Our bowl projections are live for Week 3, and we’ve included them below, with our full ratings and probabilities entering tonight below those (for archival purposes). Observations on the bowl front:
Alabama’s loss shook things up, of course, but so did Penn State passing Ohio State and Michigan in our model ’s evaluation of the Big Ten. We’ve got the four likeliest playoff teams now going Georgia, Penn State, Florida State, Michigan.
The addition of Florida State to the playoff means a different ACC team gets to play in the Orange Bowl. Our model still has Louisville having the second-best season in that league, which puts the Cards in Miami, playing Ohio State.
The model still has Kansas State as the Big 12 favorite, numerically hung up on Texas’s unimpressive performance against Rice. One thing happening here—and this is happening in the Pac-12 as well—is that the Big 12 has a clump of possible champions who, averaged out, all beat each other. In reality, the best team in each of those leagues will almost definitely wind up in the top ten, and very well could make the Playoff. We rely on the average for these, and at the moment, it averages out to a great, big split between the five Pac-12 teams and between K-State, Texas, and Oklahoma in the Big 12.
Even with Fresno State’s near-loss to Eastern Washington, they finish with the best average ranking in our simulations among Group of Five schools. I would bet on the AAC champion taking this spot instead, but as with the Pac-12 and Big 12, there’s some cannibalization which happens there if everyone plays to the average. That said, it’s possible Eastern Washington is going to bounce back and be a solid FCS team again. The Big Sky is really deep, which may have artificially deflated their record last year. Ultimately, if Fresno State goes 12–1 or 13–0, they’re probably in the New Year’s Six, and if they don’t, the likeliest alternative is the AAC champion takes it (more likely Tulane than anyone else).
Teams joining the bowl picture this week: Kansas, Utah State, South Carolina, Ball State, Texas State, West Virginia, and Florida.
Teams leaving the bowl picture this week: Iowa State, New Mexico State, UTEP, Nebraska, Western Michigan, Buffalo, Houston.
We included four teams who are less than 50% likely to make a bowl, to ensure that we filled our 82 FBS bowl slots. The average number of bowl-eligible teams in our simulations is currently 78.3, but that’ll wobble for a while yet, so we aren’t planning to look into APR for a few more weeks.
