Movelor Bowl Projections: Week 3

Our bowl projections are live for Week 3, and we’ve included them below, with our full ratings and probabilities entering tonight below those (for archival purposes). Observations on the bowl front:

  • Alabama’s loss shook things up, of course, but so did Penn State passing Ohio State and Michigan in our model’s evaluation of the Big Ten. We’ve got the four likeliest playoff teams now going Georgia, Penn State, Florida State, Michigan.
  • The addition of Florida State to the playoff means a different ACC team gets to play in the Orange Bowl. Our model still has Louisville having the second-best season in that league, which puts the Cards in Miami, playing Ohio State.
  • The model still has Kansas State as the Big 12 favorite, numerically hung up on Texas’s unimpressive performance against Rice. One thing happening here—and this is happening in the Pac-12 as well—is that the Big 12 has a clump of possible champions who, averaged out, all beat each other. In reality, the best team in each of those leagues will almost definitely wind up in the top ten, and very well could make the Playoff. We rely on the average for these, and at the moment, it averages out to a great, big split between the five Pac-12 teams and between K-State, Texas, and Oklahoma in the Big 12.
  • Even with Fresno State’s near-loss to Eastern Washington, they finish with the best average ranking in our simulations among Group of Five schools. I would bet on the AAC champion taking this spot instead, but as with the Pac-12 and Big 12, there’s some cannibalization which happens there if everyone plays to the average. That said, it’s possible Eastern Washington is going to bounce back and be a solid FCS team again. The Big Sky is really deep, which may have artificially deflated their record last year. Ultimately, if Fresno State goes 12–1 or 13–0, they’re probably in the New Year’s Six, and if they don’t, the likeliest alternative is the AAC champion takes it (more likely Tulane than anyone else).
  • Teams joining the bowl picture this week: Kansas, Utah State, South Carolina, Ball State, Texas State, West Virginia, and Florida.
  • Teams leaving the bowl picture this week: Iowa State, New Mexico State, UTEP, Nebraska, Western Michigan, Buffalo, Houston.
  • We included four teams who are less than 50% likely to make a bowl, to ensure that we filled our 82 FBS bowl slots. The average number of bowl-eligible teams in our simulations is currently 78.3, but that’ll wobble for a while yet, so we aren’t planning to look into APR for a few more weeks.
DateBowlTeam 1Team 2T1 ConferenceT2 Conference
1/1/24Sugar Bowl (CFP Semifinal)GeorgiaMichiganSECBig Ten
1/1/24Rose Bowl (CFP Semifinal)Penn StateFlorida StateBig TenACC
