Movelor (Margin of victory-based elo with recruiting) is The Barking Crow’s college football rating system, used to determine our bowl projections and College Football Playoff probabilities. Last year, it was roughly 0.8 points less accurate per game than the average closing spread in betting markets.
Movelor is just one part of our college football model. It’s the tool we use to rate teams, measuring the expected point spread were they to meet on a neutral field. Using that point spread, we calculate win probabilities. Using those win probabilities and making a few adjustments along the way, we simulate the college football season ten thousand times a day. What you can access from this page is not only how good Movelor indicates every college football team is, but each team’s chance of winning its conference, making the playoff, and more.
Here are the links to features which are live:
- College Football Playoff Bracketology
- College Football Playoff Probabilities
- Full FBS/FCS Movelor Ratings
- Weekly Picks
Here are the pages which are coming very soon:
- Bowl Projections
Here are the features which are a little more distant, but remain in progress:
- FCS Playoff Probabilities
- FCS Bracketology
Finally, this link will take you to an explanation of how the whole model works.
Thanks for being here.
Bark.