Date Bowl Team 1 Team 2 T1 Conference T2 Conference 1/1/24 Sugar Bowl (CFP Semifinal) Georgia Michigan SEC Big Ten 1/1/24 Rose Bowl (CFP Semifinal) Penn State Florida State Big Ten ACC 1/1/24 Fiesta Bowl Tennessee USC SEC Pac-12 1/1/24 ReliaQuest Bowl LSU Minnesota SEC Big Ten 1/1/24 Citrus Bowl Mississippi Iowa SEC Big Ten 12/30/23 Orange Bowl Louisville Ohio State ACC Big Ten 12/30/23 Peach Bowl Alabama Notre Dame SEC FBS Independents 12/30/23 Music City Bowl Illinois South Carolina Big Ten SEC 12/30/23 Arizona Bowl Eastern Michigan Utah State MAC Mountain West 12/29/23 Cotton Bowl Kansas State Fresno State Big 12 Mountain West 12/29/23 Gator Bowl Wake Forest Kentucky ACC SEC 12/29/23 Sun Bowl Syracuse Utah ACC Pac-12 12/29/23 Liberty Bowl Oklahoma State Arkansas Big 12 SEC 12/28/23 Pinstripe Bowl Duke Maryland ACC Big Ten 12/28/23 Pop-Tarts Bowl North Carolina Oklahoma ACC Big 12 12/28/23 Fenway Bowl NC State Tulane ACC AAC 12/28/23 Alamo Bowl Texas Oregon State Big 12 Pac-12 12/27/23 Duke’s Mayo Bowl Clemson Mississippi State ACC SEC 12/27/23 Military Bowl Pitt Memphis ACC AAC 12/27/23 Holiday Bowl Oregon Miami (FL) Pac-12 ACC 12/27/23 Texas Bowl Cincinnati Auburn Big 12 SEC 12/26/23 Guaranteed Rate Bowl TCU Michigan State Big 12 Big Ten 12/26/23 Quick Lane Bowl Toledo Purdue MAC Big Ten 12/26/23 First Responder Bowl Texas Tech Navy Big 12 AAC 12/23/23 Hawaii Bowl UNLV SMU Mountain West AAC 12/23/23 Armed Forces Bowl Kansas Coastal Carolina Big 12 Sun Belt 12/23/23 68 Ventures Bowl Army Georgia Southern FBS Independents Sun Belt 12/23/23 Birmingham Bowl UTSA Texas A&M AAC SEC 12/23/23 Las Vegas Bowl Wisconsin Washington Big Ten Pac-12 12/23/23 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Ohio Wyoming MAC Mountain West 12/23/23 Camellia Bowl Ball State Troy MAC Sun Belt 12/22/23 Gasparilla Bowl East Carolina Florida AAC SEC 12/21/23 Boca Raton Bowl San Diego State South Alabama Mountain West Sun Belt 12/19/23 Frisco Bowl Tulsa Texas State AAC Sun Belt 12/18/23 Myrtle Beach Bowl Middle Tennessee Appalachian State Conference USA Sun Belt 12/16/23 Independence Bowl UCF Washington State Big 12 Pac-12 12/16/23 New Orleans Bowl Liberty Marshall Conference USA Sun Belt 12/16/23 Celebration Bowl North Carolina Central Florida A&M MEAC SWAC 12/16/23 LA Bowl Air Force UCLA Mountain West Pac-12 12/16/23 New Mexico Bowl Louisiana Boise State Sun Belt Mountain West 12/16/23 Bahamas Bowl Western Kentucky Miami (OH) Conference USA MAC 12/16/23 Cure Bowl UAB Georgia State AAC Sun Belt