1/1/24Fiesta BowlTennesseeUSCSECPac-12
1/1/24ReliaQuest BowlLSUMinnesotaSECBig Ten
1/1/24Citrus BowlMississippiIowaSECBig Ten
12/30/23Orange BowlLouisvilleOhio StateACCBig Ten
12/30/23Peach BowlAlabamaNotre DameSECFBS Independents
12/30/23Music City BowlIllinoisSouth CarolinaBig TenSEC
12/30/23Arizona BowlEastern MichiganUtah StateMACMountain West
12/29/23Cotton BowlKansas StateFresno StateBig 12Mountain West
12/29/23Gator BowlWake ForestKentuckyACCSEC
12/29/23Sun BowlSyracuseUtahACCPac-12
12/29/23Liberty BowlOklahoma StateArkansasBig 12SEC
12/28/23Pinstripe BowlDukeMarylandACCBig Ten
12/28/23Pop-Tarts BowlNorth CarolinaOklahomaACCBig 12
12/28/23Fenway BowlNC StateTulaneACCAAC
12/28/23Alamo BowlTexasOregon StateBig 12Pac-12
12/27/23Duke’s Mayo BowlClemsonMississippi StateACCSEC
12/27/23Military BowlPittMemphisACCAAC
12/27/23Holiday BowlOregonMiami (FL)Pac-12ACC
12/27/23Texas BowlCincinnatiAuburnBig 12SEC
12/26/23Guaranteed Rate BowlTCUMichigan StateBig 12Big Ten
12/26/23Quick Lane BowlToledoPurdueMACBig Ten
12/26/23First Responder BowlTexas TechNavyBig 12AAC
12/23/23Hawaii BowlUNLVSMUMountain WestAAC
12/23/23Armed Forces BowlKansasCoastal CarolinaBig 12Sun Belt
12/23/2368 Ventures BowlArmyGeorgia SouthernFBS IndependentsSun Belt
12/23/23Birmingham BowlUTSATexas A&MAACSEC
12/23/23Las Vegas BowlWisconsinWashingtonBig TenPac-12
12/23/23Famous Idaho Potato BowlOhioWyomingMACMountain West
12/23/23Camellia BowlBall StateTroyMACSun Belt
12/22/23Gasparilla BowlEast CarolinaFloridaAACSEC
12/21/23Boca Raton BowlSan Diego StateSouth AlabamaMountain WestSun Belt
12/19/23Frisco BowlTulsaTexas StateAACSun Belt
12/18/23Myrtle Beach BowlMiddle TennesseeAppalachian StateConference USASun Belt
12/16/23Independence BowlUCFWashington StateBig 12Pac-12
12/16/23New Orleans BowlLibertyMarshallConference USASun Belt
12/16/23Celebration BowlNorth Carolina CentralFlorida A&MMEACSWAC
12/16/23LA BowlAir ForceUCLAMountain WestPac-12
12/16/23New Mexico BowlLouisianaBoise StateSun BeltMountain West
12/16/23Bahamas BowlWestern KentuckyMiami (OH)Conference USAMAC
12/16/23Cure BowlUABGeorgia StateAACSun Belt
RankTeamMovelorConferenceAverage Final CFP RankingMake PlayoffNational ChampionshipExpected WinsBowl EligibilityMake Conference ChampionshipWin Conference
1Georgia44.2SEC655.1%21.9%11.6100.0%69.1%43.7%
3Penn State40.7Big Ten936.7%11.1%10.7100.0%36.5%28.7%
7Florida State34.6ACC935.6%7.8%10.999.9%63.1%43.9%
4Michigan39.3Big Ten1030.8%8.9%10.499.8%30.2%23.8%
5Ohio State39.1Big Ten1127.8%8.1%10.099.4%31.1%24.2%
2Alabama41.1SEC1219.1%4.9%9.999.4%62.3%29.2%
6Tennessee38.2SEC1220.9%5.8%10.299.9%27.0%16.0%
11Notre Dame32.7FBS Independents1417.2%2.8%9.599.1%0.0%0.0%
9Oregon State33.2Pac-121518.1%3.8%9.999.4%39.3%20.7%
10Oregon32.7Pac-121517.6%3.5%9.799.5%35.1%18.8%
