech -4.9 Conference USA NR 0.0% 0.0% 4.1 16.2% 7.5% 2.1% 128 Arkansas State -6.9 Sun Belt NR 0.0% 0.0% 3.2 7.1% 0.6% 0.1% 129 Charlotte -7.3 American NR 0.0% 0.0% 2.5 2.1% 0.2% 0.0% 130 Akron -7.4 MAC NR 0.0% 0.0% 3.2 8.9% 2.0% 0.7% 131 FIU -10.4 Conference USA NR 0.0% 0.0% 4.4 17.5% 1.0% 0.2% 132 New Mexico -11.1 Mountain West NR 0.0% 0.0% 2.7 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 133 UMass -12.6 FBS Independents NR 0.0% 0.0% 3.2 2.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Rank Team Movelor Conference Projected Wins Conference Championship 1 South Dakota State 23.1 MVFC 10.1 57.8% 2 North Dakota State 16.2 MVFC 9.3 21.9% 3 Montana State 15.6 Big Sky 8.3 23.7% 4 Incarnate Word 13.1 Southland 9.8 90.2% 5 Sacramento State 10.9 Big Sky 8.9 16.0% 6 Weber State 10.6 Big Sky 8.4 25.6% 7 UC Davis 8.6 Big Sky 8.1 17.6% 8 Montana 7.2 Big Sky 8.3 9.4% 9 Southern Illinois 6.0 MVFC 8.3 6.2% 10 Furman 5.1 Southern 8.4 42.8% 11 Idaho 5.0 Big Sky 7.0 6.6% 12 Austin Peay 4.8 UAC 7.3 37.8% 13 Northern Iowa 4.5 MVFC 5.8 4.1% 14 Holy Cross 3.5 Patriot 8.4 71.9% 15 Youngstown State 2.9 MVFC 6.8 4.9% 16 North Dakota 2.9 MVFC 6.8 2.8% 17 Southeast Missouri State 1.5 Big South-OVC 7.2 51.4% 18 Samford 1.0 Southern 6.9 13.0% 19 Central Arkansas 0.6 UAC 6.3 21.2% 20 Rhode Island 0.6 CAA 7.9 21.0% 21 New Hampshire 0.1 CAA 7.7 15.0% 22 William & Mary -0.3 CAA 8.3 18.6% 23 Richmond -0.6 CAA 6.6 13.8% 24 UT Martin -1.8 Big South-OVC 7.7 31.5% 25 South Dakota -1.8 MVFC 6.0 0.8% 26 Elon -2.1 CAA 6.0 9.4% 27 Delaware -2.4 CAA 7.6 13.5% 28 Missouri State -2.5 MVFC 4.4 0.6% 29 Abilene Christian -3.2 UAC 6.0 11.6% 30 Chattanooga -3.3 Southern 6.2 14.9% 31 Stephen F. Austin -3.4 UAC 6.7 13.4% 32 Mercer -3.8 Southern 7.1 12.8% 33 Southeastern Louisiana -4.3 Southland 6.2 8.7% 34 Eastern Washington -4.3 Big Sky 4.8 0.9% 35 Yale -4.7 Ivy 6.6 25.8% 36 Princeton -5.1 Ivy 7.2 24.0% 37 Illinois State -5.4 MVFC 5.8 0.8% 38 Harvard -5.9 Ivy 6.5 20.2% 39 Western Carolina -5.9 Southern 7.1 14.4% 40 Southern Utah -6.1 UAC 4.7 7.3% 41 Campbell -6.5 CAA 6.0 1.8% 42 Jackson State -6.8 SWAC 8.6 24.2% 43 Gardner-Webb -7.2 Big South-OVC 5.6 5.4% 44 Albany -8.1 CAA 5.8 3.5% 45 Fordham -8.2 Patriot 8.1 22.0% 46 Villanova -8.2 CAA 5.9 2.6% 47 Kennesaw State -8.3 FCS Independents 5.5 0.0% 48 Penn -9.5 Ivy 6.6 11.6% 49 Portland State -9.8 Big Sky 4.6 0.3% 50 Dartmouth -9.9 Ivy 5.4 11.2% 51 Florida A&M -9.9 SWAC 9.2 43.0% 52 Eastern Kentucky -10.5 UAC 3.1 3.7% 53 North Carolina Central -10.7 MEAC 7.6 45.9% 54 Towson -10.7 CAA 4.5 0.3% 55 Tarleton -11.0 UAC 5.9 3.5% 56 Northern Arizona -12.0 Big Sky 1.9 0.0% 57 Monmouth -13.0 CAA 4.9 0.3% 58 Columbia -13.3 Ivy 