Rank Team Movelor Conference Average Final CFP Ranking Make Playoff National Championship Expected Wins Bowl Eligibility Make Conference Championship Win Conference 1 Georgia 44.2 SEC 6 55.1% 21.9% 11.6 100.0% 69.1% 43.7% 3 Penn State 40.7 Big Ten 9 36.7% 11.1% 10.7 100.0% 36.5% 28.7% 7 Florida State 34.6 ACC 9 35.6% 7.8% 10.9 99.9% 63.1% 43.9% 4 Michigan 39.3 Big Ten 10 30.8% 8.9% 10.4 99.8% 30.2% 23.8% 5 Ohio State 39.1 Big Ten 11 27.8% 8.1% 10.0 99.4% 31.1% 24.2% 2 Alabama 41.1 SEC 12 19.1% 4.9% 9.9 99.4% 62.3% 29.2% 6 Tennessee 38.2 SEC 12 20.9% 5.8% 10.2 99.9% 27.0% 16.0% 11 Notre Dame 32.7 FBS Independents 14 17.2% 2.8% 9.5 99.1% 0.0% 0.0% 9 Oregon State 33.2 Pac-12 15 18.1% 3.8% 9.9 99.4% 39.3% 20.7% 10 Oregon 32.7 Pac-12 15 17.6% 3.5% 9.7 99.5% 35.1% 18.8% 13 USC 32.2 Pac-12 16 16.1% 3.3% 9.6 99.3% 44.1% 21.4% 8 Kansas State 34.3 Big 12 17 17.6% 3.5% 10.1 98.8% 49.9% 30.2% 12 Utah 32.5 Pac-12 17 13.6% 2.6% 9.4 99.3% 29.9% 16.3% 15 Texas 31.4 Big 12 17 14.2% 2.5% 9.4 97.6% 34.7% 20.6% 14 Washington 32.2 Pac-12 18 13.4% 2.8% 9.1 97.4% 31.5% 16.4% 16 Oklahoma 29.3 Big 12 22 9.3% 1.5% 9.2 96.5% 31.9% 15.5% 19 Mississippi 28.2 SEC 23 4.0% 0.6% 8.2 95.5% 7.7% 2.4% 22 Louisville 26.0 ACC NR 6.8% 0.9% 9.5 97.8% 52.7% 20.9% 18 Iowa 28.8 Big Ten NR 4.4% 0.7% 9.2 97.7% 41.3% 10.7% 39 Syracuse 21.1 ACC NR 1.9% 0.2% 7.7 86.2% 12.1% 5.5% 17 LSU 29.2 SEC NR 1.9% 0.4% 7.7 88.0% 15.1% 4.3% 32 Cincinnati 22.3 Big 12 NR 1.8% 0.2% 8.2 89.1% 17.7% 6.1% 30 Washington State 22.9 Pac-12 NR 1.8% 0.3% 8.2 95.0% 9.4% 3.0% 20 Clemson 26.7 ACC NR 1.7% 0.3% 7.7 86.9% 12.8% 7.0% 23 Minnesota 25.5 Big Ten NR 1.5% 0.2% 7.6 85.6% 18.2% 4.2% 45 North Carolina 20.0 ACC NR 1.4% 0.1% 8.0 89.3% 13.5% 5.2% 31 UCLA 22.4 Pac-12 NR 1.4% 0.2% 8.1 94.7% 8.2% 2.7% 46 Duke 19.9 ACC NR 1.1% 0.1% 7.4 83.9% 10.0% 3.9% 28 Arkansas 23.4 SEC NR 0.7% 0.1% 7.5 86.6% 4.3% 1.0% 48 Wake Forest 19.4 ACC NR 0.7% 0.1% 7.0 77.7% 7.5% 3.1% 57 Miami (FL) 16.2 ACC NR 0.7% 0.1% 7.7 89.9% 6.2% 2.2% 40 Oklahoma State 20.7 Big 12 NR 0.7% 0.2% 7.3 79.2% 9.6% 3.4% 26 Michigan State 23.9 Big Ten NR 0.6% 0.1% 6.4 67.5% 1.5% 0.9% 27 Mississippi State 23.5 SEC NR 0.6% 0.1% 7.4 82.9% 5.8% 1.2% 52 Kansas 18.8 Big 12 NR 0.5% 0.1% 6.5 67.4% 4.4% 1.8% 51 UCF 18.8 Big 12 NR 0.4% 0.1% 6.7 72.8% 4.0% 1.4% 35 Auburn 21.8 SEC NR 0.4% 0.1% 7.0 80.5% 2.9% 0.7% 43 Pitt 20.3 ACC NR 0.3% 0.1% 5.9 56.4% 12.2% 5.5% 29 Fresno State 22.9 Mountain West NR 0.3% 0.0% 10.9 99.8% 69.1% 44.1% 36 Kentucky 21.7 SEC NR 0.3% 0.0% 6.7 75.4% 1.1% 0.4% 21 TCU 26.2 Big 12 NR 0.3% 0.1% 7.0 76.8% 14.9% 7.7% 33 Wisconsin 22.3 Big Ten NR 0.2% 0.0% 6.8 75.3% 17.3% 2.8% 50 Air Force 19.0 Mountain West NR 0.2% 0.0% 9.8 98.0% 54.3% 26.8% 44 Iowa State 20.1 Big 12 NR 0.1% 0.0% 5.3 44.5% 4.7% 1.9% 49 Maryland 19.2 Big Ten NR 0.1% 0.0% 6.5 71.4% 0.7% 0.4% 