13USC32.2Pac-121616.1%3.3%9.699.3%44.1%21.4%
8Kansas State34.3Big 121717.6%3.5%10.198.8%49.9%30.2%
12Utah32.5Pac-121713.6%2.6%9.499.3%29.9%16.3%
15Texas31.4Big 121714.2%2.5%9.497.6%34.7%20.6%
14Washington32.2Pac-121813.4%2.8%9.197.4%31.5%16.4%
16Oklahoma29.3Big 12229.3%1.5%9.296.5%31.9%15.5%
19Mississippi28.2SEC234.0%0.6%8.295.5%7.7%2.4%
22Louisville26.0ACCNR6.8%0.9%9.597.8%52.7%20.9%
18Iowa28.8Big TenNR4.4%0.7%9.297.7%41.3%10.7%
39Syracuse21.1ACCNR1.9%0.2%7.786.2%12.1%5.5%
17LSU29.2SECNR1.9%0.4%7.788.0%15.1%4.3%
32Cincinnati22.3Big 12NR1.8%0.2%8.289.1%17.7%6.1%
30Washington State22.9Pac-12NR1.8%0.3%8.295.0%9.4%3.0%
20Clemson26.7ACCNR1.7%0.3%7.786.9%12.8%7.0%
23Minnesota25.5Big TenNR1.5%0.2%7.685.6%18.2%4.2%
45North Carolina20.0ACCNR1.4%0.1%8.089.3%13.5%5.2%
31UCLA22.4Pac-12NR1.4%0.2%8.194.7%8.2%2.7%
46Duke19.9ACCNR1.1%0.1%7.483.9%10.0%3.9%
28Arkansas23.4SECNR0.7%0.1%7.586.6%4.3%1.0%
48Wake Forest19.4ACCNR0.7%0.1%7.077.7%7.5%3.1%
57Miami (FL)16.2ACCNR0.7%0.1%7.789.9%6.2%2.2%
40Oklahoma State20.7Big 12NR0.7%0.2%7.379.2%9.6%3.4%
26Michigan State23.9Big TenNR0.6%0.1%6.467.5%1.5%0.9%
27Mississippi State23.5SECNR0.6%0.1%7.482.9%5.8%1.2%
52Kansas18.8Big 12NR0.5%0.1%6.567.4%4.4%1.8%
51UCF18.8Big 12NR0.4%0.1%6.772.8%4.0%1.4%
35Auburn21.8SECNR0.4%0.1%7.080.5%2.9%0.7%
43Pitt20.3ACCNR0.3%0.1%5.956.4%12.2%5.5%
29Fresno State22.9Mountain WestNR0.3%0.0%10.999.8%69.1%44.1%
36Kentucky21.7SECNR0.3%0.0%6.775.4%1.1%0.4%
21TCU26.2Big 12NR0.3%0.1%7.076.8%14.9%7.7%
33Wisconsin22.3Big TenNR0.2%0.0%6.875.3%17.3%2.8%
50Air Force19.0Mountain WestNR0.2%0.0%9.898.0%54.3%26.8%
44Iowa State20.1Big 12NR0.1%0.0%5.344.5%4.7%1.9%
49Maryland19.2Big TenNR0.1%0.0%6.571.4%0.7%0.4%
34Illinois21.9Big TenNR0.1%0.0%6.670.9%13.4%2.6%
53Memphis18.7AmericanNR0.1%0.0%9.597.5%40.6%21.6%
54West Virginia18.4Big 12NR0.1%0.0%5.447.1%5.8%1.8%
24Texas Tech24.4Big 12NR0.0%0.0%6.059.6%13.7%6.1%
41Florida20.6SECNR0.0%0.0%5.547.1%1.2%0.3%
58Arizona15.7Pac-12NR0.0%0.0%5.344.4%1.9%0.5%
60NC State15.1ACCNR0.0%0.0%6.057.6%5.4%1.6%
62BYU14.8Big 12NR0.0%0.0%4.935.2%1.4%0.4%
42Texas A&M20.4SECNR0.0%0.0%5.752.1%1.9%0.4%
61Missouri15.0SECNR0.0%0.0%5.035.7%0.4%0.1%
38South Carolina21.1SECNR0.0%0.0%6.061.5%1.2%0.4%
70Marshall13.7Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%8.187.8%24.8%14.8%
71Western Kentucky13.5Conference USANR0.0%0.0%9.296.3%75.9%50.0%
47Purdue19.6Big TenNR0.0%0.0%5.345.6%6.4%1.1%
77Rutgers10.1Big TenNR0.0%0.0%4.930.5%0.0%0.0%
25Tulane24.0AmericanNR0.0%0.0%9.799.2%54.1%37.0%
37Baylor21.3Big 12NR0.0%0.0%5.242.3%6.5%2.8%
55Nebraska18.1Big TenNR0.0%0.0%5.242.7%3.3%0.6%
56James Madison17.1Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%8.70.0%0.0%0.0%
59SMU15.2AmericanNR0.0%0.0%8.093.0%30.3%12.4%
