There’s a long way to go this offseason. We’ve had a few signings—Kevin Gausman and Marcus Stroman accepted those offers, Charlie Morton and Drew Smyly went to Atlanta, James McCann/Mike Minor/Carlos Santana all signed. Trevor May to the Mets. David Dahl to the Rangers. Robbie Ray, way back when.
By the FanGraphs tracker, eighteen noteworthy-enough free agents have signed. By the FanGraphs tracker, if you ignore the players projected for negative WAR (*grimace emoji*), the average annual value—compared to projected WAR—comes out to $5.5M/WAR so far. That’s just a fourteen-player sample, and it doesn’t account for future value (five of the fourteen players have multi-year deals), but it’s at least within range of $8M/WAR, the general price for wins in recent years.
In short, this offseason might be unusual. But we don’t know that yet.