34 Illinois 21.9 Big Ten NR 0.1% 0.0% 6.6 70.9% 13.4% 2.6% 53 Memphis 18.7 American NR 0.1% 0.0% 9.5 97.5% 40.6% 21.6% 54 West Virginia 18.4 Big 12 NR 0.1% 0.0% 5.4 47.1% 5.8% 1.8% 24 Texas Tech 24.4 Big 12 NR 0.0% 0.0% 6.0 59.6% 13.7% 6.1% 41 Florida 20.6 SEC NR 0.0% 0.0% 5.5 47.1% 1.2% 0.3% 58 Arizona 15.7 Pac-12 NR 0.0% 0.0% 5.3 44.4% 1.9% 0.5% 60 NC State 15.1 ACC NR 0.0% 0.0% 6.0 57.6% 5.4% 1.6% 62 BYU 14.8 Big 12 NR 0.0% 0.0% 4.9 35.2% 1.4% 0.4% 42 Texas A&M 20.4 SEC NR 0.0% 0.0% 5.7 52.1% 1.9% 0.4% 61 Missouri 15.0 SEC NR 0.0% 0.0% 5.0 35.7% 0.4% 0.1% 38 South Carolina 21.1 SEC NR 0.0% 0.0% 6.0 61.5% 1.2% 0.4% 70 Marshall 13.7 Sun Belt NR 0.0% 0.0% 8.1 87.8% 24.8% 14.8% 71 Western Kentucky 13.5 Conference USA NR 0.0% 0.0% 9.2 96.3% 75.9% 50.0% 47 Purdue 19.6 Big Ten NR 0.0% 0.0% 5.3 45.6% 6.4% 1.1% 77 Rutgers 10.1 Big Ten NR 0.0% 0.0% 4.9 30.5% 0.0% 0.0% 25 Tulane 24.0 American NR 0.0% 0.0% 9.7 99.2% 54.1% 37.0% 37 Baylor 21.3 Big 12 NR 0.0% 0.0% 5.2 42.3% 6.5% 2.8% 55 Nebraska 18.1 Big Ten NR 0.0% 0.0% 5.2 42.7% 3.3% 0.6% 56 James Madison 17.1 Sun Belt NR 0.0% 0.0% 8.7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 59 SMU 15.2 American NR 0.0% 0.0% 8.0 93.0% 30.3% 12.4% 63 Boise State 14.7 Mountain West NR 0.0% 0.0% 6.4 67.0% 24.5% 11.9% 64 Toledo 14.5 MAC NR 0.0% 0.0% 9.3 96.7% 52.8% 35.3% 65 East Carolina 14.4 American NR 0.0% 0.0% 6.6 70.9% 20.9% 9.3% 66 California 14.4 Pac-12 NR 0.0% 0.0% 4.4 23.2% 0.5% 0.2% 67 Army 14.4 FBS Independents NR 0.0% 0.0% 6.2 67.0% 0.0% 0.0% 68 Troy 14.3 Sun Belt NR 0.0% 0.0% 7.8 84.4% 43.1% 22.2% 69 UTSA 14.0 American NR 0.0% 0.0% 7.1 79.8% 23.7% 10.0% 72 Houston 13.3 Big 12 NR 0.0% 0.0% 4.3 23.4% 1.0% 0.3% 73 Appalachian State 12.6 Sun Belt NR 0.0% 0.0% 7.0 74.9% 25.2% 14.3% 74 Indiana 12.0 Big Ten NR 0.0% 0.0% 4.1 18.9% 0.0% 0.0% 75 Georgia State 11.7 Sun Belt NR 0.0% 0.0% 7.2 77.7% 16.5% 9.9% 76 South Alabama 11.0 Sun Belt NR 0.0% 0.0% 6.9 76.6% 24.9% 11.7% 78 Virginia Tech 9.7 ACC NR 0.0% 0.0% 4.4 26.7% 1.5% 0.5% 79 Georgia Southern 9.6 Sun Belt NR 0.0% 0.0% 7.0 77.0% 14.7% 7.2% 80 Ohio 9.5 MAC NR 0.0% 0.0% 8.3 91.6% 51.8% 22.0% 81 Virginia 9.3 ACC NR 0.0% 0.0% 4.1 22.4% 2.7% 0.6% 82 Wyoming 8.9 Mountain West NR 0.0% 0.0% 7.0 80.8% 12.1% 4.6% 83 Coastal Carolina 8.9 Sun Belt NR 0.0% 0.0% 6.6 69.2% 14.9% 7.1% 84 Utah State 8.7 Mountain West NR 0.0% 0.0% 6.4 66.6% 11.1% 4.2% 85 UAB 8.6 American NR 0.0% 0.0% 5.6 52.3% 6.7% 2.7% 86 Liberty 8.5 Conference USA NR 0.0% 0.0% 9.1 96.1% 59.4% 26.4% 87 Georgia Tech 8.3 ACC NR 0.0% 0.0% 4.1 18.2% 0.3% 0.1% 88 Louisiana 8.2 Sun Belt NR 0.0% 0.0% 6.5 69.3% 12.4% 5.1% 89 Navy 8.1 American