63Boise State14.7Mountain WestNR0.0%0.0%6.467.0%24.5%11.9%
64Toledo14.5MACNR0.0%0.0%9.396.7%52.8%35.3%
65East Carolina14.4AmericanNR0.0%0.0%6.670.9%20.9%9.3%
66California14.4Pac-12NR0.0%0.0%4.423.2%0.5%0.2%
67Army14.4FBS IndependentsNR0.0%0.0%6.267.0%0.0%0.0%
68Troy14.3Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%7.884.4%43.1%22.2%
69UTSA14.0AmericanNR0.0%0.0%7.179.8%23.7%10.0%
72Houston13.3Big 12NR0.0%0.0%4.323.4%1.0%0.3%
73Appalachian State12.6Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%7.074.9%25.2%14.3%
74Indiana12.0Big TenNR0.0%0.0%4.118.9%0.0%0.0%
75Georgia State11.7Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%7.277.7%16.5%9.9%
76South Alabama11.0Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%6.976.6%24.9%11.7%
78Virginia Tech9.7ACCNR0.0%0.0%4.426.7%1.5%0.5%
79Georgia Southern9.6Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%7.077.0%14.7%7.2%
80Ohio9.5MACNR0.0%0.0%8.391.6%51.8%22.0%
81Virginia9.3ACCNR0.0%0.0%4.122.4%2.7%0.6%
82Wyoming8.9Mountain WestNR0.0%0.0%7.080.8%12.1%4.6%
83Coastal Carolina8.9Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%6.669.2%14.9%7.1%
84Utah State8.7Mountain WestNR0.0%0.0%6.466.6%11.1%4.2%
85UAB8.6AmericanNR0.0%0.0%5.652.3%6.7%2.7%
86Liberty8.5Conference USANR0.0%0.0%9.196.1%59.4%26.4%
87Georgia Tech8.3ACCNR0.0%0.0%4.118.2%0.3%0.1%
88Louisiana8.2Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%6.569.3%12.4%5.1%
89Navy8.1AmericanNR0.0%0.0%5.754.7%9.1%2.9%
90Northwestern7.5Big TenNR0.0%0.0%3.48.7%0.1%0.0%
91Arizona State7.3Pac-12NR0.0%0.0%3.20.0%0.1%0.0%
92Eastern Michigan6.9MACNR0.0%0.0%7.481.2%18.4%10.1%
93Vanderbilt6.3SECNR0.0%0.0%3.68.4%0.0%0.0%
94San Diego State6.0Mountain WestNR0.0%0.0%5.753.3%6.5%2.3%
95San Jose State5.7Mountain WestNR0.0%0.0%4.833.5%6.7%2.2%
96UNLV5.2Mountain WestNR0.0%0.0%6.366.0%8.2%2.4%
97Stanford5.2Pac-12NR0.0%0.0%3.27.5%0.0%0.0%
98Tulsa5.1AmericanNR0.0%0.0%5.651.8%4.6%1.4%
99Middle Tennessee5.0Conference USANR0.0%0.0%6.568.7%34.2%13.9%
100Jacksonville State4.1Conference USANR0.0%0.0%6.50.0%0.0%0.0%
101Ball State3.8MACNR0.0%0.0%5.549.5%11.1%5.6%
102Southern Miss3.7Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%5.139.7%10.3%3.3%
103Western Michigan3.7MACNR0.0%0.0%5.140.2%7.6%4.1%
104Florida Atlantic3.4AmericanNR0.0%0.0%4.426.3%3.9%1.2%
105Buffalo3.1MACNR0.0%0.0%4.836.4%15.8%6.6%
106Old Dominion2.6Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%4.627.3%4.0%1.6%
107USF2.6AmericanNR0.0%0.0%5.140.5%3.0%0.8%
108Kent State2.0MACNR0.0%0.0%5.141.0%15.0%5.2%
109Miami (OH)1.5MACNR0.0%0.0%5.753.3%10.5%4.0%
110North Texas1.4AmericanNR0.0%0.0%3.716.8%1.0%0.3%
111Central Michigan1.3MACNR0.0%0.0%4.732.4%6.1%3.1%
112Boston College1.2ACCNR0.0%0.0%3.37.8%0.1%0.0%
113Colorado1.2Pac-12NR0.0%0.0%3.810.1%0.0%0.0%