4.9 5.2% 59 Saint Francis (PA) -14.0 NEC 5.3 39.7% 60 Maine -14.2 CAA 3.3 0.1% 61 Howard -14.3 MEAC 5.7 35.4% 62 North Alabama -14.7 UAC 3.8 0.3% 63 Utah Tech -14.9 UAC 3.1 1.3% 64 East Tennessee State -15.9 Southern 3.9 0.7% 65 Dayton -16.6 Pioneer 7.9 27.5% 66 Wofford -16.6 Southern 2.6 1.3% 67 Lindenwood -16.7 Big South-OVC 5.2 1.5% 68 St. Thomas -17.0 Pioneer 6.8 22.9% 69 North Carolina A&T -17.8 CAA 2.8 0.0% 70 Lafayette -17.8 Patriot 5.8 3.9% 71 Bryant -17.8 Big South-OVC 3.8 3.1% 72 Tennessee State -17.9 Big South-OVC 6.3 3.4% 73 Butler -18.1 Pioneer 7.6 18.4% 74 Charleston Southern -18.1 Big South-OVC 4.1 2.0% 75 Cornell -18.3 Ivy 4.6 1.3% 76 Merrimack -18.7 NEC 5.7 19.0% 77 Nicholls -18.7 Southland 3.7 0.4% 78 Southern -18.9 SWAC 6.4 12.6% 79 Indiana State -19.4 MVFC 1.8 0.0% 80 Alcorn State -19.8 SWAC 6.2 9.9% 81 Cal Poly -19.9 Big Sky 3.1 0.0% 82 Duquesne -20.0 NEC 5.3 17.2% 83 Eastern Illinois -20.7 Big South-OVC 5.3 1.1% 84 Brown -20.8 Ivy 3.5 0.8% 85 Northern Colorado -21.1 Big Sky 1.6 0.0% 86 LIU -21.3 NEC 4.3 13.4% 87 Morgan State -21.7 MEAC 4.5 11.3% 88 Stony Brook -21.8 CAA 1.8 0.0% 89 Hampton -22.0 CAA 3.6 0.0% 90 Idaho State -22.7 Big Sky 1.0 0.0% 91 McNeese -22.8 Southland 3.3 0.4% 92 Western Illinois -22.9 MVFC 0.8 0.0% 93 Texas A&M-Commerce -23.2 Southland 2.9 0.2% 94 Davidson -23.2 Pioneer 6.1 12.4% 95 VMI -23.3 Southern 2.6 0.1% 96 Murray State -23.3 MVFC 1.9 0.0% 97 The Citadel -23.4 Southern 2.1 0.0% 98 San Diego -24.2 Pioneer 4.9 10.4% 99 Alabama A&M -24.2 SWAC 5.4 1.2% 100 Tennessee Tech -24.4 Big South-OVC 2.0 0.4% 101 Prairie View A&M -24.7 SWAC 5.2 3.6% 102 Lehigh -24.7 Patriot 3.5 0.7% 103 Central Connecticut State -24.8 NEC 4.8 2.8% 104 Bethune-Cookman -25.0 SWAC 4.6 1.5% 105 Northwestern State -25.1 Southland 3.0 0.1% 106 South Carolina State -26.2 MEAC 3.9 4.6% 107 Bucknell -26.2 Patriot 4.1 0.7% 108 Colgate -26.6 Patriot 2.5 0.6% 109 Stonehill -26.6 NEC 4.7 6.8% 110 Lamar -26.7 Southland 3.2 0.0% 111 Robert Morris -27.1 Big South-OVC 3.7 0.2% 112 Grambling State -27.2 SWAC 4.7 2.5% 113 Alabama State -27.5 SWAC 4.8 0.7% 114 Stetson -28.5 Pioneer 6.0 4.7% 115 Texas Southern -29.3 SWAC 2.8 0.2% 116 Georgetown -29.5 Patriot 3.8 0.2% 117 Sacred Heart -31.5 NEC 1.6 0.4% 118 Arkansas-Pine Bluff -31.6 SWAC 3.6 0.7% 119 Delaware State -31.8 MEAC 2.5 1.6% 120 Norfolk State -31.8 MEAC 2.8 1.2% 121 Houston Christian -32.4 Southland 2.8 0.0% 122 Valparaiso -32.5 Pioneer 3.6 1.2% 123 Drake -32.6 Pioneer 3.4 1.6% 124 Morehead State -32.8 Pioneer 3.8 0.9% 125 Wagner -35.8 NEC 2.8 0.9% 126 Mississippi Valley State -38.0 SWAC 1.4 0.1% 127 Marist -39.2 Pioneer 2.2 0.0% 128 Presbyterian -43.0 Pioneer 3.5 0.0%