NR 0.0% 0.0% 5.7 54.7% 9.1% 2.9% 90 Northwestern 7.5 Big Ten NR 0.0% 0.0% 3.4 8.7% 0.1% 0.0% 91 Arizona State 7.3 Pac-12 NR 0.0% 0.0% 3.2 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 92 Eastern Michigan 6.9 MAC NR 0.0% 0.0% 7.4 81.2% 18.4% 10.1% 93 Vanderbilt 6.3 SEC NR 0.0% 0.0% 3.6 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 94 San Diego State 6.0 Mountain West NR 0.0% 0.0% 5.7 53.3% 6.5% 2.3% 95 San Jose State 5.7 Mountain West NR 0.0% 0.0% 4.8 33.5% 6.7% 2.2% 96 UNLV 5.2 Mountain West NR 0.0% 0.0% 6.3 66.0% 8.2% 2.4% 97 Stanford 5.2 Pac-12 NR 0.0% 0.0% 3.2 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 98 Tulsa 5.1 American NR 0.0% 0.0% 5.6 51.8% 4.6% 1.4% 99 Middle Tennessee 5.0 Conference USA NR 0.0% 0.0% 6.5 68.7% 34.2% 13.9% 100 Jacksonville State 4.1 Conference USA NR 0.0% 0.0% 6.5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 101 Ball State 3.8 MAC NR 0.0% 0.0% 5.5 49.5% 11.1% 5.6% 102 Southern Miss 3.7 Sun Belt NR 0.0% 0.0% 5.1 39.7% 10.3% 3.3% 103 Western Michigan 3.7 MAC NR 0.0% 0.0% 5.1 40.2% 7.6% 4.1% 104 Florida Atlantic 3.4 American NR 0.0% 0.0% 4.4 26.3% 3.9% 1.2% 105 Buffalo 3.1 MAC NR 0.0% 0.0% 4.8 36.4% 15.8% 6.6% 106 Old Dominion 2.6 Sun Belt NR 0.0% 0.0% 4.6 27.3% 4.0% 1.6% 107 USF 2.6 American NR 0.0% 0.0% 5.1 40.5% 3.0% 0.8% 108 Kent State 2.0 MAC NR 0.0% 0.0% 5.1 41.0% 15.0% 5.2% 109 Miami (OH) 1.5 MAC NR 0.0% 0.0% 5.7 53.3% 10.5% 4.0% 110 North Texas 1.4 American NR 0.0% 0.0% 3.7 16.8% 1.0% 0.3% 111 Central Michigan 1.3 MAC NR 0.0% 0.0% 4.7 32.4% 6.1% 3.1% 112 Boston College 1.2 ACC NR 0.0% 0.0% 3.3 7.8% 0.1% 0.0% 113 Colorado 1.2 Pac-12 NR 0.0% 0.0% 3.8 10.1% 0.0% 0.0% 114 UTEP 1.0 Conference USA NR 0.0% 0.0% 5.2 43.0% 15.1% 5.4% 115 Colorado State 1.0 Mountain West NR 0.0% 0.0% 4.6 30.8% 3.3% 0.8% 116 Texas State 0.8 Sun Belt NR 0.0% 0.0% 5.6 49.2% 6.5% 2.1% 117 Rice -0.2 American NR 0.0% 0.0% 5.0 37.1% 1.2% 0.4% 118 Northern Illinois -0.3 MAC NR 0.0% 0.0% 4.7 32.7% 4.1% 2.1% 119 Sam Houston -0.7 Conference USA NR 0.0% 0.0% 4.5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 120 UConn -1.0 FBS Independents NR 0.0% 0.0% 4.4 24.2% 0.0% 0.0% 121 Hawaii -1.6 Mountain West NR 0.0% 0.0% 4.7 32.5% 3.7% 0.6% 122 New Mexico State -2.1 Conference USA NR 0.0% 0.0% 5.3 44.5% 8.1% 2.4% 123 Louisiana Monroe -2.4 Sun Belt NR 0.0% 0.0% 4.5 24.3% 2.4% 0.6% 124 Bowling Green State -3.2 MAC NR 0.0% 0.0% 3.9 18.1% 4.3% 1.4% 125 Temple -3.3 American NR 0.0% 0.0% 3.9 16.6% 0.6% 0.2% 126 Louisiana Tech -4.9 Conference USA NR 0.0% 0.0% 4.5 25.1% 6.9% 1.8% 127 Nevada -6.3 Mountain West NR 0.0% 0.0% 2.6 4.7% 0.6% 0.1% 128 Charlotte -7.1 American NR 0.0% 0.0% 2.7 4.2% 0.2% 0.0% 129 Akron -7.5 MAC NR 0.0% 0.0% 3.3 11.3% 2.6% 0.6% 130 Arkansas State -8.7 Sun Belt NR 0.0% 0.0% 2.9 5.7% 0.4% 0.1% 131 New Mexico -9.6 Mountain West NR 0.0% 0.0% 3.4 11.0% 0.1% 0.0% 132 FIU -13.0 Conference USA NR 0.0% 0.0% 3.2 5.5% 0.4% 0.1% 133 UMass -14.9 FBS Independents NR 0.0% 0.0% 3.0 2.