114UTEP1.0Conference USANR0.0%0.0%5.243.0%15.1%5.4%
115Colorado State1.0Mountain WestNR0.0%0.0%4.630.8%3.3%0.8%
116Texas State0.8Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%5.649.2%6.5%2.1%
117Rice-0.2AmericanNR0.0%0.0%5.037.1%1.2%0.4%
118Northern Illinois-0.3MACNR0.0%0.0%4.732.7%4.1%2.1%
119Sam Houston-0.7Conference USANR0.0%0.0%4.50.0%0.0%0.0%
120UConn-1.0FBS IndependentsNR0.0%0.0%4.424.2%0.0%0.0%
121Hawaii-1.6Mountain WestNR0.0%0.0%4.732.5%3.7%0.6%
122New Mexico State-2.1Conference USANR0.0%0.0%5.344.5%8.1%2.4%
123Louisiana Monroe-2.4Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%4.524.3%2.4%0.6%
124Bowling Green State-3.2MACNR0.0%0.0%3.918.1%4.3%1.4%
125Temple-3.3AmericanNR0.0%0.0%3.916.6%0.6%0.2%
126Louisiana Tech-4.9Conference USANR0.0%0.0%4.525.1%6.9%1.8%
127Nevada-6.3Mountain WestNR0.0%0.0%2.64.7%0.6%0.1%
128Charlotte-7.1AmericanNR0.0%0.0%2.74.2%0.2%0.0%
129Akron-7.5MACNR0.0%0.0%3.311.3%2.6%0.6%
130Arkansas State-8.7Sun BeltNR0.0%0.0%2.95.7%0.4%0.1%
131New Mexico-9.6Mountain WestNR0.0%0.0%3.411.0%0.1%0.0%
132FIU-13.0Conference USANR0.0%0.0%3.25.5%0.4%0.1%
133UMass-14.9FBS IndependentsNR0.0%0.0%3.02.5%0.0%0.0%
RankTeamMovelorConferenceProjected WinsConference Championship
1South Dakota State21.3MVFC9.847.3%
2Montana State17.6Big Sky8.527.4%
3North Dakota State17.0MVFC9.225.9%
4Incarnate Word14.7Southland9.789.5%
5UC Davis10.8Big Sky8.221.5%
6Weber State9.9Big Sky8.320.3%
7Montana9.9Big Sky8.612.2%
8Sacramento State9.3Big Sky8.110.1%
9Furman6.8Southern8.449.6%
10Idaho6.0Big Sky7.48.1%
11Southern Illinois5.5MVFC7.76.7%
12Northern Iowa5.1MVFC5.64.7%
13Youngstown State5.1MVFC7.17.9%
14North Dakota4.8MVFC7.24.5%
15Samford2.8Southern7.216.4%
16Austin Peay2.0UAC6.932.7%
17Southeast Missouri State1.9Big South-OVC7.845.2%
18William & Mary1.4CAA8.424.2%
19Holy Cross0.9Patriot7.866.0%
20Richmond0.7CAA6.816.9%
21Central Arkansas-0.1UAC6.422.8%
22Rhode Island-1.2CAA7.313.6%
23New Hampshire-1.5CAA7.212.9%
24Yale-2.1Ivy7.431.3%
25Southeastern Louisiana-2.2Southland6.89.2%
26Missouri State-2.5MVFC4.30.8%
27Illinois State-2.9MVFC7.01.4%
28South Dakota-2.9MVFC5.70.8%
29Princeton-3.5Ivy7.426.4%
30Mercer-3.8Southern6.911.1%
31Elon-3.8CAA5.57.2%
32Jackson State-4.0SWAC9.125.2%
33UT Martin-4.3Big South-OVC7.320.4%
34Delaware-4.6CAA7.112.8%
35Gardner-Webb-4.8Big South-OVC6.724.8%
36Abilene Christian-4.8UAC6.112.5%
37Stephen F. Austin-5.7UAC6.412.4%
38Chattanooga-5.8Southern5.68.2%
39Eastern Washington-6.5Big Sky4.00.3%
40Villanova-6.9CAA6.34.4%
41Western Carolina-7.4Southern6.211.1%
42Albany-8.1CAA5.73.4%
43Fordham-8.2Patriot8.226.8%
44Dartmouth-8.2Ivy6.013.6%
45Florida A&M-8.2SWAC9.346.9%
46Harvard-8.3Ivy5.611.1%
47Southern Utah-8.3UAC4.67.1%
48North Carolina Central-8.6MEAC7.945.4%
49Campbell-8.8CAA5.10.9%
50Eastern Kentucky-9.1UAC4.17.2%
51Northern Arizona-9.3Big Sky3.10.0%
52Penn-9.4Ivy6.29.5%
53Kennesaw State-10.0FCS Independents5.60.0%
54Columbia-10.6Ivy5.96.7%
55Monmouth-10.7CAA5.82.5%
56Tarleton-11.5UAC5.94.0%
57Saint Francis (PA)-11.7NEC5.847.7%
58Howard-12.1MEAC6.838.6%
59Towson-12.2CAA3.90.2%
60Maine-12.5CAA4.00.7%
61Portland State-12.9Big Sky4.10.1%
62East Tennessee State-13.1Southern4.31.4%
63Wofford-13.5Southern4.12.1%
64St. Thomas-14.6Pioneer7.535.6%
65Bryant-15.5Big South-OVC5.14.6%
66North Carolina A&T-16.1CAA3.30.3%
67North Alabama-16.7UAC3.30.3%
68Indiana State-17.5MVFC2.00.0%
69Duquesne-17.5NEC5.822.2%
70Lindenwood-17.6Big South-OVC4.71.0%
71Utah Tech-17.6UAC2.11.1%
72Dayton-18.4Pioneer7.622.1%
73Cornell-18.7Ivy4.11.1%
74Nicholls-18.7Southland3.50.4%
75Butler-19.6Pioneer7.316.4%
76Charleston Southern-19.9Big South-OVC4.11.6%
77Stony Brook-20.0CAA2.10.0%
78Morgan State-20.2MEAC4.910.4%
79Tennessee State-20.3Big South-OVC5.31.1%
80Southern-20.3SWAC5.78.4%
81Lafayette-20.6Patriot4.63.3%
82McNeese-20.7Southland4.00.4%
83The Citadel-20.9Southern2.50.2%
84Cal Poly-20.9Big Sky3.00.0%
85Merrimack-21.0NEC5.312.2%
86Alcorn State-21.8SWAC5.26.4%
87Western Illinois-22.0MVFC1.40.0%
88Prairie View A&M-22.3SWAC5.66.6%
89Northern Colorado-22.4Big Sky1.50.0%
90Tennessee Tech-22.4Big South-OVC3.00.7%
91Northwestern State-22.8Southland3.40.2%
92Alabama A&M-22.9SWAC5.92.2%
93Brown-23.1Ivy2.30.3%
94Texas A&M-Commerce-23.2Southland2.70.1%
95Idaho State-23.3Big Sky1.10.0%
96Eastern Illinois-23.3Big South-OVC4.00.6%
97LIU-23.7NEC3.98.4%
98Hampton-24.3CAA2.50.0%
99Lehigh-24.3Patriot4.01.6%
100VMI-24.5Southern2.30.0%
101Murray State-25.2MVFC1.70.0%
102Davidson-25.6Pioneer5.68.8%
103Lamar-25.6Southland3.20.1%
104Central Connecticut State-25.7NEC4.72.0%
105San Diego-25.8Pioneer4.78.4%
106South Carolina State-26.2MEAC3.73.5%
107Bucknell-26.2Patriot4.20.9%
108Bethune-Cookman-26.3SWAC4.41.0%
109Colgate-26.6Patriot2.60.8%
110Texas Southern-27.0SWAC3.30.5%
111Alabama State-27.5SWAC4.80.4%
112Georgetown-27.8Patriot4.60.6%
113Stonehill-28.3NEC3.94.9%
114Sacred Heart-29.0NEC2.82.5%
115Robert Morris-29.3Big South-OVC3.40.1%
116Grambling State-29.7SWAC3.91.4%
117Houston Christian-29.8Southland3.00.0%
118Arkansas-Pine Bluff-30.4SWAC3.30.9%
119Stetson-30.5Pioneer5.73.0%
120Drake-30.8Pioneer3.83.0%
121Norfolk State-31.3MEAC2.91.1%
122Valparaiso-32.5Pioneer3.61.2%
123Morehead State-32.8Pioneer4.01.1%
124Delaware State-33.1MEAC2.31.0%
125Mississippi Valley State-35.4SWAC2.10.0%
126Marist-36.9Pioneer2.90.5%
127Wagner-38.4NEC1.80.2%
128Presbyterian-46.1Pioneer2.20.0%
The Barking Crow's resident numbers man. Was asked to do NIT Bracketology in 2018 and never looked back. Fields inquiries on Twitter: @joestunardi.
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