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Rank Team Movelor Conference Projected Wins Conference Championship 1 South Dakota State 21.3 MVFC 9.8 47.3% 2 Montana State 17.6 Big Sky 8.5 27.4% 3 North Dakota State 17.0 MVFC 9.2 25.9% 4 Incarnate Word 14.7 Southland 9.7 89.5% 5 UC Davis 10.8 Big Sky 8.2 21.5% 6 Weber State 9.9 Big Sky 8.3 20.3% 7 Montana 9.9 Big Sky 8.6 12.2% 8 Sacramento State 9.3 Big Sky 8.1 10.1% 9 Furman 6.8 Southern 8.4 49.6% 10 Idaho 6.0 Big Sky 7.4 8.1% 11 Southern Illinois 5.5 MVFC 7.7 6.7% 12 Northern Iowa 5.1 MVFC 5.6 4.7% 13 Youngstown State 5.1 MVFC 7.1 7.9% 14 North Dakota 4.8 MVFC 7.2 4.5% 15 Samford 2.8 Southern 7.2 16.4% 16 Austin Peay 2.0 UAC 6.9 32.7% 17 Southeast Missouri State 1.9 Big South-OVC 7.8 45.2% 18 William & Mary 1.4 CAA 8.4 24.2% 19 Holy Cross 0.9 Patriot 7.8 66.0% 20 Richmond 0.7 CAA 6.8 16.9% 21 Central Arkansas -0.1 UAC 6.4 22.8% 22 Rhode Island -1.2 CAA 7.3 13.6% 23 New Hampshire -1.5 CAA 7.2 12.9% 24 Yale -2.1 Ivy 7.4 31.3% 25 Southeastern Louisiana -2.2 Southland 6.8 9.2% 26 Missouri State -2.5 MVFC 4.3 0.8% 27 Illinois State -2.9 MVFC 7.0 1.4% 28 South Dakota -2.9 MVFC 5.7 0.8% 29 Princeton -3.5 Ivy 7.4 26.4% 30 Mercer -3.8 Southern 6.9 11.1% 31 Elon -3.8 CAA 5.5 7.2% 32 Jackson State -4.0 SWAC 9.1 25.2% 33 UT Martin -4.3 Big South-OVC 7.3 20.4% 34 Delaware -4.6 CAA 7.1 12.8% 35 Gardner-Webb -4.8 Big South-OVC 6.7 24.8% 36 Abilene Christian -4.8 UAC 6.1 12.5% 37 Stephen F. Austin -5.7 UAC 6.4 12.4% 38 Chattanooga -5.8 Southern 5.6 8.2% 39 Eastern Washington -6.5 Big Sky 4.0 0.3% 40 Villanova -6.9 CAA 6.3 4.4% 41 Western Carolina -7.4 Southern 6.2 11.1% 42 Albany -8.1 CAA 5.7 3.4% 43 Fordham -8.2 Patriot 8.2 26.8% 44 Dartmouth -8.2 Ivy 6.0 13.6% 45 Florida A&M -8.2 SWAC 9.3 46.9% 46 Harvard -8.3 Ivy 5.6 11.1% 47 Southern Utah -8.3 UAC 4.6 7.1% 48 North Carolina Central -8.6 MEAC 7.9 45.4% 49 Campbell -8.8 CAA 5.1 0.9% 50 Eastern Kentucky -9.1 UAC 4.1 7.2% 51 Northern Arizona -9.3 Big Sky 3.1 0.0% 52 Penn -9.4 Ivy 6.2 9.5% 53 Kennesaw State -10.0 FCS Independents 5.6 0.0% 54 Columbia -10.6 Ivy 5.9 6.7% 55 Monmouth -10.7 CAA 5.8 2.5% 56 Tarleton -11.5 UAC 5.9 4.0% 57 Saint Francis (PA) -11.7 NEC 5.8 47.7% 58 Howard -12.1 MEAC 6.8 38.6% 59 Towson -12.2 CAA 3.9 0.2% 60 Maine -12.5 CAA 4.0 0.7% 61 Portland State -12.9 Big Sky 4.1 0.1% 62 East Tennessee State -13.1 Southern 4.3 1.4% 63 Wofford -13.5 Southern 4.1 2.1% 64 St. Thomas -14.6 Pioneer 7.5 35.6% 65 Bryant -15.5 Big South-OVC 5.1 4.6% 66 North Carolina A&T -16.1 CAA 3.3 0.3% 67 North Alabama -16.7 UAC 3.3 0.3% 68 Indiana State -17.5 MVFC 2.0 0.0% 69 Duquesne -17.5 NEC 5.8 22.2% 70 Lindenwood -17.6 Big South-OVC 4.7 1.0% 71 Utah Tech -17.6 UAC 2.1 1.1% 72 Dayton -18.4 Pioneer 7.6 22.1% 73 Cornell -18.7 Ivy 4.1 1.1% 74 Nicholls -18.7 Southland 3.5 0.4% 75 Butler -19.6 Pioneer 7.3 16.4% 76 Charleston Southern -19.9 Big South-OVC 4.1 1.6% 77 Stony Brook -20.0 CAA 2.1 0.0% 78 Morgan State -20.2 MEAC 4.9 10.4% 79 Tennessee State -20.3 Big South-OVC 5.3 1.1% 80 Southern -20.3 SWAC 5.7 8.4% 81 Lafayette -20.6 Patriot 4.6 3.3% 82 McNeese -20.7 Southland 4.0 0.4% 83 The Citadel -20.9 Southern 2.5 0.2% 84 Cal Poly -20.9 Big Sky 3.0 0.0% 85 Merrimack -21.0 NEC 5.3 12.2% 86 Alcorn State -21.8 SWAC 5.2 6.4% 87 Western Illinois -22.0 MVFC 1.4 0.0% 88 Prairie View A&M -22.3 SWAC 5.6 6.6% 89 Northern Colorado -22.4 Big Sky 1.5 0.0% 90 Tennessee Tech -22.4 Big South-OVC 3.0 0.7% 91 Northwestern State -22.8 Southland 3.4 0.2% 92 Alabama A&M -22.9 SWAC 5.9 2.2% 93 Brown -23.1 Ivy 2.3 0.3% 94 Texas A&M-Commerce -23.2 Southland 2.7 0.1% 95 Idaho State -23.3 Big Sky 1.1 0.0% 96 Eastern Illinois -23.3 Big South-OVC 4.0 0.6% 97 LIU -23.7 NEC 3.9 8.4% 98 Hampton -24.3 CAA 2.5 0.0% 99 Lehigh -24.3 Patriot 4.0 1.6% 100 VMI -24.5 Southern 2.3 0.0% 101 Murray State -25.2 MVFC 1.7 0.0% 102 Davidson -25.6 Pioneer 5.6 8.8% 103 Lamar -25.6 Southland 3.2 0.1% 104 Central Connecticut State -25.7 NEC 4.7 2.0% 105 San Diego -25.8 Pioneer 4.7 8.4% 106 South Carolina State -26.2 MEAC 3.7 3.5% 107 Bucknell -26.2 Patriot 4.2 0.9% 108 Bethune-Cookman -26.3 SWAC 4.4 1.0% 109 Colgate -26.6 Patriot 2.6 0.8% 110 Texas Southern -27.0 SWAC 3.3 0.5% 111 Alabama State -27.5 SWAC 4.8 0.4% 112 Georgetown -27.8 Patriot 4.6 0.6% 113 Stonehill -28.3 NEC 3.9 4.9% 114 Sacred Heart -29.0 NEC 2.8 2.5% 115 Robert Morris -29.3 Big South-OVC 3.4 0.1% 116 Grambling State -29.7 SWAC 3.9 1.4% 117 Houston Christian -29.8 Southland 3.0 0.0% 118 Arkansas-Pine Bluff -30.4 SWAC 3.3 0.9% 119 Stetson -30.5 Pioneer 5.7 3.0% 120 Drake -30.8 Pioneer 3.8 3.0% 121 Norfolk State -31.3 MEAC 2.9 1.1% 122 Valparaiso -32.5 Pioneer 3.6 1.2% 123 Morehead State -32.8 Pioneer 4.0 1.1% 124 Delaware State -33.1 MEAC 2.3 1.0% 125 Mississippi Valley State -35.4 SWAC 2.1 0.0% 126 Marist -36.9 Pioneer 2.9 0.5% 127 Wagner -38.4 NEC 1.8 0.2% 128 Presbyterian -46.1 Pioneer 2.2 0.0%
